Multicomponent Behavioural Intervention during Pregnancy to Reduce Home Exposure to Second-Hand Smoke: A Pilot Randomised Controlled Trial in Bangladesh and India.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women exposed to second-hand smoke (SHS) are at increased risk of poor birth outcomes. We piloted multicomponent behavioural intervention and trial methods in Bangalore, India, and Comilla, Bangladesh. METHODS: A pilot individual randomised controlled trial with economic and process evaluation components was conducted. Non-tobacco-using pregnant women exposed to SHS were recruited from clinics and randomly allocated to intervention or control (educational leaflet) arms. The process evaluation captured feedback on the trial methods and intervention components. The economic component piloted a service use questionnaire. The primary outcome was saliva cotinine 3 months post-intervention. RESULTS: Most pregnant women and many husbands engaged with the intervention and rated the components highly, although the cotinine report elicited some anxiety. Forty-eight (Comilla) and fifty-four (Bangalore) women were recruited. The retention at 3 months was 100% (Comilla) and 78% (Bangalore). Primary outcome data were available for 98% (Comilla) and 77% (Bangalore). CONCLUSIONS: The multicomponent behavioural intervention was feasible to deliver and was acceptable to the interventionists, pregnant women, and husbands. With the intervention, it was possible to recruit, randomise, and retain pregnant women in Bangladesh and India. The cotinine data will inform sample size calculations for a future definitive trial.

Association between household air pollution and nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage in Malawian infants (MSCAPE): a nested, prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Household air pollution from solid fuels increases the risk of childhood pneumonia. Nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae is a necessary step in the development of pneumococcal pneumonia. We aimed to assess the association between exposure to household air pollution and the prevalence and density of S pneumoniae carriage among children. METHODS: The Malawi Streptococcus pneumoniae Carriage and Air Pollution Exposure study was a nested, prospective, observational study of children participating in the cluster randomised controlled Cooking and Pneumonia Study (CAPS) in the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in northern Malawi. CAPS compared the effects of a cleaner burning biomass-fuelled cookstove (intervention group) with traditional open-fire cooking (control group) on the incidence of pneumonia in children. Eligible children aged 6 weeks or 6 months (those recruited a 6 weeks were also followed up at age 6 months) were identified by the Karonga HDSS centre. Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken to detect S pneumoniae, and infant exposure to particulate matter with a diameter of ≤2·5 µm (PM2·5) exposure was assessed by use of a MicroPEM device. The primary outcome was the prevalence of nasopharyngeal S pneumoniae carriage in all children aged 6 months, assessed in all children with valid data on PM2·5. The effects of the intervention stoves (intention-to-treat analysis) and PM2·5 (adjusted exposure-response analysis) on the prevalence of S pneumoniae carriage were also assessed in the study children. FINDINGS: Between Nov 15, 2015, and Nov 2, 2017, 485 children were recruited (240 from the intervention group and 245 from the control group). Of all 450 children with available data at age 6 months, 387 (86% [95% CI 82-89]) were positive for S pneumoniae. Geometric mean PM2·5 exposure was 60·3 µg/m3 (95% CI 55·8-65·3) in S pneumoniae-positive children and 47·0 µg/m3 (38·3-57·7) in S pneumoniae-negative children (p=0·044). In the intention-to-treat analysis, a non-significant increase in the risk of S pneumoniae carriage was observed in intervention group children compared with control group children (odds ratio 1·36 [95% CI 0·95-1·94]; p=0·093). In the exposure-response analysis, a significant association between PM2·5 exposure and S pneumoniae carriage was observed; a one unit increase in decile of PM2·5 was found to significantly increase the risk of S pneumoniae carriage by 10% (1·10 [1·01-1·20]; p=0·035), after adjustment for age, sex, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination status, season, current use of antibiotics, and MicroPEM run-time. INTERPRETATION: Despite the absence of effect from the intervention cookstove, household air pollution exposure was significantly associated with the prevalence of nasopharyngeal S pneumoniae carriage. These results provide empirical evidence for the potential mechanistic association between exposure to household air pollution and childhood pneumonia. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A behaviour change intervention to reduce home exposure to second hand smoke during pregnancy in India and Bangladesh: a theory and evidence-based approach to development.

