Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation.

We empirically examined the effectiveness of how the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique structures task information to help reduce confirmation bias (Study 1) and the portrayal of intelligence analysts as suffering from such bias (Study 2). Study 1 (N = 161) showed that individuals presented with hypotheses in rows and evidence items in columns were significantly less likely to demonstrate confirmation bias, whereas those presented with the ACH-style matrix (with hypotheses in columns and evidence items in rows) or a paragraph of text (listing the evidence for each hypothesis) were not less likely to demonstrate bias. The ACH-style matrix also did not confer any benefits regarding increasing sensitivity to evidence credibility. Study 2 showed that the majority of 62 Dutch military analysts did not suffer from confirmation bias and were sensitive to evidence credibility. Finally, neither judgmental coherence nor cognitive reflection differentiated between better or worse performers in the hypotheses evaluation tasks.

Representative design: A realistic alternative to (systematic) integrative design.

We disagree with Almaatouq et al. that no realistic alternative exists to the "one-at-a-time" paradigm. Seventy years ago, Egon Brunswik introduced representative design, which offers a clear path to commensurability and generality. Almaatouq et al.'s integrative design cannot guarantee the external validity and generalizability of results which is sorely needed, while representative design tackles the problem head on.

On conducting ethically sound psychological science in the metaverse.

As the next generation of the internet, the metaverse is an immersive three-dimensional (3D) world that incorporates both physical and virtual environments. The metaverse affords numerous advantages for advancing our theoretical and practical understanding of human cognition, emotion, and behavior, as well as shaping our methodological approach to conducting psychological science. However, undertaking research in a world that merges the physical and virtual, also presents new and unique ethical challenges that are not addressed by current ethical guidelines such as the Belmont Report, the Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct, and the Association of Internet Researchers Internet Research Ethical Guidelines. We discuss the different domains of the metaverse relevant to psychological research and consider how three categories of ethical challenges (i.e., "respect for persons," "beneficence," and "justice") may arise when conducting research in the metaverse. We also provide recommendations for addressing these challenges that include reconfiguring existing ethical guidelines as well as creating new ones. Together, these can inform and assist researchers and institutional review boards in making decisions about conducting ethically sound psychological science in the metaverse. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Health, Wellbeing, and Social Interaction: An International and Demographic Analysis of Perceived Life Changes and the Positives and Negatives of the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Research suggests that people's experiences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been detrimental to their lives and wellbeing. The current research compared the experiences and perceptions on health, wellbeing and social interaction of 300 UK adults and 450 adults in California. Individuals reported whether aspects of their life had changed for the better, worse, or not at all during lockdown in April 2020, and what the "best" and "worst" things about lockdown were. There were more similarities than differences in the regional comparison of perceptions of changes in specific aspects of 'health and wellbeing' and 'social interaction'. Both regions reported the same number and nature of best and worst things about lockdown. Overarching themes of 'health, self and wellbeing', 'being with others', and 'concerns with daily living' were identified. Although reports of life changes and the positives and negatives of lockdown were similar across different demographic groups, some differences were present by age, sex, relationship, and family-status. Incorporating knowledge of unified and positive experiences of lockdown can be useful in informing future lockdown restrictions and supporting the population when restrictions are lifted.

A Multi-disciplinary and Comparative Approach to Evaluating Pre-trial Detention Decisions: Towards Evidence-Based Reform.

