The CHA2DS2-VASc Score Predicts New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation and Hemodynamic Complications in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Arrhythmic and hemodynamic complications related to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represent a major clinical challenge. Several scores have been developed to predict mortality in STEMI. However, those scores almost exclusively include factors related to the acute phase of STEMI, and no score has been evaluated to date for its ability to specifically predict arrhythmic and hemodynamic complications. We, thus, aimed to assess the ability of chronic risk factors burden, as expressed by the CHA2DS2-VASc score, to predict STEMI-related arrhythmic and hemodynamic complications. Data were collected from 839 consecutive STEMI patients treated by primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI). CHA2DS2-VASc and GRACE scores were calculated for all patients, and their ability to predict STEMI-related arrhythmic (i.e., new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation) and hemodynamic (i.e., cardiogenic shock, asystole) complications was assessed in univariate and multiple regression analysis. Arrhythmic and hemodynamic complications occurred in 14.8% and 10.2% of patients, respectively. Although the GRACE score outweighed the CHA2DS2-VASc score in the ability to predict STEMI-related hemodynamic complications (p < 0.0001), both scores had a similar predictive value for STEMI-related new-onset AF (p = 0.20), and both remained independent predictors of new-onset AF and of hemodynamic complications in the multiple regression analyses. A CHA2DS2-VASc score > 2 points independently predicted new-onset AF (p < 0.01) and hemodynamic complications (p = 0.04). Alongside the GRACE score, the CHA2DS2-VASc score independently predicted new-onset AF and hemodynamic complications in STEMI patients treated by pPCI. These data suggest that a combination of acute and chronic risk factors could provide additional benefit in identifying patients at risk of STEMI-related complications, who could benefit from closer follow-up and more intensive prophylactic and therapeutic strategies.

Prediction of 3-year all-cause and cardiovascular cause mortality in a prospective percutaneous coronary intervention registry: Machine learning model outperforms conventional clinical risk scores.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Machine learning (ML) models have been proposed as a prognostic clinical tool and superiority over clinical risk scores is yet to be established. Our aim was to analyse the performance of predicting 3-year all-cause- and cardiovascular cause mortality using ML techniques and compare it with clinical scores in a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) population. METHODS: An all-comers patient population treated by PCI in a tertiary cardiovascular centre that have been included prospectively in the local registry between January 2016-December 2017 was analysed. The ML model was trained to predict 3-year mortality and prediction performance was compared with that of GRACE, ACEF, SYNTAX II 2020 and TIMI scores. RESULTS: A total number of 2242 patients were included with 12.1% and 14.9% 3-year cardiovascular and -all-cause mortality, respectively. The area under receiver operator characteristic curve for the ML model was higher than that of GRACE, ACEF, SYNTAX II and TIMI scores: 0.886 vs. 0.797, 0.792, 0.757 and 0.696 for 3-year cardiovascular- and 0.854 vs. 0.762, 0.764, 0.730 and 0.691 for 3-year all-cause mortality prediction, respectively (all p ≤ 0.001). Similarly, the area under precision-recall curve for the ML model was higher than that of GRACE, ACEF, SYNTAX II and TIMI scores: 0.729 vs. 0.474, 0.469, 0.365 and 0.389 for 3-year cardiovascular- and 0.718 vs. 0.483, 0.466, 0.388 and 0.395 for 3-year all-cause mortality prediction, respectively (all p ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: The ML model was superior in predicting 3-year cardiovascular- and all-cause mortality when compared to clinical scores in a prospective PCI registry.

Renal dysfunction is associated with lower incidence of positive fractional flow reserve values in patients with severe hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Renal dysfunction, an important predictor of cardiovascular mortality, is paradoxically associated with a lower incidence of positive coronary fractional flow reserve (FFR) values, possibly due to renal disease-associated myocardial microvascular dysfunction. It is unknown if this relationship is influenced by arterial hypertension, a condition strongly associated with renal- and microvascular dysfunction. METHODS: The incidence of positive (<0.81) FFR values was retrospectively evaluated in consecutive patients with intermediate severity coronary artery lesions that were either associating or not associating renal dysfunction (creatinine clearance, CrCl <90 mL/min/1.73 m2), and had mild/moderate or severe arterial hypertension (treated by <3 or ≥3 different drugs). RESULTS: Positive FFR values were found in 49.5% of the 109 included patients, with a significantly lower incidence in those with renal dysfunction: 23 vs. 31 cases (39.7% vs. 60.8%, P=0.03). However, uni- and multivariate subpopulation analysis evidenced that renal dysfunction was a significant independent predictor of fewer positive FFR results only in severely hypertensive patients (univariate P values for mild/moderate and severe hypertension: 0.80 and <0.01, respectively; multivariate P in severely hypertensive patients: 0.04). This categorization significantly restricted the number of borderline FFR results (0.75-0.80) where measurement interpretation could be challenging because of renal dysfunction (from 13.8% to 4.6% of the whole study population, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In the current study renal dysfunction was independently associated with a significantly higher incidence of negative FFR results in patients with intermediate severity coronary artery lesions only in the presence of severe arterial hypertension. This observation should be confirmed by large-scale prospective clinical trials.

