ABSTRACT
The optimal strategy for the vaccinating against herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine remains unknown. Cost-effectiveness analyses provide insight to the most cost-effective age groups but results vary across studies. The optimal strategy is important given that vaccine efficacy and duration vary depending on vaccination age. Therefore, small changes from the optimal age can affect long-term outcomes and produce sub-optimal results. The objective of this research was to determine the optimal timing policy for HZ vaccination. We simulated cohorts of men and women and use stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the decision to vaccinate or defer each year from age 50 to 100. If the decision was to defer, the cohort risked developing HZ. If HZ occurred, the cohort was subjected to cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss for a typical HZ infection (including complications) at that age. If HZ did not occur, the decision was evaluated at the next age. Then, we extend the model to consider the case in which a booster vaccine is available. A set of probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to check model robustness. Results show the optimal policy for women is to vaccinate between ages 66 and 77, and for men between ages 66 and 74, assuming a willingness to pay (WTP) of $100,000 per QALY. It becomes optimal to vaccinate earlier if a booster vaccine is available, and women have a wider range of ages than men. This research is the first to examine exactly when the HZ vaccine should be administered. It is also the first study, to our knowledge, that used stochastic dynamic programming to examine the question of a second dose for any vaccine. This research provides the first simple policy on when to vaccinate and re-vaccinate against HZ.
