A Measurement-Model Fusion Approach for Improved Wet Deposition Maps and Trends.

Air quality models provide spatial fields of wet deposition (WD) and dry deposition that explicitly account for the transport and transformation of emissions from thousands of sources. However, many sources of uncertainty in the air quality model including errors in emissions and meteorological inputs (particularly precipitation) and incomplete descriptions of the chemical and physical processes governing deposition can lead to bias and error in the simulation of WD. We present an approach to bias correct Community Multiscale Air Quality model output over the contiguous United States using observation-based gridded precipitation data generated by the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model and WD observations at the National Atmospheric Deposition Program National Trends Network sites. A cross-validation analysis shows that the adjusted annual accumulated WD for NO3 -, NH4 +, and SO4 2- from 2002 to 2012 has less bias and higher correlation with observed values than the base model output without adjustment. Temporal trends in observed WD are captured well by the adjusted model simulations across the entire contiguous United States. Consistent with previous trend analyses, WD NO3 - and SO4 2- are shown to decrease during this period in the eastern half of the United States, particularly in the Northeast, while remaining nearly constant in the West. Trends in WD of NH4 + are more spatially and temporally heterogeneous, with some positive trends in the Great Plains and Central Valley of CA and slightly negative trends in the south.

Modeling the combined effects of changing land cover, climate, and atmospheric deposition on nitrogen transport in the Neuse River Basin.

STUDY REGION: The SWAT model was used to estimate the combined effects of changing land cover, climate and Clean Air Act (CAAA)-related atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to watershed nitrogen fate and transport for two watersheds in North Carolina, USA. STUDY FOCUS: Two different model simulation scenarios were applied: one included CAAA-related atmospheric N deposition, climate and land cover (CAAD+C+L) and the other only included CAAA-related N deposition (CAAD) in simulation. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION: Results show both scenarios generated overall decreasing trends for nearly all N outputs between 2010 and 2070 which resulted primarily from CAAA-related reductions in oxidized N deposition. In both watersheds, including climate and land cover change in simulation resulted in a relative 30% higher NO3 load, 30% higher denitrification, 10% higher organic N load and a 20% smaller level of plant N uptake in year 2070 compared to not including climate and landcover changes in simulation. The increases in N transport for both watersheds indicates the combined impacts from climate and land cover change may offset benefits provided by the CAAA regulations; however, future NO3 loads for the Little River watershed were small relative to current N loading rates. Conversely, the increasing NO3 and organic N loads for the nearby Nahunta watershed were significant compared to current rates demonstrating that watershed nutrient responses to climate and land cover changes may vary significantly over relatively small spatial scales.

Atmospheric deposition and exceedances of critical loads from 1800-2025 for the conterminous United States.

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) has increased dramatically over pre-industrial levels, with many potential impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Quantitative thresholds, termed "critical loads" (CLs), have been developed to estimate the deposition rate above which damage is thought to occur. However, there remains no comprehensive comparison of when, where, and over what time periods individual CLs have been exceeded. We addressed this knowledge gap by combining several published data sources for historical and contemporary deposition, and overlaying these on six CL types from the National Critical Loads Database (NCLDv2.5; terrestrial acidification, aquatic acidification, lichen, nitrate leaching, plant community composition, and forest-tree health) to examine exceedances from 1800 to 2011. We expressed CLs as the minimum, 10th, and 50th percentiles within 12-km grid cells. Minimum CLs were relatively uniform across the country (200-400 eq·ha-1 ·yr-1 ), and have been exceeded for decades beginning in the early 20th century. The area exceeding minimum CLs peaked in the 1970s and 1980s, exposing 300,000 to 3 million km2 (depending on the CL type) to harmful levels of deposition, with a total area exceeded of 5.8 million km2 (~70% of the conterminous United States). Since then, deposition levels have dropped, especially for S, with modest reductions in exceedance by 2011 for all CL types, totaling 5.2 million km2 in exceedance. The 10th and 50th percentile CLs followed similar trends, but were not consistently available at the 12-km grid scale. We also examined near-term future deposition and exceedances in 2025 under current air quality regulations, and under various scenarios of climate change and additional nitrogen management controls. Current regulations were projected to reduce exceedances of any CL from 5.2 million km2 in 2011 to 4.8 million km2 in 2025. None of the additional N management or climate scenarios significantly affected areal exceedances, although exceedance severity declined. In total, it is clear that many CLs have been exceeded for decades, and are likely to remain so in the short term under current policies. Additionally, we suggest many areas for improvement to enhance our understanding of deposition and its effects to support informed decision making.

