Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

OBJECTIVES: Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr). METHODS: Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration. RESULTS: HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate risk prediction.

The effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy on exercise capacity and outcome following upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014 approximately 21,200 patients were diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer in England and Wales, of whom 37 % underwent planned curative treatments. Potentially curative surgical resection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. For operable locally advanced disease, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) improves survival over surgery alone. However, NAC carries the risk of toxicity and is associated with a decrease in physical fitness, which may in turn influence subsequent clinical outcome. Lower levels of physical fitness are associated with worse outcome following major surgery in general and Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery (UGI) surgery in particular. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides an objective assessment of physical fitness. The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that NAC prior to upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery is associated with a decrease in physical fitness and that the magnitude of the change in physical fitness will predict mortality 1 year following surgery. METHODS: This study is a multi-centre, prospective, blinded, observational cohort study of participants with oesophageal and gastric cancer scheduled for neoadjuvant cancer treatment (chemo- and chemoradiotherapy) and surgery. The primary endpoints are physical fitness (oxygen uptake at lactate threshold measured using CPET) and 1-year mortality following surgery; secondary endpoints include post-operative morbidity (Post-Operative Morbidity Survey (POMS)) 5 days after surgery and patient related quality of life (EQ-5D-5 L). DISCUSSION: The principal benefits of this study, if the underlying hypothesis is correct, will be to facilitate better selection of treatments (e.g. NAC, Surgery) in patients with oesophageal or gastric cancer. It may also be possible to develop new treatments to reduce the effects of neoadjuvant cancer treatment on physical fitness. These results will contribute to the design of a large, multi-centre trial to determine whether an in-hospital exercise-training programme that increases physical fitness leads to improved overall survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01325883 - 29(th) March 2011.

Timing of surgery following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer - A comparison of magnetic resonance imaging at two time points and histopathological responses.

PURPOSE: There is wide inter-institutional variation in the interval between neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) and surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer. We aimed to assess the association of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 9 and 14 weeks post-NACRT; T-staging (ymrT) and post-NACRT tumour regression grading (ymrTRG) with histopathological outcomes; histopathological T-stage (ypT) and histopathological tumour regression grading (ypTRG) in order to inform decision-making about timing of surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We prospectively studied 35 consecutive patients (26 males) with MRI-defined resection margin threatened rectal cancer who had completed standardized NACRT. Patients underwent a MRI at Weeks 9 and 14 post-NACRT, and surgery at Week 15. Two readers independently assessed MRIs for ymrT, ymrTRG and volume change. ymrT and ymrTRG were analysed against histopathological ypT and ypTRG as predictors by logistic regression modelling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients were recruited. Inter-observer agreement was good for all MR variables (Kappa > 0.61). Considering ypT as an outcome variable, a stronger association of favourable ymrTRG and volume change at Week 14 compared to Week 9 was found (ymrTRG - p = 0.064 vs. p = 0.010; Volume change - p = 0.062 vs. p = 0.007). Similarly, considering ypTRG as an outcome variable, a greater association of favourable ymrTRG and volume change at Week 14 compared to Week 9 was found (ymrTRG - p = 0.005 vs. p = 0.042; Volume change - p = 0.004 vs. 0.055). CONCLUSION: Following NACRT, greater tumour down-staging and volume reduction was observed at Week 14. Timing of surgery, in relation to NACRT, merits further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01325909.

The interaction of genetic determinants in the outcome of HCV infection: evidence for discrete immunological pathways.

