Retreat to refugia: Severe habitat contraction projected for endemic alpine plants of the Olympic Peninsula.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The unique geography of the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State, USA has promoted a flora with exceptional endemism that may face high rates of extinction due to climate change. The Olympic Mountains provide an unparalleled opportunity to test predicted responses in topographically complex environments and inform conservation plans for threatened alpine taxa. METHODS: We estimated the potential impact of climate change for five endemic alpine plants of the Olympic Peninsula. We used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to visualize changes in climate niche-space in the alpine zone and the exposure of the endemics to changing conditions. We then constructed climate and topographic-based Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to estimate changes in the distribution of habitat for each taxon. KEY RESULTS: The Olympic alpine zone will experience novel environmental conditions in the future, with a pronounced decrease in winter snow and an increase in growing-season moisture stress. When topography was taken into account, the losses were more dramatic than the impact of climate alone. Indeed, 85-99% of the suitable habitat will be lost for each of the five focal taxa by 2080, with thermal refugia remaining only on the highest peaks of the eastern Olympics. CONCLUSIONS: The Olympic alpine endemics are stranded on ever-shrinking habitat islands. Within a few, isolated thermal refugia, the distribution of micro-topography may be a critical factor in determining long-term survival. The Olympic Mountains and their alpine taxa are a model system for endemics worldwide, illustrating the biogeographic characteristics that underpin vulnerability to climate change.

Why georeferencing matters: Introducing a practical protocol to prepare species occurrence records for spatial analysis.

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to understand environmental controls on species' ranges and to forecast species range shifts in response to climatic changes. The quality of input data is crucial determinant of the model's accuracy. While museum records can be useful sources of presence data for many species, they do not always include accurate geographic coordinates. Therefore, actual locations must be verified through the process of georeferencing. We present a practical, standardized manual georeferencing method (the Spatial Analysis Georeferencing Accuracy (SAGA) protocol) to classify the spatial resolution of museum records specifically for building improved SDMs. We used the high-elevation plant Saxifraga austromontana Wiegand (Saxifragaceae) as a case study to test the effect of using this protocol when developing an SDM. In MAXENT, we generated and compared SDMs using a comprehensive occurrence dataset that had undergone three different levels of georeferencing: (1) trained using all publicly available herbarium records of the species, minus outliers (2) trained using herbarium records claimed to be previously georeferenced, and (3) trained using herbarium records that we have manually georeferenced to a ≤ 1-km resolution using the SAGA protocol. Model predictions of suitable habitat for S. austromontana differed greatly depending on georeferencing level. The SDMs fitted with presence locations georeferenced using SAGA outperformed all others. Differences among models were exacerbated for future distribution predictions. Under rapid climate change, accurately forecasting the response of species becomes increasingly important. Failure to georeference location data and cull inaccurate samples leads to erroneous model output, limiting the utility of spatial analyses. We present a simple, standardized georeferencing method to be adopted by curators, ecologists, and modelers to improve the geographic accuracy of museum records and SDM predictions.

Integrating environmental, molecular, and morphological data to unravel an ice-age radiation of arctic-alpine Campanula in western North America.

Many arctic-alpine plant genera have undergone speciation during the Quaternary. The bases for these radiations have been ascribed to geographic isolation, abiotic and biotic differences between populations, and/or hybridization and polyploidization. The Cordilleran Campanula L. (Campanulaceae Juss.), a monophyletic clade of mostly endemic arctic-alpine taxa from western North America, experienced a recent and rapid radiation. We set out to unravel the factors that likely influenced speciation in this group. To do so, we integrated environmental, genetic, and morphological datasets, tested biogeographic hypotheses, and analyzed the potential consequences of the various factors on the evolutionary history of the clade. We created paleodistribution models to identify potential Pleistocene refugia for the clade and estimated niche space for individual taxa using geographic and climatic data. Using 11 nuclear loci, we reconstructed a species tree and tested biogeographic hypotheses derived from the paleodistribution models. Finally, we tested 28 morphological characters, including floral, vegetative, and seed characteristics, for their capacity to differentiate taxa. Our results show that the combined effect of Quaternary climatic variation, isolation among differing environments in the mountains in western North America, and biotic factors influencing floral morphology contributed to speciation in this group during the mid-Pleistocene. Furthermore, our biogeographic analyses uncovered asynchronous consequences of interglacial and glacial periods for the timing of refugial isolation within the southern and northwestern mountains, respectively. These findings have broad implications for understanding the processes promoting speciation in arctic-alpine plants and the rise of numerous endemic taxa across the region.

Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study.

One of the grand goals of historical biogeography is to understand how and why species' population sizes and distributions change over time. Multiple types of data drawn from disparate fields, combined into a single modelling framework, are necessary to document changes in a species's demography and distribution, and to determine the drivers responsible for change. Yet truly integrated approaches are challenging and rarely performed. Here, we discuss a modelling framework that integrates spatio-temporal fossil data, ancient DNA, palaeoclimatological reconstructions, bioclimatic envelope modelling and coalescence models in order to statistically test alternative hypotheses of demographic and potential distributional changes for the iconic American bison (Bison bison). Using different assumptions about the evolution of the bioclimatic niche, we generate hypothetical distributional and demographic histories of the species. We then test these demographic models by comparing the genetic signature predicted by serial coalescence against sequence data derived from subfossils and modern populations. Our results supported demographic models that include both climate and human-associated drivers of population declines. This synthetic approach, integrating palaeoclimatology, bioclimatic envelopes, serial coalescence, spatio-temporal fossil data and heterochronous DNA sequences, improves understanding of species' historical biogeography by allowing consideration of both abiotic and biotic interactions at the population level.

Deep genetic divergence between disjunct Refugia in the Arctic-Alpine King's Crown, Rhodiola integrifolia (Crassulaceae).

Despite the strength of climatic variability at high latitudes and upper elevations, we still do not fully understand how plants in North America that are distributed between Arctic and alpine areas responded to the environmental changes of the Quaternary. To address this question, we set out to resolve the evolutionary history of the King's Crown, Rhodiola integrifolia using multi-locus population genetic and phylogenetic analyses in combination with ecological niche modeling. Our population genetic analyses of multiple anonymous nuclear loci revealed two major clades within R. integrifolia that diverged from each other ~ 700 kya: one occurring in Beringia to the north (including members of subspecies leedyi and part of subspecies integrifolia), and the other restricted to the Southern Rocky Mountain refugium in the south (including individuals of subspecies neomexicana and part of subspecies integrifolia). Ecological niche models corroborate our hypothesized locations of refugial areas inferred from our phylogeographic analyses and revealed some environmental differences between the regions inhabited by its two subclades. Our study underscores the role of geographic isolation in promoting genetic divergence and the evolution of endemic subspecies in R. integrifolia. Furthermore, our phylogenetic analyses of the plastid spacer region trnL-F demonstrate that among the native North American species, R. integrifolia and R. rhodantha are more closely related to one another than either is to R. rosea. An understanding of these historic processes lies at the heart of making informed management decisions regarding this and other Arctic-alpine species of concern in this increasingly threatened biome.

On the evolutionary and biogeographic history of Saxifraga sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch (Saxifragaceae Juss.).