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: influence of crop management, atmospheric deposition, and population growth.

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, agriculture market, air quality, and agriculture land management models to a DIN export model. Future scenarios considered policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy crop production and reducing atmospheric N-emissions, as well as the effect of population growth and the states' infrastructure plans on sewage fluxes. Model-derived DIN export decreased by about 9% (from 279 to 254 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022 due to a 28% increase in area planted with corn, 24% improvement in crop N-recovery efficiency (NRE, to 0.52), 22% reduction in atmospheric N deposition, and 23% increase in sewage inputs. Changes in atmospheric and sewage inputs had a relatively small effect on DIN export and the effect of bioenergy crop production depended on nutrient management practices. Without improved NRE, increased production of corn would have increased DIN export by about 14% (to 289 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022. Model results suggest that meeting future crop demand while reducing the areal extent of hypoxia could require aggressive actions, such improving basin-level crop NRE to 0.62 or upgrading N-removal capabilities in waste water treatment plants beyond current plans. Tile-drained cropland could contribute up to half of DIN export; thus, practices that reduce N losses from tile drains could also have substantial benefit.

Sensitivity of continental United States atmospheric budgets of oxidized and reduced nitrogen to dry deposition parametrizations.

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is removed by surface fluxes (air-surface exchange) and wet deposition. The chemistry and physics of the atmosphere result in a complicated system in which competing chemical sources and sinks exist and impact that removal. Therefore, uncertainties are best examined with complete regional chemical transport models that simulate these feedbacks. We analysed several uncertainties in regional air quality model resistance analogue representations of air-surface exchange for unidirectional and bi-directional fluxes and their effect on the continental Nr budget. Model sensitivity tests of key parameters in dry deposition formulations showed that uncertainty estimates of continental total nitrogen deposition are surprisingly small, 5 per cent or less, owing to feedbacks in the chemistry and rebalancing among removal pathways. The largest uncertainties (5%) occur with the change from a unidirectional to a bi-directional NH3 formulation followed by uncertainties in bi-directional compensation points (1-4%) and unidirectional aerodynamic resistance (2%). Uncertainties have a greater effect at the local scale. Between unidirectional and bi-directional formulations, single grid cell changes can be up to 50 per cent, whereas 84 per cent of the cells have changes less than 30 per cent. For uncertainties within either formulation, single grid cell change can be up to 20 per cent, but for 90 per cent of the cells changes are less than 10 per cent.

The role of the atmosphere in the provision of ecosystem services.

Solving the environmental problems that we are facing today requires holistic approaches to analysis and decision making that include social and economic aspects. The concept of ecosystem services, defined as the benefits people obtain from ecosystems, is one potential tool to perform such assessments. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the need for an integrated approach that explicitly includes the contribution of atmospheric processes and functions to the quantification of air-ecosystem services. First, final and intermediate air-ecosystem services are defined. Next, an ecological production function for clean and clear air is described, and its numerical counterpart (the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) is introduced. An illustrative numerical example is developed that simulates potential changes in air-ecosystem services associated with the conversion of evergreen forest land in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to commercial crop land. This one-atmosphere approach captures a broad range of service increases and decreases. Results for the forest to cropland conversion scenario suggest that although such change could lead to increased biomass (food) production services, there could also be coincident, seasonally variable decreases in clean and clear air-ecosystem services (i.e., increased levels of ozone and particulate matter) associated with increased fertilizer application. Metrics that support the quantification of these regional air-ecosystem changes require regional ecosystem production functions that fully integrate biotic as well as abiotic components of terrestrial ecosystems, and do so on finer temporal scales than are used for the assessment of most ecosystem services.

Ecosystem services altered by human changes in the nitrogen cycle: a new perspective for US decision making.

Human alteration of the nitrogen (N) cycle has produced benefits for health and well-being, but excess N has altered many ecosystems and degraded air and water quality. US regulations mandate protection of the environment in terms that directly connect to ecosystem services. Here, we review the science quantifying effects of N on key ecosystem services, and compare the costs of N-related impacts or mitigation using the metric of cost per unit of N. Damage costs to the provision of clean air, reflected by impaired human respiratory health, are well characterized and fairly high (e.g. costs of ozone and particulate damages of $28 per kg NO(x)-N). Damage to services associated with productivity, biodiversity, recreation and clean water are less certain and although generally lower, these costs are quite variable (<$2.2-56 per kg N). In the current Chesapeake Bay restoration effort, for example, the collection of available damage costs clearly exceeds the projected abatement costs to reduce N loads to the Bay ($8-15 per kg N). Explicit consideration and accounting of effects on multiple ecosystem services provides decision-makers an integrated view of N sources, damages and abatement costs to address the significant challenges associated with reducing N pollution.