BACKGROUND: Home exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) is highly prevalent amongst pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries like India and Bangladesh. The literature on the efficacy of behaviour change interventions to reduce home exposure to SHS in pregnancy is scarce. METHODS: We employed a theory and evidence-based approach to develop an intervention using pregnant women as agents of change for their husband's smoking behaviours at home. A systematic review of SHS behaviour change interventions led us to focus on developing a multicomponent intervention and informed selection of behaviour change techniques (BCTs) for review in a modified Delphi survey. The modified Delphi survey provided expert consensus on the most effective BCTs in reducing home exposure to SHS. Finally, a qualitative interview study provided context and detailed understanding of knowledge, attitudes and practices around SHS. This insight informed the content and delivery of the proposed intervention components. RESULTS: The final intervention consisted of four components: a report on saliva cotinine levels of the pregnant woman, a picture booklet containing information about SHS and its impact on health as well strategies to negotiate a smoke-free home, a letter from the future baby to their father encouraging him to provide a smoke-free home, and automated voice reminder and motivational messages delivered to husbands on their mobile phone. Intervention delivery was in a single face-to-face session with a research assistant who explained the cotinine report, discussed key strategies for ensuring a smoke-free environment at home and practised with pregnant women how they would share the booklet and letter with their husband and supportive family members. CONCLUSION: A theory and evidence-based approach informed the development of a multicomponent behaviour change intervention, described here. The acceptability and feasibility of the intervention which was subsequently tested in a pilot RCT in India and Bangladesh will be published later.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and association with low birth weight in displaced population following conflict in Malakand division, Pakistan: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: The northern part of the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan experienced armed conflict since September 2007 till the autumn of 2011. Conflict involved widespread insurgency activity and military intervention including in 2009 internally displacing the 2.5 million people of the valley of Swat to live in camps, with relatives, or in rented accommodation across the region for approximately 4 months. It was during this period the current study was conducted to determine whether Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in pregnant women was independently associated with Low Birth Weight (LBW) in an area affected by conflict and militancy. METHODS: A case control study was conducted in tertiary care hospitals of district Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Two hundred twenty-five cases (neonates with birth weight <  2.5 kg) and 225 controls (neonates with birth weight of > 2.5 kg) were enrolled within 24 h of delivery. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder was assessed through the MINI Neuropsychiatric Interview 5.0, a validated questionnaire along with the birth weight of the newborn. Maternal anthropometry, anemia and other sociodemographic details were also obtained during data collection. Data was analyzed using statistical package (STATA version 14). Logistic regression analysis of the association between LBW and all variables collected with a p-value of < 0.25 on uni-variate analysis were entered. RESULTS: A total of 450 newborn and mother pairs participated in the study with 225 cases and 225 controls. On univariate analysis factors significantly associated with LBW include: less than 5 years of paternal schooling and PTSD. On logistic regression, PTSD was independently associated with low birth weight in the presence of other factors like maternal/paternal schooling, gravida, history of preterm, BMI of the mother and maternal anemia. CONCLUSION: PTSD was found to be independently associated with LBW. In light of the current findings and other similar literature, intervention programs should be considered for pregnant women exposed to traumatic events.

Behaviour change interventions to reduce second-hand smoke exposure at home in pregnant women - a systematic review and intervention appraisal.

