Genomic prediction for sugarcane diseases including hybrid Bayesian-machine learning approaches.

Sugarcane smut and Pachymetra root rots are two serious diseases of sugarcane, with susceptible infected crops losing over 30% of yield. A heritable component to both diseases has been demonstrated, suggesting selection could improve disease resistance. Genomic selection could accelerate gains even further, enabling early selection of resistant seedlings for breeding and clonal propagation. In this study we evaluated four types of algorithms for genomic predictions of clonal performance for disease resistance. These algorithms were: Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), including extensions to model dominance and epistasis, Bayesian methods including BayesC and BayesR, Machine learning methods including random forest, multilayer perceptron (MLP), modified convolutional neural network (CNN) and attention networks designed to capture epistasis across the genome-wide markers. Simple hybrid methods, that first used BayesR/GWAS to identify a subset of 1000 markers with moderate to large marginal additive effects, then used attention networks to derive predictions from these effects and their interactions, were also developed and evaluated. The hypothesis for this approach was that using a subset of markers more likely to have an effect would enable better estimation of interaction effects than when there were an extremely large number of possible interactions, especially with our limited data set size. To evaluate the methods, we applied both random five-fold cross-validation and a structured PCA based cross-validation that separated 4702 sugarcane clones (that had disease phenotypes and genotyped for 26k genome wide SNP markers) by genomic relationship. The Bayesian methods (BayesR and BayesC) gave the highest accuracy of prediction, followed closely by hybrid methods with attention networks. The hybrid methods with attention networks gave the lowest variation in accuracy of prediction across validation folds (and lowest MSE), which may be a criteria worth considering in practical breeding programs. This suggests that hybrid methods incorporating the attention mechanism could be useful for genomic prediction of clonal performance, particularly where non-additive effects may be important.

Use of continuous genotypes for genomic prediction in sugarcane.

Genomic selection in sugarcane faces challenges due to limited genomic tools and high genomic complexity, particularly because of its high and variable ploidy. The classification of genotypes for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) becomes difficult due to the wide range of possible allele dosages. Previous genomic studies in sugarcane used pseudo-diploid genotyping, grouping all heterozygotes into a single class. In this study, we investigate the use of continuous genotypes as a proxy for allele-dosage in genomic prediction models. The hypothesis is that continuous genotypes could better reflect allele dosage at SNPs linked to mutations affecting target traits, resulting in phenotypic variation. The dataset included genotypes of 1318 clones at 58K SNP markers, with about 26K markers filtered using standard quality controls. Predictions for tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH), commercial cane sugar (CCS), and fiber content (Fiber) were made using parametric, non-parametric, and Bayesian methods. Continuous genotypes increased accuracy by 5%-7% for CCS and Fiber. The pseudo-diploid parametrization performed better for TCH. Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces model with Gaussian kernel and AK4 (arc-cosine kernel with hidden layer 4) kernel outperformed other methods for TCH and CCS, suggesting that non-additive effects might influence these traits. The prevalence of low-dosage markers in the study may have limited the benefits of approximating allele-dosage information with continuous genotypes in genomic prediction models. Continuous genotypes simplify genomic prediction in polyploid crops, allowing additional markers to be used without adhering to pseudo-diploid inheritance. The approach can particularly benefit high ploidy species or emerging crops with unknown ploidy.

Optimising clonal performance in sugarcane: leveraging non-additive effects via mate-allocation strategies.

Mate-allocation strategies in breeding programs can improve progeny performance by harnessing non-additive genetic effects. These approaches prioritise predicted progeny merit over parental breeding value, making them particularly appealing for clonally propagated crops such as sugarcane. We conducted a comparative analysis of mate-allocation strategies, exploring utilising non-additive and heterozygosity effects to maximise clonal performance with schemes that solely consider additive effects to optimise breeding value. Using phenotypic and genotypic data from a population of 2,909 clones evaluated in final assessment trials of Australian sugarcane breeding programs, we focused on three important traits: tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH), commercial cane sugar (CCS), and Fibre. By simulating families from all possible crosses (1,225) with 50 progenies each, we predicted the breeding and clonal values of progeny using two models: GBLUP (considering additive effects only) and extended-GBLUP (incorporating additive, non-additive, and heterozygosity effects). Integer linear programming was used to identify the optimal mate-allocation among selected parents. Compared to breeding value-based approaches, mate-allocation strategies based on clonal performance yielded substantial improvements, with predicted progeny values increasing by 57% for TCH, 12% for CCS, and 16% for fibre. Our simulation study highlights the effectiveness of mate-allocation approaches that exploit non-additive and heterozygosity effects, resulting in superior clonal performance. However, there was a notable decline in additive gain, particularly for TCH, likely due to significant epistatic effects. When selecting crosses based on clonal performance for TCH, the inbreeding coefficient of progeny was significantly lower compared to random mating, underscoring the advantages of leveraging non-additive and heterozygosity effects in mitigating inbreeding depression. Thus, mate-allocation strategies are recommended in clonally propagated crops to enhance clonal performance and reduce the negative impacts of inbreeding.

