Optimizing the assessment of pediatric injury severity in low-resource settings: Consensus generation through a modified Delphi analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Although a plethora of pediatric injury severity scoring systems is available, many of them present important challenges and limitations in the low resource setting. Our aim is to generate consensus among a group of experts regarding the optimal parameters, outcomes, and methods of estimating injury severity for pediatric trauma patients in low resource settings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and compare existing injury scores used in pediatric patients. Qualitative data was extracted from the systematic review, including scoring parameters, settings and outcomes. In order to establish consensus regarding which of these elements are most adapted to pediatric patients in low-resource settings, they were subjected to a modified Delphi survey for external validation. The Delphi process is a structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts to develop a systematic, interactive consensus method. We invited a group of 38 experts, including adult and pediatric surgeons, emergency physicians and anesthesiologists trauma team leaders from a level 1 trauma center in Montreal, Canada, and a pediatric referral trauma hospital in Santiago, Chile to participate in two successive rounds of our survey. RESULTS: Consensus was reached regarding various features of an ideal pediatric trauma score. Specifically, our experts agreed pediatric trauma scoring tool should differ from its adult counterpart, that it can be derived from point of care data available at first assessment, that blood pressure is an important variable to include in a predictive model for pediatric trauma outcomes, that blood pressure is a late but specific marker of shock in pediatric patients, that pulse rate is a more sensitive marker of hemodynamic instability than blood pressure, that an assessment of airway status should be included as a predictive variable for pediatric trauma outcomes, that the AVPU classification of neurologic status is simple and reliable in the acute setting, and more so than GCS at all ages. CONCLUSION: Therefore, we conclude that an opportunity exists to develop a new pediatric trauma score, combining the above consensus-generating ideas, that would be best adapted for use in low-resource settings.

Systematic review and need assessment of pediatric trauma outcome benchmarking tools for low-resource settings.

INTRODUCTION: Trauma is a leading cause of mortality and disability in children worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that 95% of all childhood injury deaths occur in Low-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Injury scores have been developed to facilitate risk stratification, clinical decision making, and research. Trauma registries in LMIC depend on adapted trauma scores that do not rely on investigations that require unavailable material or human resources. We sought to review and assess the existing trauma scores used in pediatric patients. Our objective is to determine their wideness of use, validity, setting of use, outcome measures, and criticisms. We believe that there is a need for an adapted trauma score developed specifically for pediatric patients in low-resource settings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and compare existing injury scores used in pediatric patients. We constructed a search strategy in collaboration with a senior hospital librarian. Multiple databases were searched, including Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Articles were selected based on predefined inclusion criteria by two reviewers and underwent qualitative analysis. RESULTS: The scores identified are suboptimal for use in pediatric patients in low-resource settings due to various factors, including reliance on precise anatomic diagnosis, physiologic parameters maladapted to pediatric patients, or laboratory data with inconsistent accessibility in LMIC. CONCLUSION: An important gap exists in our ability to simply and reliably estimate injury severity in pediatric patients and predict their associated probability of outcomes in settings, where resources are limited. An ideal score should be easy to calculate using point-of-care data that are readily available in LMIC, and can be easily adapted to the specific physiologic variations of different age groups.

Predictors of mortality and morbidity for acute care surgery patients.

BACKGROUND: As the implementation of exclusive acute care surgery (ACS) services thrives, prognostication for mortality and morbidity will be important to complement clinical management of these diverse and complex patients. Our objective is to investigate prognostic risk factors from patient level characteristics and clinical presentation to predict outcomes including mortality, postoperative complications, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and prolonged duration of hospital stay. METHODS: Retrospective review of all emergency general surgery admissions over a 1-year period at a large teaching hospital was conducted. Factors collected included history of present illness, physical exam and laboratory parameters at presentation. Univariate analysis was performed to examine the relationship between each variable and our outcomes with chi-square for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon rank-sum statistic for continuous variables. Multivariate analysis was performed using backward stepwise logistic regression to evaluate for independent predictors. RESULTS: A total of 527 ACS admissions were identified with 8.1% requiring ICU stay and an overall crude mortality rate of 3.04%. Operative management was required in 258 patients with 22% having postoperative complications. Use of anti-coagulants, systolic blood pressure <90, hypothermia and leukopenia were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Leukopenia, smoking and tachycardia at presentation were also prognostic for the development of postoperative complications. For ICU admission, use of anti-coagulants, leukopenia, leukocytosis and tachypnea at presentation were all independent predictive factors. A prolonged length of stay was associated with increasing age, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists class, tachycardia and presence of complications on multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Factors present at initial presentation can be used to predict morbidity and mortality in ACS patients.