BACKGROUND: Second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure during pregnancy is associated with poor pregnancy and foetal outcomes. Theory-based behaviour change interventions (BCI) have been used successfully to change smoking related behaviours and offer the potential to reduce exposure of SHS in pregnant women. Systematic reviews conducted so far do not evaluate the generalisability and scalability of interventions. The objectives of this review were to (1) report the BCIs for reduction in home exposure to SHS for pregnant women; and (2) critically appraise intervention-reporting, generalisability, feasibility and scalability of the BCIs employed. METHODS: Standard methods following PRISMA guidelines were employed. Eight databases were searched from 2000 to 2015 in English. The studies included used BCIs on pregnant women to reduce their home SHS exposure by targeting husbands/partners. The Workgroup for Intervention Development and Evaluation Research (WIDER) guidelines were used to assess intervention reporting. Generalisability, feasibility and scalability were assessed against criteria described by Bonell and Milat. RESULTS: Of 3479 papers identified, six studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies found that BCIs led to increased knowledge about SHS harms, reduction or husbands quitting smoking, and increased susceptibility and change in level of actions to reduce SHS at home. Two studies reported objective exposure measures, and one reported objective health outcomes. The studies partially followed WIDER guidelines for reporting, and none met all generalisability, feasibility and scalability criteria. CONCLUSIONS: There is a dearth of literature in this area and the quality of studies reviewed was moderate to low. The BCIs appear effective in reducing SHS, however, weak study methodology (self-reported exposure, lack of objective outcome assessment, short follow-up, absence of control group) preclude firm conclusion. Some components of the WIDER checklist were followed for BCI reporting, scalability and feasibility of the studies were not described. More rigorous studies using biochemical and clinical measures for exposures and health outcomes in varied study settings are required. Studies should report interventions in detail using WIDER checklist and assess them for generalisability, feasibility and scalability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD40125026666.

Evaluating feasibility and acceptability of a local psycho-educational intervention for pregnant women with common mental problems affected by armed conflict in Swat, Pakistan: A parallel randomized controlled feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: The current research was conducted in the Swat valley, where widespread conflict and militancy had been experienced prior to the field activities. The aim of this trial was to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a locally developed psycho-educational intervention. METHODS: This mixed-methods study incorporated a quantitative and qualitative component. For the quantitative component, trial participants were identified from a cross-sectional study conducted in the earlier phase of the research, with Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ) score of ≥9. Participants with suicidal ideation, severe mental or medical illness, recently given birth or living with another woman with an SRQ score of 9 or above were excluded. Participants fulfilling eligibility were randomized on a 1:1 allocation ratio using simple randomization to the psycho-educational intervention or routine care arm. The intervention arm received two psycho-educational sessions at their homes delivered by local community health worker from the study area. The primary outcome was help-seeking for psychological distress, measured by a semi-structured interview by a researcher blind to the allocation status at 2 months post-intervention. Secondary outcomes include psychological distress and social support measured by SRQ and Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), respectively, at 2 months post-intervention. Intervention acceptability was explored through in-depth interviews. RESULTS: Local community health workers with no mental health experience successfully delivered the psycho-educational sessions in the community. The uptake of intervention was good and the intervention was taken well by the families and the community health workers. The outcome evaluation was not powered; however, more women sought assistance for their distress from their community health workers in the intervention arm, compared to women in the control arm. CONCLUSION: This trial showed good acceptance and feasible delivery of a locally developed psycho-educational intervention through community health workers following conflict, giving way for further adaptation and evaluation.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Real-life effectiveness of 'improved' stoves and clean fuels in reducing PM2.5 and CO: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: 2.8 billion people cook with solid fuels, resulting in almost 3 million premature deaths from household air pollution (HAP). To date, no systematic assessment of impacts on HAP of 'improved' stove and clean fuel interventions has been conducted. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review synthesizes evidence for changes in kitchen and personal PM2.5 and carbon monoxide (CO) following introduction of 'improved' solid fuel stoves and cleaner fuels in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: Searches of published and unpublished literature were conducted through databases and specialist websites. Eligible studies reported mean (24 or 48h) small particulate matter (majority PM2.5) and/or CO. Eligible interventions were solid fuel stoves (with/without chimneys, advanced combustion), clean fuels (liquefied petroleum gas, biogas, ethanol, electricity, solar) and mixed. Data extraction and quality appraisal were undertaken using standardized forms, and publication bias assessed. Baseline and post-intervention values and percentage changes were tabulated and weighted averages calculated. Meta-analyses of absolute changes in PM and CO were conducted. RESULTS: Most of the 42 included studies (112 estimates) addressed solid fuel stoves. Large reductions in pooled kitchen PM2.5 (ranging from 41% (29-50%) for advanced combustion stoves to 83% (64-94%) for ethanol stoves), and CO (ranging from 39% (11-55%) for solid fuel stoves without chimneys to 82% (75-95%) for ethanol stoves. Reductions in personal exposure of 55% (19-87%) and 52% (-7-69%) for PM2.5 and CO respectively, were observed for solid fuel stoves with chimneys. For the majority of interventions, post-intervention kitchen PM2.5 levels remained well above WHO air quality guideline (AQG) limit values, although most met the AQG limit value for CO. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses did not substantially alter findings; publication bias was evident for chimney stove interventions but this was restricted to before-and-after studies. CONCLUSIONS: In everyday use in LMIC, neither 'improved' solid fuel stoves nor clean fuels (probably due to neighbourhood contamination) achieve PM2.5 concentrations close to 24-hour AQG limit values. Household energy policy should prioritise community-wide use of clean fuels.

