Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Testing Following Myocardial Infarction Hospitalization Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Background: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is used to guide lipid-lowering therapy after a myocardial infarction (MI). Lack of LDL-C testing represents a missed opportunity for optimizing therapy and reducing cardiovascular risk. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the proportion of Medicare beneficiaries who had their LDL-C measured within 90 days following MI hospital discharge. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries ≥66 years of age with an MI hospitalization between 2016 and 2020. The primary analysis used data from all beneficiaries with fee-for-service coverage and pharmacy benefits (532,767 MI hospitalizations). In secondary analyses, we used data from a 5% random sample of beneficiaries with fee-for-service coverage without pharmacy benefits (10,394 MI hospitalizations), and from beneficiaries with Medicare Advantage (176,268 MI hospitalizations). The proportion of beneficiaries who had their LDL-C measured following MI hospital discharge was estimated accounting for the competing risk of death. Results: In the primary analysis (mean age 76.9 years, 84.4% non-Hispanic White), 29.9% of beneficiaries had their LDL-C measured within 90 days following MI hospital discharge. Among Hispanic, Asian, non-Hispanic White, and non-Hispanic Black beneficiaries, the 90-day postdischarge LDL-C testing was 33.8%, 32.5%, 30.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. Postdischarge LDL-C testing within 90 days was highest in the Middle Atlantic (36.4%) and lowest in the West North Central (23.4%) U.S. regions. In secondary analyses, the 90-day postdischarge LDL-C testing was 26.9% among beneficiaries with fee-for-service coverage without pharmacy benefits, and 28.6% among beneficiaries with Medicare Advantage coverage. Conclusions: LDL-C testing following MI hospital discharge among Medicare beneficiaries was low.

Evolocumab-Based LDL-C Management in High and Very High Cardiovascular Risk Patients in German Clinical Practice: The HEYMANS Study.

INTRODUCTION: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is among the most important modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In very high-risk patients, the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society guidelines recommend attaining LDL-C < 55 mg/dL. In the German cohort of the observational HEYMANS study, we aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and LDL-C control among patients initiating evolocumab. METHODS: Data was collected between 09/2016 and 05/2021 for ≤ 6 months before (retrospectively) and ≤ 30 months after evolocumab initiation (prospectively). Patient characteristics, lipid-lowering therapy (LLT), lipid values, evolocumab use, and safety were collected. RESULTS: Of 380 enrolled patients, 93% received evolocumab in secondary prevention and 69% had a history of statin intolerance. At study baseline, 49% did not receive any statins and LDL-C was very high (145 mg/dL). Use of evolocumab decreased LDL-C by a median of 53% within 3 months and remained stable thereafter, despite mainly unchanged background LLT. Overall, 59% attained an LDL-C level < 55 mg/dL (69% with, 49% without LLT). Persistence to evolocumab was 90.6% in months 1-12 and 93.5% in months 13-30. Adverse drug reactions were reported in 8% of patients. CONCLUSION: Data from the German HEYMANS cohort corroborate previous reports on evolocumab effectiveness and safety in clinical practice. Evolocumab initiation was associated with a rapid and sustained LDL-C reduction. Persistence with evolocumab was high. Our finding that patients receiving an evolocumab/LLT combination are more likely to attain the LDL-C goal than those receiving evolocumab alone corroborates previous data showing the importance of using highly intensive therapy. Graphical abstract available for this article. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02770131 (registration date 27 April 2016).

Evolocumab effectiveness in the real-world setting: Austrian data from the pan-European observational HEYMANS study.

