ABSTRACT
Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to address global climate change. While essential tools for this purpose, computational climate models are subject to considerable uncertainty, including intermodel "structural" uncertainty. Structural uncertainty analysis has emphasized simple or weighted averaging of the outputs of multimodel ensembles, sometimes with subjective Bayesian assignment of probabilities across models. However, choosing appropriate weights is problematic. To use climate simulations in integrated assessment, we propose, instead, framing climate model uncertainty as a problem of partial identification, or "deep" uncertainty. This terminology refers to situations in which the underlying mechanisms, dynamics, or laws governing a system are not completely known and cannot be credibly modeled definitively even in the absence of data limitations in a statistical sense. We propose the min-max regret (MMR) decision criterion to account for deep climate uncertainty in integrated assessment without weighting climate model forecasts. We develop a theoretical framework for cost-benefit analysis of climate policy based on MMR, and apply it computationally with a simple integrated assessment model. We suggest avenues for further research.
ABSTRACT
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has led to rapid reductions in the use of ozone-depleting substances worldwide. However, the Protocol provides for "essential use exemptions" (EUEs) if there are no "technically and economically feasible" alternatives. An application that might qualify as an "essential use" is CFC-powered medical metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and the US and other nations have applied for exemptions in this case. One concern is that exemptions are necessary to ensure access to medications for low-income uninsureds. We examine the consequences of granting or withholding such exemptions, and conclude that government policies and private-sector programs are available that make it economically feasible to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in this application, thereby furthering the global public health objectives of the Montreal Protocol without compromising the treatment of patients who currently receive medication by means of MDIs.