Diversity within the innate and adaptive immune response to hepatitis C is important in determining spontaneous resolution (SR) and treatment response. The aim of this study was to analyze how these variables interact in combination; furthering our understanding of the mechanisms that drive successful immunological clearance. Multivariate analysis was performed on retrospectively collected data for 357 patients previously genotyped for interferon (IFN)-λ3/4, killer cell immunoglobulin (KIR), human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and II and tapasin. High resolution KIR genotyping was performed for individuals with chronic infection and haplotypes determined. Outcomes for SR, IFN response and cirrhosis were examined. Statistical analysis included univariate methods, χ(2) test for trend, multivariate logistic regression, synergy and principal component analysis (PCA). Although KIR2DL3:HLA-C1C1 (P = 0.027), IFN-λ3/4 rs12979860 CC (P = 0.027), tapasin G in individuals with aspartate at residue 114 of HLA-B (TapG:HLA-B(114D) ) (P = 0.007) and HLA-DRB1*04:01 (P = 0.014) were associated with SR with a strong additive influence (χ(2) test for trend P < 0.0001); favorable polymorphisms did not interact synergistically, nor did patients cluster by outcome. In the treatment cohort, IFN-λ3/4 rs12979860 CC was protective in hepatitis C virus (HCV) G1 infection and KIR2DL3:HLA-C1 in HCV G2/3. In common with SR, variables did not interact synergistically. Polymorphisms predictive of viral clearance did not predict disease progression. In summary, different individuals resolve HCV infection using discrete and non-interacting immunological pathways. These pathways are influenced by viral genotype. This work provides novel insights into the complexity of the interaction between host and viral factors in determining the outcome of HCV infection.

Does the response to aspirin and clopidogrel vary over 6 months in patients with ischemic heart disease?

BACKGROUND: Dual-antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin and a P2Y12 inhibitor, mostly clopidogrel, is the default therapy in both acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and after intracoronary stents. It is well established that responses to antiplatelet therapy (APT), particularly clopidogrel, are subject to considerable interindividual variability. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether responses to APT in individuals vary significantly over time. METHODS: Simultaneous assay with VerifyNow(™) and short thrombelastography (s-TEG) was performed before and at four time points over 6 months after hospital discharge in 40 patients receiving DAPT. Serum thromboxane B2 levels were also measured. RESULTS: While aspirin response units (ARU) by VerifyNow(™) and serum thromboxane B2 levels remained stable over time, arachidonic acid (AA)-mediated platelet aggregation with s-TEG (i.e. area under the curve at 15 min in AA channel, AUC15AA ) increased at 1 week compared with predischarge (P < 0.008). In addition, platelet reactivity units (PRU) by VerifyNow(™) (P = 0.046) and adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-mediated platelet aggregation with s-TEG (i.e. AUC15ADP ) also increased at 1 week compared with predischarge (P = 0.026). There were no significant changes in either platelet reactivity or rates of high on-treatment platelet reactivity while receiving clopidogrel beyond 1 week. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates important variability in responses to APT within individuals between predischarge and 1 week but not thereafter. The use of a single early (predischarge) platelet function assay as an indicator of future response may therefore be flawed. The design of future strategies to assess individual responses for tailored therapy needs to take this into account.

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976-2000.

Multicomponent cyclicity in influenza (flu) incidence had been observed in various countries (e.g. periods T = 1, 2-3, 5-6, 8·0, 10·6-11·3, 13, 18-19 years) and its close similarity with cycles in natural environmental phenomena as meteorological factors and heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested. This report aimed at verifying previous results on cyclic patterns of flu incidence by exploring whether flu annual cyclicity (seasonality) and trans-year (13 to <24 months) and/or multiannual (long-term, ⩾24 months) cycles might be present. For this purpose, a relatively long monthly flu incidence dataset consisting of absolute numbers of new cases from the Grand Baku area, Azerbaijan, for the years 1976-2000 (300 months) was analysed. The exploration of underlying chronomes or, time structures, was done by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral analysis and periodogram regression analysis. We analysed temporal dynamics and described multicomponent cyclicity, determining its statistical significance. The analysis, considering the flu data specifically stratified in three distinct intervals (1976-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000), and also combinations thereof, indicated that the main cyclic pattern was a seasonal one, with a period of T = 12 months. Further, a number of multiannual cycles with periods T in the ranges of 26-36, 62-85 or 113-162 months were observed, i.e. average periods of 2·5, 6·1 and 11·5 years, respectively. Indeed, most of these cycles correspond to similar cyclic parameters of HGA and further analyses are warranted to investigate such relationships. In conclusion, our study revealed the presence of multicomponent cyclic dynamics in influenza incidence by using relatively long time-series of monthly data. The specific cyclic patterns of flu incidence in Azerbaijan allows further, more specific modelling and correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity, e.g. HGA, to be explored. These results might contribute more widely to a better understanding of influenza dynamics and its aetiology as well as to the derivation of more precise forecasted estimates for planning and prevention purposes.

