Parameter estimation for discretely observed linear birth-and-death processes.

Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, as the likelihood can become numerically unstable when data arise from the most common sampling schemes, such as annual population censuses. A further difficulty arises when the discrete observations are not equi-spaced, for example, when census data are unavailable for some years. We present two approaches to estimating the birth, death, and growth rates of a discretely observed linear birth-and-death process: via an embedded Galton-Watson process and by maximizing a saddlepoint approximation to the likelihood. We study asymptotic properties of the estimators, compare them on numerical examples, and apply the methodology to data on monitored populations.

Dynamic fragmentation of a ring: predictable fragment mass distributions.

We employ a finite element framework, coupled to cohesive elements, to model material decohesion of a uniformly expanding ring. Our study focuses on the average fragment mass, the distribution of fragment masses, and the heaviest fragments. The computed fragment mass distributions are best captured by generalized gamma distributions, regardless of the model parameters. However, the distribution of the heaviest fragments depends on toughness, specimen size, and loading rate.

A Laplace mixture model for identification of differential expression in microarray experiments.

Microarrays have become an important tool for studying the molecular basis of complex disease traits and fundamental biological processes. A common purpose of microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed under two conditions, such as treatment versus control or wild type versus knockout. We introduce a Laplace mixture model as a long-tailed alternative to the normal distribution when identifying differentially expressed genes in microarray experiments, and provide an extension to asymmetric over- or underexpression. This model permits greater flexibility than models in current use as it has the potential, at least with sufficient data, to accommodate both whole genome and restricted coverage arrays. We also propose likelihood approaches to hyperparameter estimation which are equally applicable in the Normal mixture case. The Laplace model appears to give some improvement in fit to data, though simulation studies show that our method performs similarly to several other statistical approaches to the problem of identification of differential expression.

The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents (Part I): an approach using Bayesian networks.

The forensic investigation of the origin and cause of a fire incident is a particularly demanding area of expertise. As the available evidence is often incomplete or vague, uncertainty is a key element. The present study is an attempt to approach this through the use of Bayesian networks, which have been found useful in assisting human reasoning in a variety of disciplines in which uncertainty plays a central role. The present paper describes the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) and its use for drawing inferences about propositions of interest, based upon a single, possibly non replicable item of evidence: detected residual quantities of a flammable liquid in fire debris.

The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents. Part II. Practical examples of the use of Bayesian networks.

This paper extends a previous discussion of the use of Bayesian networks for evaluating evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents. Bayesian networks are proposed for two casework examples and the practical implications studied in detail. Such networks were found to provide precious support in addressing some of the wide range of issues that affect the coherent evaluation of evidence.

Prediction for small subgroups.

Prediction limits are calculated for the number of events likely to occur in a specified time period in an exponentially growing epidemic. The basis for the prediction is the total number of events observed in the past.