ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. OBJECTIVES: Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). METHODS: A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). RESULTS: The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies.
Subject(s)
Cities , Hot Temperature , Risk Assessment , Aged , Humans , Italy , Linear Models , Models, Theoretical , SeasonsABSTRACT
The role of flavonoids in the response of plants to Plasmopara viticola, the phytopathogen agent of downy mildew, was studied in the Vitis vinifera L. cultivar Sangiovese. Grapevines in the vineyard were exposed to two light regimes, 100% and 35% of full sunlight in order to induce differences in total leaf polyphenolic content. Epidermal leaf phenolic compounds were assessed optically, using the Dualex chlorophyll fluorescence-based portable leaf-clip. Dualex data were calibrated by means of HPLC analysis of extracts from the same measured leaves. Good correlations were obtained with total flavonoid contents, which consist mainly of quercetin 3-O-glucuronide. From the Dualex non-destructive measurements, we showed that full-sun exposed leaves contained 75% more flavonoids than shaded leaves. Inoculation of leaves with P. viticola sporangia resulted in a significantly lower infected leaf area in sun-lit leaves compared with shaded ones, as seen from subsequent analysis of the downy mildew severity. These results indicated an inverse relationship between preformed flavonoids and the susceptibility of grapevines to downy mildew. The rapid optical method for the non-destructive assessment of flavonoids presented here could be useful for large scale screening and predicting V. vinifera susceptibility to P. viticola.