A method for the prescription of inexpensive spectacles by non-specialist healthcare workers: S-Glasses.

PURPOSE: Globally, 153 million people are visually impaired from uncorrected refractive error. The aim of this research was to verify a method whereby autorefractors could be used by non-specialist health-workers to prescribe spectacles, which used a small stock of preformed lenses that fit frames with standardised apertures. These spectacles were named S-Glasses (Smart Glasses). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This prospective, single-cohort exploratory study enrolled 53 patients with 94 eligible eyes having uncorrected vision of 6/18 or worse. Eyes with best-corrected vision worse than 6/12 were excluded. An autorefractor was used to obtain refractions, which were adjusted so that eyes with astigmatism less than 2.00 dioptres (D) received spherical equivalent lenses, and eyes with more astigmatism received toric lenses with a 2.50 D cylindrical element set at one of four meridians. The primary outcome was to compare S-Glasses vision with the WHO definition of visual impairment (6/18). Where astigmatism was 2.00 D or greater, comparison with spherical equivalent was made. Mixed-model analysis with repeated effect was used to account for possible correlation between the vision of fellow eyes of the same individual. RESULTS: S-Glasses corrected 100% of eyes with astigmatism less than 3.00 D and 69% of eyes with astigmatism of 3.00 D or greater. Spherical equivalent lenses corrected 25% of eyes with astigmatism of 2.00-2.99 D and 11% with astigmatism of at least 3.00 D. DISCUSSION: S-Glasses could be beneficial to resource-poor populations without trained refractionists. This novel approach, using approximate toric lenses, results in superior vision for astigmatic patients compared with the practice of providing spherical equivalent alone.

Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987-1996.

Data on the dynamics of malaria incidence, admissions and mortality and their best possible description are very important to better forecast and assess the implementation of programmes to register, monitor (e.g. by remote sensing) and control the disease, especially in endemic zones. Semi-annual and seasonal cycles in malaria rates have been observed in various countries and close similarity with cycles in the natural environment (temperature, heliogeophysical activity, etc.), host immunity and/or virulence of the parasite suggested. This study aimed at confirming previous results on malaria cyclicity by exploring whether trans-year and/or multiannual cycles might exist. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done with raw data (without smoothing) by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral (Fourier) and periodogram regression analysis. The strongest cyclical patterns of detrended malaria admissions were (i) annual period of 1·0 year (12 months or seasonality); (ii) quasi-biennial cycle of about 2·25 years; and (iii) infrannual, circadecennial cycle of about 10·3 years. The seasonal maximum occurred in May with the minimum in September. Notably, these cycles corresponded to similar cyclic components of heliogeophysical activity such as sunspot seasonality and solar activity cyclicities and well-known climate/weather oscillations. Further analyses are thus warranted to investigate such similarities. In conclusion, multicomponent cyclical dynamics of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea were observed thus allowing more specific analyses and modelling as well as correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity to be explored. Such further results might also contribute to and provide more precise estimates for the forecasting and prevention, as well as the better understanding, of the dynamics and aetiology of this vector-borne disease.

Preventing infection in general surgery: improvements through education of surgeons by surgeons.

Surgical patients are at particular risk of healthcare-associated infection (HCAI) due to the presence of a surgical site leading to surgical site infection (SSI), and because of the need for intravascular access resulting in catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI). A two-year initiative commenced with an initial audit of surgical practice; this was used to inform the development of a targeted educational initiative by surgeons specifically for surgical trainees. Parameters assessed during the initial audit and a further audit after the educational initiative were related to intra- and postoperative aspects of the prevention of SSIs, as well as care of peripheral venous catheters (PVCs) in surgical patients. The proportion of prophylactic antibiotics administered prior to incision across 360 operations increased from 30.0% to 59.1% (P<0.001). Surgical site dressings were observed in 234 patients, and a significant decrease was found in the percentage of dressings that were tampered with during the initial 48h after surgery (16.5% vs 6.2%, P=0.030). In total, 574 PVCs were assessed over the two-year period. Improvements were found in the proportion of unnecessary PVCs in situ (37.9% vs 24.4%, P<0.001), PVCs in situ for >72h (10.6% vs 3.1%, P<0.001) and PVCs covered with clean and intact dressings (87.3% vs 97.6%, P<0.001). Significant improvements in surgical practice were established for the prevention of SSI and CRBSI through a focused educational programme developed by and for surgeons. Potentially, other specific measures may also be warranted to achieve further improvements in infection prevention in surgical practice.

