The Impact of Molecular Subtyping on Pathological Staging of Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcomes following surgical resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains poor, with only 20% of patients surviving 5 years after pancreatectomy. Patient selection for surgery remains suboptimal largely due to the absence of consideration of aggressive tumor biology. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate traditional staging criteria for PDAC in the setting of molecular subtypes. METHODS: Clinicopathological data were obtained for 5 independent cohorts of consecutive unselected patients, totaling n = 1298, including n = 442 that underwent molecular subtyping. The main outcome measure was disease-specific survival following surgical resection for PDAC stratified according to the American Joint Commission for Cancer (TNM) staging criteria, margin status, and molecular subtype. RESULTS: TNM staging criteria and margin status confers prognostic value only in tumors with classical pancreatic subtype. Patients with tumors that are of squamous subtype, have a poor outcome irrespective of favorable traditional pathological staging [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-2.28, P = 0.032]. Margin status has no impact on survival in the squamous subtype (16.0 vs 12.1 months, P = 0.374). There were no differences in molecular subtype or gene expression of tumors with positive resection margin status. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive tumor biology as measured by molecular subtype predicts poor outcome following pancreatectomy for PDAC and should be utilized to inform patient selection for surgery.

Immediate surgery compared with short-course neoadjuvant gemcitabine plus capecitabine, FOLFIRINOX, or chemoradiotherapy in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer (ESPAC5): a four-arm, multicentre, randomised, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with borderline resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma have relatively low resection rates and poor survival despite the use of adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of our study was to establish the feasibility and efficacy of three different types of short-course neoadjuvant therapy compared with immediate surgery. METHODS: ESPAC5 (formerly known as ESPAC-5f) was a multicentre, open label, randomised controlled trial done in 16 pancreatic centres in two countries (UK and Germany). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, with a WHO performance status of 0 or 1, biopsy proven pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in the pancreatic head, and were staged as having a borderline resectable tumour by contrast-enhanced CT criteria following central review. Participants were randomly assigned by means of minimisation to one of four groups: immediate surgery; neoadjuvant gemcitabine and capecitabine (gemcitabine 1000 mg/m2 on days 1, 8, and 15, and oral capecitabine 830 mg/m2 twice a day on days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle for two cycles); neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, irinotecan 180 mg/m2, folinic acid given according to local practice, and fluorouracil 400 mg/m2 bolus injection on days 1 and 15 followed by 2400 mg/m2 46 h intravenous infusion given on days 1 and 15, repeated every 2 weeks for four cycles); or neoadjuvant capecitabine-based chemoradiation (total dose 50·4 Gy in 28 daily fractions over 5·5 weeks [1·8 Gy per fraction, Monday to Friday] with capecitabine 830 mg/m2 twice daily [Monday to Friday] throughout radiotherapy). Patients underwent restaging contrast-enhanced CT at 4-6 weeks after neoadjuvant therapy and underwent surgical exploration if the tumour was still at least borderline resectable. All patients who had their tumour resected received adjuvant therapy at the oncologist's discretion. Primary endpoints were recruitment rate and resection rate. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, 89500674, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Sept 3, 2014, and Dec 20, 2018, from 478 patients screened, 90 were randomly assigned to a group (33 to immediate surgery, 20 to gemcitabine plus capecitabine, 20 to FOLFIRINOX, and 17 to capecitabine-based chemoradiation); four patients were excluded from the intention-to-treat analysis (one in the capecitabine-based chemoradiotherapy withdrew consent before starting therapy and three [two in the immediate surgery group and one in the gemcitabine plus capecitabine group] were found to be ineligible after randomisation). 