Arctic-alpine plants in the genus Saxifraga L. (Saxifragaceae Juss.) provide an excellent system for investigating the process of diversification in northern regions. Yet, sect. Trachyphyllum (Gaud.) Koch, which is comprised of about 8 to 26 species, has still not been explored by molecular systematists even though taxonomists concur that the section needs to be thoroughly re-examined. Our goals were to use chloroplast trnL-F and nuclear ITS DNA sequence data to circumscribe the section phylogenetically, test models of geographically-based population divergence, and assess the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships. To do so, we sequenced both genetic markers for 19 taxa within the section. The phylogenetic inferences of sect. Trachyphyllum using maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses showed that the section is polyphyletic, with S. aspera L. and S bryoides L. falling outside the main clade. In addition, the analyses supported several taxonomic re-classifications to prior names. We used two approaches to test biogeographic hypotheses: i) a coalescent approach in Mesquite to test the fit of our reconstructed gene trees to geographically-based models of population divergence and ii) a maximum likelihood inference in Lagrange. These tests uncovered strong support for an origin of the clade in the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America followed by dispersal and divergence episodes across refugia. Finally we adopted a stochastic character mapping approach in SIMMAP to investigate the utility of morphological characters in estimating evolutionary relationships among taxa. We found that few morphological characters were phylogenetically informative and many were misleading. Our molecular analyses provide a foundation for the diversity and evolutionary relationships within sect. Trachyphyllum and hypotheses for better understanding the patterns and processes of divergence in this section, other saxifrages, and plants inhabiting the North Pacific Rim.

Resolving the evolutionary history of Campanula (Campanulaceae) in western North America.

Recent phylogenetic works have begun to address long-standing questions regarding the systematics of Campanula (Campanulaceae). Yet, aspects of the evolutionary history, particularly in northwestern North America, remain unresolved. Thus, our primary goal in this study was to infer the phylogenetic positions of northwestern Campanula species within the greater Campanuloideae tree. We combined new sequence data from 5 markers (atpB, rbcL, matK, and trnL-F regions of the chloroplast and the nuclear ITS) representing 12 species of Campanula with previously published datasets for worldwide campanuloids, allowing us to include approximately 75% of North American Campanuleae in a phylogenetic analysis of the Campanuloideae. Because all but one of North American Campanula species are nested within a single campanuloid subclade (the Rapunculus clade), we conducted a separate set of analyses focused specifically on this group. Our findings show that i) the campanuloids have colonized North America at least 6 times, 4 of which led to radiations, ii) all but one North American campanuloid are nested within the Rapunculus clade, iii) in northwestern North America, a C. piperi-C. lasiocarpa ancestor gave rise to a monophyletic Cordilleran clade that is sister to a clade containing C. rotundifolia, iv) within the Cordilleran clade, C. parryi var. parryi and C. parryi var. idahoensis exhibit a deep, species-level genetic divergence, and v) C. rotundifolia is genetically diverse across its range and polyphyletic. Potential causes of diversification and endemism in northwestern North America are discussed.

Diversity and demography in Beringia: multilocus tests of paleodistribution models reveal the complex history of arctic ground squirrels.

To assess effects of historical climate change on northern species, we quantified the population history of the arctic ground squirrel (Spermophilus parryii), an arctic-adapted rodent that evolved in Beringia and was strongly influenced by climatic oscillations of the Quaternary. Competing hypotheses for the species' population history were derived from patterns of mitochondrial (mtDNA) structure and a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM). Hypotheses invoked (1) sequential isolation of regional populations beginning with the Arctic, (2) deep isolation only across central Alaska, and (3) widespread panmixia, and were tested using coalescent methods applied to eight nuclear (nDNA) loci. The data rejected strict interpretations of all three hypotheses, but perspectives underlying each encompassed aspects of the species' history. Concordance between mtDNA and nDNA geographic structure revealed three semi-independently evolving phylogroups, whereas signatures of gene flow at nDNA loci were consistent with a historical contact between certain populations as inferred by the BEM. Demographic growth was inferred for all regions despite expectations of postglacial habitat contraction for parts of Beringia. Our results highlight the complementary perspectives on species' histories that multiple lines of evidence provide, and underscore the utility of multilocus data for resolving complex population histories relevant to understanding effects of climate change.

Free-living tube worm endosymbionts found at deep-sea vents.

