Analysis of forest cover change and its driving factors in Senan district, Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Forests are pivotal in upholding and stabilizing ecosystem functions and services globally. Assessing changes in forest cover serves as a crucial indicator to comprehend the scope, scale, and dynamics of land use and land cover alterations on regional and global scales. This study evaluates the forest cover changes between 2005 and 2021, pinpointing the key drivers of forest land changes within the Senan district in Ethiopia's Amhara region. The analysis incorporated Landsat satellite images from 2005, 2011, and 2021, supplemented by field surveys using questionnaire data. Results reveal a shift: forest cover declined from 13.6% (2005) to 11.2% (2011) but rose to 15.4% by 2021, averaging a 12.9% annual change. Several crucial factors were identified as contributors to this forest cover change. These include expanding agricultural land, population growth, urbanization, and using wood as a fuel source. Poverty, exacerbated by population growth, climate change impacts, and a scarcity of food resources, directly linked to a shortage of farmlands, emerged as significant drivers of forest cover change. In light of these findings, an in-depth analysis of land use and land cover dynamics should be conducted, particularly at the expense of forest lands. Moreover, implementing sustainable management practices by developing strategies for intensive agriculture and fostering environmentally friendly non-farm income-generating activities is essential. This study provides reference material to policymakers and land-use planners setting sustainable development goals, advocating for balanced economic growth and environmental conservation to foster a harmonious relationship between humans and forests.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea.

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

Habitat utilization distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon).

Habitat-specific and movement-related behavioral studies are essential for the development of sustainable biodiversity management practices. Although the number of studies on sika deer is increasing, habitat utilization distribution (UD)-related studies remain limited. In this study, we investigated the habitat UD behavior of sika deer (Cervus nippon) using a literature survey and an experimental study on Suncheon Bonghwasan Mountain, South Korea. We reviewed home range-related literature on sika deer published between 1982 and 2019 in order to assess their estimation methods, study region, and research background. We observed that the number of studies on sika deer has increased. The minimum convex polygon (MCP) has been utilized the most to estimate habitat UD, followed by the kernel density (KD), the Brownian bridge model, and a combination of these methods. The average home ranges (95 % utilization distribution) of sika deer from the literature survey were 236.99 ha and 1183.96 ha using the minimum convex polygon and kernel density approaches, respectively. The five female deer in our experimental study on Suncheon Bonghwasan Mountain had a mean home range of 66.831 ± 15.241 ha using the MCP approach and 78.324 ± 20.82 ha using the KD approach. The UD behavior of sika deer explored in this research is expected to benefit future scholars and policymakers when formulating deer management and wildlife conservation strategies.

Inequalities in Childhood Immunisation in South Asia.

Identifying the inequalities associated with immunisation coverage among children is crucial. We investigated the factors associated with complete immunisation among 12- to 23-month-old children in five South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, using nationally representative data sets from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Descriptive statistics, bivariate association, and logistic regression analyses were employed to identify the prevalence and the factors in each country that affect the likelihood of full childhood immunisation coverage. The complete childhood immunisation coverage varied significantly within each country in South Asia. Afghanistan had the lowest immunisation rates (42.6%), whereas Bangladesh ranked the highest in complete childhood immunisation rates, at 88.2%. Similarly, 77.1% of Indian children, 79.2% of Nepali children, and 62.2% of Pakistani children were completely immunised. Household wealth status strongly correlated with full childhood immunisation in Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan at the bivariate level. The results from the logistic regression showed that a higher maternal educational level had a statistically significant association with complete childhood immunisation in all countries compared to mothers who did not attend any school. In conclusion, the study revealed the inequalities of complete childhood immunisation within South Asia. Governments must be proactive in their endeavours to address universal and equitable vaccine coverage in collaboration with national and international stakeholders and in line with the relevant Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate Change Influences the Spread of African Swine Fever Virus.

Climate change is an inevitable and urgent issue in the current world. African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a re-emerging viral animal disease. This study investigates the quantitative association between climate change and the potential spread of ASFV to a global extent. ASFV in wild boar outbreak locations recorded from 1 January 2019 to 29 July 2022 were sampled and investigated using the ecological distribution tool, the Maxent model, with WorldClim bioclimatic data as the predictor variables. The future impacts of climate change on ASFV distribution based on the model were scoped with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) bioclimatic data for 2050 and 2070. The results show that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the highest contributor, and annual mean temperature (Bio1) was obtained as the highest permutation importance variable on the spread of ASFV. Based on the analyzed scenarios, we found that the future climate is favourable for ASFV disease; only quantitative ratios are different and directly associated with climate change. The current study could be a reference material for wildlife health management, climate change issues, and World Health Organization sustainability goal 13: climate action.

Spatial proliferation of African swine fever virus in South Korea.

The African swine fever virus (ASFV) was first detected in South Korea on a pig farm in September 2019. Despite active preventive measures to control the spread of ASFV, outbreaks on pig farms and in wild boar have been increasing. In this study, we investigated the spatial contamination area using the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, and growth rate using a logistic diffusion model. On the basis of the ASFV outbreak locations recorded from September 17th, 2019, to May 20th, 2022, the MCP area for the second week was 618.41 km2 and expanded to 37959.67 km2 in the final week. The maximum asymptote of the logistic function was considered as the land area of South Korea, and we estimated logistic growth rates of 0.022 km2 per week and 0.094 km2 per month. Administrative bodies should implement preventive and quarantine measures for infectious diseases. The results of this study will be a reference for epidemiologists, ecologists, and policy makers and contribute to the establishment of appropriate quarantine measures for disease control and management.

The impact of unconditional child cash grant on child malnutrition and its immediate and underlying causes in five districts of the Karnali Zone, Nepal - A trend analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of unconditional cash transfers on child malnutrition and its determinants remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was evaluate the impact of an unconditional child cash grant on children's nutritional status and its immediate (infant and young child feeding, dietary diversity, food consumption, and child infection and care) and underlying (household food security; Water, Hygiene and Sanitation (WASH) determinants among children younger than five years in the Karnali Zone, Nepal. METHODS: The five districts of the Karnali Zone received standard social welfare services in the form of targeted resource transfers for eligible families, plus an unconditional child cash payment, augmented by a capacity building and behavioural change education. Repeated cross-sectional surveys, with measures taken at baseline (2009, N=3750), midline (2013, N=3750) and endline (2015, N=3647), were carried out using a two-stage cluster sampling method. Multi-level Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) with normal, binomial, Poisson, or multinomial link were performed to detect the unadjusted and adjusted trends. RESULTS: There was a linear growth among children, with a corresponding increase of 0.41 height-for-age Z-scores (p < 0.001), 0.50 weight-for-age Z-scores (p<0.001), and 0.34 weight-for-height Z-scores (p<0.001) between the study period, equating to a decline in child undernutrition of 9.4, 16.5, and 5.1 percentage points (p<0.001) for stunting, underweight, and wasting respectively. Improvements were also observed in WASH outcomes, care and health seeking behaviours, and food availability. CONCLUSION: Unconditional child cash grant embedded within a government sponsored cash transfer program for families and complemented by capacity building and behavioural change strategies improves child nutritional status and its determinants.

The Synergetic Effect of Cash Transfers for Families, Child Sensitive Social Protection Programs, and Capacity Building for Effective Social Protection on Children's Nutritional Status in Nepal.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the synergetic effect of child sensitive social protection programs, augmented by a capacity building for social protection and embedded within existing government's targeted resource transfers for families on child nutritional status. DESIGN: A repeat cross-sectional quasi-experimental design with measures taken pre- (October-December 2009) and post- (December 2014-February 2015) intervention in the intervention and comparison district. The comparison district received standard social welfare services in the form of targeted resource transfers (TRTs) for eligible families. The intervention district received the TRTs plus a child cash payment, augmented by a capacity building for effective social protection outcomes. Propensity scores were used in difference-in-differences models to compare the changes over time between the intervention and control groups. RESULTS: Propensity score matched/weighted models produced better results than the unmatched analyses, and hence we report findings from the radius matching. The intervention resulted in a 5.16 (95% CI: 9.55, 0.77), 7.35 (95% CI: 11.62, 3.08) and 2.84 (95% CI: 5.58, 0.10) percentage point reduction in the prevalence of stunting, underweight, and wasting among children under the age, respectively. The intervention impact was greater in boys than girls for stunting and wasting; and greater in girls than boys for underweight. The intervention also resulted in a 6.66 (95% CI: 2.13, 3.18), 11.40 (95% CI: 16.66, 6.13), and 4.0 (95% CI: 6.43, 1.78) percentage point reduction in the prevalence of stunting, underweight, and wasting among older children (≥24 months). No impact was observed among younger children (<24 months). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted resource transfers for families, augmented with a child sensitive social protection program and capacity building for social protection can address effectively child malnutrition. To increase the intervention effectiveness on younger children, the child cash payment amount needs to be revisited and closely embedded into infant and young child feeding initiatives, but also adjusted to equate to 20% of household expenditure or more to maximize the diversity of food available to young children.