Prognostication of patients with COVID-19 using artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays and clinical data: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chest x-ray is a relatively accessible, inexpensive, fast imaging modality that might be valuable in the prognostication of patients with COVID-19. We aimed to develop and evaluate an artificial intelligence system using chest x-rays and clinical data to predict disease severity and progression in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We did a retrospective study in multiple hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia, PA, USA, and Brown University affiliated hospitals in Providence, RI, USA. Patients who presented to a hospital in the University of Pennsylvania Health System via the emergency department, with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR and with an available chest x-ray from their initial presentation or admission, were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (7:1:2). Using the chest x-rays as input to an EfficientNet deep neural network and clinical data, models were trained to predict the binary outcome of disease severity (ie, critical or non-critical). The deep-learning features extracted from the model and clinical data were used to build time-to-event models to predict the risk of disease progression. The models were externally tested on patients who presented to an independent multicentre institution, Brown University affiliated hospitals, and compared with severity scores provided by radiologists. FINDINGS: 1834 patients who presented via the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 9 and July 20, 2020, were identified and assigned to the model training (n=1285), validation (n=183), or testing (n=366) sets. 475 patients who presented via the Brown University affiliated hospitals between March 1 and July 18, 2020, were identified for external testing of the models. When chest x-rays were added to clinical data for severity prediction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) increased from 0·821 (95% CI 0·796-0·828) to 0·846 (0·815-0·852; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·731 (0·712-0·738) to 0·792 (0·780-0 ·803; p<0·0001) on external testing. When deep-learning features were added to clinical data for progression prediction, the concordance index (C-index) increased from 0·769 (0·755-0·786) to 0·805 (0·800-0·820; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·707 (0·695-0·729) to 0·752 (0·739-0·764; p<0·0001) on external testing. The image and clinical data combined model had significantly better prognostic performance than combined severity scores and clinical data on internal testing (C-index 0·805 vs 0·781; p=0·0002) and external testing (C-index 0·752 vs 0·715; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In patients with COVID-19, artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays had better prognostic performance than clinical data or radiologist-derived severity scores. Using artificial intelligence, chest x-rays can augment clinical data in predicting the risk of progression to critical illness in patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: Brown University, Amazon Web Services Diagnostic Development Initiative, Radiological Society of North America, National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering of the National Institutes of Health.

Deep learning-based classification of primary bone tumors on radiographs: A preliminary study.

BACKGROUND: To develop a deep learning model to classify primary bone tumors from preoperative radiographs and compare performance with radiologists. METHODS: A total of 1356 patients (2899 images) with histologically confirmed primary bone tumors and pre-operative radiographs were identified from five institutions' pathology databases. Manual cropping was performed by radiologists to label the lesions. Binary discriminatory capacity (benign versus not-benign and malignant versus not-malignant) and three-way classification (benign versus intermediate versus malignant) performance of our model were evaluated. The generalizability of our model was investigated on data from external test set. Final model performance was compared with interpretation from five radiologists of varying level of experience using the Permutations tests. FINDINGS: For benign vs. not benign, model achieved area under curve (AUC) of 0•894 and 0•877 on cross-validation and external testing, respectively. For malignant vs. not malignant, model achieved AUC of 0•907 and 0•916 on cross-validation and external testing, respectively. For three-way classification, model achieved 72•1% accuracy vs. 74•6% and 72•1% for the two subspecialists on cross-validation (p = 0•03 and p = 0•52, respectively). On external testing, model achieved 73•4% accuracy vs. 69•3%, 73•4%, 73•1%, 67•9%, and 63•4% for the two subspecialists and three junior radiologists (p = 0•14, p = 0•89, p = 0•93, p = 0•02, p < 0•01 for radiologists 1-5, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Deep learning can classify primary bone tumors using conventional radiographs in a multi-institutional dataset with similar accuracy compared to subspecialists, and better performance than junior radiologists. FUNDING: The project described was supported by RSNA Research & Education Foundation, through grant number RSCH2004 to Harrison X. Bai.