BACKGROUND: This real-world study examined clinical characteristics and dyslipidemia management among patients initiating evolocumab across 12 European countries. Austrian data are reported. METHODS: Data of consenting adults were collected for ≤ 6 months prior to evolocumab initiation (baseline) and ≤ 30 months post-initiation. Patient characteristics, lipid lowering therapy (LLT, i.e. statin and/or ezetimibe) and lipid values were collected from medical records. RESULTS: In Austria, 363 patients were enrolled. At baseline, 52% of patients initiated evolocumab without background LLT; the median (Q1, Q3) initial low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level was 142 (111, 187) mg/dL. Within 3 months of evolocumab treatment, median LDL­C decreased by 59% to 58 (37, 91) mg/dL. This reduction was maintained over time, despite consistently infrequent use of background LLT. LDL-C < 55 mg/dL was attained by 65% of patients (76% with, 55% without background LLT). Evolocumab persistence was ≥ 90% at month 12 and month 30. CONCLUSION: In Austria, patients were initiated on evolocumab at LDL­C levels almost 3­times higher than the guideline-recommended clinical goal (< 55 mg/dL). Persistence with evolocumab was very high. Evolocumab led to a rapid and sustained LDL­C reduction with 65% attaining the LDL­C goal. Patients using evolocumab in combination with statins and/or ezetimibe were more likely to attain their LDL­C goal and thus decrease cardiovascular risk.

Evolocumab is Initiated in Central and Eastern Europe at Much Higher LDL-C Levels Than Recommended in Guidelines: Results from the Observational HEYMANS Study.

Purpose: We examined clinical characteristics and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering in patients initiating evolocumab in real-world practice in a Central and Eastern European (CEE) cohort from the pan-European HEYMANS study. Methods: Patients from Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Slovakia were enrolled at initiation of evolocumab (baseline) as per local reimbursement criteria. Demographic/clinical characteristics, lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) and lipid values were collected from medical records for ≤6 months before baseline and ≤30 months after evolocumab initiation. Results: Overall, 333 patients were followed over a mean (SD) duration of 25.1 (7.5) months. At initiation of evolocumab, LDL-C levels were markedly elevated in all three countries, with a median (Q1, Q3) LDL-C of 5.2 (4.0, 6.6) mmol/L in Bulgaria, 4.5 (3.8, 5.8) mmol/L in the Czech Republic, and 4.7 (4.0, 5.6) mmol/L in Slovakia. Within the first three months of evolocumab treatment, LDL-C levels were reduced by a median of 61% in Bulgaria, 64% in the Czech Republic, and 53% in Slovakia. LDL-C levels remained low throughout the remaining period of observation. The 2019 ESC/EAS guideline-recommended risk-based LDL-C goals were attained by 46% of patients in Bulgaria, 59% in the Czech Republic, and 43% of patients in Slovakia. LDL-C goal attainment was higher in patients receiving a statin ± ezetimibe-based background therapy (Bulgaria: 55%, Czech Republic: 71%, Slovakia: 51%) compared to those receiving evolocumab alone (Bulgaria: 19%, Czech Republic: 49%, Slovakia: 34%). Conclusion: In the HEYMANS CEE cohort, patients initiated on evolocumab had baseline LDL-C levels approximately three-fold higher than guideline-recommended thresholds for PCSK9i initiation. Risk-based LDL-C goal attainment was highest in patients receiving high-intensity combination therapy. Lowering the LDL-C reimbursement threshold for PCSK9i initiation would allow more patients to receive combination therapy, thus improving LDL-C goal attainment. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02770131; registration date: 27 April 2016).

Estimates of years of life lost depended on the method used: tutorial and comparative investigation.

OBJECTIVES: This review aims to summarize key methods for estimating years of life lost (YLL), highlighting their differences and how they can be implemented in current software, and applies them in a real-world example. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We investigated the common YLL methods: (1) Years of potential life lost (YPLL); (2) Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach; (3) Life tables; (4) Poisson regression; and (5) Flexible parametric Royston-Parmar regression. We used data from UK Biobank and multimorbidity as our example. RESULTS: For the YPLL and GBD method, the analytical procedures allow only to quantify the average YLL within each group (with and without multimorbidity) and, from them, their difference; conversely, for the other methods both the remaining life expectancy within each group and the YLL could be estimated. At 65 years, the YLL in those with vs. without multimorbidity was 1.8, 1.2, and 2.7 years using the life tables approach and the Poisson, and Royston-Parmar regression, respectively; corresponding values were -0.73 and -0.05 years for YPLL and using the GBD approach. CONCLUSION: While deciding among different methods to estimate YLL, researchers should consider the purpose of the research, the type of available data, and the flexibility of the model.

