Social Induction via a Social Behavioral Intervention on Changes in Metabolic Risk Factors: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural Appalachia, United States.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a randomized controlled trial examining the effects of a social network intervention on health. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: The Microclinic Social Network Program randomized controlled trial (implemented from June 1, 2011, through December 31, 2014) delivered weekly social-health classroom interventions for 9 to 10 months vs standard of care. Longitudinal multilevel analyses examined end-of-trial and 6-month post-intervention outcomes. Social network effects were estimated via a novel social induction ratio. RESULTS: We randomized 494 participants, comprising 27 classroom clusters from five neighborhood cohorts. Compared with controls, the intervention showed decreased body weight -6.32 pounds (95% CI, -8.65 to -3.98; overall P<.001), waist circumference -1.21 inches (95% CI, -1.84 to -0.58; overall P<.001), hemoglobin A1c % change -1.60 (95% CI, -1.88 to -1.33; overall P<.001), mean arterial blood pressure -1.83 mm Hg (95% CI, -3.79 to 0.32; overall P<.01), borderline-increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol 1.09 (95% CI, 0.01-2.17; P=.05; overall P=.01). At 6 months post-intervention, net improvements were: weight change 97% sustained (P<.001), waist circumference change 92% sustained (P<.001), hemoglobin A1c change 82.5% sustained (P<.001), high-density lipoprotein change 79% sustained (overall P=.01), and mean arterial blood pressure change greater than 100% sustained improvement of -4.21 mm Hg (P<.001). Mediation analysis found that diet and exercise did not substantially explain improvements. In the intent-to-treat analysis of social causal induction, the weight-change social induction ratio (SIR) was 1.80 for social-network weight change-meaning that social networks explained the greater weight loss in the intervention than controls. Furthermore, we observed an even stronger weight-loss SIR of 2.83 at 6 months post-intervention. CONCLUSION: Results show intervention effectiveness for improving health in resource-limited communities, with SIR demonstrating that social-network effects helped induce such improvements. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier NCT01651065.

An SMS chatbot digital educational program to increase healthy eating behaviors in adolescence: A multifactorial randomized controlled trial among 7,890 participants in the Danish National Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few cost-effective strategies to shift dietary habits of populations in a healthier direction have been identified. We examined if participating in a chatbot health education program transmitted by Short Messages Service ("SMS-program") could improve adolescent dietary behaviors and body weight trajectories. We also explored possible added effects of maternal or peer involvement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) among adolescents from the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC). Eligible were adolescents who during 2015 to 2016 at age 14 years had completed a questionnaire assessing height, weight, and dietary habits. Two thirds were offered participation in an SMS-program, whereas 1/3 ("non-SMS group") received no offer. The SMS program aimed to improve 3 key dietary intake behaviors: sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fruit and vegetables (FV), and fish. The offered programs had 3 factorially randomized schemes; the aims of these were to test effect of asking the mother or a friend to also participate in the health promotion program, and to test the effect of a 4-week individually tailored SMS program against the full 12-week SMS program targeting all 3 dietary factors. Height and weight and intakes of SSB, FV, and fish were assessed twice by a smartphone-based abbreviated dietary questionnaire completed at 6 months (m) and 18 m follow-up. Main outcome measures were (1) body mass index (BMI) z-score; and (2) an abbreviated Healthy Eating Index (mini-HEI, 1 m window, as mean of z-scores for SSB, FV, and fish). Among the 7,890 randomized adolescents, 5,260 were assigned to any SMS program; 63% (3,338) joined the offered program. Among the 7,890 randomized, 74% (5,853) and 68% (5,370) responded to follow-ups at 6 m and 18 m, respectively. Effects were estimated by intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses and inverse probability weighted per-protocol (IPW-PP) analyses excluding adolescents who did not join the program. Mean (standard deviation (SD)) mini-HEI at baseline, 6 m and 18 m was -0.01 (0.64), 0.01 (0.59), and -0.01 (0.59), respectively. In ITT-analyses, no effects were observed, at any time point, in those who had received any SMS program compared to the non-SMS group, on BMI z-score (6 m: -0.010 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.035, 0.015]; p = 0.442, 18 m: 0.002 [95% CI -0.029, 0.033]; p = 0.901) or mini-HEI (6 m: 0.016 [95% CI -0.011, 0.043]; p = 0.253, 18m: -0.016 [95% CI -0.045, 0.013]; p = 0.286). In IPW-PP analyses, at 6 m, a small decrease in BMI z-score (-0.030 [95% CI -0.057, -0.003]; p = 0.032) was observed, whereas no significant effect was observed in mini-HEI (0.027 [95% CI -0.002, 0.056]; p = 0.072), among those who had received any SMS program compared to the non-SMS group. At 18 m, no associations were observed (BMI z-score: -0.006 [95% CI -0.039, 0.027]; p = 0.724, and mini-HEI: -0.005 [95% CI -0.036, 0.026]; p = 0.755). The main limitations of the study were that DNBC participants, though derived from the general population, tend to have higher socioeconomic status than average, and that outcome measures were self-reported. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a chatbot health education program delivered through an SMS program had no effect on dietary habits or weight trajectories in ITT analyses. However, IPW-PP-analyses, based on those 63% who had joined the offered SMS program, suggested modest improvements in weight development at 6 m, which had faded at 18 m. Future research should focus on developing gender-specific messaging programs including "booster" messages to obtain sustained engagement. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02809196 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02809196.