The decision to remand a defendant into custody pre-trial is one of the most controversial criminal justice decisions because it deprives individuals of their liberty while they are presumed to be innocent of a crime. Indeed, pre-trial detention decisions can have significant consequences for defendants, which need to be balanced against the potential implications of bail for public safety and the course of criminal proceedings. Despite this, court-based bail and remand decision-making remains relatively underexplored. In this paper, we compare court-based bail/remand decision-making in England and Wales and The Netherlands. We focus on (i) the procedure and structure of decision-making, (ii) the substantive relevant legal frameworks, (iii) the courts in which the decisions are made and the decision-makers in those courts, (iv) the conditions characterizing the decision task, and (v) the court's reasoning of bail and remand in custody decisions. Using a comparative and multi-disciplinary approach, relying on Law, Criminology, and Psychology, we make predictions about bail and remand in custody rates in the two jurisdictions as well as the decision performance of court-based decision-makers. These predictions are then evaluated using available (official) statistics and past research. We identify the need to collect more nuanced statistical data on bail and remand in custody rates and point to potentially fruitful avenues for future research. A comparative, multi-disciplinary, evidence-based approach can underpin remand reform in England and Wales, The Netherlands, and beyond.

Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers.

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g., likely) rather than numeric (e.g., 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains, such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities.

Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis.

Intelligence analysis is fundamentally an exercise in expert judgment made under conditions of uncertainty. These judgments are used to inform consequential decisions. Following the major intelligence failure that led to the 2003 war in Iraq, intelligence organizations implemented policies for communicating probability in their assessments. Virtually all chose to convey probability using standardized linguistic lexicons in which an ordered set of select probability terms (e.g., highly likely) is associated with numeric ranges (e.g., 80-90%). We review the benefits and drawbacks of this approach, drawing on psychological research on probability communication and studies that have examined the effectiveness of standardized lexicons. We further discuss how numeric probabilities can overcome many of the shortcomings of linguistic probabilities. Numeric probabilities are not without drawbacks (e.g., they are more difficult to elicit and may be misunderstood by receivers with poor numeracy). However, these drawbacks can be ameliorated with training and practice, whereas the pitfalls of linguistic probabilities are endemic to the approach. We propose that, on balance, the benefits of using numeric probabilities outweigh their drawbacks. Given the enormous costs associated with intelligence failure, the intelligence community should reconsider its reliance on using linguistic probabilities to convey probability in intelligence assessments. Our discussion also has implications for probability communication in other domains such as climate science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Are People Experiencing the 'Pains of Imprisonment' During the COVID-19 Lockdown?

BACKGROUND: By the end of March 2020, more than a fifth of the world's population was in various degrees of "lockdown" in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. This enforced confinement led some to liken lockdown to imprisonment. We directly compared individual's experiences of lockdown with prisoners' experiences of imprisonment in order to determine whether psychological parallels can be drawn between these two forms of confinement. METHODS: Online surveys of adults in lockdown in the UK (N = 300) and California (N = 450) were conducted 4 and 5 weeks into lockdown in each region, respectively. The UK data was then compared to Souza and Dhami's (2010) sample of 267 medium security prisoners in England, and the Californian data was compared to Dhami et al.'s (2007) sample of 307 medium security Federal prisoners in California. We measured the effects of Group (Lockdown v. Prison) on five categories of dependent variables (i.e., activity, social contact, thoughts, feelings, and rule-breaking), controlling for demographic differences between the groups. RESULTS: In both regions, people in lockdown thought significantly less often about missing their freedom, as well as missing their family and friends living elsewhere than did first-time prisoners. However, people in lockdown in both regions were also significantly less engaged in a range of daily activities than were first-time prisoners. Additionally, in both regions, people in lockdown reported feeling more hopeless than first-time prisoners. CONCLUSION: Although Governments introducing lockdown policies do not intend to punish their citizens as courts do when sending convicted offenders to prison, such policies can have unintended adverse consequences. Psychological parallels can be drawn between the two forms of confinement.

Factors predicting conviction in child stranger rape.