"He Doesn't Listen to My Words at All, So I Don't Tell Him Anything"-A Qualitative Investigation on Exposure to Second Hand Smoke among Pregnant Women, Their Husbands and Family Members from Rural Bangladesh and Urban India.

Second hand smoke (SHS) exposure during pregnancy is associated with poor pregnancy and fetal outcomes. To design interventions to reduce exposure, an in depth understanding of social and cultural factors of smoking behavior at home is important, especially in South Asia where SHS exposure is high. This study aimed to explore pregnant women's, their husbands' and other family members' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding home SHS exposure. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 33 participants in Comilla, Bangladesh and 31 in Bangalore, India (36 pregnant women, 18 husbands, and 10 family members). Data were analyzed using the Framework approach. Husbands smoked in various living areas inside the home, often in the presence of their pregnant wives. Most had never tried to stop smoking at home. Knowledge of the risks was generally poor. Most women had repeatedly asked their husband to smoke outside with little success and only few family members had reprimanded the husbands. Husbands who had stopped did so because of requests from children and their mother. Potential strategies to decrease SHS exposure at home were educating the husband about risks and supporting the pregnant women in negotiation. Interventions must also enlist family support to enhance the woman's self-efficacy.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

BACKGROUND: Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. METHODS: Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. RESULTS: Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. DISCUSSION: CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

Psychological distress and its associations with past events in pregnant women affected by armed conflict in Swat, Pakistan: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The public health significance of maternal mental health is well established. Armed conflicts expose populations to events that could have long-term negative consequences for mental health of pregnant women and their children. This study explores the prevalence and associated risk factors for psychological distress of women during pregnancy, including exposure to past conflict-related potentially traumatic events, in a population exposed to armed conflict in the Swat region of Pakistan. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey of 349 pregnant women in two union councils in Swat was conducted. Psychological distress was measured using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ). Conflict-related potentially traumatic events (PTEs) were measured through an adapted version of the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. Information was also collected on major life events (Life Events Checklist), social support (Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support), and demographic and socio-economic variables. RESULTS: Prevalence of current psychological distress was 38.1 % (95 % CI: 33.1, 43.3). Psychological distress was significantly associated with three or more potentially traumatic events (PTEs) experienced during the conflict (OR = 2.62, 95 % CI: 1.22, 5.61); three or more major life events in the year following the conflict (OR = 3.25, 95 % CI: 1.82, 5.82) and inversely associated with family support (OR = 0.91, 95 % CI: 0.88, 0.95). CONCLUSION: This is one of the first community based cross sectional surveys in Swat valley, Pakistan to assess the prevalence of psychological distress during pregnancy in an area affected by conflict. Over a third of women show evidence of significant psychological distress. Exposure to potentially traumatic events remained independently associated with psychological distress 1 year after conflict ended, suggesting that conflict exposure may have long-term impacts upon maternal mental health. Combining this with findings relating to the cumulative impact of major life-events, and the protective factor of family support highlights the importance of developing culturally appropriate psychological interventions accessible to pregnant women rebuilding their lives following conflict.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). INTERPRETATION: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Does household use of biomass fuel cause lung cancer? A systematic review and evaluation of the evidence for the GBD 2010 study.