Social network enhanced behavioral interventions for diabetes and obesity: A 3 arm randomized trial with 2 years follow-up in Jordan.

While obesity and diabetes are rising pandemics, few low-cost and effective prevention and management strategies exist, especially in the Middle East. Nearly 20% of adults in Jordan suffer from diabetes, and over 75% are overweight or obese. Social network-based programs have shown promise as a viable public health intervention strategy to address these growing crises. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Microclinic Program (MCP) via a 6-month multi-community randomized trial in Jordan, with follow-up at 2 years. The MCP leverages existing social relationships to propagate positive health behaviors and information. We recruited participants from 3 community health centers in Amman, Jordan. Participants were eligible for the study if they had diabetes, pre-diabetes, or possessed ≥1 metabolic risk factor along with a family history of diabetes. We randomized participants into three trial arms: (A Group) received the Full MCP with curriculum-activated social network interactions; (B Group) received Basic MCP educational sessions with organic social network interactions; or (C Group-Control) received standard care coupled with active monitoring and parallel screenings. Groups of individuals were randomized as units in a 3:1:1 ratio, with resulting group sizes of n = 540, 186, and 188 in arms A, B, and C, respectively. We assessed the overall changes in body weight, fasting glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and mean arterial blood pressure between study arms in multiple evaluations across 2 years (including at 6-months and 2-years follow-up). We investigated the effectiveness of Full and Basic MCP social network interventions using multilevel models for longitudinal data with hierarchical nesting of individuals within MCP classrooms, within community centers, and within temporal cohorts. We observed significant overall 2-year differences between all 3 groups for changes in body weight (P = 0.0003), fasting blood glucose (P = 0.0015), and HbA1c (P = 0.0004), but not in mean arterial blood pressure (P = 0.45). However, significant changes in mean arterial pressure were observed for Full MCP versus controls (P = 0.002). Weight loss in the Full MCP exceeded (-0.97 kg (P<0.001)) the Basic MCP during the intervention. Furthermore, both Full and Basic MCP yielded greater weight loss compared to the control group at 2 years. The Full MCP also sustained a superior fasting glucose change over 2 years (overall P<0.0001) versus the control group. For HbA1c, the Full MCP similarly led to greater 6-month reduction in HbA1c versus the control group (P<0.001), with attenuation at 2 years. For mean arterial blood pressure, the Full MCP yielded a greater drop in blood pressure versus control at 6 months; with attenuation at 2 years. These results suggest that activated social networks of classroom interactions can be harnessed to improve health behaviors related to obesity and diabetes. Future studies should investigate how public health policies and initiatives can further leverage social network programs for greater community propagation. Trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01818674.

Dairy intake and risk of hip fracture in prospective cohort studies: non-linear algorithmic dose-response analysis in 486 950 adults.

