A model for the coupling of the Greater Bairam and local environmental factors in promoting Rift-Valley Fever epizootics in Egypt.

OBJECTIVES: Rift-Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne disease in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Drivers for this disease vary by region and are not well understood for North African countries such as Egypt. A deeper understanding of RVF risk factors would inform disease management policies. STUDY DESIGN: The present study employs mathematical and computational modeling techniques to ascertain the extent to which the severity of RVF epizootics in Egypt differs depending on the interaction between imported ruminant and environmentally-constrained mosquito populations. METHODS: An ordinary differential system of equations, a numerical model, and an individual-based model (IBM) were constructed to represent RVF disease dynamics between localized mosquitoes and ruminants being imported into Egypt for the Greater Bairam. Four cases, corresponding to the Greater Bairam's occurrence during distinct quarters of the solar year, were set up in both models to assess whether the different season-associated mosquito populations present during the Greater Bairam resulted in RVF epizootics of variable magnitudes. RESULTS: The numerical model and the IBM produced nearly identical results: ruminant and mosquito population plots for both models were similar in shape and magnitude for all four cases. In both models, all four cases differed in the severity of their corresponding simulated RVF epizootics. The four cases, ranked by the severity of the simulated RVF epizootics in descending order, correspond with the occurrence of the Greater Bairam on the following months: July, October, April, and January. The numerical model was assessed for sensitivity with respect to parameter values and exhibited a high degree of robustness. CONCLUSIONS: Limiting the importation of infected ruminants beginning one month prior to the Greater Bairam festival (on years in which the festival falls between the months of July and October: 2014-2022) might be a feasible way of mitigating future RVF epizootics in Egypt.

Effects of dispersal on total biomass in a patchy, heterogeneous system: Analysis and experiment.

An intriguing recent result from mathematics is that a population diffusing at an intermediate rate in an environment in which resources vary spatially will reach a higher total equilibrium biomass than the population in an environment in which the same total resources are distributed homogeneously. We extended the current mathematical theory to apply to logistic growth and also showed that the result applies to patchy systems with dispersal among patches, both for continuous and discrete time. This allowed us to make specific predictions, through simulations, concerning the biomass dynamics, which were verified by a laboratory experiment. The experiment was a study of biomass growth of duckweed (Lemna minor Linn.), where the resources (nutrients added to water) were distributed homogeneously among a discrete series of water-filled containers in one treatment, and distributed heterogeneously in another treatment. The experimental results showed that total biomass peaked at an intermediate, relatively low, diffusion rate, higher than the total carrying capacity of the system and agreeing with the simulation model. The implications of the experiment to dynamics of source, sink, and pseudo-sink dynamics are discussed.

Using data from an encounter sampler to model fish dispersal.

A method to estimate speed of free-ranging fishes using a passive sampling device is described and illustrated with data from the Everglades, U.S.A. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) from minnow traps embedded in drift fences was treated as an encounter rate and used to estimate speed, when combined with an independent estimate of density obtained by use of throw traps that enclose 1 m(2) of marsh habitat. Underwater video was used to evaluate capture efficiency and species-specific bias of minnow traps and two sampling studies were used to estimate trap saturation and diel-movement patterns; these results were used to optimize sampling and derive correction factors to adjust species-specific encounter rates for bias and capture efficiency. Sailfin mollies Poecilia latipinna displayed a high frequency of escape from traps, whereas eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki were most likely to avoid a trap once they encountered it; dollar sunfish Lepomis marginatus were least likely to avoid the trap once they encountered it or to escape once they were captured. Length of sampling and time of day affected CPUE; fishes generally had a very low retention rate over a 24 h sample time and only the Everglades pygmy sunfish Elassoma evergladei were commonly captured at night. Dispersal speed of fishes in the Florida Everglades, U.S.A., was shown to vary seasonally and among species, ranging from 0· 05 to 0· 15 m s(-1) for small poeciliids and fundulids to 0· 1 to 1· 8 m s(-1) for L. marginatus. Speed was generally highest late in the wet season and lowest in the dry season, possibly tied to dispersal behaviours linked to finding and remaining in dry-season refuges. These speed estimates can be used to estimate the diffusive movement rate, which is commonly employed in spatial ecological models.

Dynamics of prey moving through a predator field: a model of migrating juvenile salmon.

