Seasonality of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date.

Fine-scale distribution and spatial variability of benthic invertebrate larvae in an open coastal embayment in Nova Scotia, Canada.

This study quantified the fine- scale (0.5 km) of variability in the horizontal distributions of benthic invertebrate larvae and related this variability to that in physical and biological variables, such as density, temperature, salinity, fluorescence and current velocity. Larvae were sampled in contiguous 500-m transects along two perpendicular 10-km transects with a 200-µm plankton ring net (0.75-m diameter) in St. George's Bay, Nova Scotia, Canada, in Aug 2009. Temperature, conductivity, pressure and fluorescence were measured with a CTD cast at each station, and currents were measured with an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler moored at the intersection of the 2 transects. Gastropod, bivalve and, to a lesser extent, bryozoan larvae had very similar spatial distributions, but the distribution of decapod larvae had a different pattern. These findings suggest that taxonomic groups with functionally similar larvae have similar dispersive properties such as distribution and spatial variability, while the opposite is true for groups with functionally dissimilar larvae. The spatial variability in larval distributions was anisotropic and matched the temporal/spatial variability in the current velocity. We postulate that in a system with no strong oceanographic features, the scale of spatially coherent physical forcing (e.g. tidal periodicity) can regulate the formation or maintenance of larval patches; however, swimming ability may modulate it.

Factors regulating early life history dispersal of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from coastal Newfoundland.

To understand coastal dispersal dynamics of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we examined spatiotemporal egg and larval abundance patterns in coastal Newfoundland. In recent decades, Smith Sound, Trinity Bay has supported the largest known overwintering spawning aggregation of Atlantic cod in the region. We estimated spawning and dispersal characteristics for the Smith Sound-Trinity Bay system by fitting ichthyoplankton abundance data to environmentally-driven, simplified box models. Results show protracted spawning, with sharply increased egg production in early July, and limited dispersal from the Sound. The model for the entire spawning season indicates egg export from Smith Sound is 13%•day(-1) with a net mortality of 27%•day(-1). Eggs and larvae are consistently found in western Trinity Bay with little advection from the system. These patterns mirror particle tracking models that suggest residence times of 10-20 days, and circulation models indicating local gyres in Trinity Bay that act in concert with upwelling dynamics to retain eggs and larvae. Our results are among the first quantitative dispersal estimates from Smith Sound, linking this spawning stock to the adjacent coastal waters. These results illustrate the biophysical interplay regulating dispersal and connectivity originating from inshore spawning of coastal northwest Atlantic.

Observing storm surges from space: Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland.

Coastal communities are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to storm surges under a changing climate. Tide gauges can be used to monitor alongshore variations of a storm surge, but not cross-shelf features. In this study we combine Jason-2 satellite measurements with tide-gauge data to study the storm surge caused by Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland. Satellite observations reveal a storm surge of 1 m in the early morning of September 22, 2010 (UTC) after the passage of the storm, consistent with the tide-gauge measurements. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with a phase speed of ~10 m/s and a cross-shelf decaying scale of ~100 km). The study clearly shows the utility of satellite altimetry in observing and understanding storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

Dispersal patterns, active behaviour, and flow environment during early life history of coastal cold water fishes.

During the pelagic larval phase, fish dispersal may be influenced passively by surface currents or actively determined by swimming behaviour. In situ observations of larval swimming are few given the constraints of field sampling. Active behaviour is therefore often inferred from spatial patterns in the field, laboratory studies, or hydrodynamic theory, but rarely are these approaches considered in concert. Ichthyoplankton survey data collected during 2004 and 2006 from coastal Newfoundland show that changes in spatial heterogeneity for multiple species do not conform to predictions based on passive transport. We evaluated the interaction of individual larvae with their environment by calculating Reynolds number as a function of ontogeny. Typically, larvae hatch into a viscous environment in which swimming is inefficient, and later grow into more efficient intermediate and inertial swimming environments. Swimming is therefore closely related to length, not only because of swimming capacity but also in how larvae experience viscosity. Six of eight species sampled demonstrated consistent changes in spatial patchiness and concomitant increases in spatial heterogeneity as they transitioned into more favourable hydrodynamic swimming environments, suggesting an active behavioural element to dispersal. We propose the tandem assessment of spatial heterogeneity and hydrodynamic environment as a potential approach to understand and predict the onset of ecologically significant swimming behaviour of larval fishes in the field.

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management.

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.

Challenges of modeling ocean basin ecosystems.

With increasing pressure for a more ecological approach to marine fisheries and environmental management, there is a growing need to understand and predict changes in marine ecosystems. Biogeochemical and physical oceanographic models are well developed, but extending these further up the food web to include zooplankton and fish is a major challenge. The difficulty arises because organisms at higher trophic levels are longer lived, with important variability in abundance and distribution at basin and decadal scales. Those organisms at higher trophic levels also have complex life histories compared to microbes, further complicating their coupling to lower trophic levels and the physical system. We discuss a strategy that builds on recent advances in modeling and observations and suggest a way forward that includes approaches to coupling across trophic levels and the inclusion of uncertainty.