Forecasting weekly dengue incidence in Sri Lanka: Modified Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling approach.

Dengue poses a significant and multifaceted public health challenge in Sri Lanka, encompassing both preventive and curative aspects. Accurate dengue incidence forecasting is pivotal for effective surveillance and disease control. To address this, we developed an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model tailored for predicting weekly dengue cases in the Colombo district. The modeling process drew on comprehensive weekly dengue fever data from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports (WER), spanning January 2015 to August 2020. Following rigorous model selection, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model, augmented with an autoregressive component (AR) of order 16, emerged as the best-fitted model. It underwent initial calibration and fine-tuning using data from January 2015 to August 2020, and was validated against independent 2000 data. Selection criteria included parameter significance, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). Importantly, the residuals of the ARIMA model conformed to the assumptions of randomness, constant variance, and normality affirming its suitability. The forecasts closely matched observed dengue incidence, offering a valuable tool for public health decision-makers. However, an increased percentage error was noted in late 2020, likely attributed to factors including potential underreporting due to COVID-19-related disruptions amid rising dengue cases. This research contributes to the critical task of managing dengue outbreaks and underscores the dynamic challenges posed by external influences on disease surveillance.

Towards a greener future: examining carbon emission dynamics in Asia amid gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness on carbon emission in Asia. Among the 48 countries in Asia, 42 were included in the analysis, spanning a period of 20 years. Given that Asia is the predominant contributor, accounting for 53% of global emissions as of 2019, a comprehensive examination at both continental and individual country levels becomes imperative. Such an approach aligns with local, regional, and global development agendas, contributing directly and indirectly to climate change mitigation. The analytical techniques employed in this study encompassed panel regression and multiple linear regression, illuminating the specific contributions of each country to the study variables and their impact on carbon emissions. The findings suggest that gross domestic product (13 out of 42 countries), energy consumption (21 out of 42 countries), and trade openness (eight out of 42 countries) have a highly significant impact (p < 0.01) on carbon emissions in Asia. Energy consumption plays a vital role in increasing carbon emissions in Asia, driven by rising populations, urbanisation, and oil and gas production. Policymakers can take several actions such as adopting a carbon pricing system, using sustainable transportation, renewable energy development, and international cooperation within Asia to reach the goal of being carbon neutral by 2050.

The cost of aging: Economic growth perspectives for Europe.

This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s.

Exploring the growth direction: the impact of exchange rate and purchasing managers index on economic growth in Sri Lanka.

Numerous studies have been conducted, globally and locally, on the impact of the exchange rate on economic growth. In the local context, only a handful of research have investigated this area of study to determine the extent to which the Purchasing Managers' Index influence economic growth with the exchange rate, with limited research have been performed in Sri Lanka. This study explores the impact of exchange rate and Purchasing Managers' Index on economic growth. Consequently, adopting an applied research methodology, the present study was based on secondary data published quarterly by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka reports and the Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2021. The Vector autoregression model and Granger Causality Wald test were performed in this study. The empirical findings highlighted that economic growth and Purchasing Managers' Index have a significant negative impact on the economic growth, while the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the economic growth. Furthermore, the exchange rate and the Purchasing Managers' Index did not help to predict the exchange rate. The implications of the study demonstrate the relevance of the exchange rate and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index as indicators of changes in overall economic growth activities at the macro level. The findings will assist the Sri Lankan Government, policymakers, and foreign investors for effective decision making.