Long-term survival for lymphoid neoplasms and national health expenditure (EUROCARE-6): a retrospective, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Management of lymphoid malignancies requires substantial health system resources. Total national health expenditure might influence population-based lymphoid malignancy survival. We studied the long-term survival of patients with 12 lymphoid malignancy types and examined whether different levels of national health expenditure might explain differences in lymphoid malignancy prognosis between European countries and regions. METHODS: For this observational, retrospective, population-based study, we analysed the EUROCARE-6 dataset of patients aged 15 or older diagnosed between 2001 and 2013 with one of 12 lymphoid malignancies defined according to International Classification of Disease for Oncology (third edition) and WHO classification, and followed up to 2014 (Jan 1, 2001-Dec 31, 2014). Countries were classified according to their mean total national health expenditure quartile in 2001-13. For each lymphoid malignancy, 5-year and 10-year age-standardised relative survival (ASRS) was calculated using the period approach. Generalised linear models indicated the effects of age at diagnosis, gender, and total national health expenditure on the relative excess risk of death (RER). FINDINGS: 82 cancer registries (61 regional and 21 national) from 27 European countries provided data eligible for 10-year survival estimates comprising 890 730 lymphoid malignancy cases diagnosed in 2001-13. Median follow-up time was 13 years (IQR 13-14). Of the 12 lymphoid malignancies, the 10-year ASRS in Europe was highest for hairy cell leukaemia (82·6% [95% CI 78·9-86·5) and Hodgkin lymphoma (79·3% [78·6-79·9]) and lowest for plasma cell neoplasms (29·5% [28·9-30·0]). RER increased with age at diagnosis, particularly from 55-64 years to 75 years or older, for all lymphoid malignancies. Women had higher ASRS than men for all lymphoid malignancies, except for precursor B, T, or natural killer cell, or not-otherwise specified lymphoblastic lymphoma or leukaemia. 10-year ASRS for each lymphoid malignancy was higher (and the RER lower) in countries in the highest national health expenditure quartile than in countries in the lowest quartile, with a decreasing pattern through quartiles for many lymphoid malignancies. 10-year ASRS for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the most representative class for lymphoid malignancies based on the number of incident cases, was 59·3% (95% CI 58·7-60·0) in the first quartile, 57·6% (55·2-58·7) in the second quartile, 55·4% (54·3-56·5) in the third quartile, and 44·7% (43·6-45·8) in the fourth quartile; with reference to the European mean, the RER was 0·80 (95% CI 0·79-0·82) in the first, 0·91 (0·90-0·93) in the second, 0·94 (0·92-0·96) in the third, and 1·45 (1·42-1·48) in the fourth quartiles. INTERPRETATION: Total national health expenditure is associated with geographical inequalities in lymphoid malignancy prognosis. Policy decisions on allocating economic resources and implementing evidence-based models of care are needed to reduce these differences. FUNDING: Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission, Estonian Research Council.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynaecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate Net Survival (NS), Cure Fraction, Time To Cure (5-year conditional NS>95%), Cure Prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and Already Cured (living longer than Time to Cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121,704) of Italian women were alive after corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52,551) after cervical, and 0.2% (52,153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (Cure Prevalence). Women with gynaecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% after 5 years since diagnosis. The Cure Fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time To Cure was ≤10 years for women with gynaecological cancers aged <55 years. 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were Already Cured. These results will contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynaecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones.

Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy.