BACKGROUND: Public knowledge of child stranger rape is shaped largely by media portrayals of a small number of cases, often marked by sensational trials, which may result in juror misconceptions of this offense. It is important to understand the factors that may influence jury verdicts in order to maximize the chance of guilty defendants being convicted. OBJECTIVE: The aim is to explore the factors that predict juries' decisions to convict or acquit in child stranger rape cases. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The study utilizes a police database of recorded child stranger rape cases from a UK urban force from 2001-2015. Seventy cases that were tried by jury were analyzed. We investigated the extent to which 19 child-, accused- and offense-related factors predict jury verdicts. METHODS: A four stage analytic process was employed: (a) Kendall's tau-b measured inter-correlations among the factors; (b) Chi-Square and Welch t-tests measured associations between factors and verdicts; (c) binary logistic regression measured the power of factors in predicting verdicts; and (d) Stein's formula was used to cross-validate the model. RESULTS: Verdicts were predicted by two offense-related factors. A weapon increased the odds of conviction by 412%. An outdoor location increased the odds by 360%. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have potential implications for prosecution case building and courtroom policy. Prosecutors could gather as much information as possible from victims about the factors found to be of importance to juries. Judges could challenge incorrect beliefs and stereotypes by instructing juries.

Factors Predicting Conviction in Stranger Rape Cases.

Background: Despite there being no legal distinction between different types of rapes (e.g., those committed by strangers to the victim versus those committed by perpetrators known to the victim), stereotypical beliefs about rape have meant that these can be treated differently by the justice system. The aim is to explore the factors that predict juries' decisions to convict or acquit in stranger rape cases. Methods: We measured the importance of a range of 20 perpetrator-, victim-, and offense-related factors in predicting outcomes for 394 stranger rape cases tried by a jury. A four-stage analytic process was employed: (a) Kendall's tau-b measured intercorrelations among the factors (predictors); (b) Chi-square and Welch t-tests measured associations between factors and verdicts; (c) binary logistic regression measured the power of factors in predicting verdicts; and (d) Stein's formula was used to cross-validate the model. Results: Jury verdicts were predicted by five offense-related factors and one victim-related factor. None of the perpetrator-related factors were significant predictors of convictions for stranger rape. Conclusion: The findings have potential implications for victims of stranger rape, as well as prosecution and courtroom policy. We show that if a perpetrator is identified and charged, the likelihood of securing a conviction by a jury is high for victims of stranger rape. We suggest that prosecutors could gather as much information as possible from victims about the factors found to be of importance to juries, and judges could instruct juries on assumptions about the characteristics of the offense in order to challenge incorrect beliefs and stereotypes. Ultimately, this could be used to encourage victims of stranger rape to report and testify in court.

A re-examination of the acquittal biasing effect of offence seriousness.

The justice system should operate free of bias, and jurors' judgements of a defendant's guilt should be based on evidential factors alone. However, research suggests that this is not always the case. The aim of this study is to investigate the biasing effect of offence seriousness - a case-related, extralegal factor - on juror decision-making. An experiment was conducted to examine the effect of this extralegal factor on 118 members of the jury-eligible public's interpretations of 'beyond reasonable doubt' (BRD), probability of commission, verdict and confidence in verdict. It was found that defendants charged with more serious offences were judged to be less likely to have committed the crime. However, offence seriousness was not found to have a significant effect on interpretations of BRD and verdict. The present findings suggest a need to instruct jurors on the application of legal (probative) factors alone.

Male Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism: towards a Test of Rational Choice Theory.

Understanding how people perceive the pros and cons of risky behaviors such as terrorism or violent extremism represents a first step in developing research testing rational choice theory aiming to explain and predict peoples' intentions to engage in, or support, these behaviors. Accordingly, the present study provides a qualitative, exploratory analysis of a sample of 57 male youths' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of: (a) accessing a violent extremist website, (b) joining a violent extremist group, and (c) leaving such a group. Youth perceived significantly more drawbacks than benefits of joining a violent extremist group (p = .001, d = .46) and accessing a violent extremist website (p = .001, d = .46). The perceived benefits of engagement referred to gaining knowledge/awareness, being part of a group/similar people, and fighting the enemy/for a cause. The drawbacks referred to being exposed to negative material and emotions, having violent/criminal beliefs and behaviors, and getting in trouble with the law. The perceived benefits of disengagement referred to no longer committing illegal acts, and regaining independence/not being manipulated. The drawbacks referred to exposing oneself to harm and reprisal. These findings provide an insight into how male youth think about (dis)engagement in violent extremism, and can inform future quantitative research designed to explain and predict (dis)engagement in violent extremism. Eventually, such research may inform the development of evidence-based prevention and intervention strategies.