44 (80%) of 55 patients completed neoadjuvant therapy. The recruitment rate was 25·92 patients per year from 16 sites; 21 (68%) of 31 patients in the immediate surgery and 30 (55%) of 55 patients in the combined neoadjuvant therapy groups underwent resection (p=0·33). R0 resection was achieved in three (14%) of 21 patients in the immediate surgery group and seven (23%) of 30 in the neoadjuvant therapy groups combined (p=0·49). Surgical complications were observed in 29 (43%) of 68 patients who underwent surgery; no patients died within 30 days. 46 (84%) of 55 patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy were available for restaging. Six (13%) of 46 had a partial response. Median follow-up time was 12·2 months (95% CI 12·0-12·4). 1-year overall survival was 39% (95% CI 24-61) for immediate surgery, 78% (60-100) for gemcitabine plus capecitabine, 84% (70-100) for FOLFIRINOX, and 60% (37-97) for capecitabine-based chemoradiotherapy (p=0·0028). 1-year disease-free survival from surgery was 33% (95% CI 19-58) for immediate surgery and 59% (46-74) for the combined neoadjuvant therapies (hazard ratio 0·53 [95% CI 0·28-0·98], p=0·016). Three patients reported local disease recurrence (two in the immediate surgery group and one in the FOLFIRINOX group). 78 (91%) patients were included in the safety set and assessed for toxicity events. 19 (24%) of 78 patients reported a grade 3 or worse adverse event (two [7%] of 28 patients in the immediate surgery group and 17 [34%] of 50 patients in the neoadjuvant therapy groups combined), the most common of which were neutropenia, infection, and hyperglycaemia. INTERPRETATION: Recruitment was challenging. There was no significant difference in resection rates between patients who underwent immediate surgery and those who underwent neoadjuvant therapy. Short-course (8 week) neoadjuvant therapy had a significant survival benefit compared with immediate surgery. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with either gemcitabine plus capecitabine or FOLFIRINOX had the best survival compared with immediate surgery. These findings support the use of short-course neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Perioperative interventions to reduce pancreatic fistula following pancreatoduodenectomy: meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on interventions to reduce postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) are conflicting. The aim of this study was to assimilate data from RCTs. METHODS: MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched systematically for RCTs evaluating interventions to reduce all grades of POPF or clinically relevant (CR) POPF after PD. Meta-analysis was undertaken for interventions investigated in multiple studies. A post hoc analysis of negative RCTs assessed whether these had appropriate statistical power. RESULTS: Among 22 interventions (7512 patients, 55 studies), 12 were assessed by multiple studies, and subjected to meta-analysis. Of these, external pancreatic duct drainage was the only intervention associated with reduced rates of both CR-POPF (odds ratio (OR) 0.40, 95 per cent c.i. 0.20 to 0.80) and all-POPF (OR 0.42, 0.25 to 0.70). Ulinastatin was associated with reduced rates of CR-POPF (OR 0.24, 0.06 to 0.93). Invagination (versus duct-to-mucosa) pancreatojejunostomy was associated with reduced rates of all-POPF (OR 0.60, 0.40 to 0.90). Most negative RCTs were found to be underpowered, with post hoc power calculations indicating that interventions would need to reduce the POPF rate to 1 per cent or less in order to achieve 80 per cent power in 16 of 34 (all-POPF) and 19 of 25 (CR-POPF) studies respectively. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis supports a role for several interventions to reduce POPF after PD. RCTs in this field were often relatively small and underpowered, especially those evaluating CR-POPF.

Can trainees safely perform pancreatoenteric anastomosis? A systematic review, meta-analysis, and risk-adjusted analysis of postoperative pancreatic fistula.