Healthy lifestyle and life expectancy in people with multimorbidity in the UK Biobank: A longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether a healthy lifestyle impacts longevity in the presence of multimorbidity is unclear. We investigated the associations between healthy lifestyle and life expectancy in people with and without multimorbidity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 480,940 middle-aged adults (median age of 58 years [range 38-73], 46% male, 95% white) were analysed in the UK Biobank; this longitudinal study collected data between 2006 and 2010, and participants were followed up until 2016. We extracted 36 chronic conditions and defined multimorbidity as 2 or more conditions. Four lifestyle factors, based on national guidelines, were used: leisure-time physical activity, smoking, diet, and alcohol consumption. A combined weighted score was developed and grouped participants into 4 categories: very unhealthy, unhealthy, healthy, and very healthy. Survival models were applied to predict life expectancy, adjusting for ethnicity, working status, deprivation, body mass index, and sedentary time. A total of 93,746 (19.5%) participants had multimorbidity. During a mean follow-up of 7 (range 2-9) years, 11,006 deaths occurred. At 45 years, in men with multimorbidity an unhealthy score was associated with a gain of 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.3 to 3.3; P = 0.102) additional life years compared to very unhealthy score, though the association was not significant, whilst a healthy score was significantly associated with a gain of 4.5 (3.3 to 5.7; P < 0.001) life years and a very healthy score with 6.3 (5.0 to 7.7; P < 0.001) years. Corresponding estimates in women were 3.5 (95% CI 0.7 to 6.3; P = 0.016), 6.4 (4.8 to 7.9; P < 0.001), and 7.6 (6.0 to 9.2; P < 0.001) years. Results were consistent in those without multimorbidity and in several sensitivity analyses. For individual lifestyle factors, no current smoking was associated with the largest survival benefit. The main limitations were that we could not explore the consistency of our results using a more restrictive definition of multimorbidity including only cardiometabolic conditions, and participants were not representative of the UK as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: In this analysis of data from the UK Biobank, we found that regardless of the presence of multimorbidity, engaging in a healthier lifestyle was associated with up to 6.3 years longer life for men and 7.6 years for women; however, not all lifestyle risk factors equally correlated with life expectancy, with smoking being significantly worse than others.

Inflammation and Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent Response in Hemodialysis Patients: A Self-matched Longitudinal Study of Anemia Management in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS).

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Previous studies of inflammation and anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients may be biased due to patient differences. We used a self-matched longitudinal design to test whether new inflammation, defined as an acute increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) level, reduces hemoglobin response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) treatment. STUDY DESIGN: Self-matched longitudinal design. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,568 new inflammation events, defined as CRP level > 10 mg/L following a 3-month period with CRP level ≤ 5 mg/L, were identified from 12,389 HD patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) phases 4 to 6 (2009-2018) in 10 countries in which CRP is routinely measured. PREDICTOR: "After" (vs "before") observing a high CRP level. OUTCOMES: Within-patient changes in hemoglobin level, ESA dose, and ESA hyporesponsiveness (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL and ESA dose > 6,000 [Japan] or >8,000 [Europe] U/wk). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Linear mixed models and modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: Comparing before with after periods, mean hemoglobin level decreased from 11.2 to 10.9 g/dL (adjusted mean change, -0.26 g/dL), while mean ESA dose increased from 6,320 to 6,960 U/wk (adjusted relative change, 8.4%). The prevalence of ESA hyporesponsiveness increased from 7.6% to 12.3%. Both the unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios of ESA hyporesponsiveness were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.48-1.91). These associations were consistent in sensitivity analyses varying CRP thresholds and were stronger when the CRP level increase was sustained over the 3-month after period. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding by unmeasured time-varying risk factors for ESA hyporesponsiveness. CONCLUSIONS: In the 3 months after HD patients experienced an increase in CRP levels, hemoglobin levels declined quickly, ESA doses increased, and the prevalence of ESA hyporesponsiveness increased appreciably. Routine CRP measurement could identify inflammation as a cause of worsened anemia. In turn, these findings speak to a potentially important role for anemia therapies that are less susceptible to the effects of inflammation.

Efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

AIM: To compare the efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in adults with type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic databases were searched from inception to 24 April 2019 for randomized controlled trials reporting change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) at approximately 24 and/or 52 weeks for SGLT-2is and/or GLP-1RAs (classified as short- and long-acting). Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted to compare within and between SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA classes for cardiometabolic efficacy and adverse events (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018091306). RESULTS: Sixty-four trials (53 trials of 24 weeks; seven trials of 52 weeks; four trials of both 24 and 52 weeks), comprising 31 384 participants were identified. Compared with placebo, all treatments improved HbA1c. Long-acting GLP-1RAs reduced HbA1c compared with short-acting GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is, with semaglutide showing greater reduction compared with placebo [24 weeks: -1.49% (95% credible interval: -1.76, -1.22); 52 weeks: -1.38% (-2.05, -0.71)] and all other treatments. Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed benefits in body weight and waist circumference reduction, while SGLT-2is reduced blood pressure. SGLT-2is showed increased risk of genital infection in comparison with long-acting GLP-1RAs [odds ratio (95% credible interval): 5.26 (1.45, 25.00)], while GLP-1RAs showed increased risk of diarrhoea in comparison with SGLT-2is [short-acting GLP-1RAs: 1.65 (1.09, 2.49); long-acting GLP-1RAs: 2.23 (1.51, 3.28)]. No other differences were found between SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in adverse events. CONCLUSION: Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed superiority in reducing HbA1c levels, body weight and waist circumference. SGLT-2is showed reductions in blood pressure levels. This review provides essential evidence to guide treatment recommendations in the management of type 2 diabetes.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident acute myocardial infarction and stroke: findings from matched cohort study of 18 million European adults.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or stroke in adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). DESIGN: Matched cohort study. SETTING: Population based, electronic primary healthcare databases before 31 December 2015 from four European countries: Italy (n=1 542 672), Netherlands (n=2 225 925), Spain (n=5 488 397), and UK (n=12 695 046). PARTICIPANTS: 120 795 adults with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH and no other liver diseases, matched at time of NAFLD diagnosis (index date) by age, sex, practice site, and visit, recorded at six months before or after the date of diagnosis, with up to 100 patients without NAFLD or NASH in the same database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was incident fatal or non-fatal AMI and ischaemic or unspecified stroke. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models and pooled across databases by random effect meta-analyses. RESULTS: 120 795 patients with recorded NAFLD or NASH diagnoses were identified with mean follow-up 2.1-5.5 years. After adjustment for age and smoking the pooled hazard ratio for AMI was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.30; 1035 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 67 823 in matched controls). In a group with more complete data on risk factors (86 098 NAFLD and 4 664 988 matched controls), the hazard ratio for AMI after adjustment for systolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension was 1.01 (0.91 to 1.12; 747 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 37 462 in matched controls). After adjustment for age and smoking status the pooled hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (1.11 to 1.24; 2187 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 134 001 in matched controls). In the group with more complete data on risk factors, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.04 (0.99 to 1.09; 1666 events in participants with NAFLD, 83 882 in matched controls) after further adjustment for type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of NAFLD in current routine care of 17.7 million patient appears not to be associated with AMI or stroke risk after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk assessment in adults with a diagnosis of NAFLD is important but should be done in the same way as for the general population.