Previous studies on the relationship between dairy consumption and hip fracture risk have reported inconsistent findings. Therefore, we aimed to conduct an algorithmically driven non-linear dose-response meta-analysis of studies assessing dairy intake and risk of developing incident hip fracture. Meta-analysis from PubMed and Google Scholar searches for articles of prospective studies of dairy intake and risk of hip fracture, supplemented by additional detailed data provided by authors. Meta-regression derived dose-response relative risks, with comprehensive algorithm-driven dose assessment across the entire dairy consumption spectrum for non-linear associations. Review of studies published in English from 1946 through December 2021. A search yielded 13 studies, with 486 950 adults and 15 320 fractures. Non-linear dose models were found to be empirically superior to a linear explanation for the effects of milk. Milk consumption was associated with incrementally higher risk of hip fractures up to an intake of 400 g/d, with a 7 % higher risk of hip fracture per 200 g/d of milk (RR 1⋅07, 95 % CI 1⋅05, 1⋅10; P < 0⋅0001), peaking with 15 % higher risk (RR 1⋅15, 95 % CI 1⋅09, 1⋅21, P < 0⋅0001) at 400 g/d versus 0 g/d. Although there is a dose-risk attenuation above 400 g/d, milk consumption nevertheless continued to exhibit elevated risk of hip fracture, compared to zero intake, up to 750 g/d. Meanwhile, the analysis of five cohort studies of yoghurt intake per 250 g/d found a linear inverse association with fracture risk (RR 0⋅85, 95 % CI 0⋅82, 0⋅89), as did the five studies of cheese intake per 43 g/d (~1 serving/day) (RR 0⋅81, 95 % CI 0⋅72, 0⋅92); these studies did not control for socioeconomic status. However, no apparent association between total dairy intake and hip fracture (RR per 250 g/d of total dairy = 0⋅97, 95 % CI 0⋅93, 1⋅004; P = 0⋅079). There were both non-linear effects and overall elevated risk of hip fracture associated with greater milk intake, while lower risks of hip fracture were reported for higher yoghurt and cheese intakes.

Correction: Ramadan fasting and weight change trajectories: Time-varying association of weight during and after Ramadan in low-income and refugee populations.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000371.].

Ramadan fasting and weight change trajectories: Time-varying association of weight during and after Ramadan in low-income and refugee populations.

Obesity is a significant driver of the global burden of non-communicable diseases. Fasting is one approach that has been shown to improve health outcomes. However, the effects of Ramadan fasting differ in that the type, frequency, quantity, and time of food consumption vary. This phenomenon requires in-depth evaluation considering that 90% of Muslims (~2 billion people) fast during Ramadan. To address this issue, we evaluated the pattern of weight change during and following Ramadan for a total of 52 weeks. The study was conducted in Amman, Jordan. Between 2012 and 2015, 913 participants were recruited as part of a trial investigating the efficacy of a weight loss intervention among those with or at risk for diabetes. Weight was measured weekly starting at the beginning of Ramadan, and changes were analyzed using discrete and spline models adjusted for age, sex, and trial group. Results show slight weight gain within the first two weeks and weight loss in the subsequent weeks. During the first week of Ramadan, the estimate for a weight increase was 0·427 kg, (95% CI: -0·007, 0·861) relative to baseline, compared to an estimated weight reduction of 0·55kg (95% CI: 0·05, 1·05) by the 8th week relative to baseline. There was clear evidence of gradual weight gain from week 8 until week 26 with an estimated weight gain of 2.547 kg (95% CI: 1.567, 3.527) at week 26 relative to baseline. A sharp drop of 2.66kg in weight was observed between the 26th and 28th week before it stabilized. Our results show that weight changes occurred during and after Ramadan. Weight fluctuations may affect health risks, and thus, findings from this study can inform interventions. Public health agencies could leverage this period of dietary change to sustain some of the benefits of fasting. The authors (DEZ, EFD) acknowledge the Mulago Foundation, the Horace W. Goldsmith Foundation, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the World Diabetes Foundation. TRIAL REGISTRATION. Clinicaltrials.gov registry identifier: NCT01596244.

The Kanyakla study: Randomized controlled trial of a microclinic social network intervention for promoting engagement and retention in HIV care in rural western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Existing social relationships are a potential source of "social capital" that can enhance support for sustained retention in HIV care. A previous pilot study of a social network-based 'microclinic' intervention, including group health education and facilitated HIV status disclosure, reduced disengagement from HIV care. We conducted a pragmatic randomized trial to evaluate microclinic effectiveness. METHODS: In nine rural health facilities in western Kenya, we randomized HIV-positive adults with a recent missed clinic visit to either participation in a microclinic or usual care (NCT02474992). We collected visit data at all clinics where participants accessed care and evaluated intervention effect on disengagement from care (≥90-day absence from care after a missed visit) and the proportion of time patients were adherent to clinic visits ('time-in-care'). We also evaluated changes in social support, HIV status disclosure, and HIV-associated stigma. RESULTS: Of 350 eligible patients, 304 (87%) enrolled, with 154 randomized to intervention and 150 to control. Over one year of follow-up, disengagement from care was similar in intervention and control (18% vs 17%, hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.61-1.75), as was time-in-care (risk difference -2.8%, 95% CI -10.0% to +4.5%). The intervention improved social support for attending clinic appointments (+0.4 units on 5-point scale, 95% CI 0.08-0.63), HIV status disclosure to close social supports (+0.3 persons, 95% CI 0.2-0.5), and reduced stigma (-0.3 units on 5-point scale, 95% CI -0.40 to -0.17). CONCLUSIONS: The data from our pragmatic randomized trial in rural western Kenya are compatible with the null hypothesis of no difference in HIV care engagement between those who participated in a microclinic intervention and those who did not, despite improvements in proposed intervention mechanisms of action. However, some benefit or harm cannot be ruled out because the confidence intervals were wide. Results differ from a prior quasi-experimental pilot study, highlighting important implementation considerations when evaluating complex social interventions for HIV care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trial number: NCT02474992.