Genomic prediction with machine learning in sugarcane, a complex highly polyploid clonally propagated crop with substantial non-additive variation for key traits.

Sugarcane has a complex, highly polyploid genome with multi-species ancestry. Additive models for genomic prediction of clonal performance might not capture interactions between genes and alleles from different ploidies and ancestral species. As such, genomic prediction in sugarcane presents an interesting case for machine learning (ML) methods, which are purportedly able to deal with high levels of complexity in prediction. Here, we investigated deep learning (DL) neural networks, including multilayer networks (MLP) and convolution neural networks (CNN), and an ensemble machine learning approach, random forest (RF), for genomic prediction in sugarcane. The data set used was 2912 sugarcane clones, scored for 26,086 genome wide single nucleotide polymorphism markers, with final assessment trial data for total cane harvested (TCH), commercial cane sugar (CCS), and fiber content (Fiber). The clones in the latest trial (2017) were used as a validation set. We compared prediction accuracy of these methods to genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) extended to include dominance and epistatic effects. The prediction accuracies from GBLUP models were up to 0.37 for TCH, 0.43 for CCS, and 0.48 for Fiber, while the optimized ML models had prediction accuracies of 0.35 for TCH, 0.38 for CCS, and 0.48 for Fiber. Both RF and DL neural network models have comparable predictive ability with the additive GBLUP model but are less accurate than the extended GBLUP model.

Combining genomic selection with genome-wide association analysis identified a large-effect QTL and improved selection for red rot resistance in sugarcane.

Red rot caused by the fungus Colletotrichum falcatum is the main disease limiting sugarcane productivity in several countries including the major producer India. The genetic basis for red rot resistance is unclear. We studied a panel of 305 sugarcane clones from the Australian breeding program for disease response phenotype and genotype using an Affymetrix® Axiom® array, to better understand the genetic basis of red rot resistance. SNP markers highly significantly associated with red rot response (≤ 10-8) were identified. Markers with largest effect were located in a single 14.6 Mb genomic region of sorghum (the closest diploid relative of sugarcane with a sequenced genome) suggesting the presence of a major-effect QTL. By genomic selection, the estimated selection accuracy was ~0.42 for red rot resistance. This was increased to ~0.5 with the addition of 29 highly significant SNPs as fixed effects. Analysis of genes nearby the markers linked to the QTL revealed many biotic stress responsive genes within this QTL, with the most significant SNP co-locating with a cluster of four chitinase A genes. The SNP markers identified here could be used to predict red rot resistance with high accuracy at any stage in the sugarcane breeding program.

Improved genomic prediction of clonal performance in sugarcane by exploiting non-additive genetic effects.

KEY MESSAGE: Non-additive genetic effects seem to play a substantial role in the expression of complex traits in sugarcane. Including non-additive effects in genomic prediction models significantly improves the prediction accuracy of clonal performance. In the recent decade, genetic progress has been slow in sugarcane. One reason might be that non-additive genetic effects contribute substantially to complex traits. Dense marker information provides the opportunity to exploit non-additive effects in genomic prediction. In this study, a series of genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models that account for additive and non-additive effects were assessed to improve the accuracy of clonal prediction. The reproducible kernel Hilbert space model, which captures non-additive genetic effects, was also tested. The models were compared using 3,006 genotyped elite clones measured for cane per hectare (TCH), commercial cane sugar (CCS), and Fibre content. Three forward prediction scenarios were considered to investigate the robustness of genomic prediction. By using a pseudo-diploid parameterization, we found significant non-additive effects that accounted for almost two-thirds of the total genetic variance for TCH. Average heterozygosity also had a major impact on TCH, indicating that directional dominance may be an important source of phenotypic variation for this trait. The extended-GBLUP model improved the prediction accuracies by at least 17% for TCH, but no improvement was observed for CCS and Fibre. Our results imply that non-additive genetic variance is important for complex traits in sugarcane, although further work is required to better understand the variance component partitioning in a highly polyploid context. Genomics-based breeding will likely benefit from exploiting non-additive genetic effects, especially in designing crossing schemes. These findings can help to improve clonal prediction, enabling a more accurate identification of variety candidates for the sugarcane industry.