BACKGROUND: The complexity of pancreaticoduodenectomy and fear of morbidity, particularly postoperative pancreatic fistula, can be a barrier to surgical trainees gaining operative experience. This meta-analysis sought to compare the postoperative pancreatic fistula rate after pancreatoenteric anastomosis by trainees or established surgeons. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, with differences in postoperative pancreatic fistula rates after pancreatoenteric anastomosis between trainee-led versus consultant/attending surgeons pooled using meta-analysis. Variation in rates of postoperative pancreatic fistula was further explored using risk-adjusted outcomes using published risk scores and cumulative sum control chart analysis in a retrospective cohort. RESULTS: Across 14 cohorts included in the meta-analysis, trainees tended toward a lower but nonsignificant rate of all postoperative pancreatic fistula (odds ratio: 0.77, P = .45) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (odds ratio: 0.69, P = .37). However, there was evidence of case selection, with trainees being less likely to operate on patients with a pancreatic duct width <3 mm (odds ratio: 0.45, P = .05). Similarly, analysis of a retrospective cohort (N = 756 cases) found patients operated by trainees to have significantly lower predicted all postoperative pancreatic fistula (median: 20 vs 26%, P < .001) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (7 vs 9%, P = .020) rates than consultant/attending surgeons, based on preoperative risk scores. After adjusting for this on multivariable analysis, the risks of all postoperative pancreatic fistula (odds ratio: 1.18, P = .604) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (odds ratio: 0.85, P = .693) remained similar after pancreatoenteric anastomosis by trainees or consultant/attending surgeons. CONCLUSION: Pancreatoenteric anastomosis, when performed by trainees, is associated with acceptable outcomes. There is evidence of case selection among patients undergoing surgery by trainees; hence, risk adjustment provides a critical tool for the objective evaluation of performance.

The Influence of Intraoperative Blood Loss on Fistula Development Following Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of intraoperative estimated blood loss (EBL) on development of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). BACKGROUND: Minimizing EBL has been shown to decrease transfusions and provide better perioperative outcomes in PD. EBL is also felt to be influential on CR-POPF development. METHODS: This study consists of 5534 PDs from a 17-institution collaborative (2003-2018). EBL was progressively categorized (≤150mL; 151-400mL; 401-1,000 mL; > 1,000 mL). Impact of additive EBL was assessed using 20 3- factor fistula risk score (FRS) scenarios reflective of endogenous CR-POPF risk. RESULTS: CR-POPF developed in 13.6% of patients (N = 753) and median EBL was 400 mL (interquartile range 250-600 mL). CR-POPF and Grade C POPF were associated with elevated EBL (median 350 vs 400 mL, P = 0.002; 372 vs 500 mL, P < 0.001, respectively). Progressive EBL cohorts displayed incremental CR-POPF rates (8.5%, 13.4%, 15.2%, 16.9%; P < 0.001). EBL >400mL was associated with increased CR-POPF occurrence in 13/20 endogenous risk scenarios. Moreover, 8 of 10 scenarios predicated on a soft gland demonstrated increased CR-POPF incidence. Hypothetical projections demonstrate significant reductions in CR-POPF can be obtained with 1-, 2-, and 3-point decreases in FRS points attributed to EBL risk (12.2%, 17.4%, and 20.0%; P < 0.001). This is especially pronounced in high-risk (FRS7-10) patients, who demonstrate up to a 31% reduction (P < 0.001). Surgeons in the lowest-quartile of median EBL demonstrated CR-POPF rates less than half those in the upper-quartile (7.9% vs 18.8%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: EBL independently contributes significant biological risk to CR-POPF. Substantial reductions in CR-POPF occurrence are projected and obtainable by minimizing EBL. Decreased individual surgeon EBL is associated with improvements in CR-POPF.