Physical activity, multimorbidity, and life expectancy: a UK Biobank longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is an emerging public health priority. Physical activity (PA) is recommended as one of the main lifestyle behaviours, yet the benefits of PA for people with multimorbidity are unclear. We assessed the benefits of PA on mortality and life expectancy in people with and without multimorbidity. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank dataset, we extracted data on 36 chronic conditions and defined multimorbidity as (a) 2 or more conditions, (b) 2 or more conditions combined with self-reported overall health, and (c) 2 or more top-10 most common comorbidities. Leisure-time PA (LTPA) and total PA (TPA) were measured by questionnaire and categorised as low (< 600 metabolic equivalent (MET)-min/week), moderate (600 to < 3000 MET-min/week), and high (≥ 3000 MET-min/week), while objectively assessed PA was assessed by wrist-worn accelerometer and categorised as low (4 min/day), moderate (10 min/day), and high (22 min/day) walking at brisk pace. Survival models were applied to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and predict life expectancy differences. RESULTS: 491,939 individuals (96,622 with 2 or more conditions) had a median follow-up of 7.0 (IQR 6.3-7.6) years. Compared to low LTPA, for participants with multimorbidity, HR for mortality was 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.80) and 0.65 (0.56-0.75) in moderate and high LTPA groups, respectively. This finding was consistent when using TPA measures. Using objective PA, HRs were 0.49 (0.29-0.80) and 0.29 (0.13-0.61) in the moderate and high PA groups, respectively. These findings were similar for participants without multimorbidity. In participants with multimorbidity, at the age of 45 years, moderate and high LTPA were associated with an average of 3.12 (95% CI 2.53, 3.71) and 3.55 (2.34, 4.77) additional life years, respectively, compared to low LTPA; in participants without multimorbidity, corresponding figures were 1.95 (1.59, 2.31) and 1.85 (1.19, 2.50). Similar results were found with TPA. For objective PA, moderate and high levels were associated with 3.60 (- 0.60, 7.79) and 5.32 (- 0.47, 11.11) life years gained compared to low PA for those with multimorbidity and 3.88 (1.79, 6.00) and 4.51 (2.15, 6.88) life years gained in those without. Results were consistent when using other definitions of multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: There was an inverse dose-response association between PA and mortality. A moderate exercise is associated with a longer life expectancy, also in individuals with multimorbidity.

Stillbirth Among Women Prescribed Nicotine Replacement Therapy in Pregnancy: Analysis of a Large UK Pregnancy Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to compare risk of stillbirth between maternal smokers and those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) during pregnancy. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis on a pregnancy cohort of 220,630 singleton pregnancies ending in live or stillbirth between 2001 and 2012 from The Health Improvement Network UK general practice database. Women were categorized into three groups: NRT (prescribed during pregnancy or 1 month before conception); smokers; and controls (nonsmokers without a pregnancy NRT prescription). We calculated Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for stillbirth in the NRT group and smokers compared to controls. RESULTS: A total of 805 pregnancies ended in stillbirth (3.6/1000 births). Absolute risks of stillbirth in NRT and smoker groups were both 5/1000 births compared with 3.5/1000 births in the control group. Compared with the control group, the adjusted odds of stillbirth in the NRT group was not statistically significant (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.00), although it was similar in magnitude to that in the smokers group (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.77). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of a statistically significant association between being prescribed NRT during pregnancy and odds of stillbirth compared with nonsmoking women. Although our study had much larger numbers than any previously, an even larger study with biochemically validated smoking outcome data and close monitoring of NRT use throughout pregnancy is required to exclude effects on findings of potential exposure misclassification.

