Modelling typhoid risk in Dhaka metropolitan area of Bangladesh: the role of socio-economic and environmental factors.

BACKGROUND: Developing countries in South Asia, such as Bangladesh, bear a disproportionate burden of diarrhoeal diseases such as cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid. These seem to be aggravated by a number of social and environmental factors such as lack of access to safe drinking water, overcrowdedness and poor hygiene brought about by poverty. Some socioeconomic data can be obtained from census data whilst others are more difficult to elucidate. This study considers a range of both census data and spatial data from other sources, including remote sensing, as potential predictors of typhoid risk. Typhoid data are aggregated from hospital admission records for the period from 2005 to 2009. The spatial and statistical structures of the data are analysed and principal axis factoring is used to reduce the degree of co-linearity in the data. The resulting factors are combined into a quality of life index, which in turn is used in a regression model of typhoid occurrence and risk. RESULTS: The three principal factors used together explain 87% of the variance in the initial candidate predictors, which eminently qualifies them for use as a set of uncorrelated explanatory variables in a linear regression model. Initial regression result using ordinary least squares (OLS) were disappointing, this was explainable by analysis of the spatial autocorrelation inherent in the principal factors. The use of geographically weighted regression caused a considerable increase in the predictive power of regressions based on these factors. The best prediction, determined by analysis of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was found when the three factors were combined into a quality of life index, using a method previously published by others, and had a coefficient of determination of 73%. CONCLUSIONS: The typhoid occurrence/risk prediction equation was used to develop the first risk map showing areas of Dhaka metropolitan area whose inhabitants are at greater or lesser risk of typhoid infection. This, coupled with seasonal information on typhoid incidence also reported in this paper, has the potential to advise public health professionals on developing prevention strategies such as targeted vaccination.

Typhoid Fever and its association with environmental factors in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh: a spatial and time-series approach.

Typhoid fever is a major cause of death worldwide with a major part of the disease burden in developing regions such as the Indian sub-continent. Bangladesh is part of this highly endemic region, yet little is known about the spatial and temporal distribution of the disease at a regional scale. This research used a Geographic Information System to explore, spatially and temporally, the prevalence of typhoid in Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) of Bangladesh over the period 2005-9. This paper provides the first study of the spatio-temporal epidemiology of typhoid for this region. The aims of the study were: (i) to analyse the epidemiology of cases from 2005 to 2009; (ii) to identify spatial patterns of infection based on two spatial hypotheses; and (iii) to determine the hydro-climatological factors associated with typhoid prevalence. Case occurrences data were collected from 11 major hospitals in DMA, geocoded to census tract level, and used in a spatio-temporal analysis with a range of demographic, environmental and meteorological variables. Analyses revealed distinct seasonality as well as age and gender differences, with males and very young children being disproportionately infected. The male-female ratio of typhoid cases was found to be 1.36, and the median age of the cases was 14 years. Typhoid incidence was higher in male population than female (χ(2) = 5.88, p<0.05). The age-specific incidence rate was highest for the 0-4 years age group (277 cases), followed by the 60+ years age group (51 cases), then there were 45 cases for 15-17 years, 37 cases for 18-34 years, 34 cases for 35-39 years and 11 cases for 10-14 years per 100,000 people. Monsoon months had the highest disease occurrences (44.62%) followed by the pre-monsoon (30.54%) and post-monsoon (24.85%) season. The Student's t test revealed that there is no significant difference on the occurrence of typhoid between urban and rural environments (p>0.05). A statistically significant inverse association was found between typhoid incidence and distance to major waterbodies. Spatial pattern analysis showed that there was a significant clustering of typhoid distribution in the study area. Moran's I was highest (0.879; p<0.01) in 2008 and lowest (0.075; p<0.05) in 2009. Incidence rates were found to form three large, multi-centred, spatial clusters with no significant difference between urban and rural rates. Temporally, typhoid incidence was seen to increase with temperature, rainfall and river level at time lags ranging from three to five weeks. For example, for a 0.1 metre rise in river levels, the number of typhoid cases increased by 4.6% (95% CI: 2.4-2.8) above the threshold of 4.0 metres (95% CI: 2.4-4.3). On the other hand, with a 1 °C rise in temperature, the number of typhoid cases could increase by 14.2% (95% CI: 4.4-25.0).