The Fistula Risk Score Catalog: Toward Precision Medicine for Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to present a full spectrum of individual patient presentations of pancreatic fistula risk, and to define the utility of mitigation strategies amongst some of the most prevalent, and vulnerable scenarios surgeons encounter. BACKGROUND: The FRS has been utilized to identify technical strategies associated with reduced CR-POPF incidence across various risk strata. However, risk-stratification using the FRS has never been investigated with greater granularity. By deriving all possible combinations of FRS elements, individualized risk assessment could be utilized for precision medicine purposes. METHODS: FRS profiles and outcomes of 5533 PDs were accrued from 17 international institutions (2003-2019). The FRS was used to derive 80 unique combinations of patient "scenarios." Risk-matched analyses were conducted using a Bonferroni adjustment to identify scenarios with increased vulnerability for CR-POPF occurrence. Subsequently, these scenarios were analyzed using multivariable regression to explore optimal mitigation approaches. RESULTS: The overall CR-POPF rate was 13.6%. All 80 possible scenarios were encountered, with the most frequent being scenario #1 (8.1%) - the only negligible-risk scenario (CR-POPF rate = 0.7%). The moderate-risk zone had the most scenarios (50), patients (N = 3246), CR-POPFs (65.2%), and greatest non-zero discrepancy in CR-POPF rates between scenarios (18-fold). In the risk-matched analysis, 2 scenarios (#59 and 60) displayed increased vulnerability for CR-POPF relative to the moderate-risk zone (both P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed factors associated with CR-POPF in these scenarios: pancreaticogastrostomy reconstruction [odds ratio (OR) 4.67], omission of drain placement (OR 5.51), and prophylactic octreotide (OR 3.09). When comparing the utilization of best practice strategies to patients who did not have these conjointly utilized, there was a significant decrease in CR-POPF (10.7% vs 35.5%, P < 0.001; OR 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.12-0.33). CONCLUSION: Through this data, a comprehensive fistula risk catalog has been created and the most clinically-impactful scenarios have been discerned. Focusing on individual scenarios provides a practical way to approach precision medicine, allowing for more directed and efficient management of CR-POPF.

External validation of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction scores in pancreatoduodenectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk scores claim to predict the probability of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy. It is unclear which scores have undergone external validation and are the most accurate. The aim of this study was to identify risk scores for POPF, and assess the clinical validity of these scores. METHODS: Areas under receiving operator characteristic curve (AUROCs) were extracted from studies that performed external validation of POPF risk scores. These were pooled for each risk score, using intercept-only random-effects meta-regression models. RESULTS: Systematic review identified 34 risk scores, of which six had been subjected to external validation, and so included in the meta-analysis, (Tokyo (N=2 validation studies), Birmingham (N=5), FRS (N=19), a-FRS (N=12), m-FRS (N=3) and ua-FRS (N=3) scores). Overall predictive accuracies were similar for all six scores, with pooled AUROCs of 0.61, 0.70, 0.71, 0.70, 0.70 and 0.72, respectively. Considerably heterogeneity was observed, with I2 statistics ranging from 52.1-88.6%. CONCLUSION: Most risk scores lack external validation; where this was performed, risk scores were found to have limited predictive accuracy. . Consensus is needed for which score to use in clinical practice. Due to the limited predictive accuracy, future studies to derive a more accurate risk score are warranted.

The effect of high intraoperative blood loss on pancreatic fistula development after pancreatoduodenectomy: An international, multi-institutional propensity score matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: The association between intraoperative estimated blood loss and outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy has, thus far, been rarely explored. METHODS: In total, 7,706 pancreatoduodenectomies performed at 18 international institutions composing the Pancreas Fistula Study Group were examined (2003-2020). High estimated blood loss (>700 mL) was defined as twice the median. Propensity score matching (1:1 exact-match) was employed to adjust for variables associated with high estimated blood loss and clinically relevant pancreatic fistula occurrence. The study was powered to detect a 33% clinically relevant pancreatic fistula increase in the high estimated blood loss group, with α = 0.05 and ß = 0.2. RESULTS: The propensity score model included 966 patients with high estimated blood loss and 966 patients with lower estimated blood loss; all covariate imbalantces were solved. Patients with high estimated blood loss patients experienced higher clinically relevant pancreatic fistula rates (19.4 vs 12.6%, odds ratio 1.66; P < .001), as well as higher severe complication rates (27.8 vs 15.6%), transfusions (50.1 vs 14.3%), reoperations (9.2 vs 4.0%), intensive care unit transfers (9.9 vs 4.8%) and 90-day mortality (4.7 vs 2.0%, all P < .001). High estimated blood loss was an independent predictor for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (odds ratio 1.78, 95% confidence interval 1.37-2.32), as were prophylactic Octreotide administration (odds ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.46-2.61) and soft pancreatic texture (odds ratio 5.32, 95% confidence interval 3.74-5.57; all P < .001). Moreover, a second model including 1,126 pancreatoduodenectomies was derived including vascular resections as additional confounder (14.0% vascular resections performed in each group). On multivariable regression, high estimated blood loss was confirmed an independent predictor for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula reduction (odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.32-2.44; P < .001), whereas vascular resection was not (odds ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.34-1.88; P = .156). CONCLUSION: This study better establishes the relationship between estimated blood loss and outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy. Despite inherent contributions to blood loss, its minimization is an actionable opportunity for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula reduction and performance optimization in pancreatoduodenectomy. Accordingly, practical insights are offered to achieve this goal.