Cardiovascular, cancer and mortality events after bariatric surgery in people with and without pre-existing diabetes: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery reduces cardiovascular events and mortality risk in obese individuals. However, it is unclear whether diabetes modifies this effect. This study examined mortality, cardiovascular, and cancer risk following bariatric surgery in adults with and without pre-existing diabetes. METHODS: Using mortality-linked Hospital Episodes Statistics (2006-14) from England, the risk of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, unstable angina, heart failure, and cancer following bariatric surgery was examined; the risk of death in people undergoing surgery was also compared with mortality rates of the general population. RESULTS: Of the 35 887 people undergoing bariatric surgery, 9175 (25.6%) had pre-existing diabetes. During a mean follow-up of 5.3 years, 801 people died, of whom 293 (36.6%) had pre-existing diabetes. The risk of all-cause mortality was 26% higher in people with than without diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.46), whereas the risk of cancer was 21% higher (aHR 1.21; 95% CI 1.14-1.77). The risk of cardiovascular events was higher for patients with than without diabetes (aHRs [95% CIs] 2.08 [1.42-3.05], 1.80 [1.29-2.52], 1.61 [1.18-2.19], and 1.42 [1.14-1.77] for myocardial infarction, unstable angina, stroke, and heart failure, respectively). Compared with the general population, the age-standardized mortality rate ratio was 1.70 (1.52-1.91) and 1.35 (1.23-1.48) in people with and without pre-existing diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with pre-existing diabetes, the risk of death, cardiovascular events, and cancer after bariatric surgery was higher than for those without diabetes, whose mortality risk after surgery remains 35% higher than that of the general population.

Efficacy and safety of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and network meta-analysis study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) are two classes of glucose-lowering drugs gaining popularity in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Current guidelines suggest patient-centred approaches when deciding between available hyperglycaemia drugs with no indication to which specific drug should be administered. Despite systematic reviews and meta-analyses being conducted within SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs, differences across these classes of drugs have not been investigated. Therefore, this systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) will aim to compare the efficacy and safety profiles across and within SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs. METHODS: PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and ISI Web of Science will be searched from inception for published randomised controlled trials conducted in patients with T2DM, with at least two arms consisting of SGLT-2is, GLP-1RAs or control/placebo. Title and abstracts will be screened by two independent reviewers with conflicts resolved by a third. Data will be extracted by the primary researcher, a random sample will be checked by an independent reviewer. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and overall quality of evidence will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.Study characteristics, participants baseline characteristics, mean change in cardiometabolic outcomes and number of adverse events will be extracted for each study. Primary outcome will be the mean change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) (%, mmol/mol). Initial random-effects pairwise meta-analysis will be conducted for each unique treatment comparison where heterogeneity will be assessed. A Bayesian NMA approach will be adopted where random-effects generalised linear models will be fitted in WinBUGS. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to assess choices of prior distributions and length of burn-in and sample. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this study. Results from this study will be published in a peer-review journal. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018091306.

Patterns of Multimorbidity in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: An Analysis of the UK Biobank Data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence, disease clusters, and patterns of multimorbidity using a novel 2-stage approach in middle-aged and older adults from the United Kingdom. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 36 chronic conditions from 502,643 participants aged 40 to 69 years with baseline measurements between March 13, 2006, and October 1, 2010, from the UK Biobank were extracted. We combined cluster analysis and association rule mining to assess patterns of multimorbidity overall and by age, sex, and ethnicity. A maximum of 3 clusters and 30 disease patterns were mined. Comparisons were made using lift as the main measure of association. RESULTS: Ninety-five thousand seven hundred-ten participants (19%) had 2 or more chronic conditions. The first cluster included only myocardial infarction and angina (lift=13.3), indicating that the likelihood of co-occurrence of these conditions is 13 times higher than in isolation. The second cluster consisted of 26 conditions, including cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, respiratory, and neurodegenerative diseases. The strongest association was found between heart failure and atrial fibrillation (lift=23.6). Diabetes was at the center of this cluster with strong associations with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, liver failure, and stroke (lift>2). The third cluster contained 8 highly prevalent conditions, including cancer, hypertension, asthma, and depression, and the strongest association was observed between anxiety and depression (lift=5.0). CONCLUSION: Conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and asthma are the epicenter of disease clusters for multimorbidity. A more integrative multidisciplinary approach focusing on better management and prevention of these conditions may help prevent other conditions in the clusters.