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Complete cancer prevalence in Europe in 2020 by disease duration and country (EUROCARE-6): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survivors-people living with and beyond cancer-are a growing population with different health needs depending on prognosis and time since diagnosis. Despite being increasingly necessary, complete information on cancer prevalence is not systematically available in all European countries. We aimed to fill this gap by analysing population-based cancer registry data from the EUROCARE-6 study. METHODS: In this population-based study, using incidence and follow-up data up to Jan 1, 2013, from 61 cancer registries, complete and limited-duration prevalence by cancer type, sex, and age were estimated for 29 European countries and the 27 countries in the EU (EU27; represented by 22 member states that contributed registry data) using the completeness index method. We focused on 32 malignant cancers defined according to the third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, and only the first primary tumour was considered when estimating the prevalence. Prevalence measures are expressed in terms of absolute number of prevalent cases, crude prevalence proportion (reported as percentage or cases per 100 000 resident people), and age-standardised prevalence proportion based on the European Standard Population 2013. We made projections of cancer prevalence proportions up to Jan 1, 2020, using linear regression. FINDINGS: In 2020, 23 711 thousand (95% CI 23 565-23 857) people (5·0% of the population) were estimated to be alive after a cancer diagnosis in Europe, and 22 347 thousand (95% CI 22 210-22 483) in EU27. Cancer survivors were more frequently female (12 818 thousand [95% CI 12 720-12 917]) than male (10 892 thousand [10 785-11 000]). The five leading tumours in female survivors were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uterine cancer, skin melanoma, and thyroid cancer (crude prevalence proportion from 2270 [95%CI 2248-2292] per 100 000 to 301 [297-305] per 100 000). Prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, urinary bladder cancer, skin melanoma, and kidney cancer were the most common tumours in male survivors (from 1714 [95% CI 1686-1741] per 100 000 to 255 [249-260] per 100 000). The differences in prevalence between countries were large (from 2 to 10 times depending on cancer type), in line with the demographic structure, incidence, and survival patterns. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of prevalent cases increased by 3·5% per year (41% overall), partly due to an ageing population. In 2020, 14 850 thousand (95% CI 14 681-15 018) people were estimated to be alive more than 5 years after diagnosis and 9099 thousand (8909-9288) people were estimated to be alive more than 10 years after diagnosis, representing an increasing proportion of the cancer survivor population. INTERPRETATION: Our findings are useful at the country level in Europe to support evidence-based policies to improve the quality of life, care, and rehabilitation of patients with cancer throughout the disease pathway. Future work includes estimating time to cure by stage at diagnosis in prevalent cases. FUNDING: European Commission.

Comparison of microbiological profile of enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) isolates from subjects with colorectal cancer (CRC) or intestinal pre-cancerous lesions versus healthy individuals and evaluation of environmental factors involved in intestinal dysbiosis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) isolates from colorectal biopsies of subjects with a histological analysis positive for colorectal cancer (CRC), pre-cancerous lesions (pre-CRC) or with a healthy intestinal tissue and to evaluate the environmental factors that may not only concur to CRC development but may also affect gut microbiota composition. METHODS: ETBF isolates were typed using the ERIC-PCR method, while PCR assays were performed to investigate the bft alleles, the B. fragilis pathogenicity island (BFPAI) region and the cepA, cfiA and cfxA genes. Susceptibility to antibiotics was tested using the agar dilution method. Environmental factors that could play a role in promoting intestinal dysbiosis were evaluated throughout a questionnaire administered to the subjects enrolled. RESULTS: Six different ERIC-PCR types were identified. The type denominated C in this study was the most prevalent, in particular among the biopsies of subjects with pre-CRC, while an isolate belonging to a different type, denominated F, was detected in a biopsy from a subject with CRC. All the ETBF isolates from pre-CRC or CRC subjects had a B. fragilis pathogenicity island (BFPAI) region pattern I, while those from healthy individuals showed also different patterns. Furthermore, 71% of isolates from subjects with pre-CRC or CRC were resistant to two or more classes of antibiotics vs 43% of isolates from healthy individuals. The B. fragilis toxin BFT1 was the most frequently detected in this study, confirming the constant circulation of this isoform strains in Italy. Interestingly, BFT1 was found in 86% of the ETBF isolates from patients with CRC or pre-CRC, while the BFT2 was prevalent among the ETBF isolates from healthy subjects. No substantial differences based on sex, age, tobacco and alcohol consumption were observed between healthy and non-healthy individuals included in this study, while most of the subjects with CRC or pre-CRC lesions were subjected to pharmacological therapy (71%) and showed a body mass index (BMI) that falls within the overweight range (86%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that some types of ETBF seem to better adapt and colonize the human gut and that the selective pressure exerted by factors related to lifestyle, such as pharmacological therapy and weight, could facilitate their persistence in the gut and their possible involvement in CRC development.