Surgeon experience contributes to improved outcomes in pancreatoduodenectomies at high risk for fistula development.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatoduodenectomies at high risk for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula are uncommon, yet intimidating, situations. In such scenarios, the impact of individual surgeon experience on outcomes is poorly understood. METHODS: The fistula risk score was applied to identify high-risk patients (fistula risk score 7-10) from 7,706 pancreatoduodenectomies performed at 18 international institutions (2003-2020). For each case, surgeon pancreatoduodenectomy career volume and years of practice were linked to intraoperative fistula mitigation strategy adoption and outcomes. Consequently, best operative approaches for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula prevention and best performer profiles were identified through multivariable analysis models. RESULTS: Eight hundred and thirty high-risk pancreatoduodenectomies, performed by 64 surgeons, displayed an overall clinically relevant pancreatic fistula rate of 33.7%. Clinically relevant pancreatic fistula rates decreased with escalating surgeon career pancreatoduodenectomy (-49.7%) and career length (-41.2%; both P < .001), as did transfusion and reoperation rates, postoperative morbidity index, and duration of stay. Great experience (≥400 pancreatoduodenectomies performed or ≥21-year-long career) was a significant predictor of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula prevention (odds ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.76) and was more often associated with pancreatojejunostomy reconstruction and prophylactic octreotide omission, which were both independently associated with clinically relevant pancreatic fistula reduction. A risk-adjusted performance analysis also correlated with experience. Moreover, minimizing blood loss (≤400 mL) significantly contributed to clinically relevant pancreatic fistula prevention (odds ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.22-0.74). CONCLUSION: Surgeon experience is a key contributor to achieve better outcomes after high-risk pancreatoduodenectomy. Surgeons can improve their performance in these challenging situations by employing pancreatojejunostomy reconstruction, omitting prophylactic octreotide, and minimizing blood loss.

Precision Oncology in Surgery: Patient Selection for Operable Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to define preoperative clinical and molecular characteristics that would allow better patient selection for operative resection. BACKGROUND: Although we use molecular selection methods for systemic targeted therapies, these principles are not applied to surgical oncology. Improving patient selection is of vital importance for the operative treatment of pancreatic cancer (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma). Although surgery is the only chance of long-term survival, 80% still succumb to the disease and approximately 30% die within 1 year, often sooner than those that have unresected local disease. METHOD: In 3 independent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cohorts (total participants = 1184) the relationship between aberrant expression of prometastatic proteins S100A2 and S100A4 and survival was assessed. A preoperative nomogram based on clinical variables available before surgery and expression of these proteins was constructed and compared to traditional measures, and a postoperative nomogram. RESULTS: High expression of either S100A2 or S100A4 was independent poor prognostic factors in a training cohort of 518 participants. These results were validated in 2 independent patient cohorts (Glasgow, n = 198; Germany, n = 468). Aberrant biomarker expression stratified the cohorts into 3 distinct prognostic groups. A preoperative nomogram incorporating S100A2 and S100A4 expression predicted survival and nomograms derived using postoperative clinicopathological variables. CONCLUSIONS: Of those patients with a poor preoperative nomogram score, approximately 50% of patients died within a year of resection. Nomograms have the potential to improve selection for surgery and neoadjuvant therapy, avoiding surgery in aggressive disease, and justifying more extensive resections in biologically favorable disease.

