National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among pregnant women in Scotland during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective national serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women in the Scottish population during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective national serosurvey. METHODS: We tested 13,428 residual samples retrieved from pregnant women participating in the first trimester combined ultrasound and biochemical screening for fetal trisomy across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 6-month period from November 2020 to April 2021. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. RESULTS: Seroprevalence rates in the antenatal samples significantly increased from 5.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7%-6.5%) in the 5-week period up to and including International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Week 51 (w/b Monday 14 December 2020) to 11.3% (95% CI 10.1%-12.6%) in the 5-week period up to and including ISO Week 14 (w/b Monday 5 April 2021). Increasing seroprevalence trends across the second wave were observed among all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: By the end of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately one in 10 women tested around the end of the first trimester of pregnancy had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that the vast majority were still susceptible to COVID-19 as they progressed to the later stages of pregnancy, when risks from infection are elevated for both mother and baby.

National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Studies that measure the prevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ('seroprevalence') are essential to understand population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We aimed to measure seroprevalence in the Scottish population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic - from before the first recorded case in Scotland through to the second pandemic wave. STUDY DESIGN: The study design of this study is serial cross sectional. METHODS: We tested 41,477 residual samples retrieved from primary and antenatal care settings across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 12-month period from December 2019-December 2020 (before rollout of COVID-19 vaccination). Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. Temporal trends in seroprevalence estimates and weekly SARS-CoV-2 notifications were compared. RESULTS: Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence rates were 0% until the end of March, when they increased contemporaneously with the first pandemic wave. Seroprevalence rates remained stable through the summer (range: 3%-5%) during a period of social restrictions, after which they increased concurrently with the second wave, reaching 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.4%-10.8%) in the week beginning 28th December in 2020. Seroprevalence rates were lower in rural vs. urban areas (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.79) and among individuals aged 20-39 years and 60 years and older (AOR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64-0.86; AOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69-0.91, respectively) relative to those aged 0-19 years. CONCLUSIONS: After two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, less than one in ten individuals in the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence may underestimate the true population exposure as a result of waning antibodies among individuals who were infected early in the first wave.

Enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland: population-based seroprevalence surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland has been amongst the most severe in Europe. Serological surveillance is critical to determine the overall extent of infection across populations and to inform the public health response. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of people who have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 ('seroprevalence') in the general population of Scotland and to see if this changes over time. STUDY DESIGN/METHODS: Between International Organization for Standardization (ISO) week 17 (i.e. week commencing 20th April) and ISO week 25 (week commencing 15 June), 4751 residual blood samples were obtained from regional biochemistry laboratories in six participating regional health authority areas covering approximately 75% of the Scottish population. Samples were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using the LIAISON®SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG assay (DiaSorin, Italy). Seroprevalence rates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assay using Bayesian methods. RESULTS: The combined adjusted seroprevalence across the study period was 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%-4.5%). The proportion varied each week between 1.9% and 6.8% with no difference in antibody positivity by age, sex or geographical area. CONCLUSIONS: At the end of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, only a small fraction of the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Control of COVID-19 requires the ability to detect asymptomatic and mild infections that would otherwise remain undetected through existing surveillance systems. This is important to determine the true number of infections within the general population which, in turn, can help to understand transmission, inform control measures and provide a denominator for the estimation of severity measures such as the proportion of infected people who have been hospitalised and/or have died.

Preoperative intravenous iron therapy and survival after colorectal cancer surgery: long-term results from the IVICA randomised controlled trial.