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries.

Objectives: To describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries. Materials and methods: Cancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy. Results: For the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis. Conclusions: This study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active.

Estimating complete cancer prevalence in Europe: validity of alternative vs standard completeness indexes.

Introduction: Comparable indicators on complete cancer prevalence are increasingly needed in Europe to support survivorship care planning. Direct measures can be biased by limited registration time and estimates are needed to recover long term survivors. The completeness index method, based on incidence and survival modelling, is the standard most validated approach. Methods: Within this framework, we consider two alternative approaches that do not require any direct modelling activity: i) empirical indices derived from long established European registries; ii) pre-calculated indices derived from US-SEER cancer registries. Relying on the EUROCARE-6 study dataset we compare standard vs alternative complete prevalence estimates using data from 62 registries in 27 countries by sex, cancer type and registration time. Results: For tumours mostly diagnosed in the elderly the empirical estimates differ little from standard estimates (on average less than 5% after 10-15 years of registration), especially for low prognosis cancers. For early-onset cancers (bone, brain, cervix uteri, testis, Hodgkin disease, soft tissues) the empirical method may produce substantial underestimations of complete prevalence (up to 20%) even when based on 35-year observations. SEER estimates are comparable to the standard ones for most cancers, including many early-onset tumours, even when derived from short time series (10-15 years). Longer observations are however needed when cancer-specific incidence and prognosis differ remarkably between US and European populations (endometrium, thyroid or stomach). Discussion: These results may facilitate the dissemination of complete prevalence estimates across Europe and help bridge the current information gaps.

Cancer treatment data available in European cancer registries: Where are we and where are we going?

Population-based cancer registries are responsible for collecting incidence and survival data on all reportable neoplasms within a defined geographical area. During the last decades, the role of cancer registries has evolved beyond monitoring epidemiological indicators, as they are expanding their activities to studies on cancer aetiology, prevention, and quality of care. This expansion relies also on the collection of additional clinical data, such as stage at diagnosis and cancer treatment. While the collection of data on stage, according to international reference classification, is consolidated almost everywhere, data collection on treatment is still very heterogeneous in Europe. This article combines data from a literature review and conference proceedings together with data from 125 European cancer registries contributing to the 2015 ENCR-JRC data call to provide an overview of the status of using and reporting treatment data in population-based cancer registries. The literature review shows that there is an increase in published data on cancer treatment by population-based cancer registries over the years. In addition, the review indicates that treatment data are most often collected for breast cancer, the most frequent cancer in women in Europe, followed by colorectal, prostate and lung cancers, which are also more common. Treatment data are increasingly being reported by cancer registries, though further improvements are required to ensure their complete and harmonised collection. Sufficient financial and human resources are needed to collect and analyse treatment data. Clear registration guidelines are to be made available to increase the availability of real-world treatment data in a harmonised way across Europe.

Cancer Cure and Consequences on Survivorship Care: Position Paper from the Italian Alliance Against Cancer (ACC) Survivorship Care Working Group.

A multidisciplinary panel of experts and cancer patients developed a position paper to highlight recent evidence on "cancer cure" (ie, the possibility of achieving the same life expectancy as the general population) and discuss the consequences of this concept on follow-up and rehabilitation strategies. The aim is to inform clinicians, patients, and health-care policy makers about strategies of survivorship care for cured cancer patients and consequences impacting patient lives, spurring public health authorities and research organizations to implement resources to the purpose. Two identifiable, measurable, and reproducible indicators of cancer cure are presented. Cure fraction (CF) is >60% for breast and prostate cancer patients, >50% for colorectal cancer patients, and >70% for patients with melanoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, and cancers of corpus uteri, testis (>90%), and thyroid. CF was >65% for patients diagnosed at ages 15-44 years and 30% for those aged 65-74 years. Time-to-cure was consistently <1 year for thyroid and testicular cancer patients and <10 years for patients with colorectal and cervical cancers, melanoma, and Hodgkin lymphoma. The working group agrees that the evidence allows risk stratification of cancer patients and implementation of personalized care models for timely diagnosis, as well as treatment of possible cancer relapses or related long-term complications, and preventive measures aimed at maintaining health status of cured patients. These aspects should be integrated to produce an appropriate follow-up program and survivorship care plan(s), avoiding stigma and supporting return to work, to a reproductive life, and full rehabilitation. The "right to be forgotten" law, adopted to date only in a few European countries, may contribute to these efforts for cured patients.