BACKGROUND: Around 2.4 billion people use traditional biomass fuels for household cooking or heating. In 2006, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded emissions from household coal combustion are a Group 1 carcinogen, while those from biomass were categorised as 2A due to epidemiologic limitations. This review updates the epidemiologic evidence and provides risk estimates for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS: Searches were conducted of 10 databases to July 2012 for studies of clinically diagnosed or pathologically confirmed lung cancer associated with household biomass use for cooking and/or heating. FINDINGS: Fourteen eligible studies of biomass cooking or heating were identified: 13 had independent estimates (12 cooking only), all were case-control designs and provided 8221 cases and 11 342 controls. The ORs for lung cancer risk with biomass for cooking and/or heating were OR 1.17 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.37) overall, and 1.15 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.37) for cooking only. Publication bias was not detected, but more than half the studies did not explicitly describe a clean reference category. Sensitivity analyses restricted to studies with adequate adjustment and a clean reference category found ORs of 1.21 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.39) for men (two reports, compiling five studies) and 1.95 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.27) for women (five reports, compiling eight studies). Exposure-response evidence was seen for men, and higher risk for women in developing compared with developed countries, consistent with higher exposures in the former. CONCLUSIONS: There is now stronger evidence for biomass fuel use causing lung cancer, but future studies need better exposure assessment to strengthen exposure-response evidence.

Millions dead: how do we know and what does it mean? Methods used in the comparative risk assessment of household air pollution.