AIM: Preoperative iron is frequently used for the correction of anaemia in colorectal cancer surgery. However, enteral iron intake may promote tumour growth and progression which could influence cancer recurrence and patient survival. We explore the long-term outcomes of patients receiving either oral or intravenous iron replacement therapy as part of a previous randomized controlled trial. METHODS: The IVICA trial randomized anaemic colorectal cancer patients to receive either oral (OI, control) or intravenous (IVI, treatment) iron prior to their elective operation. Follow-up analysis of all patients recruited to this multicentre trial who underwent surgical resection with curative intent was performed. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare groups. A pooled group multivariable analysis comparing patients who achieved resolution of anaemia preoperatively to those who did not was also undertaken. RESULTS: In all, 110 of the 116 patients previously enrolled were eligible for analysis (OI n = 56, IVI n = 54). Median overall follow-up duration was 61 months (interquartile range 46-67). No significant difference in 5-year overall survival (hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% CI 0.65-2.28, P = 0.522) or disease-free survival (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.61-1.92, P = 0.79) was observed between OI and IVI. A pooled analysis of treatment groups found that preoperative resolution of anaemia led to improved 5-year overall survival on multivariable analysis (HR 3.38, 95% CI 1.07-11.56, P = 0.044). CONCLUSION: We recommend IVI for the preoperative correction of anaemia. Route of iron therapy did not significantly influence survival. Preoperative anaemia correction may lead to an overall survival advantage following elective colorectal cancer surgery.

The impact of pre-operative intravenous iron on quality of life after colorectal cancer surgery: outcomes from the intravenous iron in colorectal cancer-associated anaemia (IVICA) trial.

Anaemia is associated with a reduction in quality of life, and is common in patients with colorectal cancer . We recently reported the findings of the intravenous iron in colorectal cancer-associated anaemia (IVICA) trial comparing haemoglobin levels and transfusion requirements following intravenous or oral iron replacement in anaemic colorectal cancer patients undergoing elective surgery. In this follow-up study, we compared the efficacy of intravenous and oral iron at improving quality of life in this patient group. We conducted a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial. Anaemic colorectal cancer patients were randomly allocated at least two weeks pre-operatively, to receive either oral (ferrous sulphate) or intravenous (ferric carboxymaltose) iron. We assessed haemoglobin and quality of life scores at recruitment, immediately before surgery and at outpatient review approximately three months postoperatively, using the Short Form 36, EuroQoL 5-dimension 5-level and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Anaemia questionnaires. We recruited 116 anaemic patients across seven UK centres (oral iron n = 61 (53%), and intravenous iron n = 55 (47%)). Eleven quality of life components increased by a clinically significant margin in the intravenous iron group between recruitment and surgery compared with one component for oral iron. Median (IQR [range]) visual analogue scores were significantly higher with intravenous iron at a three month outpatient review (oral iron 70, (60-85 [20-95]); intravenous iron 90 (80-90 [50-100]), p = 0.001). The Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Anaemia score comprises of subscales related to cancer, fatigue and non-fatigue items relevant to anaemia. Median outpatient scores were higher, and hence favourable, for intravenous iron on the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Anaemia subscale (oral iron 66 (55-72 [23-80]); intravenous iron 71 (66-77 [46-80]); p = 0.002), Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Anaemia trial outcome index (oral iron 108 (90-123 [35-135]); intravenous iron 121 (113-124 [81-135]); p = 0.003) and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Anaemia total score (oral iron 151 (132-170 [69-183]); intravenous iron 168 (160-174 [125-186]); p = 0.005). These findings indicate that intravenous iron is more efficacious at improving quality of life scores than oral iron in anaemic colorectal cancer patients.

Building protection- and building shielding-factors for environmental exposure to radionuclides and monoenergetic photon emissions.

We describe a simplified method for calculating both building protection- and shielding-factors for generic one- and two-story housing-unit models that are source-term dependent. Typically, radionuclide-independent factors are applied generically to external dose coefficients to account for the radiation shielding effects of indoor residences. In reality, the shielding effectiveness of each housing-unit would change over time as the radionuclide mixture and gamma-ray energy spectrum change due to physical effects such as deposition, radioactive decay, weathering effects, and decontamination efforts. Thus, it is necessary to develop factors designed for multiple photon energy spectrums to generate a more realistic estimate of the shielding effectiveness of a particular building. It is impractical to develop factors specific to a spectrum of photons emitted by each radionuclide of interest. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulations have been performed for sixteen monoenergetic photon energies from 0.10 to 3.0 MeV to characterize the 3D radiation fluence through each housing-unit produced by two idealized, yet realistic, environmental exposure scenarios. Results of these simulations were then used to develop fitted logarithmic functions (extrapolated to 0.0 MeV) to correlate an estimated factor to any monoenergetic photon energy up to 3.0 MeV. To verify these functions, another series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed for a select set of radionuclides to develop radionuclide-specific building protection- and shielding-factors. Good agreement is achieved between factors estimated using the presented functions and those calculated directly using Monte Carlo methods. Factors predicted by these functions are found to be in general agreement with other study results reported on similar structures which applied various computational methods and source-terms. This study only focuses on generic one- and two-story homes to provide a practical application that can contribute to improve the preparedness for and the response to a nuclear or radiological emergency.

