Estimating airborne pollutant concentrations in vegetated urban sites using statistical models with microclimate and urban geometry parameters as predictor variables: a case study in the city of Athens Greece.

The present study demonstrates the efficiency of applying statistical models to estimate airborne pollutant concentrations in urban vegetation by using as predictor variables readily available or easily accessible data. Results revealed that airborne cadmium concentrations in vegetation showed a predictable response to wind conditions and to various urban landscape features such as the distance between the vegetation and the adjacent street, the mean height of the adjacent buildings, the mean density of vegetation between vegetation and the adjacent street and the mean height of vegetation. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was found to have superiority in terms of accuracy with an R(2) value on the order of 0.9. The lowest R(2) value (on the order of 0.7) was associated with the linear model (SMLR model). The linear model with interactions (SMLRI model) and the tree regression (RTM) model gave similar results in terms of accuracy with R(2) values on the order of 0.8. The improvement of the results with the use of the non-linear models (RTM and ANN) and the inclusion of interaction terms in the SMLRI model implied the nonlinear relationships of pollutant concentrations to the selected predictors and showed the importance of the interactions between the various predictor variables. Despite the limitations of the models, some of them appear to be promising alternatives to multimedia-based simulation modeling approaches in urban areas with vegetation, where the application of typical deposition models is sometimes limited.

An application of artificial neural network models to estimate air temperature data in areas with sparse network of meteorological stations.

In this work artificial neural network (ANN) models are developed to estimate meteorological data values in areas with sparse meteorological stations. A more traditional interpolation model (multiple regression model, MLR) is also used to compare model results and performance. The application site is a canyon in a National Forest located in southern Greece. Four meteorological stations were established in the canyon; the models were then applied to estimate air temperature values as a function of the corresponding values of one or more reference stations. The evaluation of the ANN model results showed that fair to very good air temperature estimations may be achieved depending on the number of the meteorological stations used as reference stations. In addition, the ANN model was found to have better performance than the MLR model: mean absolute error values were found to be in the range 0.82-1.72 degrees C and 0.90-1.81 degrees C, for the ANN and the MLR models, respectively. These results indicate that ANN models may provide advantages over more traditional models or methods for temperature and other data estimations in areas where meteorological stations are sparse; they may be adopted, therefore, as an important component in various environmental modeling and management studies.

Combining neural network models to predict spatial patterns of airborne pollutant accumulation in soils around an industrial point emission source.

Neural networks (NNs) have the ability to model a wide range of complex nonlinearities. A major disadvantage of NNs, however, is their instability, especially under conditions of sparse, noisy, and limited data sets. In this paper, different combining network methods are used to benefit from the existence of local minima and from the instabilities of NNs. A nonlinear k-fold cross-validation method is used to test the performance of the various networks and also to develop and select a set of networks that exhibits a low correlation of errors. The various NN models are applied to estimate the spatial patterns of atmospherically transported and deposited lead (Pb) in soils around an historical industrial air emission point source. It is shown that the resulting ensemble networks consistently give superior predictions compared with the individual networks because, for the ensemble networks, R2 values were found to be higher than 0.9 while, for the contributing individual networks, values for R2 ranged between 0.35 and 0.85. It is concluded that combining networks can be adopted as an important component in the application of artificial NN techniques in applied air quality studies.

A preliminary study of the application of some predictive modeling techniques to assess atmospheric mercury emissions from terrestrial surfaces.

Predictive modeling techniques are applied to investigate their potential usefulness in providing first order estimates on atmospheric emission flux of gaseous soil mercury and in identifying those parameters most critical in controlling such emissions. Predicted data by simulation and statistical techniques are compared to previously published observational data. Results showed that simulation techniques using air/soil coupling may provide a plausible description of mercury flux trends with a RMSE of 24.4ngm(-2)h(-1) and a mean absolute error of 10.2ngm(-2)h(-1) or 11.9%. From the statistical models, two linear models showed the lowest predictive abilities (R2=0.76 and 0.84, respectively) while the Generalized Additive model showed the closest agreement between estimated and observational data (R2=0.93). Predicted values from a Neural Network model and the Locally Weighted Smoother model showed also very good agreement to measured values of mercury flux (R2=0.92). A Regression Tree model demonstrated also a satisfactory predictability with a value of R2=0.90. Sensitivities and statistical analyses showed that surface soil mercury concentrations, solar radiation and, to a lesser degree, temperature are important parameters in predicting airborne Hg flux from terrestrial soils. These findings are compatible with results from recent experimental studies. Considering the uncertainties associated with mercury cycling and natural emissions, it is concluded, that predictions based on simple modeling techniques seem quite appropriate at present; they can be useful tools in evaluating the role of terrestrial emission sources as part of mercury modeling in local and regional airsheds.

An application of parametric and nonparametric models to the assessment of fluoride levels in vegetation exposed to stack emissions of an aluminum reduction plant in Greece.

Various statistical models were developed for assessing airborne fluoride (F) levels in natural vegetation near an aluminum reduction plant using as predictor variables the distance from the emission source, the predominating wind, and characteristic topography-geomorphology parameters. Results revealed that F concentrations in vegetation showed a predictable response to both wind conditions and landscape features. The linear model was found to give good estimations, taking advantage of the relatively strong linear correlation between concentration and distance. A nonlinear relationship between the F concentration in vegetation and the other variables was also found, while interactions between the variables were found to be non-first-order. The nonlinear relationship hypothesis was supported by the improved results of various nonlinear models that also indicated the importance of the area's topography-geomorphology and meteorology in model predictions. The application of an artificial neural network (ANN) model showed the closest agreement between predicted and observed values with a correlation coefficient of 0.92. The improved reliability of the ANN and a regression tree model (RTM) also were indicated by the normal distribution of their residuals. The RTM and the ANN were further investigated and found to be capable of identifying the importance of the variables in vegetation exposure to air emissions.