In the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) done as part of the Global Burden of Disease project (GBD-2010), the global and regional burdens of household air pollution (HAP) due to the use of solid cookfuels, were estimated along with 60+ other risk factors. This article describes how the HAP CRA was framed; how global HAP exposures were modeled; how diseases were judged to have sufficient evidence for inclusion; and how meta-analyses and exposure-response modeling were done to estimate relative risks. We explore relationships with the other air pollution risk factors: ambient air pollution, smoking, and secondhand smoke. We conclude with sensitivity analyses to illustrate some of the major uncertainties and recommendations for future work. We estimate that in 2010 HAP was responsible for 3.9 million premature deaths and ∼4.8% of lost healthy life years (DALYs), ranking it highest among environmental risk factors examined and one of the major risk factors of any type globally.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS: We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS: For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION: The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Control of household air pollution for child survival: estimates for intervention impacts.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels affects 2.8 billion people in developing countries, including children and pregnant women. The aim of this review is to propose intervention estimates for child survival outcomes linked to HAP. METHODS: Systematic reviews with meta-analysis were conducted for ages 0-59 months, for child pneumonia, adverse pregnancy outcomes, stunting and all-cause mortality. Evidence for each outcome was assessed against Bradford-Hill viewpoints, and GRADE used for certainty about intervention effect size for which all odds ratios (OR) are presented as protective effects. RESULTS: Reviews found evidence linking HAP exposure with child ALRI, low birth weight (LBW), stillbirth, preterm birth, stunting and all-cause mortality. Most studies were observational and rated low/very low in GRADE despite strong causal evidence for some outcomes; only one randomised trial was eligible.Intervention effect (OR) estimates of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.75) for ALRI, 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) for LBW and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for stillbirth are proposed, specific outcomes for which causal evidence was sufficient. Exposure-response evidence suggests this is a conservative estimate for ALRI risk reduction expected with sustained, low exposure. Statistically significant protective ORs were also found for stunting [OR=0.79 (0.70, 0.89)], and in one study of pre-term birth [OR=0.70 (0.54, 0.90)], indicating these outcomes would also likely be reduced. Five studies of all-cause mortality had an OR of 0.79 (0.70, 0.89), but heterogenity precludes a reliable estimate for mortality impact. Although interventions including clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves are available and can deliver low exposure levels, significant challenges remain in achieving sustained use at scale among low-income households. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing exposure to HAP could substantially reduce the risk of several child survival outcomes, including fatal pneumonia, and the proposed effects could be achieved by interventions delivering low exposures. Larger impacts are anticipated if WHO air quality guidelines are met. To achieve these benefits, clean fuels should be adopted where possible, and for other households the most effective solid fuel stoves promoted. To strengthen evidence, new studies with thorough exposure assessment are required, along with evaluation of the longer-term acceptance and impacts of interventions.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of disease attributable to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from episodes of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to RSV in children younger than 5 years in 2005. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, using data from a systematic review of studies published between January, 1995, and June, 2009, and ten unpublished population-based studies. We estimated possible boundaries for RSV-associated ALRI mortality by combining case fatality ratios with incidence estimates from hospital-based reports from published and unpublished studies and identifying studies with population-based data for RSV seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. FINDINGS: In 2005, an estimated 33.8 (95% CI 19.3-46.2) million new episodes of RSV-associated ALRI occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years (22% of ALRI episodes), with at least 3.4 (2.8-4.3) million episodes representing severe RSV-associated ALRI necessitating hospital admission. We estimated that 66 000-199 000 children younger than 5 years died from RSV-associated ALRI in 2005, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality can vary substantially from year to year in any one setting. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is the most common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of admission to hospital as a result of severe ALRI. Mortality data suggest that RSV is an important cause of death in childhood from ALRI, after pneumococcal pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae type b. The development of novel prevention and treatment strategies should be accelerated as a priority. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indoor air pollution from unprocessed solid fuel use and pneumonia risk in children aged under five years: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Reduction of indoor air pollution (IAP) exposure from solid fuel use is a potentially important intervention for childhood pneumonia prevention. This review updates a prior meta-analysis and investigates whether risk varies by etiological agent and pneumonia severity among children aged less than 5 years who are exposed to unprocessed solid fuels. Searches were made of electronic databases (including Africa, China and Latin America) without language restriction. Search terms covered all sources of IAP and wide-ranging descriptions of acute lower respiratory infections, including viral and bacterial agents. From 5317 studies in the main electronic databases (plus 307 African and Latin American, and 588 Chinese studies, in separate databases), 25 were included in the review and 24 were suitable for meta-analysis. Due to substantial statistical heterogeneity, random effects models were used. The overall pooled odds ratio was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.45-2.18), almost unchanged at 1.79 (95% CI: 1.26-2.21) after exclusion of studies with low exposure prevalence (< 15%) and one high outlier. There was evidence of publication bias, and the implications for the results are explored. Sensitivity subanalyses assessed the impact of control selection, adjustment for confounding, exposure and outcome assessment, and age, but no strong effects were identified. Evidence on respiratory syncytial virus was conflicting, while risk for severe or fatal pneumonia was similar to or higher than that for all pneumonia. Despite heterogeneity, this analysis demonstrated sufficient consistency to conclude that risk of pneumonia in young children is increased by exposure to unprocessed solid fuels by a factor of 1.8. Greater efforts are now required to implement effective interventions.

Blood levels of vitamin C, carotenoids and retinol are inversely associated with cataract in a North Indian population.

PURPOSE: To examine the association of blood antioxidants with cataract. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of people aged >or=50 years identified from a household enumeration of 11 randomly sampled villages in North India. Participants were interviewed for putative risk factors (tobacco, alcohol, biomass fuel use, sunlight exposure, and socioeconomic status) and underwent lens photography and blood sampling. Lens photographs (nuclear, cortical, and posterior subcapsular) were graded according to the Lens Opacities Classification System (LOCS II). Cataract was defined as LOCS II grade >or=2 for any opacity or ungradable, because of dense opacification or history of cataract surgery. People without cataract were defined as LOCS II <2 on all three types of opacity, with absence of previous surgery. RESULTS: Of 1443 people aged >or=50 years, 94% were interviewed, 87% attended an eye examination, and 78% gave a blood sample; 1112 (77%) were included in the analyses. Compared with levels in Western populations, antioxidants were low, especially vitamin C. Vitamin C was inversely associated with cataract. Odds ratios (OR) for the highest (>or=15 micromol/L) compared with the lowest (