Accuracy of genomic prediction of complex traits in sugarcane.

KEY MESSAGE: Complex traits in sugarcane can be accurately predicted using genome-wide DNA markers. Genomic single-step prediction is an attractive method for genomic selection in commercial breeding programs. Sugarcane breeding programs have achieved up to 1% genetic gain in key traits such as tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH), commercial cane sugar (CCS) and Fibre content over the past decades. Here, we assess the potential of genomic selection to increase the rate of genetic gain for these traits by deriving genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) from a reference population of 3984 clones genotyped for 26 K SNP. We evaluated the three different genomic prediction approaches GBLUP, genomic single step (GenomicSS), and BayesR. GenomicSS combining pedigree and SNP information from historic and recent breeding programs achieved the most accurate predictions for most traits (0.3-0.44). This method is attractive for routine genetic evaluation because it requires relatively little modification to the existing evaluation and results in breeding value estimates for all individuals, not only those genotyped. Adding information from early-stage trials added up to 5% accuracy for CCS and Fibre, but 0% for TCH, reflecting the importance of competition effects for TCH. These GEBV accuracies are sufficiently high that, combined with the right breeding strategy, a doubling of the rate of genetic gain could be achieved. We also assessed the flowering traits days to flowering, gender and pollen viability and found high heritabilities of 0.57, 0.78 and 0.72, respectively. The GEBV accuracies indicated that genomic selection could be used to improve these traits. This could open new avenues for breeders to manage their breeding programs, for example, by synchronising flowering time and selecting males with high pollen viability.

Pathogenic Variation in Spore Populations of Sporisorium scitamineum, Causal Agent of Sugarcane Smut in Australia.

An incursion of sugarcane smut in Queensland was identified in 2006 in Bundaberg, Ingham, and Mackay. In 2008, two cultivars, 'Q205' and 'Q170', were highly susceptible in Bundaberg but remained disease free on a heavily infested farm in Mackay. A glasshouse experiment was established to determine whether the differences in disease expression were due to the sources of the two cultivars sourced from Bundaberg and Mackay in 2009. These were inoculated with the Mackay population of Sporisorium scitamineum spores. These cultivars had the same levels of disease, indicating that the variation in the clonal source of the cultivars was not responsible for the observed differences. A second glasshouse experiment in 2013 confirmed that highly susceptible Q205 and Q170 were resistant to the Mackay population of S. scitamineum but remained susceptible to the Bundaberg population. In 2010, S. scitamineum populations of smut fungi from Mackay and Bundaberg were compared in a field trial and the Mackay population had significantly less disease than the Bundaberg population on four cultivars (Q170, Q205, 'Q174', and 'Q138') but had significantly more disease in 'Q188'. These results confirmed the field observations and suggested that there was a differential response among the cultivars for the smut fungi collected from Mackay compared with Bundaberg and are genetically different. This finding suggests that a mixture of spores should be used to inoculate sugarcane clones for resistance screening.

Simultaneously accounting for population structure, genotype by environment interaction, and spatial variation in marker-trait associations in sugarcane.

Few association mapping studies have simultaneously accounted for population structure, genotype by environment interaction (GEI), and spatial variation. In this sugarcane association mapping study we tested models accounting for these factors and identified the impact that each model component had on the list of markers declared as being significantly associated with traits. About 480 genotypes were evaluated for cane yield and sugar content at three sites and scored with DArT markers. A mixed model was applied in analysis of the data to simultaneously account for the impacts of population structure, GEI, and spatial variation within a trial. Two forms of the DArT marker data were used in the analysis: the standard discrete data (0, 1) and a continuous DArT score, which is related to the marker dosage. A large number of markers were significantly associated with cane yield and sugar content. However, failure to account for population structure, GEI, and (or) spatial variation produced both type I and type II errors, which on the one hand substantially inflated the number of significant markers identified (especially true for failing to account for GEI) and on the other hand resulted in failure to detect markers that could be associated with cane yield or sugar content (especially when failing to account for population structure). We concluded that association mapping based on trials from one site or analysis that failed to account for GEI would produce many trial-specific associated markers that would have low value in breeding programs.