Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions.

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize's pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize's updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

Prioritizing forest management actions to benefit marine habitats in data-poor regions.

Land-use change is considered one of the greatest human threats to marine ecosystems globally. Given limited resources for conservation, we adapted and scaled up a spatially explicit, linked land-sea decision support tool using open access global geospatial data sets and software to inform the prioritization of future forest management interventions that can have the greatest benefit on marine conservation in Vanuatu. We leveraged and compared outputs from two global marine habitat maps to prioritize land areas for forest conservation and restoration that can maximize sediment retention, water quality, and healthy coastal/marine ecosystems. By combining the outputs obtained from both marine habitat maps, we incorporated elements unique to each and provided higher confidence in our prioritization results. Regardless of marine habitat data source, prioritized areas were mostly located in watersheds on the windward side of the large high islands, exposed to higher tropical rainfall, upstream from large sections of coral reef and seagrass habitats, and thus vulnerable to human-driven land use change. Forest protection and restoration in these areas will serve to maintain clean water and healthy, productive habitats through sediment retention, supporting the wellbeing of neighboring communities. The nationwide application of this linked land-sea tool can help managers prioritize watershed-based management actions based on quantitative synergies and trade-offs across terrestrial and marine ecosystems in data-poor regions. The framework developed here will guide the implementation of ridge-to-reef management across the Pacific region and beyond.

Priorización de la Conservación y Restauración de los Bosques para Beneficio de los Ecosistemas Marinos en Regiones con Deficiencia de Datos Resumen Dados los recursos limitados para la conservación, adaptamos y ampliamos una herramienta de apoyo para la toma de decisiones que es espacialmente explícita y que conecta las decisiones de manejo de los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos. Usamos conjuntos de datos geoespaciales globales de acceso abierto y software para orientar la priorización de las futuras intervenciones de manejo de bosques que pueden tener el mayor beneficio para la conservación marina en Vanuatu (Oceanía). Comparamos la información de dos mapas mundiales de hábitats marinos para maximizar la retención de sedimentos, la calidad del agua y los ecosistemas marinos y costeros funcionales. Mediante la combinación de la información obtenida de ambos mapas, incorporamos elementos únicos para cada uno y proporcionamos una mayor confianza a los resultados de priorización; los sitios prioritarios para la restauración fueron más sensibles a la fuente de datos para el mapeo de los hábitats. Sin importar la fuente de los datos sobre los hábitats marinos, las áreas priorizadas estuvieron ubicadas principalmente en las vertientes del lado de barlovento de las islas mayores y elevadas, las cuales están expuestas a una precipitación tropical más alta, río arriba de grandes secciones de hábitats de arrecife de coral y de pastos marinos. Por lo tanto, estas áreas son vulnerables a los efectos antropogénicos (p. ej.: cambio en el uso de suelo). La protección y restauración de los bosques en estas áreas puede mantener limpia el agua y a los ecosistemas funcionales y productivos por medio de la retención de sedimentos, la cual ayuda al bienestar de las comunidades aledañas. La aplicación en todo el país de esta herramienta vinculante tierra-mar puede ayudar a los gestores a priorizar las acciones de manejo de vertientes basadas en las sinergias cuantitativas y las compensaciones en los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos en las regiones con deficiencia de datos. Nuestro esquema puede usarse para guiar la implementación del manejo de tierra a mar en toda la región del Pacífico y en otras más.

Identifying wastewater management tradeoffs: Costs, nearshore water quality, and implications for marine coastal ecosystems in Kona, Hawai'i.

Untreated and minimally treated wastewater discharged into the environment have the potential to adversely affect groundwater dependent ecosystems and nearshore marine health. Addressing this issue requires a systems approach that links land use and wastewater management decisions to potential impacts on the nearshore marine environment via changes in water quality and quantity. To that end, a framework was developed to assess decisions that have cascading effects across multiple elements of the ridge-to-reef system. In an application to Kona (Hawai'i, USA), eight land use and wastewater management scenarios were evaluated in terms of wastewater system upgrade costs and wastewater related nutrient loads in groundwater, which eventually discharge to nearshore waters, resulting in potential impacts to marine habitat quality. Without any upgrades of cesspools or the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), discharges of nutrients are expected to increase substantially with permitted development, with potential detrimental impacts to the marine environment. Results suggest that converting all of the existing cesspools to aerobic treatment units (ATU) and upgrading the existing WWTP to R-1 quality provide the highest protection to nearshore marine habitat at a cost of $569 million in present value terms. Other wastewater management options were less effective but also less costly. For example, targeted cesspool conversion (a combination of septic and ATU installation) in conjunction with the WWTP upgrade still provided a substantial reduction in nutrients and potential impacts to marine habitat quality relative to the present situation at a price point roughly $100 million less than the entirely ATU option. Of note, results were more sensitive to the inclusion of the WWTP upgrade option than they were to assumptions regarding the efficiency of the cesspool conversion technologies. The model outputs also suggest that the spatial distribution of potential impacts should be carefully considered when comparing different wastewater management scenarios. When evaluated separately, the WWTP option reduced total nutrients by more than the targeted cesspool conversion option at a fraction of the cost. However, potential improvements in marine habitat quality only occurred in the immediate vicinity of the WWTP, whereas the benefits under targeted cesspool conversion were more evenly distributed along the coast.