Clear Improvement in Real-World Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Survival: A Comparison With Randomized Controlled Trials.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have been improving the prognosis of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), but there are still large differences in survival among European countries. This raises questions on the added value of results from population-based studies, which use real-world data, compared to results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving patients with CML. There are also questions about the extent of the findings on RCTs effectiveness for patients in the general population. We compare survival data extracted from our previous systematic review and meta-analysis of CML RCTs with the latest updated population-based survival data of EUROCARE-6, the widest collaborative study on cancer survival in Europe. The EUROCARE-6 CML survival estimated in patients (15-64 years) diagnosed in 2000-2006 vs. 2007-2013 revealed that the prognostic improvement highlighted by RCTs was confirmed in real-world settings, too. The study shows, evaluating for the first time all European regions, that the optimal outcome figures obtained in controlled settings for CML are also achievable (and indeed achieved) in real-world settings with prompt introduction of TKIs in daily clinical practice. However, some differences still persist, particularly in Eastern European countries, where overall survival values are lower than elsewhere, probably due to a delayed introduction of TKIs. Our results suggest an insufficient adoption of adequate protocols in daily clinical practice in those countries where CML survival values remain lower in real life than the values obtained in RCTs. New high-resolution population-based studies may help to identify failures in the clinical pathways followed there.

Circular Economy Business Models: a Repertoire of Theoretical Relationships and a Research Agenda.

The shift towards a more resource efficient circular economy has become a necessity in the wake of current ecological, economic and social sustainability challenges. Mirroring circular-related developments in policy and business quarters, the circular economy literature is growing as a distinct field of academic enquiry. Yet, the conceptual and theoretical foundations of circular economy thinking need consolidation. Drawing from strategic management, sustainability transitions and systems theories, this article establishes some theoretical anchoring for circular economy business models. It finds that circular business models contribute to an understanding of both competitive advantage and the systemic nature of business. It also develops a future agenda for management research at the interface between the circular economy and business models.

Association of Polygenic Risk Score and Bacterial Toxins at Screening Colonoscopy with Colorectal Cancer Progression: A Multicenter Case-Control Study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, and its incidence is correlated with infections, chronic inflammation, diet, and genetic factors. An emerging aspect is that microbial dysbiosis and chronic infections triggered by certain bacteria can be risk factors for tumor progression. Recent data suggest that certain bacterial toxins implicated in DNA attack or in proliferation, replication, and death can be risk factors for insurgence and progression of CRC. In this study, we recruited more than 300 biopsy specimens from people undergoing colonoscopy, and we analyzed to determine whether a correlation exists between the presence of bacterial genes coding for toxins possibly involved in CRC onset and progression and the different stages of CRC. We also analyzed to determine whether CRC-predisposing genetic factors could contribute to bacterial toxins response. Our results showed that CIF toxin is associated with polyps or adenomas, whereas pks+ seems to be a predisposing factor for CRC. Toxins from Escherichia coli as a whole have a higher incidence rate in adenocarcinoma patients compared to controls, whereas Bacteroides fragilis toxin does not seem to be associated with pre-cancerous nor with cancerous lesions. These results have been obtained irrespectively of the presence of CRC-risk loci.

Indexes for the assessment of bacterial pollution in bathing waters from point sources: The northern Adriatic Sea CADEAU service.