Global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality in 109 countries, from 2000 to 2014: an analysis of death certificates.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In the context of increasing prevalence of diabetes in elderly people with multimorbidity, intensive glucose control may increase the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, potentially leading to death. While rising trends of severe hypoglycaemia rates have been reported in some European, North American and Asian countries, the global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality is unknown. We aimed to investigate global differences and trends of hypoglycaemia-related mortality. METHODS: We used the WHO mortality database to extract information on death certificates reporting hypoglycaemia or diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and the United Nations demographic database to obtain data on mid-year population estimates from 2000 to 2014. We calculated crude and age-standardised proportions (defined as number of hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by total number of deaths from diabetes [i.e. the sum of hypoglycaemia- and diabetes-related deaths]) and rates (hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by mid-year population) of hypoglycaemia-related mortality and compared estimates across countries and over time. RESULTS: Data for proportions were extracted from 109 countries (31 had data from all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised proportion of hypoglycaemia-related deaths was 4.49 (95% CI 4.44, 4.55) per 1000 total diabetes deaths. Compared with the overall mean, most Central American, South American and (mainly) Caribbean countries reported higher proportions (five more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths in Chile, six in Uruguay, 11 in Belize and 22 in Aruba), as well as Japan (11 more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths). In comparison, lower proportions were noted in most European countries, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For countries with data available for all years analysed, trend analysis showed a 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable trends onwards. Rising trends were most evident for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the USA and Japan. Data for rates were available for 105 countries (30 had data for all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related death rate was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77, 0.80) per 1 million person-years. Most Central American, South American and Caribbean countries similarly reported higher rates of hypoglycaemia-related death, whilst virtually all European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Australia reported lower rates compared with the overall mean. Age-standardised rates were very low for most countries (lower than five per 1 million person-years in 89.5% of countries), resulting in small absolute differences among countries. As noted with the proportions analysis, trend analysis showed an overall 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable rate trends onwards; rising rates were particularly evident for Brazil, Chile and the USA. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Most countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean showed the highest proportions of diabetes-related deaths attributable to hypoglycaemia and the highest rates of hypoglycaemia-related deaths. Between 2000 and 2014, rising trends were observed in Brazil, Chile and the USA for both rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related death, and in Argentina and Japan for proportions only. Further studies are required to unravel the contribution of clinical and socioeconomic factors, difference in diabetes prevalence and heterogeneity of death certification in determining lower rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related deaths in high-income countries in Europe, North America and Asia. DATA AVAILABILITY: Data used for these analyses are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/ndp52fbz8r.1.

Comparison of glucose-lowering agents after dual therapy failure in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: To assess the evidence supporting the choice of third-line agents in adults with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published between January 2000 and July 2017 that reported data on cardiometabolic outcomes and hypoglycaemia for glucose-lowering agents added to metformin-based dual treatments. Data were stratified by background therapy and RCT duration, and synthesized, when possible, with network meta-analyses. RESULTS: A total of 43 RCTs (16 590 participants) were included, with metformin combined with: sulphonylureas (SUs) in 20 RCTs; thiazolidinediones (TZDs) in 10; basal or rapid-acting insulin in 6; dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in 3; glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in 2; and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in 2. When added to metformin and SUs, after 24 to 36 weeks, rapid-acting insulin resulted in the largest reduction in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c; 1.6% vs placebo), followed by GLP-1RAs (1.0%), basal insulin (0.8%) and SGLT-2 inhibitors (0.7%), with no difference between GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors; body weight increased with insulin treatment (~3 kg vs placebo), while the greatest reduction was observed for SGLT-2 inhibitors compared with all other therapies. Limited data for hypoglycaemia indicated a similar risk for SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs. Results for third-line agents added to metformin and TZDs were comparable, showing similar HbA1c reduction and risk of hypoglycaemia between SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs, and a slightly greater reduction in body weight with SGLT-2 inhibitors vs GLP-1RAs. Data for 52 to 54 weeks were more limited: added to metformin and a SU, TZDs, GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2 inhibitors reduced HbA1c to a similar extent but had different effects on body weight (7 kg and 5 kg more with TZDs vs SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs, respectively; 2 kg less when comparing SGLT-2 inhibitors with GLP-1RAs). Formal analyses could not be performed for any other dual therapy failure combinations because of the small number of available RCTs. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-quality evidence supports the choice of a third-line agent only in patients on metformin combined with a SU or a TZD, with SGLT-2 inhibitors performing generally better than other drugs. In suggesting third-line agents, future guidelines should recognize the widely differing evidence on the various dual therapy failures.