Male youth perceptions of violent extremism: towards a test of rational choice theory

Understanding how people perceive the pros and cons of risky behaviors such as terrorism or violent extremism represents a first step in developing research testing rational choice theory aiming to explain and predict peoples’ intentions to engage in, or support, these behaviors. Accordingly, the present study provides a qualitative, exploratory analysis of a sample of 57 male youths’ perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of: (a) accessing a violent extremist website, (b) joining a violent extremist group, and (c) leaving such a group. Youth perceived significantly more drawbacks than benefits of joining a violent extremist group (p = .001, d = .46) and accessing a violent extremist website (p = .001, d = .46). The perceived benefits of engagement referred to gaining knowledge/awareness, being part of a group/similar people, and fighting the enemy/for a cause. The drawbacks referred to being exposed to negative material and emotions, having violent/criminal beliefs and behaviors, and getting in trouble with the law. The perceived benefits of disengagement referred to no longer committing illegal acts, and regaining independence/not being manipulated. The drawbacks referred to exposing oneself to harm and reprisal. These findings provide an insight into how male youth think about (dis)engagement in violent extremism, and can inform future quantitative research designed to explain and predict (dis)engagement in violent extremism. Eventually, such research may inform the development of evidencebased prevention and intervention strategies (AU)

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Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible.

On avoiding framing effects in experienced decision makers.

The present study aimed to (a) demonstrate the effect of positive-negative framing on experienced criminal justice decision makers, (b) examine the debiasing effect of visually structured risk messages, and (c) investigate whether risk perceptions mediate the debiasing effect of visual aids on decision making. In two phases, 60 senior police officers estimated the accuracy of a counterterrorism technique in identifying whether a known terror suspect poses an imminent danger and decided whether they would recommend the technique to policy makers. Officers also rated their confidence in this recommendation. When information about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism technique was presented in a numerical format, officers' perceptions of accuracy and recommendation decisions were susceptible to the framing effect: The technique was perceived to be more accurate and was more likely to be recommended when its effectiveness was presented in a positive than in a negative frame. However, when the information was represented visually using icon arrays, there were no such framing effects. Finally, perceptions of accuracy mediated the debiasing effect of visual aids on recommendation decisions. We offer potential explanations for the debiasing effect of visual aids and implications for communicating risk to experienced, professional decision makers.

Spanish young adults' perceptions of the costs and benefits of risky driving behaviors.

We used an open-ended survey to elicit Spanish young adults' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of speeding and not wearing a seatbelt (or helmet). Around half of the sample reported past engagement in these two risky behaviors, although forecasted engagement was low. Past and forecasted risk taking were positively correlated. Participants provided more drawbacks than benefits of each risky behavior. Drawbacks typically referred to a combination of behavioral acts and social reactions (e.g., accident, punishment) that occurred during the journey. By contrast, benefits largely referred to personal effects (e.g., save time, comfort) that occurred after the journey had ended (speeding) or during the journey (not wearing a seatbelt/helmet). These findings contribute to our theoretical understanding of young adults' risk taking on the road, and to the development of road safety programs.

