Harness risk stratification of diabetic patients with dengue in a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying predictors of severe dengue (SD) is key for triage and management of patients as well as for advising travellers to countries where dengue is endemic. In this, meta-analyses have raised diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for SD and a prognostic factor for dengue-related mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess whether diabetic patients (DPs) are at increased risk for SD in comparison to non-diabetic patients (NDPs) in a setting of high prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and increasing endemicity for dengue. METHODS: In a cohort study conducted during the 2019 dengue epidemic on Reunion Island, we estimated the risk ratios (RR) of DPs for SD (WHO 2009 definition), hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, critical care need or death in the ICU, and scales rating severity or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), among confirmed cases of dengue (positive RT-PCR or NS1 antigen). RESULTS: In a Poisson regression model adjusted for age, gender and comorbidity, DPs were more likely to develop SD (adjusted RR: 1.46, 95%CI 1.10-1.95), to be hospitalised, admitted to the ICU, and need critical care or die in the ICU. Subgroup analyses identified female DPs, non-elderly DPs (< 65 years) and DPs with low Charlson score (< 3) to be at higher risk for SD, the two first subgroups trough more severe presentation (higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score-2 values; higher MODS scores, respectively). Male gender, age less than 65 years and mixed comorbidity were identified as prognostic factors for critical care need or death in the ICU, male and non-elderly DPs being more likely to develop MODS than their non-diabetic counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these data highlight the role of diabetes mellitus in the progression from dengue to SD through higher severity per se or the event of MODS.

Diagnostic performance of the WHO definition of probable dengue within the first 5 days of symptoms on Reunion Island.

The relevance of the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for defining probable dengue had not yet been evaluated in the context of dengue endemicity on Reunion Island. The objective of this retrospective diagnostic study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the 2009 WHO definition of probable dengue and to propose an improvement thereof. From the medical database, we retrieved the data of subjects admitted to the emergency department of the University Hospital of Reunion Island in 2019 with suspected dengue fever (DF) within a maximum of 5 days post symptom onset, and whose diagnosis was confirmed by a Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). The intrinsic characteristics of probable dengue definitions were reported in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), using RT-PCR as the gold standard. Of the 1,181 subjects who exhibited a positive RT-PCR, 652 (55%) were classified as probable dengue. The WHO definition of probable dengue yielded a sensitivity of 64% (95%CI 60-67%), a specificity of 57% (95%CI 52-61%), a LR+ of 1.49 (95%CI 1.33-1.67), and a LR- of 0.63 (95%CI 0.56-0.72). The sensitivity and LR- for diagnosing and ruling out probable dengue could be improved by the addition of lymphopenia on admission (74% [95%CI: 71-78%] and 0.54 [95%CI: 0.46-0.63] respectively), at the cost of slight reductions of specificity and LR+ (48% [95%CI: 44-53%] and 1.42 [95%CI: 1.29-1.57], respectively). In the absence of, or when rapid diagnostic testing is unreliable, the use of the improved 2009 WHO definition of probable dengue could facilitate the identification of subjects who require further RT-PCR testing, which should encourage the development of patient management, while also optimizing the count and quarantine of cases, and guiding disease control.

Dengue clinical features and harbingers of severity in the diabetic patient: A retrospective cohort study on Reunion island, 2019.

AIM: Diabetes mellitus is associated with both the risks of severe dengue and dengue-related deaths, however the factors characterizing dengue in the diabetic patient are ill-recognized. The objective of this hospital-based cohort study was to identify the factors characterizing dengue and those able to early identify dengue severity in the diabetic patient. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed demographic, clinical and biological parameters at admission in the cohort of patients who consulted at the university hospital between January and June 2019 with confirmed dengue. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Of 936 patients, 184 patients (20%) were diabetic. One hundred and eighty-eight patients (20%) developed severe dengue according to the WHO 2009 definition. Diabetic patients were older and had more comorbidities than non-diabetics. In an age-adjusted logistic regression model, loss of appetite, altered mental status, high neutrophil to platelet ratios (>14.7), low haematocrit (≤ 38%), upper-range serum creatinine (>100 µmol/l) and high urea to creatinine ratio (>50) were indicative of dengue in the diabetic patient. A modified Poisson regression model identified four key independent harbingers of severe dengue in the diabetic patient: presence of diabetes complications, non-severe bleeding, altered mental status and cough. Among diabetes complications, diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy, but not diabetic nephropathy nor diabetic foot, were associated with severe dengue. CONCLUSION: At hospital first presentation, dengue in the diabetic patient is characterized by deteriorations in appetite, mental and renal functioning, while severe dengue can be early identified by presence of diabetes complications, dengue-related non-severe haemorrhages, cough, and dengue-related encephalopathy.