Association of walking pace and handgrip strength with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality: a UK Biobank observational study.

AIMS: To quantify the association of self-reported walking pace and handgrip strength with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 230 670 women and 190 057 men free from prevalent cancer and cardiovascular disease were included from UK Biobank. Usual walking pace was self-defined as slow, steady/average or brisk. Handgrip strength was assessed by dynamometer. Cox-proportional hazard models were adjusted for social deprivation, ethnicity, employment, medications, alcohol use, diet, physical activity, and television viewing time. Interaction terms investigated whether age, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status modified associations. Over 6.3 years, there were 8598 deaths, 1654 from cardiovascular disease and 4850 from cancer. Associations of walking pace with mortality were modified by BMI. In women, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality in slow compared with fast walkers were 2.16 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.68-2.77] and 1.31 (1.08-1.60) in the bottom and top BMI tertiles, respectively; corresponding HRs for men were 2.01 (1.68-2.41) and 1.41 (1.20-1.66). Hazard ratios for cardiovascular mortality remained above 1.7 across all categories of BMI in men and women, with modest heterogeneity in men. Handgrip strength was associated with cardiovascular mortality in men only (HR tertile 1 vs. tertile 3 = 1.38; 1.18-1.62), without differences across BMI categories, while associations with all-cause mortality were only seen in men with low BMI. Associations for walking pace and handgrip strength with cancer mortality were less consistent. CONCLUSION: A simple self-reported measure of slow walking pace could aid risk stratification for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality within the general population.

Association between polypharmacy and falls in older adults: a longitudinal study from England.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the longitudinal association between polypharmacy and falls and examine the differences in this association by different thresholds for polypharmacy definitions in a nationally representative sample of adults aged over 60 years from England. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 6 and 7. PARTICIPANTS: 5213 adults aged 60 or older. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates, incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% CI for falls in people with and without polypharmacy. RESULTS: A total of 5213 participants contributed 10 502 person-years of follow-up, with a median follow-up of 2.02 years (IQR 1.9-2.1 years). Of the 1611 participants with polypharmacy, 569 reported at least one fall within the past 2 years (rate: 175 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 161 to 190), and of the 3602 participants without polypharmacy 875 reported at least one fall (rate: 121 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 113 to 129). The rate of falls was 21% higher in people with polypharmacy compared with people without polypharmacy (adjusted IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.31). Using ≥4 drugs threshold the rate of falls was 18% higher in people with polypharmacy compared with people without (adjusted IRR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.28), whereas using ≥10 drugs threshold polypharmacy was associated with a 50% higher rate of falls (adjusted IRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: We found almost one-third of the total population using five or more drugs, which was significantly associated with 21% increased rate of falls over a 2-year period. Further exploration of the effects of these complex drug combinations in the real world with a detailed standardised assessment of polypharmacy is greatly required along with pragmatic studies in primary care, which will help inform whether the threshold for a detailed medication review should be lowered.

Predicting hospital stay, mortality and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia: prognostic models derivation and validation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia. METHODS: We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score ('base' model). In the second model, we added to the 'base' model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables ('disease' model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics. RESULTS: In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia.