[Medical human resources planning in Europe: A literature review of the forecasting models]. / La planification des médecins en Europe : une revue de la littérature des modèles de projection.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare is a labor-intensive sector in which half of the expenses are dedicated to human resources. Therefore, policy makers, at national and internal levels, attend to the number of practicing professionals and the skill mix. This paper aims to analyze the European forecasting model for supply and demand of physicians. METHODS: To describe the forecasting tools used for physician planning in Europe, a grey literature search was done in the OECD, WHO, and European Union libraries. Electronic databases such as Pubmed, Medine, Embase and Econlit were also searched. RESULTS: Quantitative methods for forecasting medical supply rely mainly on stock-and-flow simulations and less often on systemic dynamics. Parameters included in forecasting models exhibit wide variability for data availability and quality. The forecasting of physician needs is limited to healthcare consumption and rarely considers overall needs and service targets. Besides quantitative methods, horizon scanning enables an evaluation of the changes in supply and demand in an uncertain future based on qualitative techniques such as semi-structured interviews, Delphi Panels, or focus groups. Finally, supply and demand forecasting models should be regularly updated. Moreover, post-hoc analyze is also needed but too rarely implemented. CONCLUSION: Medical human resource planning in Europe is inconsistent. Political implementation of the results of forecasting projections is essential to insure efficient planning. However, crucial elements such as mobility data between Member States are poorly understood, impairing medical supply regulation policies. These policies are commonly limited to training regulations, while horizontal and vertical substitution is less frequently taken into consideration.

[Focus on planning the supply of physicians in Belgium]. / Focus sur la planification de l'offre médicale en Belgique.

BACKGROUND: The planning of human medical resources has been in progress since 1996. The aim of this paper is to describe the process which occurred in Belgium and to point out its assets and limits. METHODS: Literature review, analysis of the Belgian legislation at national and community (Flemish and French-speaking) level and analysis of the projection model. RESULTS: In Belgium, planniing is performed at two different levels of power. Firstly, the federal State determines the number of physicians who will access to the professional titles enabling them to obtain reimbursement of care by Health Funds. It is sustained by a supply projection type " stock and flows", an assessment of the number of required physicians (including healthcare expenditures by age and sex) and the purpose of equalizing Dutch-speaking and French-speaking medical densities. Secondly, Communities, are responsible for training and, as such, are organizing the selection at this level : entrance examination in the North and various selection procedures (now repealed) in the South. CONCLUSION: Worldwide, the managers of medical planning are faced with decisions related to appropriate numbers for human resources, given population needs, use of services and professional productivity. They have to address concerns from medical surplus to shortage. The case study of Belgium provides insight of various parameters which should be taken into account for national planning of physicians. It also shows the difficulty to assess a complex future and the factors which often hinder the implementation of evidence-based decisions.

Socio-economic differences in psychiatric in-patient care.

OBJECTIVE: We seek to investigate socio-economic differences in psychiatric in-patient care regarding admission, treatment and outcome. METHOD: This study is undertaken on a comprehensive and exhaustive psychiatric case register of all psychiatric in-patient care carried out in Belgium in 1997 and 1998 (n=144 754). RESULTS: Lower socio-economic groups were more likely to be compulsorily admitted, to be cared for in a non-teaching or psychiatric hospital, to be admitted in a hospital with unexpectedly long average length of stay and to be admitted to a ward with a more severe case-mix. They were less likely to receive antidepressants and psychotherapies. The improvements in functioning and in symptoms were also less favourable for these groups. The lowest group had a higher risk of dying in the hospital. CONCLUSION: Psychiatric in-patient care is associated with moderate socio-economic differences in access, treatment and outcome. Further research is needed to clarify the causes of such disparities.

Socioeconomic inequalities in depression: a meta-analysis.

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is generally associated with high psychiatric morbidity, more disability, and poorer access to health care. Among psychiatric disorders, depression exhibits a more controversial association with SES. The authors carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the magnitude, shape, and modifiers of such an association. The search found 51 prevalence studies, five incidence studies, and four persistence studies meeting the criteria. A random effects model was applied to the odds ratio of the lowest SES group compared with the highest, and meta-regression was used to assess the dose-response relation and the influence of covariates. Results indicated that low-SES individuals had higher odds of being depressed (odds ratio = 1.81, p < 0.001), but the odds of a new episode (odds ratio = 1.24, p = 0.004) were lower than the odds of persisting depression (odds ratio = 2.06, p < 0.001). A dose-response relation was observed for education and income. Socioeconomic inequality in depression is heterogeneous and varies according to the way psychiatric disorder is measured, to the definition and measurement of SES, and to contextual features such as region and time. Nonetheless, the authors found compelling evidence for socioeconomic inequality in depression. Strategies for tackling inequality in depression are needed, especially in relation to the course of the disorder.

Equity in prevention and health care.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: There is an increasing body of evidence about socioeconomic inequality in preventive use, mostly for cancer screening. But as far as needs of prevention are unequally distributed, even equal use may not be fair. Moreover, prevention might be unequally used in the same way as health care in general. The objective of the paper is to assess inequity in prevention and to compare socioeconomic inequity in preventive medicine with that in health care. DESIGN: A cross sectional Health Interview Survey was carried out in 1997 by face to face interview and self administered questionnaire. Two types of health care utilisation were considered (contacts with GPs and with specialists) and four preventive care mostly delivered in a GP setting (flu vaccination, cholesterol screening) or in a specialty setting (mammography and pap smear). SETTING: Belgium. PARTICIPANTS: A representative sample of 7378 residents aged 25 years and over (participation rate: 61%). OUTCOME MEASURE: Socioeconomic inequity was measured by the HI(wvp) index, which is the difference between use inequality and needs inequality. Needs was computed as the expected use by the risk factors or target groups. MAIN RESULTS: There was significant inequity for all medical contacts and preventive medicine. Medical contacts showed inequity favouring the rich for specialist visits and inequity favouring the poor for contacts with GPs. Regarding preventive medicine, inequity was high and favoured the rich for mammography and cervical screening; inequity was lower for flu immunisation and cholesterol screening but still favoured the higher socioeconomic groups. In the general practice setting, inequity in prevention was higher than inequity in health care; in the specialty setting, inequity in prevention was not statistically different from inequity in health care, although it was higher than in the general practice setting. CONCLUSIONS: If inequity in preventive medicine is to be lowered, the role of the GP must be fostered and access to specialty medicine increased, especially for cancer screening.

How to build an information system application to the health domain.

Computer based information systems aim at improving knowledge, evaluation and management processes. Such tools are still developing in the non-profit sector. This paper aims at: a) reminding how to evolve from data to management information systems b) describing how to build a population based health information system c) describing the concepts required for conceiving a retrieval system and a system for inserting data d) documenting the importance of conceiving the system not only from a user driven perspective, but also taking into account the requirements of an information management system.

A classification system of social problems: concepts and influence on GPs' registration of problems.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To test lists of problems in the three axes of well-being (physical, mental, and social) with the GPs' collaboration (2) To place the resulting classification in the context of other ones aiming at collecting data about psycho-social aspects of life (assessment, index and classification systems). (3) To test if GPs would be induced to record psychological and social problems more often in their everyday practice, after having been trained to look more closely at them, inter allia with the use of classification and codes. METHOD: The lists of problems have been initiated by the WHO Department of Mental Health and discussed at an international symposium; they were then tested on the field, first at an international level, then in Belgium. After discussion by 4 Belgian GPs' Teaching Units, they were then improved. In all surveys concerned, general practitioners were asked to collaborate in three ways: opening their usual medical records and collaborating to prospective phases, including one "test phase," i.e., a training session, recording problems with the use of coding lists, and looking for the proper code. Retrospective and prospective approaches were used both before and after this test phase. RESULTS: (1) The original lists of problems have been improved on the basis of the findings in medical files and in the survey. (2) A conceptual framework is presented for recording social problems, either in everyday practice (i.e., in health records) or in research settings, e.g., for social surveys. It is biaxial: domains and types of problem. (3) Training GPs for using such a coding system drastically increases the number of psycho-social problems, but only during the prospective phases. In the long run older habits prevail again; only the overall number of contacts mentioning a reason increases, together with the number of "other" reasons for encounter (requests, ...). CONTENTS: (1) Main concepts (section 1). (2) Various tools for measuring psychosocial problems and well-being (section 2). (3) New conceptual fanmework for a classification of psychosocial problems ( 2.2.3). (4) Using the lists: influence on MDs' recording propensity (section 3).

Deprivation and mortality: the implications of spatial autocorrelation for health resources allocation.

This paper aims at investigating whether the relationship between mortality and socio-economic deprivation is affected by the spatial autocorrelation of ecological data. A simple model is used in which mortality (all-ages and premature) is the dependent variable, and deprivation, morbidity and other socio-economic indicators are the explanatory variables. Deprivation is measured by the Townsend index; the other socio-economic variables are the median income, unequal income distribution (Gini coefficient) and population density. Morbidity is estimated on the basis of hospital admission rates and overweight prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation is measured by the Moran's I coefficient. All mortality and morbidity variables have significant, positive, and moderate-to-high spatial autocorrelation. Two multivariate models are explored: a weighted least-squares model ignoring spatial autocorrelation and a simultaneous autoregressive model. The paper concludes that spatial autocorrelation has a significant impact on the relationship between mortality and socio-economic variables. Future ecological models intended to inform health resources allocation need to pay greater attention to the spatial dimension of the data used.

[Trends in supply and demand for physicians in Belgium]. / L'évolution de l'offre et des besoins en médecins en Belgique.

Belgium is experiencing a strong medical workforce oversupply. At the end of 1998, there were 345 active physicians per 100,000 population and the ratio is even higher in the francophone area of the country (433 active physicians per 100,000 population). Health expenditures are steadily raising. A numerous clauses system was established in the medical schools in 1996 but its will not affect the annual number of graduates before 2004. During the next two decades, for various reasons, population aging will have only a slight effect on the growth of health care expenditures. However, most probably, more doctors will be needed. Given the current manpower oversupply, such forecasts are not easily accepted.