The risk of foot ulceration in people with diabetes screened in community settings: findings from a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Annual foot checks are recommended in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to identify those at risk of foot ulceration. Systematic reviews have found few studies evaluating the predictive value of tests in community-based diabetic populations. AIM: To quantify the predictive value of clinical risk factors in relation to foot ulceration in a community population. METHODS: A cohort of 1192 people with diabetes receiving care in community settings was recruited and a screening procedure, covering symptoms, signs and diagnostic tests was conducted at baseline. At an average 1-year follow-up patients who developed a foot ulcer were identified by an independent blind assessor. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify clinical predictors of foot ulceration. FINDINGS: The incidence of foot ulceration was 1.93% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27-2.89). Three time-independent clinical predictors with five factors were selected: previous amputation [odds ratio (OR) 14.7, 95% CI 3.1-69.5), use of insulin before 3 months with inability to distinguish between cool and cold temperatures (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.9-4.5) and failure to obtain at least one blood pressure reading for the calculation of ankle-brachial index with the failure to feel touch with a 10-g monofilament (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2). INTERPRETATION: Recommendations for annual diabetic foot check in low-risk, community-based patients should be reviewed as absolute events of ulceration are low. The accuracy of foot risk assessment tools to predict ulceration requires evaluation in randomized controlled trials with concurrent economic evaluations.

High concentrations of pepsin in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from children with cystic fibrosis are associated with high interleukin-8 concentrations.

BACKGROUND: Gastro-oesophageal reflux is common in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) and is thought to be associated with pulmonary aspiration of gastric contents. The measurement of pepsin in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid has recently been suggested to be a reliable indicator of aspiration. The prevalence of pulmonary aspiration in a group of children with CF was assessed and its association with lung inflammation investigated. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional case-control study. BAL fluid was collected from individuals with CF (n=31) and healthy controls (n=7). Interleukin-8 (IL-8), pepsin, neutrophil numbers and neutrophil elastase activity levels were measured in all samples. Clinical, microbiological and lung function data were collected from medical notes. RESULTS: The pepsin concentration in BAL fluid was higher in the CF group than in controls (mean (SD) 24.4 (27.4) ng/ml vs 4.3 (4.0) ng/ml, p=0.03). Those with CF who had raised pepsin concentrations had higher levels of IL-8 in the BAL fluid than those with a concentration comparable to controls (3.7 (2.7) ng/ml vs 1.4 (0.9) ng/ml, p=0.004). Within the CF group there was a moderate positive correlation between pepsin concentration and IL-8 in BAL fluid (r=0.48, p=0.04). There was no association between BAL fluid pepsin concentrations and age, sex, body mass index z score, forced expiratory volume in 1 s or Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonisation status. CONCLUSIONS: Many children with CF have increased levels of pepsin in the BAL fluid compared with normal controls. Increased pepsin levels were associated with higher IL-8 concentrations in BAL fluid. These data suggest that aspiration of gastric contents occurs in a subset of patients with CF and is associated with more pronounced lung inflammation.

Impaired nocturnal melatonin in acute phase of ischaemic stroke: cross-sectional matched case-control analysis.

