Predicting coastal algal blooms in southern California.

The irregular appearance of planktonic algae blooms off the coast of southern California has been a source of wonder for over a century. Although large algal blooms can have significant negative impacts on ecosystems and human health, a predictive understanding of these events has eluded science, and many have come to regard them as ultimately random phenomena. However, the highly nonlinear nature of ecological dynamics can give the appearance of randomness and stress traditional methods-such as model fitting or analysis of variance-to the point of breaking. The intractability of this problem from a classical linear standpoint can thus give the impression that algal blooms are fundamentally unpredictable. Here, we use an exceptional time series study of coastal phytoplankton dynamics at La Jolla, CA, with an equation-free modeling approach, to show that these phenomena are not random, but can be understood as nonlinear population dynamics forced by external stochastic drivers (so-called "stochastic chaos"). The combination of this modeling approach with an extensive dataset allows us to not only describe historical behavior and clarify existing hypotheses about the mechanisms, but also make out-of-sample predictions of recent algal blooms at La Jolla that were not included in the model development.

Plankton dynamics and biogeochemical fluxes in the Costa Rica Dome: introduction to the CRD Flux and Zinc Experiments.

The Costa Rica Dome (CRD) is an open-ocean upwelling system in the Eastern Tropical Pacific that overlies the ocean's largest oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). The region has unique characteristics, biomass dominance by picophytoplankton, suppressed diatoms, high biomass of higher consumers and presumptive trace metal limitation, but is poorly understood in terms of pelagic stock and process relationships, including productivity and production controls. Here, we describe the goals, project design, physical context and major findings of the Flux and Zinc Experiments cruise conducted in June-July 2010 to assess trophic flux relationships and elemental controls on phytoplankton in the CRD. Despite sampling during a year of suppressed summertime surface chlorophyll, cruise results show high productivity (∼1 g C m-2 day-1), high new production relative to export, balanced production and grazing, disproportionate biomass-specific productivity of large phytoplankton and high zooplankton stocks. Zinc concentrations are low in surface waters relative to phosphorous and silicate in other regions, providing conditions conducive to picophytoplankton, like Synechococcus, with low Zn requirements. Experiments nonetheless highlight phytoplankton limitation or co-limitation by silicic acid, driven by a strong silica pump that is linked to low dissolution of biogenic silica in the cold shallow thermocline of the lower euphotic zone.

Net biogenic silica production and the contribution of diatoms to new production and organic matter export in the Costa Rica Dome ecosystem.

We determined the net rate of biogenic silica (bSiO2) production and estimated the diatom contribution to new production and organic matter export in the Costa Rica Dome during summer 2010. The shallow thermocline significantly reduces bSiO2 dissolution rates below the mixed layer, leading to significant enhancement of bSiO2 relative to organic matter (silicate-pump condition). This may explain why deep export of bSiO2 in this region is elevated by an order of magnitude relative to comparable systems. Diatom carbon, relative to autotrophic carbon, was low (<3%); however, the contribution of diatoms to new production averaged 3 and 13% using independent approaches. The 4-old discrepancy between methods may be explained by a low average C:Si ratio (∼1.4) for the net produced diatom C relative to the net produced bSiO2. We speculate that this low production ratio is not the result of reduced C, but may arise from a significant contribution of non-diatom silicifying organisms to bSiO2 production. The contribution of diatoms to organic matter export was minor (5.7%). These results, and those of the broader project, suggest substantial food-web transformation of diatom organic matter in the euphotic zone, which creates enriched bSiO2 relative to organic matter within the exported material.

Community Structure of Tintinnid Ciliates of the Microzooplankton in the South West Pacific Ocean: Comparison of a High Primary Productivity with a Typical Oligotrophic Site.

Transient 'hot spots' of phytoplankton productivity occur in the generally oligotrophic Southern Pacific Ocean and we hypothesized that the population structure of tintinnid ciliates, planktonic grazers, would differ from that of a typical oligotrophic sites. Samples were collected over a 1-wk period at each of two sites between Fiji and Tahiti: one of elevated chlorophyll a concentrations and primary productivity with an abundance of N-fixing cyanobacteria Trichodesmium, and a distant oligotrophic site. Tintinnid abundance differed between the sites by a factor of 2. A single species (Favella sp.), absent from the oligotrophic site, highly dominated the 'hot spot' site. However, total species richness was identical (71 spp.) as well as short-term temporal variability (2-4 d). At both sites, species abundance distributions most closely fit a log-series or log-normal distribution and the abundance distributions of ecological types, forms of distinct lorica oral diameter, were the typical geometric. Morphological diversity was only slightly lower at the high productivity site. We found that communities of these plankton grazers in 'hot spots' of phytoplankton productivity in oligotrophic systems, although harboring different species, differ little from surrounding oligotrophic areas in community structure.