Chronic kidney disease predicts atrial fibrillation in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) often complicates ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Predictors of AF in this setting include factors related to the acute phase of STEMI and pre-existing conditions. More recently, novel AF predictors have been identified in the general population. We aimed to assess the ability of such novel factors to predict STEMI-related AF.Methods: Data were collected from STEMI patients treated by primary PCI. Factors related to the acute phase of STEMI (Killip class, heart rate, blood pressure on admission, post-PCI TIMI flow), classic (age, hypertension, heart failure, previous myocardial infarction), and more novel (body mass index [BMI], diabetes, chronic kidney disease [CKD], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD]) AF predictors were evaluated. The ability of these novel factors to predict STEMI-related AF was assessed.Results: Of the 629 studied patients, 10.5% presented STEMI-related AF. AF patients had higher Killip class on admission (p < .0001) and lower post-PCI TIMI flow (p < .01), they were older (p < .0001) and more likely to have a history of heart failure (p = .02) and myocardial infarction (p = .04). BMI, history of diabetes and COPD were similar between patients with and without AF (all p > .05), but CKD was more common in AF patients (p < .0001). In multiple regression analysis, CKD remained a strong independent predictor of STEMI-related AF (p < .0001).Conclusion: Irrespective of other factors, CKD was associated with increased risk of STEMI-related AF. CKD could be used to identify patients who will develop AF in this setting and who would benefit from closer follow-up and more intensive prophylactic strategies.

Impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on in-hospital morbidity and mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are less likely to beneficiate of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI), and have poorer prognosis. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COPD on the in-hospital outcomes of pPCI-treated STEMI patients. METHODS: Data were collected from 418 STEMI patients treated by pPCI. Inotropics and diuretics usage, cardiogenic shock, asystole, kidney dysfunction, and left ventricular ejection fraction were used as markers of hemodynamic complications. Atrial and ventricular fibrillation, conduction disorders, and antiarrhythmics usage were used as markers of arrhythmic complications. In-hospital mortality was evaluated. The associations between these parameters and COPD were assessed. RESULTS: COPD was present in 7.42% of STEMI patients. COPD patients were older (p=0.02) and less likely to receive beta-blockers (OR 0.29; 95%CI 0.13-0.64; p<0.01). They had higher Killip class on admission (p<0.001), received more often inotropics (p<0.001) and diuretics (p<0.01), and presented more often atrial (p=0.01) and ventricular fibrillation (p=0.02). Unadjusted in-hospital mortality was higher in COPD patients (OR 4.18, 95%CI 1.55-11.30, p<0.01). After adjustment for potentially confounding factors except beta-blockers, COPD remained an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (p=0.02). After further adjustment with beta-blocker therapy, no excess mortality was noted in COPD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being treated by pPCI, COPD patients with STEMI are more likely to develop hemodynamic and arrhythmic complications, and have higher in-hospital mortality. This appears to be due to lower beta-blockers usage in COPD patients. Increasing beta-blockers usage in COPD patients with STEMI may improve survival.

Clinical risk scores predict procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

OBJECTIVE: The predictive value of five risk score models containing clinical (PAMI-PMS, GRACE-GRS, and modified ACEF-ACEFm-scores), angiographic SYNTAX score (SXS) and combined Clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) variables were evaluated for the incidence of three procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI): iatrogenic coronary artery dissection, angiographically visible distal embolization and angiographic no-reflow phenomenon. METHODS: The mentioned scores and the incidence of procedural complications were retrospectively analyzed in 399 consecutive patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction who underwent pPCI. RESULTS: Coronary dissection, distal embolization and no-reflow occurred in 39 (9.77%), 71 (17.79%), and 108 (27.07%) subjects, respectively. Coronary dissections were significantly associated with higher GRS, ACEFm, and CSS values (all p<0.05). PMS, GRS, ACEFm, and CSS were significantly higher in patients with no-reflow (all p<0.05), while distal embolization was not predicted by any of the calculated scores. In multiple logistic regression models, GRS and ACEFm remained independent predictors of both coronary dissections (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.56-6.54, p<0.01 and OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.27-6.45, p=0.01, respectively) and no-reflow (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.04-2.82, p=0.03 and OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10-3.14, p=0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: Whereas SXS failed to predict procedural complications related to pPCI, two simple, noninvasive risk models, GRS and ACEFm, independently predicted coronary dissections and no-reflow. Pre-interventional assessment of these scores may help the interventional cardiologist to prepare for procedural complications during pPCI.