This paper presents a novel set of water quality indexes to identify the area potentially affected by point sources of bacterial pollution in coastal bathing waters. The indexes, developed in the framework of the CADEAU service, are evaluated on the results of a modelling system based on the integration of a high-resolution ocean model, remote sensing observations and in situ monitoring data for the northern Adriatic Sea. In particular, the system is a downscaling of the Mediterranean Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service and exploits data produced within the Bathing Waters Directive, the Water Framework Directive and the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive to create added value products. The aim of the proposed indexes is to support the identification of areas of influence for bathing waters by identifying the potential threat from point sources of bacterial pollution, both in standard conditions and peculiar events such as a total bypass of wastewater treatment plants. The results for the Chioggia Municipality case study show the potential of the indexes to significantly improve the geographical identification and quantitative evaluation of the impacts of bacterial pollution sources on bathing waters, facilitating the design of mitigation measures. The proposed methodology represents a new management approach to support local authorities in defining the area of influence within the water bathing profile through the proper characterization of the point sources of bacterial pollution.

Occupational Exposures and Environmental Health Hazards of Military Personnel.

BACKGROUND: Military personnel are frequently exposed to environmental pollutants that can cause a variety of diseases. METHODS: This review analyzed publications regarding epidemiological and biomonitoring studies on occupationally-exposed military personnel. RESULTS: The exposures include sulfur mustard, organ chlorines, combustion products, fuel vapors, and ionizing and exciting radiations. Important factors to be considered are the lengths and intensities of exposures, its proximity to the sources of environmental pollutants, as well as confounding factors (cigarette smoke, diet, photo-type, healthy warrior effect, etc.). Assessment of environmental and individual exposures to pollutants is crucial, although often omitted, because soldiers have often been evaluated based on reported health problems rather than on excessive exposure to pollutants. Biomarkers of exposures and effects are tools to explore relationships between exposures and diseases in military personnel. Another observation from this review is a major problem from the lack of suitable control groups. CONCLUSIONS: This review indicates that only studies which analyzed epidemiological and molecular biomarkers in both exposed and control groups would provide evidence-based conclusions on exposure and disease risk in military personnel.

Cancer cure for 32 cancer types: results from the EUROCARE-5 study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have estimated the probability of being cured for cancer patients. This study aims to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure in Europe by type, sex, age and period. METHODS: 7.2 million cancer patients (42 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries) diagnosed at ages 15-74 years in 1990-2007 with follow-up to 2008 were selected from the EUROCARE-5 dataset. Mixture-cure models were used to estimate: (i) life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF); (ii) cure fraction (CF) as proportion of patients with same death rates as the general population; (iii) time to cure (TTC) as time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >95%. RESULTS: LEF ranged from 10 years for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients to <6 months for those with liver, pancreas, brain, gallbladder and lung cancers. It was 7.7 years for patients with prostate cancer at age 65-74 years and >5 years for women with breast cancer. The CF was 94% for testis, 87% for thyroid cancer in women and 70% in men, 86% for skin melanoma in women and 76% in men, 66% for breast, 63% for prostate and <10% for liver, lung and pancreatic cancers. TTC was <5 years for testis and thyroid cancer patients diagnosed below age 55 years, and <10 years for stomach, colorectal, corpus uteri and melanoma patients of all ages. For breast and prostate cancers, a small excess (CRS < 95%) remained for at least 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates from this analysis should help to reduce unneeded medicalization and costs. They represent an opportunity to improve patients' quality of life.

Reasons for low cervical cancer survival in new accession European Union countries: a EUROCARE-5 study.