Serum amylase and C-reactive protein in risk stratification of pancreas-specific complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreas-specific complications (PSCs), comprising postoperative pancreatic fistula, haemorrhage and intra-abdominal collections, are drivers of morbidity and mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). A serum amylase concentration of 130 units/l or more on postoperative day (POD) 0 has been shown to be an objective surrogate of pancreatic texture, a determinant of PSCs. This study evaluated serial measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP) to refine PSC risk stratification. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing PD between 2008 and 2014, with vascular resection if required and without preoperative chemoradiotherapy, had serum investigations from the day before operation until discharge. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify a threshold value of serum CRP with clinically relevant PSCs for up to 30 days after discharge as outcome measure. RESULTS: Of 230 patients, 95 (41·3 per cent) experienced a clinically relevant PSC. A serum CRP level of 180 mg/l or higher on POD 2 was associated with PSCs, prolonged critical care stay and relaparotomy (all P < 0·050). Patients with a serum amylase concentration of 130 units/l or more on POD 0 who developed a serum CRP level of at least 180 mg/l on POD 2 had a higher incidence of morbidity. Patients were stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups using these markers. The low-risk category was associated with a negative predictive value of 86·5 per cent for development of clinically relevant PSCs. There were no deaths among 52 patients in the low-risk group, but seven deaths among 79 (9 per cent) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSION: A serum amylase level below 130 units/l on POD 0 combined with a serum CRP level under 180 mg/l on POD 2 constitutes a low-risk profile following PD, and may help identify patients suitable for early discharge.

Prospective cohort study comparing transient EUS guided elastography to EUS-FNA for the diagnosis of solid pancreatic mass lesions.

BACKGROUND: Semiquantitative EUS-elastography has been introduced to distinguish between malignant and benign pancreatic lesions. This study investigated whether semiquantitative EUS-guided transient real time elastography increases the diagnostic accuracy for solid pancreatic lesions compared to EUS-FNA. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This single centre prospective cohort study included all patients with solitary pancreatic lesions on EUS during one year. Patients underwent EUS-FNA and semiquantitative EUS-elastography during the same session. EUS and elastography results were compared with final diagnosis which was made on the basis of tissue samples and long-term outcome. RESULTS: 91 patients were recruited of which 68 had pancreatic malignancy, 17 showed benign disease and 6 had cystic lesions and were excluded from further analysis. Strain ratios from malignant lesions were significantly higher (24.00; 8.01-43.94 95% CI vs 44.00; 32.42-55.00 95% CI) and ROC analysis indicated optimal cut-off of 24.82 with resulting sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 77%, 65% and 73% respectively. B-mode EUS and EUS-FNA had an accuracy for the correct diagnosis of malignant lesions of 87% and 85%. When lowering the cut-off strain ratio for elastography to 10 the sensitivity rose to 96% with specificity of 43% and accuracy of 84%, resulting in the least accurate EUS-based method. This was confirmed by pairwise comparison. CONCLUSION: Semiquantitative EUS-elastography does not add substantial value to the EUS-based assessment of solid pancreatic lesions when compared to B-mode imaging.

Contaminant deposition building shielding factors for US residential structures.

This paper presents validated building shielding factors designed for contemporary US housing-stock under an idealized, yet realistic, exposure scenario from contaminant deposition on the roof and surrounding surfaces. The building shielding factors are intended for use in emergency planning and level three probabilistic risk assessments for a variety of postulated radiological events in which a realistic assessment is necessary to better understand the potential risks for accident mitigation and emergency response planning. Factors are calculated from detailed computational housing-units models using the general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle computational code, MCNP5, and are benchmarked from a series of narrow- and broad-beam measurements analyzing the shielding effectiveness of ten common general-purpose construction materials and ten shielding models representing the primary weather barriers (walls and roofs) of likely US housing-stock. Each model was designed to scale based on common residential construction practices and include, to the extent practical, all structurally significant components important for shielding against ionizing radiation. Calculations were performed for floor-specific locations from contaminant deposition on the roof and surrounding ground as well as for computing a weighted-average representative building shielding factor for single- and multi-story detached homes, both with and without basement as well for single-wide manufactured housing-unit.