Feasibility and clinical utility of endoscopic ultrasound guided biopsy of pancreatic cancer for next-generation molecular profiling.

Next-generation sequencing is enabling molecularly guided therapy for many cancer types, yet failure rates remain relatively high in pancreatic cancer (PC). The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of genomic profiling using endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) biopsy samples to facilitate personalised therapy for PC. Ninty-five patients underwent additional research biopsies at the time of diagnostic EUS. Diagnostic formalin-fixed (FFPE) and fresh frozen EUS samples underwent DNA extraction, quantification and targeted gene sequencing. Whole genome (WGS) and RNA sequencing was performed as proof of concept. Only 2 patients (2%) with a diagnosis of PC had insufficient material for targeted sequencing in both FFPE and frozen specimens. Targeted panel sequencing (n=54) revealed mutations in PC genes (KRAS, GNAS, TP53, CDKN2A, SMAD4) in patients with histological evidence of PC, including potentially actionable mutations (BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, BRAF). WGS (n=5) of EUS samples revealed mutational signatures that are potential biomarkers of therapeutic responsiveness. RNA sequencing (n=35) segregated patients into clinically relevant molecular subtypes based on transcriptome. Integrated multi-omic analysis of PC using standard EUS guided biopsies offers clinical utility to guide personalized therapy and study the molecular pathology in all patients with PC.

Risk Factors and Mitigation Strategies for Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy: Analysis of 2026 Resections From the International, Multi-institutional Distal Pancreatectomy Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To identify a clinical fistula risk score following distal pancreatectomy. BACKGROUND: Clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following distal pancreatectomy (DP) is a dominant contributor to procedural morbidity, yet risk factors attributable to CR-POPF and effective practices to reduce its occurrence remain elusive. METHODS: This multinational, retrospective study of 2026 DPs involved 52 surgeons at 10 institutions (2001-2016). CR-POPFs were defined by 2016 International Study Group criteria, and risk models generated using stepwise logistic regression analysis were evaluated by c-statistic. Mitigation strategies were assessed by regression modeling while controlling for identified risk factors and treating institution. RESULTS: CR-POPF occurred following 306 (15.1%) DPs. Risk factors independently associated with CR-POPF included: age (<60 yrs: OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.82), obesity (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19-2.12), hypoalbuminenia (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.06-2.51), the absence of epidural anesthesia (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.17-2.16), neuroendocrine or nonmalignant pathology (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.18-2.06), concomitant splenectomy (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.25-3.17), and vascular resection (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.25-3.17). After adjusting for inherent risk between cases by multivariable regression, the following were not independently associated with CR-POPF: method of transection, suture ligation of the pancreatic duct, staple size, the use of staple line reinforcement, tissue patches, biologic sealants, or prophylactic octreotide. Intraoperative drainage was associated with a greater fistula rate (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.51-3.78) but reduced fistula severity (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: From this large analysis of pancreatic fistula following DP, CR-POPF occurrence cannot be reliably predicted. Opportunities for developing a risk score model are limited for performing risk-adjusted analyses of mitigation strategies and surgeon performance.

Identification of an Optimal Cut-off for Drain Fluid Amylase on Postoperative Day 1 for Predicting Clinically Relevant Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy: A Multi-institutional Analysis and External Validation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between drain fluid amylase value on the first postoperative day (DFA1) and clinically relevant fistula (CR-POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP), and to identify the cut-off of DFA1 that optimizes CR-POPF prediction. BACKGROUND: DFA1 is a well-recognized predictor of CR-POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy, but its role in DP is largely unexplored. METHODS: DFA1 levels were correlated with CR-POPF in 2 independent multi-institutional sets of DP patients: developmental (n = 338; years 2012 to 2017) and validation cohort (n = 166; years 2006 to 2016). Cut-off choice was based on Youden index calculation, and its ability to predict CR-POPF occurrence was tested in a multivariable regression model adjusted for clinical, demographic, operative, and pathological variables. RESULTS: In the developmental set, median DFA1 was 1745 U/L and the CR-POPF rate was 21.9%. DFA1 correlated with CR-POPF with an area under the curve of 0.737 (P < 0.001). A DFA1 of 2000 U/L had the highest Youden index, with 74.3% sensitivity and 62.1% specificity. Patients in the validation cohort displayed different demographic and operative characteristics, lower values of DFA1 (784.5 U/L, P < 0.001), and reduced CR-POPF rate (10.2%, P < 0.001). However, a DFA1 of 2000 U/L had the highest Youden index in this cohort as well, with 64.7% sensitivity and 75.8% specificity. At multivariable analysis, DFA1 ≥2000 U/L was the only factor significantly associated with CR-POPF in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: A DFA1 of 2000 U/L optimizes CR-POPF prediction after DP. These results provide the substrate to define best practices and improve outcomes for patients receiving DP.