Quantitative data on melatonin in stroke patients are scarce. A gender- and age-matched cross-sectional case-control study in 33 patients with ischaemic stroke was performed and associations between nocturnal melatonin and other factors (e.g. cortisol) were evaluated. Clinical and laboratory (e.g. melatonin and cortisol) measurements (03.00 h and 08.00 h) with statistical techniques [e.g. multifactorial regressions, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and curvilinear estimations] were used. We identified mean value and 95% confidence interval (CI) (69.70 pg/ml; 95% CI = 53.86-85.54) for control levels of nocturnal melatonin in healthy subjects. The patients with stroke had lower melatonin (48.1 +/- 35.9 pg/ml) and higher cortisol (297.3 +/- 157.8 nmol/l) at 03.00 h (P < 0.05) but not at 08.00 h (P > 0.05). Stroke was the strongest factor of disturbed nocturnal cortisol (P < 0.001), whereas decreased melatonin depended on stroke (P = 0.010) and gender (P = 0.018). At the same time, vice versa, only nocturnal measures were associated with an increased probability of the presence of stroke (accuracy > 75%, Pmodel < 0.001). Thus, a hypothesis that a decrease of melatonin with 1.0 pg/ml might be associated with > 2% increase in the probability of the presence of stroke [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.020; 95% CI = 1.002-1.037] was also suggested. The ROC curve (0.67, P = 0.0119) and optimisation techniques indicated that a novel best cut-off < 51.5 pg/ml for decreased nocturnal melatonin in the view of the presence of stroke (OR = 3.12, P = 0.0463) might exist. The classification performance of such a cut-off might be confirmed by existing nocturnal melatonin and cortisol differences between the sub-groups; potential differences in diurnal melatonin were also suggested. In conclusion, a novel melatonin cut-off of 51.5 pg/ml may be associated with the presence of ischaemic stroke. As a single marker (84% sensitivity, 74% specificity), it is hypothesised that modelling performance was independent of age, gender and cortisol. These new results, including the suggested hypothesis, might be further tested in follow-up (cohort), longitudinal studies and be applied to explore melatonin disturbances as targets in high-risk pre-stroke and post-stroke patients.

Long-term renal allograft function on a tacrolimus-based, pred-free maintenance immunosuppression comparing sirolimus vs. MMF.

It is not known how different steroid-free immunosuppressive combinations affect renal graft survival and long-term kidney transplant function. Here we sought to compare the impact on graft survival and long-term graft function of two tacrolimus (Tac)-based, prednisone-free maintenance immunosuppressive protocols: Tac/Mycophenolate Mofetil (MMF) vs. Tac/Sirolimus (SRL). Renal transplant patients given induction therapy with IL2-RA and methylprednisolone on days 0, 1 and 2 post-transplant were prospectively randomized to two maintenance immunosuppressive regimens with Tac/MMF (n = 45) or Tac/SRL (n = 37). During the 3-year follow-up the following data were collected: patient survival, renal allograft survival, incidence of acute rejection and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at different time-points post-transplant. Cumulative graft survival was significantly different in the two groups: one kidney loss in the Tac/MMF vs. six kidney losses in the Tac/SRL (log-rank test p = 0.04). GFR at different time-points post-transplant was consistently and statistically better in the Tac/MMF than in the Tac/SRL group. The slope of GFR decline per month was flatter in the Tac/MMF than in the Tac/SRL group. This study showed that renal graft survival and graft function were significantly lower in the combination of Tac/SRL than Tac/MMF.

Blood cyclosporine level soon after kidney transplantation is a major determinant of rejection: insights from the Mycophenolate Steroid-Sparing Trial.

Target organs express antigens directly recognized by antigen-specific T cells, thereby precipitating rejection. When early T-cell activation is inhibited, there is a low risk of rejection. We sought to determine the predictive values of serial posttransplant blood cyclosporine trough (C(0)) concentrations to minimize the risk for a first rejection episode compared with 2-hour postdose (C(2)) drug concentrations. The final aim of the study was to identify a concentration range for the best predictive pharmacokinetic parameter that should be targeted to reduce the risk of rejection. This possibility was explored in 334 de novo kidney transplant recipients who participated in the prospective, multicenter Mycophenolate Steroid-Sparing Trial. Among measurements performed during the first 6 months postsurgery, cyclosporine C(0) levels measured early after transplantation were the strongest predictor of acute graft rejection. Levels within 300 to 440 ng/mL were associated with the lowest risk of rejection, while patients with levels lower than 300 ng/mL showed a more than double risk. Cyclosporine trough values predicted allograft rejection with an accuracy of 74%, while C(2) levels had no predictive value. These findings underline the need to target cyclosporine therapy early posttransplant to modulate T-cell activation.

