Prediction of villages at risk for filariasis transmission in the Nile Delta using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies.

Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were used to discriminate between 130 villages, in the Nile Delta, at high and low risk for filariasis, as defined by microfilarial prevalence. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data were digitally processed to generate a map of landcover as well as spectral indices such as NDVI and moisture index. A Tasseled Cap transformation was also carried out on the TM data which produced three more indices: brightness, greenness and wetness. GIS functions were used to extract information on landcover and spectral indices within one km buffers around the study villages. The relationship between satellite data and prevalence was investigated using discriminant analysis. The analysis indicated that the most important landscape elements associated with prevalence were water and marginal vegetation, while wetness and moisture index were the most important indices. Discriminant functions generated for these variables were able to correctly predict 80% and 74% of high and low prevalence villages, respectively, with an overall accuracy of 77%. The present approach provides a promising tool for regional filariasis surveillance and helps direct control efforts.

Spatial analysis of lymphatic filariasis distribution in the Nile Delta in relation to some environmental variables using geographic information system technology.

Geographic information system (GIS) was used to analyze the spatial distribution of filariasis in the Nile Delta. The study involved 201 villages belonging to Giza, Qalubiya, Monoufiya, Gharbiya, and Dakahliya governorates. Villages with similar microfilarial (mf) prevalence rates were observed to cluster within 1-2 km distance, then, clustering started to decrease significantly with distance up to 5 km (Pearson correlation coefficient = -0.98). the likelihood of negative and high prevalence villages being contiguous was very low (approximately 1.8%, n = 612 village-pairs) indicating homogeneity in disease processes within the defined spatial scales. Of the villages located within 2 km from the main Nile branches (n = 46), 95% exhibited low prevalence. In addition, the spatial pattern of mf prevalence was shown to be negatively associated with annual rainfall and relative humidity, while it was positively associated with annual daily temperature. Average mf prevalence in warmer, relatively drier areas receiving 25 mm of rain was significantly higher (3.9%) than that in less warmer but more humid areas receiving 50 mm of rain (1.6%) (P < 0.0001). Based on the results of the present study, GIS was used to generate a "filariasis risk map" that could be used by health authorities to efficiently direct surveillance and control efforts. This investigation identified some of the factors underlying filariasis spatial pattern, quantified clustering and demonstrated the potential of GIS application in vector-borne disease epidemiology.

Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico.

A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

Landscape characterization of peridomestic risk for Lyme disease using satellite imagery.

Remotely sensed characterizations of landscape composition were evaluated for Lyme disease exposure risk on 337 residential properties in two communities of suburban Westchester County, New York. Properties were categorized as no, low, or high risk based on seasonally adjusted densities of Ixodes scapularis nymphs, determined by drag sampling during June and July 1990. Spectral indices based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data provided relative measures of vegetation structure and moisture (wetness), as well as vegetation abundance (greenness). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to spatially quantify and relate the remotely sensed landscape variables to risk category. A comparison of the two communities showed that Chappaqua, which had more high-risk properties (P < 0.001), was significantly greener and wetter than Armonk (P < 0.001). Furthermore, within Chappaqua, high-risk properties were significantly greener and wetter than lower-risk properties in this community (P < 0.01). The high-risk properties appeared to contain a greater proportion of broadleaf trees, while lower-risk properties were interpreted as having a greater proportion of nonvegetative cover and/or open lawn. The ability to distinguish these fine scale differences among communities and individual properties illustrates the efficiency of a remote sensing/GIS-based approach for identifying peridomestic risk of Lyme disease over large geographic areas.

Landscape surrounding human settlements and Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance in Southern Chiapas, Mexico.

Landscape characteristics that may influence important components of the Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann life cycle, including potential breeding sites, suitable diurnal resting sites, and possible sources of blood meals, were analyzed at 14 villages in a malarious area of southern Mexico. An. albimanus adults were collected weekly in each village using UV-light traps between July 1991 and August 1992. Based on rainfall, the study was divided into 6 seasonal periods. Villages were considered to have high mosquito abundance when >5 mosquitoes per trap per night were collected during any 1 of the 6 seasonal periods. The extension and frequency of 11 land cover types surrounding villages were determined using aerial photographs and subsequently verified through field surveys. Elevation was the main landscape feature that separated villages with low and high mosquito abundance. All villages with high mosquito abundance were below 25 m. Transitional and mangrove land cover types were found only in the high mosquito abundance group. Flooded areas as potential breeding sites and potential adult resting sites in unmanaged pastures were significantly more frequent in areas surrounding villages with high mosquito abundance. No significant differences in density of cattle and horses were found among village groups. Overall, surrounding breeding sites located at low elevations in flooded unmanaged pastures seemed to be the most important determinants of An. albimanus adult abundance in the villages.

Remote sensing as a landscape epidemiologic tool to identify villages at high risk for malaria transmission.

A landscape approach using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies was developed to discriminate between villages at high and low risk for malaria transmission, as defined by adult Anopheles albimanus abundance. Satellite data for an area in southern Chiapas, Mexico were digitally processed to generate a map of landscape elements. The GIS processes were used to determine the proportion of mapped landscape elements surrounding 40 villages where An. albimanus abundance data had been collected. The relationships between vector abundance and landscape element proportions were investigated using stepwise discriminant analysis and stepwise linear regression. Both analyses indicated that the most important landscape elements in terms of explaining vector abundance were transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture. Discriminant functions generated for these two elements were able to correctly distinguish between villages with high and low vector abundance, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Regression results found both transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture proportions to be predictive of vector abundance during the mid-to-late wet season. This approach, which integrates remotely sensed data and GIS capabilities to identify villages with high vector-human contact risk, provides a promising tool for malaria surveillance programs that depend on labor-intensive field techniques. This is particularly relevant in areas where the lack of accurate surveillance capabilities may result in no malaria control action when, in fact, directed action is necessary. In general, this landscape approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases in areas where 1) the landscape elements critical to vector survival are known and 2) these elements can be detected at remote sensing scales.