A New Interpretation of Relative Importance on an Analysis of Per and Polyfluorinated Alkyl Substances (PFAS) Exposures on Bone Mineral Density.

BACKGROUND: The relative contribution of environmental contaminants is an important, and frequently unanswered, question in human or ecological risk assessments. This interpretation of relative importance allows determination of the overall effect of a set of variables relative to other variables on an adverse health outcome. There are no underlying assumptions of independence of variables. The tool developed and used here is specifically designed for studying the effects of mixtures of chemicals on a particular function of the human body. METHODS: We apply the approach to estimate the contributions of total exposure to six PFAS (perfluorodecanoic acid, perfluorohexane sulfonic acid, 2-(N-methyl-PFOSA) acetate, perfluorononanoic acid, perfluoroundecanoic acid and perfluoroundecanoic acid) to loss of bone mineral density relative to other factors related to risk of osteoporosis and bone fracture, using data from subjects who participated in the US National Health Examination and Nutrition Surveys (NHANES) of 2013-2014. RESULTS: PFAS exposures contribute to bone mineral density changes relative to the following variables: age, weight, height, vitamin D2 and D3, gender, race, sex hormone binding globulin, testosterone, and estradiol. CONCLUSION: We note significant alterations to bone mineral density among more highly exposed adults and significant differences in effects between men and women.

Predicting Long-Term Asbestos Prevalence in Human Lungs, Lymph Nodes, and Remote Organs from Short-Term Murine Experiments.

Inhalation of asbestos fibers leads to a suite of fatal diseases that can manifest years, if not decades, after cessation of exposure. The first phase of disease progression occurs as fibers are transported from point of entry in the lungs throughout the entire body. A mathematical model is developed for the disposition of non-chrysotile asbestos in the body and, except for exposure levels, is parameterized by published data on short-term rat experiments. Asbestos exposure in individual humans is determined by matching published long-term lung data for nine patients. The resulting model predicts transport of fibers within the lymphatic system and prevalence of fibers in lymph nodes for these patients with reasonable accuracy. Model predictions for remote organs are compared against published observations. The model consists of a system of globally stable differential equations, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model indicates that fiber density in lymph nodes is correlated with total exposure, level times duration, no matter whether there is a long-term, low-level exposure or short-term, high-level exposure. The model predicts that levels of sequestered asbestos reach steady state within five years of cessation of exposure, a timeline previously not known. The model suggests that the time to steady state is short compared to onset of disease, and that delayed onset of related disease may be a function of chemical and biological processes not in this model.

A dynamical model of the transport of asbestos fibres in the human body.

We present a model for the transport of a single type of asbestos fibre through the human body. The model captures the transport modes that pertain particularly to the lungs and the mesothelium. Numerical solutions of the system follow observed movement in the body. We compare the accumulation of fibres in the lungs versus the mesothelium, and then we give analysis and results for various cases of exposure level and exposure time. Models, such as the one developed here, can give clues as to how asbestos fibres impact the body, and where to look for major impact.