Recent trends in type-specific HPV infection rates in the United States.

SUMMARY This study examined recent trends in type-specific HPV infection rates in women referred for HPV typing as part of cervical cancer screening in the United States. HPV analyses were performed from March 2004 to March 2011. Women were aged 21-65 years at testing. The 18 most prevalent HPV types were analysed. Type-specific HPV infection rates were estimated in 3-month blocks. Lowess smoothing was used to examine time trends in infection rates for each HPV type, both combined, and separated by age group (younger women 21-30 years, older women 31-64 years). A total of 220914 women were included in the final analysis. The number of HPV tests performed on the younger age group increased, with the number of HPV infections and multiple type HPV infections decreasing. When separated by HPV type-specific analysis, the majority of HPV infection rates decreased; however, HPV types 61 and 83 increased. When analysing the older age group, there was a marked increase of the number of HPV tests. Overall, the rates of any HPV infection, as well as multiple type infections, were lower compared to the younger age group. The change in type-specific HPV rates in the older age group was minimal, with many rates remaining the same. In this population of women, overall rates of HPV infection decreased, while the number of HPV tests increased. Younger women had a more marked decrease in HPV infection rates, while for older women type-specific HPV infection rates appear consistent.

The epidemiology of and outcome from pancreatoduodenal trauma in the UK, 1989-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatoduodenal (PD) injury is an uncommon but serious complication of blunt and penetrating trauma, associated with high mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, mechanisms of injury, initial operation rates and outcome of patients who sustained PD trauma in the UK from a large trauma registry, over the period 1989-2013. METHODS: The Trauma Audit and Research Network database was searched for details of any patient with blunt or penetrating trauma to the pancreas, duodenum or both. RESULTS: Of 356,534 trauma cases, 1,155 (0.32%) sustained PD trauma. The median patient age was 27 years for blunt trauma and 27.5 years for penetrating trauma. The male-to-female ratio was 2.5:1. Blunt trauma was the most common type of injury seen, with a ratio of blunt-to-penetrating PD injury ratio of 3.6:1. Road traffic collision was the most common mechanism of injury, accounting for 673 cases (58.3%). The median injury severity score (ISS) was 25 (IQR: 14-35) for blunt trauma and 14 (IQR: 9-18) for penetrating trauma. The mortality rate for blunt PD trauma was 17.6%; it was 12.2% for penetrating PD trauma. Variables predicting mortality after pancreatic trauma were increasing age, ISS, haemodynamic compromise and not having undergone an operation. CONCLUSIONS: Isolated pancreatic injuries are uncommon; most coexist with other injuries. In the UK, a high proportion of cases are due to blunt trauma, which differs from US and South African series. Mortality is high in the UK but comparison with other surgical series is difficult because of selection bias in their datasets.

Cloud immersion building shielding factors for US residential structures.

This paper presents validated building shielding factors designed for contemporary US housing-stock under an idealized, yet realistic, exposure scenario within a semi-infinite cloud of radioactive material. The building shielding factors are intended for use in emergency planning and level three probabilistic risk assessments for a variety of postulated radiological events in which a realistic assessment is necessary to better understand the potential risks for accident mitigation and emergency response planning. Factors are calculated from detailed computational housing-units models using the general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle computational code, MCNP5, and are benchmarked from a series of narrow- and broad-beam measurements analyzing the shielding effectiveness of ten common general-purpose construction materials and ten shielding models representing the primary weather barriers (walls and roofs) of likely US housing-stock. Each model was designed to scale based on common residential construction practices and include, to the extent practical, all structurally significant components important for shielding against ionizing radiation. Calculations were performed for floor-specific locations as well as for computing a weighted-average representative building shielding factor for single- and multi-story detached homes, both with and without basement, as well for single-wide manufactured housing-units.