Characterization and Optimal Management of High-risk Pancreatic Anastomoses During Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the optimal fistula mitigation strategy following pancreaticoduodenectomy. BACKGROUND: The utility of technical strategies to prevent clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) may vary by the circumstances of the anastomosis. The Fistula Risk Score (FRS) identifies a distinct high-risk cohort (FRS 7 to 10) that demonstrates substantially worse clinical outcomes. The value of various fistula mitigation strategies in these particular high-stakes cases has not been previously explored. METHODS: This multinational study included 5323 PDs performed by 62 surgeons at 17 institutions. Mitigation strategies, including both technique related (ie, pancreatogastrostomy reconstruction; dunking; tissue patches) and the use of adjuvant strategies (ie, intraperitoneal drains; anastomotic stents; prophylactic octreotide; tissue sealants), were evaluated using multivariable regression analysis and propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 522 (9.8%) PDs met high-risk FRS criteria, with an observed CR-POPF rate of 29.1%. Pancreatogastrostomy, prophylactic octreotide, and omission of externalized stents were each associated with an increased rate of CR-POPF (all P < 0.001). In a multivariable model accounting for patient, surgeon, and institutional characteristics, the use of external stents [odds ratio (OR) 0.45, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.25-0.81] and the omission of prophylactic octreotide (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.30-0.78) were independently associated with decreased CR-POPF occurrence. In the propensity score matched cohort, an "optimal" mitigation strategy (ie, externalized stent and no prophylactic octreotide) was associated with a reduced rate of CR-POPF (13.2% vs 33.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The scenarios identified by the high-risk FRS zone represent challenging anastomoses associated with markedly elevated rates of fistula. Externalized stents and omission of prophylactic octreotide, in the setting of intraperitoneal drainage and pancreaticojejunostomy reconstruction, provides optimal outcomes.

The role of induction chemotherapy + chemoradiotherapy in localised pancreatic cancer: initial experience in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Despite being relatively rare pancreatic cancer is one of the highest causes of death. Even within the potentially resectable group outcomes are poor. We present our initial experiences utilising a neoadjuvant approach to localised pancreatic cancer, evaluating survival, response rates and tolerability. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database. Patients from 2012 to 2015 referred to a busy regional Hepato-Pancreatic Biliary (HPB) MDT were included. Patients were classified according to respectability criteria (utilising NCCN guidelines) and a treatment plan agreed. Systemic therapy with either FOLFIRINOX or Gem/Cap was delivered followed by chemoradiotherapy if disease remained localised. Toxicity, response, pathological outcomes and survival were all recorded. RESULTS: A total of 85 patients were included in the study: 45 had initially resectable disease; 19 required a response for resection and 21 had locally advanced inoperable disease; 34 patients underwent resection. The median survival for the potentially resectable group was 22.2 months while for those undergoing resection it was 37 months. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that a neoadjuvant approach is deliverable and tolerable. In addition we have demonstrated impressive survival results in patients undergoing resection with no detriment in outcome for those not proceeding to surgery.