Recent evidence suggests that deep-sea vestimentiferan tube worms acquire their endosymbiotic bacteria from the environment each generation; thus, free-living symbionts should exist. Here, free-living tube worm symbiont phylotypes were detected in vent seawater and in biofilms at multiple deep-sea vent habitats by PCR amplification, DNA sequence analysis, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. These findings support environmental transmission as a means of symbiont acquisition for deep-sea tube worms.

Off-axis symbiosis found: Characterization and biogeography of bacterial symbionts of Bathymodiolus mussels from Lost City hydrothermal vents.

Organisms at hydrothermal vents inhabit discontinuous chemical 'islands' along mid-ocean ridges, a scenario that may promote genetic divergence among populations. The 2003 discovery of mussels at the Lost City Hydrothermal Field provided a means of evaluating factors that govern the biogeography of symbiotic bacteria in the deep sea. The unusual chemical composition of vent fluids, the remote location, and paucity of characteristic vent macrofauna at the site, raised the question of whether microbial symbioses existed at the extraordinary Lost City. If so, how did symbiotic bacteria therein relate to those hosted by invertebrates at the closest known hydrothermal vents along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR)? To answer these questions, we performed microscopic and molecular analyses on the bacteria found within the gill tissue of Bathymodiolus mussels (Mytilidae, Bathymodiolinae) that were discovered at the Lost City. Here we show that Lost City mussels harbour chemoautotrophic and methanotrophic endosymbionts simultaneously. Furthermore, populations of the chemoautotrophic symbionts from the Lost City and two sites along the MAR are genetically distinct from each other, which suggests spatial isolation of bacteria in the deep sea. These findings provide new insights into the processes that drive diversification of bacteria and evolution of symbioses at hydrothermal vents.

A dual symbiosis shared by two mussel species, Bathymodiolus azoricus and Bathymodiolus puteoserpentis (Bivalvia: Mytilidae), from hydrothermal vents along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

Bathymodiolus azoricus and Bathymodiolus puteoserpentis are symbiont-bearing mussels that dominate hydrothermal vent sites along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Both species live in symbiosis with two physiologically and phylogenetically distinct Gammaproteobacteria: a sulfur-oxidizing chemoautotroph and a methane-oxidizer. A detailed analysis of mussels collected from four MAR vent sites (Menez Gwen, Lucky Strike, Rainbow, and Logatchev) using comparative 16S rRNA sequence analysis and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) showed that the two mussel species share highly similar to identical symbiont phylotypes. FISH observations of symbiont distribution and relative abundances showed no obvious differences between the two host species. In contrast, distinct differences in relative symbiont abundances were observed between mussels from different sites, indicating that vent chemistry may influence the relative abundance of thiotrophs and methanotrophs in these dual symbioses.

Using coalescent simulations to test the impact of quaternary climate cycles on divergence in an alpine plant-insect association.

The Quaternary climate cycles forced species to repeatedly migrate across a continually changing landscape. How these shifts in distribution impacted the evolution of unrelated but ecologically associated taxa has remained elusive due to the stochastic nature of the evolutionary process and variation in species-specific biological characteristics and environmental constraints. To account for the uncertainty in genealogical estimates, we adopted a coalescent approach for testing hypotheses of population divergence in coevolving taxa. We compared genealogies of a specialized herbivorous insect, Parnassius smintheus (Papilionidae), and its host plant, Sedum lanceolatum (Crassulaceae), from the alpine tundra of the Rocky Mountains to null distributions from coalescent simulations to test whether tightly associated taxa shared a common response to the paleoclimatic cycles. Explicit phylogeographic models were generated from geologic and biogeographic data and evaluated over a wide range of divergence times given calibrated mutation rates for both species. Our analyses suggest that the insect and its host plant responded similarly but independently to the climate cycles. By promoting habitat expansion and mixing among alpine populations, glacial periods repeatedly reset the distributions of genetic variation in each species and inhibited continual codivergence among pairs of interacting species.