Experimental shielding evaluation of the radiation protection provided by the structurally significant components of residential structures.

The human health and environmental effects following a postulated accidental release of radioactive material to the environment have been a public and regulatory concern since the early development of nuclear technology. These postulated releases have been researched extensively to better understand the potential risks for accident mitigation and emergency planning purposes. The objective of this investigation is to provide an updated technical basis for contemporary building shielding factors for the US housing stock. Building shielding factors quantify the protection from ionising radiation provided by a certain building type. Much of the current data used to determine the quality of shielding around nuclear facilities and urban environments is based on simplistic point-kernel calculations for 1950s era suburbia and is no longer applicable to the densely populated urban environments realised today. To analyse a building's radiation shielding properties, the ideal approach would be to subject a variety of building types to various radioactive sources and measure the radiation levels in and around the building. While this is not entirely practicable, this research analyses the shielding effectiveness of ten structurally significant US housing-stock models (walls and roofs) important for shielding against ionising radiation. The experimental data are used to benchmark computational models to calculate the shielding effectiveness of various building configurations under investigation from two types of realistic environmental source terms. Various combinations of these ten shielding models can be used to develop full-scale computational housing-unit models for building shielding factor calculations representing 69.6 million housing units (61.3%) in the United States. Results produced in this investigation provide a comparison between theory and experiment behind building shielding factor methodology.

A cost-effective protocol for screening patients for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

The incidence of hospital-acquired infection with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is rising worldwide. Rapid identification of MRSA carriers is an important step in reducing the risk of transmission to other patients. Molecular methods are increasingly popular but are technically demanding and expensive. This study assesses the modification of one of the commercially available latex agglutination tests (Mastalex-MRSA) for the identification of penicillin-binding protein 2' on known strains of MRSA as well as other organisms identified from chromogenic agar plates. A total of 3050 patients with unknown MRSA status were processed through the routine laboratory during the investigation period and 73 of these were presumptive positive following overnight incubation. Of 70 patients who could be evaluated, 32 (43.8%) specimens would be suitable for use with the kit directly from overnight incubation on chromogenic agar, and the other 38 (52.1%) would be suitable following four hours' incubation on blood agar. The cost of one positive MRSA test with the inclusion of this test is Euro 15.15 compared with published reports of Euro 35.00 for a commercial polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. This protocol would allow the reporting of presumptive positive MRSA results approximately 24 hours earlier than currently achieved.

Epidemiology and management of a bovine brucellosis cluster in Northern Ireland.

An epidemiological investigation was undertaken of 41 bovine brucellosis outbreaks that occurred within a 10-month period, in a region where eradication measures appeared to be succeeding. The primary outbreak comprised three herds with significant within-herd spread and a high probability of multiple abortions. Direct contact between cattle at pasture was the most likely means of between-herd transmission for most (71%) outbreaks, with an attack rate of 28.1% in herds immediately neighbouring the primary outbreak herds and 11.3% in the next concentric ring of farms. Resolution of the incident was attributed to a rapid response by the veterinary authorities, detailed epidemiological investigations, repeated, prolonged testing of contact herds and employment of parallel testing.

Protocol-driven trauma resuscitation: survey of UK practice.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of protocol-driven trauma resuscitation strategies in UK emergency departments. METHODS: Postal/internet questionnaire survey of emergency departments to evaluate the existence of guidelines or protocols to direct resuscitation, blood component treatment, second line imaging of patients who had major trauma and the existence of a trauma team/trauma call system. RESULTS: 243 departments were identified and contacted, 183 responded. Five replies were excluded. Of the remaining 178 departments, 139 (78.1%) had a trauma team or trauma call system, but only 49 (27.5%) had a guideline or protocol for resuscitation. 92 (51.7%) had guidelines or protocols for blood component treatment in trauma, and 88 (49.4%) had guidelines or protocols for the use of second line imaging in trauma. The use of protocols and guidelines did not correlate with emergency department size, as measured by volume of activity. CONCLUSIONS: The utilisation of trauma resuscitation protocols and guidelines in British emergency departments is limited. Given the clear benefits of these strategies, consideration should be given to greater integration of such algorithms into practice.