Incorporation of Procedure-specific Risk Into the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator Improves the Prediction of Morbidity and Mortality After Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: This multicenter study sought to evaluate the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program's (ACS-NSQIP) surgical risk calculator for predicting outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) and to determine whether incorporating other factors improves its predictive capacity. BACKGROUND: The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator has been proposed as a decision-support tool to predict complication risk after various operations. Although it considers 21 preoperative factors, it does not include procedure-specific variables, which have demonstrated a strong predictive capacity for the most common and morbid complication after PD - clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). The validated Fistula Risk Score (FRS) intraoperatively predicts the occurrence of CR-POPF and serious complications after PD. METHODS: This study of 1480 PDs involved 47 surgeons at 17 high-volume institutions. Patient complication risk was calculated using both the universal calculator and a procedure-specific model that incorporated the FRS and surgeon/institutional factors. The performance of each model was compared using the c-statistic and Brier score. RESULTS: The FRS was significantly associated with 30-day mortality, 90-day mortality, serious complications, and reoperation (all P < 0.0001). The procedure-specific model outperformed the universal calculator for 30-day mortality (c-statistic: 0.79 vs 0.68; Brier score: 0.020 vs 0.021), 90-day mortality, serious complications, and reoperation. Neither surgeon experience nor institutional volume significantly predicted mortality; however, surgeons with a career PD volume >450 were less likely to have serious complications (P < 0.001) or perform reoperations (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Procedure-specific complication risk influences outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy; therefore, risk adjustment for performance assessment and comparative research should consider these preoperative and intraoperative factors along with conventional ACS-NSQIP preoperative variables.

A Glasgow Tipple-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt insertion prior to Whipple resection.

Abdominal surgery performed in patients with significant liver disease and portal hypertension is associated with high mortality rates, with even poorer outcomes associated with complex pancreaticobiliary operations. We report on a patient requiring portal decompression via transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) prior to a pancreaticoduodenectomy. The 49-year-old patient presented with pain, jaundice and weight loss. At ERCP an edematous ampulla was biopsied, revealing high-grade dysplasia within a distal bile duct adenoma. Liver biopsy was performed to investigate portal hypertension, confirming congenital hepatic fibrosis (CHF). A TIPS was performed to enable a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Prophylactic TIPS can be performed for preoperative portal decompression for patients requiring pancreatic resection. A potentially curative resection was performed when abdominal surgery was initially thought impossible. Notably, CHF has been associated with the development of cholangiocarcinoma in only four previous instances, with this case being only the second reported distal bile duct cholangiocarcinoma.

SIRT3 & SIRT7: Potential Novel Biomarkers for Determining Outcome in Pancreatic Cancer Patients.

PURPOSE: The sirtuin gene family has been linked with tumourigenesis, in both a tumour promoter and suppressor capacity. Information regarding the function of sirtuins in pancreatic cancer is sparse and equivocal. We undertook a novel study investigating SIRT1-7 protein expression in a cohort of pancreatic tumours. The aim of this study was to establish a protein expression profile for SIRT1-7 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC) and to determine if there were associations between SIRT1-7 expression, clinico-pathological parameters and patient outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Immunohistochemical analysis of SIRT1-7 protein levels was undertaken in a tissue micro-array comprising 77 resected PDACs. Statistical analyses determined if SIRT1-7 protein expression was associated with clinical parameters or outcome. RESULTS: Two sirtuin family members demonstrated significant associations with clinico-pathological parameters and patient outcome. Low level SIRT3 expression in the tumour cytoplasm correlated with more aggressive tumours, and a shorter time to relapse and death, in the absence of chemotherapeutic intervention. Low levels of nuclear SIRT7 expression were also associated with an aggressive tumour phenotype and poorer outcome, as measured by disease-free and disease-specific survival time, 12 months post-diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggests that SIRT3 and SIRT7 possess tumour suppressor properties in the context of pancreatic cancer. SIRT3 may also represent a novel predictive biomarker to determine which patients may or may not respond to chemotherapy. This study opens up an interesting avenue of investigation to potentially identify predictive biomarkers and novel therapeutic targets for pancreatic cancer, a disease that has seen no significant improvement in survival over the past 40 years.