[Effects of growth factors FGF4, TGFalpha, and TGFbeta1 on the development of parthenogenetic embryos of C57BL/6 mice].

We studied the effects of three growth factors, fibroblast growth factor (FGF4), transforming growth factor alpha (TGFalpha), and transforming growth factor beta1 (TGFbeta1), on development of diploid parthenogenetic embryos of C57BL/6 mice, which are not capable of developing to somatic stages. Parthenogenetic embryos were treated with growth factors at optimal doses in vitro at the morula--blastocyst stages and transplanted in the uterus of pseudopregnant females. FGF4 and TGFalpha improved the development of parthenogenetic embryos at the preimplantation stages and the number of blastocysts increased under the influence of TGFalpha. All three growth factors improved the implantation of embryos in the uterus. When FGF4 or TGFbeta1 were added to the nutrient medium, 2.4 or 1.6%, respectively, of parthenogenetic embryos reached the somatic stages in utero. No somitic embryos were observed in the control. The treatment of parthenogenetic embryos with two growth factors, FGF4 and TGFbeta1, simultaneously increased the amount of somatic embryos to 7.5%, while combination of three growth factors in creased the amount of such embryos to 16.7%. In the latter case, some parthenogenetic embryos reached the stage of 25-27 pairs of somites and were 2.0-2.5 mm long. The data we obtained suggest that, when combined, the growth factors FGF4, TGFalpha, and RGFbeta1 possessed a synergistic effect leading to a significant improvement of the development of parthenogenetic C57BL/6 embryos.

Induced androgenesis in tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). III. Characterization of the regenerants.

We present data on the morphological, cytological, biochemical and genetic characteristics of tomato regenerants obtained through anther culture. As a result of induced androgenesis, more than 6,000 rooted regenerants were developed that differed both from the donor plants and among each other with respect to habitus and leaf, flower and inflorescence morphology. Cytological analysis revealed a great variability in chromosome number in the cells of the regenerated plants. While most of the regenerants were mixoploid, the majority of the cells had a haploid chromosome number. R(1) and R(2) progenies were tested for their resistance to Clavibacter michiganense subsp. michiganense ( Cmm 7). Some of the regenerants were resistant to the pathogen. A biochemical analysis of fruit from R(3) and R(4) plants showed a higher content of dry matter, sugars and vitamin C in the regenerant plants obtained from the hybrids than in those from the cultivars and control plants. The values of the parameters of hybrid regenerants grown in the greenhouse were about 1.5-fold higher than those of the hybrid regenerants grown in the field, and this trend is clearly expressed in all of the hybrid regenerants. The results obtained suggest that induced androgenesis and gametoclonal variation may be used as an additional tool to create a large range of new forms. The application of the latter in breeding programs would accelerate the development of tomato lines and varieties that would be more productive, disease-resistant, highly nutritive and flavour-acceptable.

Cyclicity in incidence variations of meningococcal infections in Bulgaria is similar to that of solar activity.

This is a retrospective study on meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Bulgaria that has, for the first time, reported results on non-linear temporal patterns of incidence and its variations. Methods of descriptive statistics, linear and non-linear modelling as well as periodogram regression analysis have been applied. A non-linear decreasing trend in crude incidence rates per 100 persons over the years 1940-1990 has been described (p < 0.0001) and cyclic variations revealed (periods T = 8.00, 18.75, 24.75 and 33.50 years, p < 0.05-0.01). Above cycles have been detected after the reciprocal trend has been removed (y = 1.04 + 15.78/t). A similar cyclicity (periods T = 8.25 and 27.5 years) in the variations of solar activity (sunspot number Rz) over the same time interval of 51 years has been established after the main cycle of 10.5-13 years has been removed by a two-step procedure. The results from this study have added to our previous findings on cyclic variations in mortality and lethality from meningococcal infections in Bulgaria (1, 2). Above similarity is also in accordance with earlier conclusions on relations of solar activity cycles with epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis in New York and USA over the years 1800-1935 (3, 4).