The migration of a patch of prey through a field of relatively stationary predators is a situation that occurs frequently in nature. Making quantitative predictions concerning such phenomena may be difficult, however, because factors such as the number of the prey in the patch, the spatial length and velocity of the patch, and the feeding rate and satiation of the predators all interact in a complex way. However, such problems are of great practical importance in many management situations; e.g., calculating the mortality of juvenile salmon (smolts) swimming down a river or reservoir containing many predators. Salmon smolts often move downstream in patches short compared with the length of the reservoir. To take into account the spatial dependence of the interaction, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling approach. We found that the mortality of prey depends strongly on the number of prey in the patch, the downstream velocity of prey in the patch, and the dispersion or spread of the patch in size through time. Some counterintuitive phenomena are predicted, such as predators downstream capturing more prey per predator than those upstream, even though the number of prey may be greatly depleted by the time the prey patch reaches the downstream predators. Individual-based models may be necessary for complex spatial situations, such as salmonid migration, where processes such as schooling occur at fine scales and affect system predictions. We compare some results to predictions from other salmonid models.

Effects of spatial grouping on the functional response of predators.

A unified mechanistic approach is given for the derivation of various forms of functional response in predator-prey models. The derivation is based on the principle of mass action but with the crucial refinement that the nature of the spatial distribution of predators and/or opportunities for predation are taken into account in an implicit way. If the predators are assumed to have a homogeneous spatial distribution, then the derived functional response is prey-dependent. If the predators are assumed to form a dense colony or school in a single (possibly moving) location, or if the region where predators can encounter prey is assumed to be of limited size, then the functional response depends on both predator and prey densities in a manner that reflects feeding interference between predators. Depending on the specific assumptions, the resulting functional response may be of Beddington-DeAngelis type, of Hassell-Varley type, or ratio-dependent.

Effect of periphyton biomass on hydraulic characteristics and nutrient cycling in streams.

The effect of periphyton biomass on hydraulic characteristics and nutrient cycling was studied in laboratory streams with and without snail herbivores. Hydraulic characteristics, such as average water velocity, dispersion coefficients, and relative volume of transient storage zones (zones of stationary water), were quantified by performing short-term injections of a conservative tracer and fitting an advection-dispersion model to the conservative tracer concentration profile downstream from the injection site. Nutrient cycling was quantified by measuring two indices: (1) uptake rate of phosphorus from stream water normalized to gross primary production (GPP), a surrogate measure of total P demand, and (2) turnover rate of phosphorus in the periphyton matrix. These measures indicate the importance of internal cycling (within the periphyton matrix) in meeting the P demands of periphyton. Dense growths of filamentous diatoms and blue-green algae accumulated in the streams with no snails (high-biomass streams), whereas the periphyton communities in streams with snails consisted almost entirely of a thin layer of basal cells of Stigeoclonium sp. (low-biomass streams). Dispersion coefficients were significantly greater and transient storage zones were significantly larger in the high-biomass streams compared to the low-biomass streams. Rates of GPP-normalized P uptake from water and rates of P turnover in periphyton were significantly lower in high biomass than in low biomass periphyton communities, suggesting that a greater fraction of the P demand was met by recycling in the high biomass communities. Increases in streamwater P concentration significantly increased GPP-normalized P uptake in high biomass communities, suggesting diffusion limitation of nutrient transfer from stream water to algal cells in these communities. Our results demonstrate that accumulations of periphyton biomass can alter the hydraulic characteristics of streams, particularly by increasing transient storage zones, and can increase internal nutrient cycling. They suggest a close coupling of hydraulic characteristics and nutrient cycling processes in stream ecosystems.

Scale-dependent dynamics: Zooplankton and the stability of freshwater food webs.

The study of freshwater pelagic communities is entering an exciting and controversial phase. Recent efforts to clarify how food web interactions differ from food chain interactions have emphasized the various, often subtle, repercussions of top predators on communities. Predators can modify community structure not only through directly imposed death rates, but also through direct and indirect effects on prey interactions, behavior, life-styles and morphology (e.g. induction of defenses). In some cases, the effects influence ecosystem properties (material fluxes, turnover rates and primary production). Attempts to trace food web impacts in enclosure and lake studies have revealed important time-dependent system properties. Severe resource limitation of fast variables (phytoplankton and small zooplankton) stabilizes lower trophic levels, whereas the potentially destabilizing effects of fish population oscillations are long compared to the growing season and subject to year-to-year climatic vagaries. The time-scale dependent approach is important because it emphasizes how local (transient) solutions may be more ecologically relevant to stability calculations than overall (global) solutions.

Bioaccumulation of 95mTc in fish and snails.

Concentration factors for technetium recommended in radiological assessment models for freshwater biota are default values based on the behavior of iodine in the environment. In this study a small experimental freshwater pond was spiked with 95mTc to obtain data for calculating concentration factors for fish and snails. A model using the pond data was developed to calculate steady-state body burdens for freshwater biota. The concentration factors based on the calculated body burden for carp (Caprinus carpio), mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis), and snails (Helisoma sp.) were 11, 75 and 121, respectively. The concentration factor for carp was less than the recommended value of 15 listed in the USNRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 for calculating radiation dose to man; however, the concentration factors for mosquitofish and snails exceeded the recommended values by 5 and 24 times, respectively.