Optimal Nonparametric Inference with Two-Scale Distributional Nearest Neighbors.

The weighted nearest neighbors (WNN) estimator has been popularly used as a flexible and easy-to-implement nonparametric tool for mean regression estimation. The bagging technique is an elegant way to form WNN estimators with weights automatically generated to the nearest neighbors (Steele, 2009; Biau et al., 2010); we name the resulting estimator as the distributional nearest neighbors (DNN) for easy reference. Yet, there is a lack of distributional results for such estimator, limiting its application to statistical inference. Moreover, when the mean regression function has higher-order smoothness, DNN does not achieve the optimal nonparametric convergence rate, mainly because of the bias issue. In this work, we provide an in-depth technical analysis of the DNN, based on which we suggest a bias reduction approach for the DNN estimator by linearly combining two DNN estimators with different subsampling scales, resulting in the novel two-scale DNN (TDNN) estimator. The two-scale DNN estimator has an equivalent representation of WNN with weights admitting explicit forms and some being negative. We prove that, thanks to the use of negative weights, the two-scale DNN estimator enjoys the optimal nonparametric rate of convergence in estimating the regression function under the fourth-order smoothness condition. We further go beyond estimation and establish that the DNN and two-scale DNN are both asymptotically normal as the subsampling scales and sample size diverge to infinity. For the practical implementation, we also provide variance estimators and a distribution estimator using the jackknife and bootstrap techniques for the two-scale DNN. These estimators can be exploited for constructing valid confidence intervals for nonparametric inference of the regression function. The theoretical results and appealing finite-sample performance of the suggested two-scale DNN method are illustrated with several simulation examples and a real data application.

RANK: Large-Scale Inference with Graphical Nonlinear Knockoffs.

Power and reproducibility are key to enabling refined scientific discoveries in contemporary big data applications with general high-dimensional nonlinear models. In this paper, we provide theoretical foundations on the power and robustness for the model-X knockoffs procedure introduced recently in Candès, Fan, Janson and Lv (2018) in high-dimensional setting when the covariate distribution is characterized by Gaussian graphical model. We establish that under mild regularity conditions, the power of the oracle knockoffs procedure with known covariate distribution in high-dimensional linear models is asymptotically one as sample size goes to infinity. When moving away from the ideal case, we suggest the modified model-X knockoffs method called graphical nonlin-ear knockoffs (RANK) to accommodate the unknown covariate distribution. We provide theoretical justifications on the robustness of our modified procedure by showing that the false discovery rate (FDR) is asymptotically controlled at the target level and the power is asymptotically one with the estimated covariate distribution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal theoretical result on the power for the knockoffs procedure. Simulation results demonstrate that compared to existing approaches, our method performs competitively in both FDR control and power. A real data set is analyzed to further assess the performance of the suggested knockoffs procedure.

Nonuniformity of P-values Can Occur Early in Diverging Dimensions.

Evaluating the joint significance of covariates is of fundamental importance in a wide range of applications. To this end, p-values are frequently employed and produced by algorithms that are powered by classical large-sample asymptotic theory. It is well known that the conventional p-values in Gaussian linear model are valid even when the dimensionality is a non-vanishing fraction of the sample size, but can break down when the design matrix becomes singular in higher dimensions or when the error distribution deviates from Gaussianity. A natural question is when the conventional p-values in generalized linear models become invalid in diverging dimensions. We establish that such a breakdown can occur early in nonlinear models. Our theoretical characterizations are confirmed by simulation studies.