Multiresolution forecasting for futures trading using wavelet decompositions.

We investigate the effectiveness of a financial time-series forecasting strategy which exploits the multiresolution property of the wavelet transform. A financial series is decomposed into an over complete, shift invariant scale-related representation. In transform space, each individual wavelet series is modeled by a separate multilayer perceptron (MLP). We apply the Bayesian method of automatic relevance determination to choose short past windows (short-term history) for the inputs to the MLPs at lower scales and long past windows (long-term history) at higher scales. To form the overall forecast, the individual forecasts are then recombined by the linear reconstruction property of the inverse transform with the chosen autocorrelation shell representation, or by another perceptron which learns the weight of each scale in the prediction of the original time series. The forecast results are then passed to a money management system to generate trades.

Improving early recognition of malignant melanomas by digital image analysis in dermatoscopy.

The malignant melanoma (MM) is the most dangerous human skin disease. The incidence increased dramatically during the last years. The only chance for the patient is an early recognition and excision of the MM. The best diagnostic method for this is skin surface microscopy or dermatoscopy. Its use, however, requires much expertise. In order to support learning and using the method, a computer-based dermatoscopy workstation is being developed. Among others, new complexity measures are used for the image analysis.

Asymptotic level density in topological feature maps.

The Kohonen algorithm entails a topology conserving mapping of an input pattern space X subsetR(n) characterized by an a priori probability distribution P(x), xinX, onto a discrete lattice of neurons r with virtual positions w(r)inX. Extending results obtained by Ritter (1991) the authors show in the one-dimensional case for an arbitrary monotonously decreasing neighborhood function h(|r-r'|) that the point density D(W(r)) of the virtual net is a polynomial function of the probability density P(x) with D(w(r))~P(alpha)(w(r)). Here the distortion exponent is given by alpha=(1+12R)/3(1+6R) and is determined by the normalized second moment R of the neighborhood function. A Gaussian neighborhood interaction is discussed and the analytical results are checked by means of computer simulations.

Spatial arrangement of sigma-factor and core enzyme of Escherichia coli RNA polymerase. A neutron solution scattering study.

By means of neutron solution scattering we determined the position and orientation of core enzyme and sigma-factor within the Escherichia coli RNA polymerase holoenzyme with the aim of improving existing models. The individual components, core enzyme (E) and sigma-factor (sigma), were highlighted by deuterium labeling and their center-to-center distances determined in the monomeric and the dimeric holoenzyme. The following distance parameters were obtained: dE1-sigma 1 = 8.6(+/- 1) nm, dE1-E2 = 11.5(+/- 1) nm, d sigma 1-sigma 2 = 12.0(+/- 0.7) nm, dE1-sigma 2 = 9(+/- 3) nm. Using a triangulation procedure the position of the sigma-factors, sigma 1 and sigma 2, were determined with respect to the mass center of the core enzyme molecules, E1 and E2, assuming a symmetrical arrangement of the holoenzyme molecules in the dimer (C2 symmetry). In addition, the orientation of the sigma-factor with respect to core enzyme was estimated by means of model calculations. The obtained model of holoenzyme depicts the sigma-factor as buried in a groove of core enzyme, probably between the large subunits beta' and beta.

Evaluation of megestrol acetate and ethinyl estradiol as an oral contraceptive.

PIP: Evaluation of a new sequential oral contraceptive, 16 tablets of .1 mg ethinyl estradiol plus 5 tablets of .1 mg ethinyl estradiol and 5 mg compound with a structure similar to to progesterone. 74 patients dropped out, 18 of the 32 did not respond to personal communications; of the remaining 14 who discontinued the medication, 4 became pregnant but not from failure of the pill, 5 left because of nausea, and 5 left for personal reasons. There was a total of 515 completed cycles. Nausea occurred in 14.8% of the cycles with a marked decrease after the first cycle; breast soreness occurred in 5.8% of the cycles, intermenstrual bleeding and spotting in 6.4% of the cycles. The endometrium showed no adverse effects, and except for shortened bleeding times, no significant changes in laboratory values, including clotting mechanisms, were noted.^ieng