PURPOSE: With better access to early diagnosis and appropriate treatment, cervical cancer (CC) burden decreased in several European countries. In Eastern European (EE) countries, which accessed European Union in 2004, CC survival was worse than in the rest of Europe. The present study investigates CC survival differences across five European regions, considering stage at diagnosis (local, regional and metastatic), morphology (mainly squamous versus glandular tumours) and patients' age. METHODS: We analysed 101,714 CC women diagnosed in 2000-2007 and followed-up to December 2008. Age-standardised 5-year relative survival (RS) and the excess risks of cancer death in the 5 years after diagnosis were computed. RESULTS: EE women were older and less commonly diagnosed with glandular tumours. Proportions of local stage cancers were similar across Europe, while morphology- and stage-specific RS (especially for non-metastatic disease) were lower in Eastern Europe. Adjusting for age and morphology, excess risk of local stage CC death for EE patients remained higher than that for other European women. CONCLUSION: Stage, age and morphology alone do not explain worse survival in Eastern Europe: less effective care may play a role, probably partly due to fewer or inadequate resources being allocated to health care in this area, compared to the rest of Europe.

Changes in life expectancy for cancer patients over time since diagnosis.

The aims of this study were to provide life expectancy (LE) estimates of cancer patients at diagnosis and LE changes over time since diagnosis to describe the impact of cancer during patients' entire lives. Cancer patients' LE was calculated by standard period life table methodology using the relative survival of Italian patients diagnosed in population-based cancer registries in 1985-2011 with follow-up to 2013. Data were smoothed using a polynomial model and years of life lost (YLL) were calculated as the difference between patients' LE and that of the age- and sex-matched general population. The YLL at diagnosis was highest at the youngest age at diagnosis, steadily decreasing thereafter. For patients diagnosed at age 45 years, the YLL was above 20 for lung and ovarian cancers and below 6 for thyroid cancer in women and melanoma in men. LE progressively increased in patients surviving the first years, decreasing thereafter, to approach that of the general population. YLL in the long run mainly depends on attained age. Providing quantitative data is essential to better define clinical follow-up and plan health care resource allocation. These results help assess when the excess risk of death from tumour becomes negligible in cancer survivors.

Prognosis and cure of long-term cancer survivors: A population-based estimation.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence of cure for some neoplasms has emerged in recent years. The study aimed to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure. METHODS: Information on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15-74 years collected by population-based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population (cure fraction), and time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95% (time to cure). RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2000, the median LEFT increased >1 year for breast (from 8.1 to 9.4 years) and prostate cancers (from 5.2 to 7.4 years). Median LEFT in 1990 was >5 years for testicular cancers (5.8) and Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3) below 45 years of age. In both sexes, it was ≤0.5 years for pancreatic cancers and NHL in 1990 and in 2000. The cure fraction showed a 10% increase between 1990 and 2000. It was 95% for thyroid cancer in women, 94% for testis, 75% for prostate, 67% for breast cancers, and <20% for liver, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Time to 5-year CRS >95% was <10 years for testis, thyroid, colon cancers, and melanoma. For breast and prostate cancers, the 5-year CRS >90% was reached in <10 years but a small excess remained for >15 years. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed that several cancer types are curable. Became aware of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts.

Bayesian estimates of the incidence of rare cancers in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The RARECAREnet project has updated the estimates of the burden of the 198 rare cancers in each European country. Suspecting that scant data could affect the reliability of statistical analysis, we employed a Bayesian approach to estimate the incidence of these cancers. METHODS: We analyzed about 2,000,000 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2007 provided by 83 population-based cancer registries from 27 European countries. We considered European incidence rates (IRs), calculated over all the data available in RARECAREnet, as a valid a priori to merge with country-specific observed data. Therefore we provided (1) Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly numbers of cases of rare cancers in each country; (2) the expected time (T) in years needed to observe one new case; and (3) practical criteria to decide when to use the Bayesian approach. RESULTS: Bayesian and classical estimates did not differ much; substantial differences (>10%) ranged from 77 rare cancers in Iceland to 14 in England. The smaller the population the larger the number of rare cancers needing a Bayesian approach. Bayesian estimates were useful for cancers with fewer than 150 observed cases in a country during the study period; this occurred mostly when the population of the country is small. CONCLUSION: For the first time the Bayesian estimates of IRs and the yearly expected numbers of cases for each rare cancer in each individual European country were calculated. Moreover, the indicator T is useful to convey incidence estimates for exceptionally rare cancers and in small countries; it far exceeds the professional lifespan of a medical doctor.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.