Symbioses of methanotrophs and deep-sea mussels (Mytilidae: Bathymodiolinae).

The symbioses between invertebrates and chemosynthetic bacteria allow both host and symbiont to colonize and thrive in otherwise inhospitable deep-sea habitats. Given the global distribution of the bathymodioline symbioses, this association is an excellent model for evaluating co-speciation and evolution of symbioses. Thus far, the methanotroph and chemoautotroph endosymbionts of mussels are tightly clustered within two independent clades of gamma Proteobacteria, respectively. Further physiological and genomic studies will elucidate the ecological and evolutionary roles that these bacterial clades play in the symbiosis and chemosynthetic community. Due to the overall abundance of the methanotrophic symbioses at hydrothermal vents and hydrocarbon seeps, they likely play a significant, but as of yet unquantified, role in the biogeochemical cycling of methane. With this in mind, the search for methanotrophic symbioses should not be restricted to these known deep-sea habitats, but rather should be expanded to include methane-rich coastal marine and freshwater environments inhabited by methanotrophs and bivalves. Our current understanding of the bathymodioline symbioses provides a strong foundation for future explorations into the origin, ecology, and evolution of methanotroph symbioses, which are now becoming possible through a combination of classical and advanced molecular techniques.

Marked genetic divergence among sky island populations of Sedum lanceolatum (Crassulaceae) in the Rocky Mountains.

Climate change during the Quaternary played an important role in the differentiation and evolution of plants. A prevailing hypothesis is that alpine and arctic species survived glacial periods in refugia at the periphery of glaciers. Though the Rocky Mountains, south of the southernmost extent of continental ice, served as an important glacial refuge, little is known about how climate cycles influenced populations within this region. We inferred the phylogeography of Sedum lanceolatum (Crassulaceae) within the Rocky Mountain refugium to assess how this high-elevation plant responded to glacial cycles. We sequenced 884 base pairs (bp) of cpDNA intergenic spacers (tRNA-L to tRNA-F and tRNA-S to tRNA-G) for 333 individuals from 18 alpine populations. Our highly variable markers allowed us to infer that populations persisted across the latitudinal range throughout the climate cycles, exhibited significant genetic structure, and experienced cycles of range expansion and fragmentation. Genetic differentiation in S. lanceolatum was most likely a product of short-distance elevational migration in response to climate change, low seed dispersal, and vegetative reproduction. To the extent that Sedum is a good model system, paleoclimatic cycles were probably a major factor preserving genetic variation and promoting divergence in high-elevation flora of the Rocky Mountains.

Historic cycles of fragmentation and expansion in Parnassius smintheus (papilionidae) inferred using mitochondrial DNA.

Climate oscillations of the Quaternary drove the repeated expansion and contraction of ecosystems. Alpine organisms were probably isolated in sky island refugia during warm interglacials, such as now, and expanded their range by migrating down-slope during glacial periods. We used population genetic and phylogenetic approaches to infer how paleoclimatic events influenced the distribution of genetic variation in the predominantly alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus. We sequenced a 789 bp region of cytochrome oxidase I for 385 individuals from 20 locations throughout the Rocky Mountains, ranging from southern Colorado to northern Montana. Analyses revealed at lease two centers of diversity in the northern and southern Rocky Mountains and strong population structure. Nested clade analysis suggested that the species experienced repeated cycles of population expansion and fragmentation. The estimated ages of these events, assuming a molecular clock, corresponded with paleoclimatic data on habitat expansion and contraction over the past 400,000 years. We propose that alpine butterflies persisted in an archipelago of isolated sky islands during interglacials and that populations expanded and became more connected during cold glacial periods. An archipelago model implies that the effects of genetic drift and selection varied among populations, depending on their latitude, area, and local environment. Alpine organisms are sensitive indicators of climate change and their history can be used to predict how high-elevation ecosystems might respond to further climate warming.