Hydroclimatological variability and dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series study.

BACKGROUND: While floods can potentially increase the transmission of dengue, only few studies have reported the association of dengue epidemics with flooding. We estimated the effects of river levels and rainfall on the hospital admissions for dengue fever at 11 major hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh. METHODS: We examined time-series of the number of hospital admissions of dengue fever in relation to river levels from 2005 to 2009 using generalized linear Poisson regression models adjusting for seasonal, between-year variation, public holidays and temperature. RESULTS: There was strong evidence for an increase in dengue fever at high river levels. Hospitalisations increased by 6.9% (95% CI: 3.2, 10.7) for each 0.1 metre increase above a threshold (3.9 metres) for the average river level over lags of 0-5 weeks. Conversely, the number of hospitalisations increased by 29.6% (95% CI: 19.8, 40.2) for a 0.1 metre decrease below the same threshold of the average river level over lags of 0-19 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with both high and low river levels increase the hospitalisations of dengue fever cases in Dhaka.

The role of climate variability in the spread of malaria in Bangladeshi highlands.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, frequently occurring as epidemics since the 1990s. Many factors affect increases in malaria cases, including changes in land use, drug resistance, malaria control programs, socioeconomic issues, and climatic factors. No study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Bangladesh. Here, we investigate the relationship between climatic parameters [rainfall, temperature, humidity, sea surface temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], and malaria cases over the last 20 years in the malaria endemic district of Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Monthly malaria case data from January 1989 to December 2008, monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal and ENSO index at the Niño Region 3 (NIÑO3) were used. A generalized linear negative binomial regression model was developed using the number of monthly malaria cases and each of the climatic parameters. After adjusting for potential mutual confounding between climatic factors there was no evidence for any association between the number of malaria cases and temperature, rainfall and humidity. Only a low NDVI was associated with an increase in the number of malaria cases. There was no evidence of an association between malaria cases and SST in the Bay of Bengal and NIÑO3. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: It seems counterintuitive that a low NDVI, an indicator of low vegetation greenness, is associated with increases in malaria cases, since the primary vectors in Bangladesh, such as An. dirus, are associated with forests. This relationship can be explained by the drying up of rivers and streams creating suitable breeding sites for the vector fauna. Bangladesh has very high vector species diversity and vectors suited to these habitats may be responsible for the observed results.

Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960-2005.

This paper illustrates the result of land use/cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh using topographic maps and multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1960 to 2005. The Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was used to extract information from satellite data, and post-classification change detection method was employed to detect and monitor land use/cover change. Derived land use/cover maps were further validated by using high resolution images such as SPOT, IRS, IKONOS and field data. The overall accuracy of land cover change maps, generated from Landsat and IRS-1D data, ranged from 85% to 90%. The analysis indicated that the urban expansion of Dhaka Metropolitan resulted in the considerable reduction of wetlands, cultivated land, vegetation and water bodies. The maps showed that between 1960 and 2005 built-up areas increased approximately 15,924 ha, while agricultural land decreased 7,614 ha, vegetation decreased 2,336 ha, wetland/lowland decreased 6,385 ha, and water bodies decreased about 864 ha. The amount of urban land increased from 11% (in 1960) to 344% in 2005. Similarly, the growth of landfill/bare soils category was about 256% in the same period. Much of the city's rapid growth in population has been accommodated in informal settlements with little attempt being made to limit the risk of environmental impairments. The study quantified the patterns of land use/cover change for the last 45 years for Dhaka Metropolitan that forms valuable resources for urban planners and decision makers to devise sustainable land use and environmental planning.