Corrigendum to "Evaluation of Healthy2Go: A country store transformation project to improve the food environment and consumer choices in Appalachian Kentucky" [Prev. Med. Rep. 7 (2017) 187-192].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.06.009.].

Total and Free Sugars Consumption in a Slovenian Population Representative Sample.

Excessive free sugars consumption is associated with poor health outcomes. Thus, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends limiting free sugars intake to no more than 10% of total energy intake. To evaluate current intakes of dietary sugars and monitor the adherence to the guidelines, the objective of this study was to comprehensively assess total and free sugars consumption of different age groups within the Slovenian population. The Slovenian national food consumption survey SI.Menu 2017/18 was conducted on representative samples of adolescents (10-17 years), adults (18-64 years), and the elderly (65-74 years) using two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. The analyses were carried out on a sample of 1248 study participants. Free sugars content in food was estimated based on previously established databases. The population weighted median free sugars intake accounted for 10.1% of total energy intake (TEI) among adolescents, 6.4% among adults, and 6.5% in the elderly population. Both total and free sugars consumption in the percentage of TEI were higher among women than men, in participants with lower education, and those with higher family net income. The main sources of free sugars in adolescents were beverages, cakes, muffins, pastry, and dairy products; for adults and the elderly, the key sources of free sugars were beverages, cakes, muffins, pastry, and sugars, honey, and related products. A total of 56% of adolescents, 84% of adults, and 81% of the elderly population adhered to the WHO free sugars guidelines. Additional measures will be required to further decrease free sugars consumption among the teenage population, in which dietary patterns are still of greatest concern.

Willingness to adopt wearable devices with behavioral and economic incentives by health insurance wellness programs: results of a US cross-sectional survey with multiple consumer health vignettes.

BACKGROUND: The number of health-related wearable devices is growing but it is not clear if Americans are willing to adopt health insurance wellness programs based on wearables and the incentives with which they would be more willing to adopt. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study we used a survey methodology, usage vignettes and a dichotomous scale to examine U.S. residents' willingness to adopt wearables (WTAW) in six use-cases where it was mandatory to use a wearable device and share the resulting data with a health insurance company. Each use-case was tested also for the influence of additional economic incentives on WTAW. RESULTS: A total of 997 Americans across 46 states participated in the study. Most of them were 25 to 34 years old (40.22%), 57.27% were female, and 74.52% were white. On average, 69.5% of the respondents were willing to adopt health-insurance use-cases based on wearable devices, though 77.8% of them were concerned about issues related to economic benefits, data privacy and to a lesser extent, technological accuracy. WTAW was 11-18% higher among consumers in use-cases involving health promotion and disease prevention. Furthermore, additional economic incentives combined with wearables increased WTAW overall. Notably, financial incentives involving providing healthcare credits, insurance premium discount, and/or wellness product discounts had particularly greater effectiveness for increasing WTAW in the consumer use-cases involving participation: for health promotion (RR = 1.06 for financial incentive, 95% CI: 1.01-1.11; P = 0.018); for personalized products and services (RR = 1.11 for financial incentive, 95% CI: 1.01-1.21; P = 0.018); and for automated underwriting discount at annual renewal (RR = 1.28 for financial incentive, 95% CI: 1.20-1.37; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Under the adequate economic, data privacy and technical conditions, 2 out of 3 Americans would be willing to adopt health insurance wellness programs based on wearable devices, particularly if they have benefits related to health promotion and disease prevention, and particularly with financial incentives.

Isotemporal Substitution as the Gold Standard Model for Physical Activity Epidemiology: Why It Is the Most Appropriate for Activity Time Research.

Isotemporal substitution model was first developed in 2009 [...].

A social-network behavioral health program on sustained long-term body weight and glycemic outcomes: 2-year follow-up of a 4-month Microclinic Health Program in Jordan.