Spanish young adults’ perceptions of the costs and benefits of risky driving behaviors

We used an open-ended survey to elicit Spanish young adults’ perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of speeding and not wearing a seatbelt (or helmet). Around half of the sample reported past engagement in these two risky behaviors, although forecasted engagement was low. Past and forecasted risk taking were positively correlated. Participants provided more drawbacks than benefits of each risky behavior. Drawbacks typically referred to a combination of behavioral acts and social reactions (e.g., accident, punishment) that occurred during the journey. By contrast, benefits largely referred to personal effects (e.g., save time, comfort) that occurred after the journey had ended (speeding) or during the journey (not wearing a seatbelt/helmet). These findings contribute to our theoretical understanding of young adults’ risk taking on the road, and to the development of road safety programs (AU)

En un estudio en el que se ha empleado la metodología de encuestas, hemos analizado las percepciones que tienen los adultos jóvenes en España sobre los beneficios e inconvenientes derivados de la conducción de un coche (moto) a elevada velocidad y sin cinturón (casco). La mitad de nuestros participantes informaron que habían realizado estas conductas de riesgo, aunque sus predicciones sobre la realización de las mismas en el futuro eran menores. Estos informes y predicciones correlacionaban positivamente. Los adultos jóvenes, además, mencionaron más inconvenientes que ventajas derivadas de las conductas. Los inconvenientes generalmente hacían referencia a una combinación de conductas y reacciones sociales que ocurrirían durante el trayecto (por ejemplo, accidentes y sanciones). Por el contrario, los beneficios hacían referencia a consecuencias personales que ocurrirían cuando el trayecto hubiera concluido o durante el mismo (por ejemplo, ahorro de tiempo y comodidad). Estos resultados contribuyen a nuestra comprensión de las conductas de riesgo de los adultos jóvenes en la carretera, y pueden favorecer el desarrollo de programas de prevención (AU)

Canadian and Spanish youths' risk perceptions of drinking and driving, and riding with a drunk driver.

The present research compared Canadian and Spanish youths' perceptions of the potential benefits and drawbacks of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) and riding with a drunk driver (RDD). Eighty (41 female) Canadian and 87 (71 female) Spanish undergraduates completed a survey asking about their past and forecasted engagement in DUI and RDD, and their perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of DUI and RDD. A sizeable proportion of both samples reported DUI and RDD in the past year. Past risk takers forecasted significantly greater chances of engaging in these behaviors in the following year compared to those who had not engaged in DUI and RDD. Both samples provided significantly more drawbacks than benefits of DUI and RDD. Whereas the benefits of both behaviors tended to refer to personal effects (e.g., save money, arrive faster) that occurred before, during, or after driving, the drawbacks referred to a range of outcomes (e.g., accident, kill/injure, penal sanction) that mostly occurred during driving. Although Canada and Spain differ in important respects (e.g., potential penalty for DUI), there were similarities in the two samples' perceptions of DUI and RDD. Young people are aware of the costs of these risky behaviors but nevertheless engage in them. These findings can inform theories of the co-occurrence of risky driving behaviors, and the development of prevention programs that focus on perceived outcomes.

Pictures speak louder than numbers: on communicating medical risks to immigrants with limited non-native language proficiency.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Medical risk communication has been infrequently studied in immigrants with limited non-native language proficiency, even though they may be at greatest risk of illness. In a study, we examined to what extent Polish immigrants to the UK have difficulties in understanding treatment risk reduction expressed as ratios either in their native language or in a non-native language (English). We further investigated whether this population can be aided by using visual displays to enhance comprehension. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A survey was conducted in the UK in spring, 2009, involving a sample of Polish immigrants (n = 96). OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimates of treatment risk reduction, confidence in estimates, and perceptions of treatment effectiveness. RESULTS: When assessing treatment risk reduction, participants often paid too much attention to the number of treated and non-treated patients who died (i.e. numerators) and insufficient attention to the overall number of treated and non-treated patients (i.e. denominators). This denominator neglect was especially noticeable when treatment risk reduction was not expressed in participants' native language. However, provision of visual aids in addition to the numerical information about risk reduction proved to be an effective method for eliminating denominator neglect. The visual aids drew participants' attention to the overall number of treated and non-treated patients and helped them to make more accurate risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS: When communicating risks to immigrants with limited non-native language proficiency, we should move beyond the simple, direct translation of health messages that are already being used with the indigenous population to messages that are more appropriate. The use of materials that include visual aids is an effective method of communicating medical risk information to immigrant populations.