Trends in atmospheric reactive nitrogen for the Eastern United States.

Reactive nitrogen can travel far from emission sources and impact sensitive ecosystems. From 2002 to 2006, policy actions have led to decreases in NO(x) emissions from power plants and motor vehicles. In this study, atmospheric chemical transport modeling demonstrates that these emissions reductions have led to a downward trend in ambient measurements of transported reactive nitrogen, especially atmospheric concentrations and wet deposition of nitrate. The trend in reduced nitrogen, namely ammonium, is ambiguous. As reduced nitrogen becomes a larger fraction of the reactive nitrogen budget, wide-spread NH(3) measurements and improved NH(3) emissions assessments are a critical need.

A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING REGIONAL-SCALE NUMERICAL PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING SYSTEMS.

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200-2000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model's credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development, and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper.

Seasonal and regional variations of primary and secondary organic aerosols over the continental United States: semi-empirical estimates and model evaluation.

Seasonal and regional variations of primary (OC(pri)) and secondary (OC(sec)) organic carbon aerosols across the continental United States for the year 2001 were examined by a semi-empirical technique using observed OC and elemental carbon (EC) data from 142 routine monitoring sites in mostly rural locations across the country, coupled with the primary OC/EC ratios, obtained from a chemical transport model (i.e., Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model). This application yields the first non-mechanistic estimates of the spatial and temporal variations in OC(pri) and OC(sec) over an entire year on a continental scale. There is significant seasonal and regional variability in the relative contributions of OC(pri) and OC(sec) to OC. Over the continental United States, the median OC(sec) concentrations are 0.13, 0.36, 0.63, 0.44, and 0.42 mictrog C m(-3) in winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), fall (SON), and annual, respectively, making 21, 44, 51, 42, and 43% contributions to OC, respectively. OC(pri) exceeds OC(sec) in all seasons except summer. Regional analysis shows that the southeastern region has the highest concentration of OC(pri) (annual median = 1.35 microg C m(-3)), whereas the central region has the highest concentration of OC(sec) (annual median = 0.76 microg C m(-3)). The mechanistic OC(sec) estimates from the CMAQ model were compared against the independently derived semi-empirical OC(sec) estimates. The results indicate that the mechanistic model reproduced the monthly medians of the semi-empirical OC(sec) estimates well over the northeast, southeast, midwest, and central regions in all months except the summer months (June, July, and August), during which the modeled regional monthly medians were consistently lower than the semi-empirical estimates. This indicates that the CMAQ model is missing OC(sec) formation pathways that are important in the summer.

Use of medications in the treatment of acute low back pain.

The prescription of medications continues to be one of the mainstays of treatment of acute low back pain episodes. The goals of the pharmacologic treatment for acute low back are reduction of pain and return of normal function. Often, nociception is a result of secondary inflammation and muscle spasm after acute injury of a structure of the spine, which may include muscle, tendon, ligament, disc, or bone. An understanding of the appropriate use of medications to address the underlying pain generator and the current evidence for using these medications is essential for any physician who sees and treats patients with acute low back pain.

Economic Benefits of Improvements in Visibility: Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments.

The Acid Rain Provisions (Title IV) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 call for about a 10 million ton reduction in annual SO2 emissions in the United States. Although the provisions apply nationwide, most of the reduction will occur in the eastern half of the country, where use of high-sulfur coal for electricity generation is most common. One potentially large benefit of Title IV is the expected improvement in visibility conditions in the eastern United States due to the reductions in secondary sul-fate aerosols. This paper combines available economic estimates of willingness to pay for improvements in visibility with current estimates of the difference between expected visibility conditions in the eastern United States with and without Title I V, to estimate the expected visibility benefits of Title IV. The results suggest an annual value of $2.3 billion (in 1994 dollars) in the year 2010, as a result of visibility improvements due to Title IV in residential areas of the eastern United States. The results also suggest a possible additional annual value for eastern U.S. residents of as much as $1-2 billion for visibility improvements at national parks in the Southeast.