Incorporating reef fish avoidance behavior improves accuracy of species distribution models.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to interpret and map fish distributions based on habitat variables and other drivers. Reef fish avoidance behavior has been shown to vary in the presence of divers and is primarily driven by spearfishing pressure. Diver avoidance behavior or fish wariness may spatially influence counts and other descriptive measures of fish assemblages. Because fish assemblage metrics are response variables for SDMs, measures of fish wariness may be useful as predictors in SDMs of fishes targeted by spearfishing. We used a diver operated stereo-video system to conduct fish surveys and record minimum approach distance (MAD) of targeted reef fishes inside and outside of two marine reserves on the island of O'ahu in the main Hawaiian Islands. By comparing MAD between sites and management types we tested the assumption that it provides a proxy for fish wariness related to spearfishing pressure. We then compared the accuracy of SDMs which included MAD as a predictor with SDMs that did not. Individual measures of MAD differed between sites though not management types. When included as a predictor, MAD averaged at the transect level greatly improved the accuracy of SDMs of targeted fish biomass.

Publisher Correction: Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Place-based management can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in a changing climate.

Declining natural resources have contributed to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. We applied a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples groundwater nutrient export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of community-led marine closures, land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Ha'ena and Ka'upulehu, located at opposite ends of the Hawaiian Archipelago to investigate the effects of coastal development and marine closures on coral reefs in the face of climate change. Our results indicated that projected coastal development and bleaching can result in a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality and community-led marine closures can result in a significant increase in fish biomass. In general, Ka'upulehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Ha'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power, except for the shallow and wave-sheltered back-reef areas of Ha'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes. By coupling spatially explicit land-sea models with scenario planning, we identified priority areas on land where upgrading cesspools can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in the face of projected climate change impacts.

Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods.

Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called "bathtub" approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawai'i (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the "bathtub" approach, alone, ignores 35-54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust SLR vulnerability assessment. Results also indicate that as sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities. The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of ~0.3 or 0.6 m, depending on location. At ~1 m of SLR, land that is roughly seven times the total modern beach area is exposed to one or more hazards. Projected increases in extent, magnitude, and rate of persistent SLR impacts suggest an urgency to engage in long-term planning immediately.

A linked land-sea modeling framework to inform ridge-to-reef management in high oceanic islands.

Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling framework based on local data, which coupled groundwater and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution, to determine the effects of terrestrial drivers (groundwater and nutrients), mediated by human activities (land cover/use), and marine drivers (waves, geography, and habitat) on coral reefs. We applied this framework in two 'ridge-to-reef' systems (Ha'ena and Ka'upulehu) subject to different natural disturbance regimes, located in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our results indicated that coral reefs in Ka'upulehu are coral-dominated with many grazers and scrapers due to low rainfall and wave power. While coral reefs in Ha'ena are dominated by crustose coralline algae with many grazers and less scrapers due to high rainfall and wave power. In general, Ka'upulehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Ha'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power. However, the shallow and wave sheltered back-reef areas of Ha'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes, are also vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching. Anthropogenic sources of nutrients located upstream from these vulnerable areas are relevant locations for nutrient mitigation, such as cesspool upgrades. In this study, we located coral reefs vulnerable to land-based nutrients and linked them to priority areas to manage sources of human-derived nutrients, thereby demonstrating how this framework can inform place-based ridge-to-reef management.

Seascape models reveal places to focus coastal fisheries management.

To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional-scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond which targeted fish assemblages were severely impacted. Topographic complexity, exposure, depth, and wave power were identified as key habitat variables that influenced targeted fish distributions and defined productive habitats for reef fisheries. High targeted reef fish biomass and body length were found in areas not easily accessed by humans, while model predictions when fishing effort was set to zero showed these high values to be more widely dispersed among suitable habitats. By comparing current targeted fish distributions with those predicted when fishing effort was removed, areas with high recovery potential on each island were revealed, with average biomass recovery of 517% and mean body length increases of 59% on Oahu, the most heavily fished island. Spatial protection of these areas would aid recovery of nearshore coral reef fisheries.

Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios.

Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.

Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i.

Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.