A global horizon scan of the future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on urban ecosystems.

Technology is transforming societies worldwide. A major innovation is the emergence of robotics and autonomous systems (RAS), which have the potential to revolutionize cities for both people and nature. Nonetheless, the opportunities and challenges associated with RAS for urban ecosystems have yet to be considered systematically. Here, we report the findings of an online horizon scan involving 170 expert participants from 35 countries. We conclude that RAS are likely to transform land use, transport systems and human-nature interactions. The prioritized opportunities were primarily centred on the deployment of RAS for the monitoring and management of biodiversity and ecosystems. Fewer challenges were prioritized. Those that were emphasized concerns surrounding waste from unrecovered RAS, and the quality and interpretation of RAS-collected data. Although the future impacts of RAS for urban ecosystems are difficult to predict, examining potentially important developments early is essential if we are to avoid detrimental consequences but fully realize the benefits.

A spatial framework to explore needs and opportunities for interoperable urban flood management.

Managing current and future urban flood risks must consider the connection (i.e. interoperability) between existing (and new) infrastructure systems to manage stormwater (pluvial flooding). Yet, due to a lack of systematic approaches to identify interoperable flood management interventions, opportunities are missed to combine investments of existing infrastructure (e.g. drainage, roads, land use and buildings) with blue-green infrastructure (e.g. sustainable urban drainage systems, green roofs, green spaces). In this study, a spatial analysis framework is presented combining hydrodynamic modelling with spatial information on infrastructure systems to provide strategic direction for systems-level urban flood management (UFM). The framework is built upon three categories of data: (i) flood hazard areas (i.e. characterize the spatial flood problem); (ii) flood source areas (i.e. areas contributing the most to surface flooding); (iii) the interoperable potential of different systems (i.e. which infrastructure systems can contribute to water management functions). Applied to the urban catchment of Newcastle-Upon-Tyne (UK), the study illustrates the novelty of combining spatial data sources in a systematic way, and highlights the spatial (dis)connectivity in terms of flood source areas (where most of the flood management intervention is required) and the benefit areas (where most of the reduction in flooding occurs). The framework provides a strategic tool for managing stormwater pathways from an interoperable perspective that can help city-scale infrastructure development that considers UFM across multiple systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: analysis through the local and global properties space.

Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key technological interventions to be evaluated with respect to their effect on the vulnerability of wider infrastructure systems. We use exposure of low carbon infrastructure to critical material supply disruption (criticality) to demonstrate the methodology. A series of local performance changes are analyzed; and by extension of this approach, a method for assessing the combined criticality of multiple materials for one specific technology is proposed. Via a case study of wind turbines at both the material (magnets) and technology (turbine generators) levels, we demonstrate that analysis of a given intervention at different levels can lead to differing conclusions regarding the effect on vulnerability. Infrastructure design decisions should take a systemic approach; without these multilevel considerations, strategic goals aimed to help meet low-carbon targets, that is, through long-term infrastructure transitions, could be significantly jeopardized.

Managing critical materials with a technology-specific stocks and flows model.

The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model's potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%.