The burden of chronic diseases like diabetes and obesity is rapidly increasing in low and lower-middle income countries. This work assesses the long-term efficacy of a social-network based community health program for the management and prevention of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The 4-month Microclinic Social Network Behavioral Health Program in Jordan (J-MCP) was an intervention for obesity and diabetes prevention and management conducted in the Kingdom of Jordan. Weight and HbA1c were collected at baseline, end of the 4-month program, and then 12 and 24 months after baseline. Multi-level longitudinal repeated measures analysis estimated the long-term change in metabolic outcomes, and estimated the intra-class correlations (ICCs) for assessing the degree of clustering that different social network levels, of microclinic group vs. classroom group vs. clinic geographic location vs. cohort temporal wave, contributed to body weight and glycemic changes. RESULTS: Of 315 participants, 83.2% completed the J-MCP program, with 90% followup at 12-months, and 70% at 24-months. At the end of the 4-month program, participants experienced a -2.8 kg (95% CI: -3.6 to -2.1) mean body weight decrease, a corresponding -1.1 kg/m2 (-1.3 to -0.8) BMI decrease, and a -0.5% reduction in HbA1c (-0.6 to -0.3). At year 1, we observed significant mean weight reduction of -1.8 kg (-2.7 to -0.9), a corresponding -0.7 kg/m2 (-1.0 to -0.4) reduction in BMI, as well as a -0.4% (-0.6 to -0.3) sustained reduction in HbA1c. At 2 years, participants sustained mean weight loss of -1.6 kg (-2.6 to -0.5), a -0.42 kg/m2 (-0.8 to -0.04) reduction in BMI, and an absolute -1.0% (-1.1 to -0.8) sustained reduction in HbA1c. Analyzing different social network levels, classroom group explained ~50% of total clustering of total weight loss and 22% of HbA1c trajectories during the short 4 month intervention. However, during 12 and 24 month followup, microclinic social group clustering explained ~75% to 92% of long-term weight loss trajectories, and 55% of long-term HbA1c trajectories. The pattern of 1-2 year sustainability of the weight and HbA1c decreases was largely attributed to the microclinic social network clusters. CONCLUSION: Results demonstrate that the 4-month J-MCP behavioral intervention yielded important 2-year sustained weight and HbA1c reductions, which were mostly attributed to microclinic social groups.

Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures: Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Among US States, 1990-2016.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017. Exposures: Residing in the United States. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results: Between 1990 and 2016, age-standardized CVD DALYs for all states decreased. Several states had large rises in their relative rank ordering for total CVD DALYs among states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The rate of decline varied widely across states, and CVD burden increased for a small number of states in the most recent years. Cardiovascular disease DALYs remained twice as large among men compared with women. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD DALYs in all states, but the second most common varied by state. Trends were driven by 12 groups of risk factors, with the largest attributable CVD burden due to dietary risk exposures followed by high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high total cholesterol level, high fasting plasma glucose level, tobacco smoking, and low levels of physical activity. Increases in risk-deleted CVD DALY rates between 2006 and 2016 in 16 states suggest additional unmeasured risks beyond these traditional factors. Conclusions and Relevance: Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden. Differences in CVD burden are largely attributable to modifiable risk exposures.

Consumption of dairy foods and diabetes incidence: a dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of cohort studies suggest a potential role of dairy consumption in type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevention. The strength of this association and the amount of dairy needed is not clear. OBJECTIVE: We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the associations of incident T2D with dairy foods at different levels of intake. DESIGN: A systematic literature search of the PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases (from inception to 14 April 2015) was supplemented by hand searches of reference lists and correspondence with authors of prior studies. Included were prospective cohort studies that examined the association between dairy and incident T2D in healthy adults. Data were extracted with the use of a predefined protocol, with double data-entry and study quality assessments. Random-effects meta-analyses with summarized dose-response data were performed for total, low-fat, and high-fat dairy, (types of) milk, (types of) fermented dairy, cream, ice cream, and sherbet. Nonlinear associations were investigated, with data modeled with the use of spline knots and visualized via spaghetti plots. RESULTS: The analysis included 22 cohort studies comprised of 579,832 individuals and 43,118 T2D cases. Total dairy was inversely associated with T2D risk (RR: 0.97 per 200-g/d increment; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.00;P= 0.04;I(2)= 66%), with a suggestive but similar linear inverse association noted for low-fat dairy (RR: 0.96 per 200 g/d; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.00;P= 0.072;I(2)= 68%). Nonlinear inverse associations were found for yogurt intake (at 80 g/d, RR: 0.86 compared with 0 g/d; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.90;P< 0.001;I(2)= 73%) and ice cream intake (at ∼10 g/d, RR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.85;P< 0.001;I(2)= 86%), but no added incremental benefits were found at a higher intake. Other dairy types were not associated with T2D risk. CONCLUSION: This dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies suggests a possible role for dairy foods, particularly yogurt, in the prevention of T2D. Results should be considered in the context of the observed heterogeneity.