Modelling the Potential Public Health Impact of Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies with an Adapted Vaccine in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has been a dynamically changing virus, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated the potential public health impact alternative vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The outcomes of alternative vaccination strategies with a future adapted vaccine were estimated using a combined Markov decision tree model. The population was stratified by high- and standard-risk. Using age-specific inputs informed by local surveillance data and published sources, the model estimated health (case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic (medical costs and productivity losses) outcomes in different age and risk subpopulations. RESULTS: Booster vaccination in only the elderly and high-risk subpopulation was estimated to avert 278,614 cases 21,558 hospitalizations, 239 deaths, Singapore dollars (SGD) 277 million in direct medical costs, and SGD 684 million in indirect medical costs. These benefits increased as vaccination was expanded to other subpopulations. Increasing the booster vaccination coverage to 75% of the standard-risk population averted more deaths (3%), hospitalizations (29%), infections (145%), direct costs (90%), and indirect costs (192%) compared to the base case. CONCLUSIONS: Broader vaccination strategies using an adapted booster vaccine could have substantial public health and economic impact in Singapore.

Modelling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has continuously evolved, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated the impact of the introduction and increased coverage of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine in Thailand. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The outcomes of booster vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine versus no booster vaccination were estimated using a combined cohort Markov decision tree model. The population was stratified into high- and standard-risk subpopulations. Using age-specific inputs informed by published sources, the model estimated health (case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic (medical costs and productivity losses) outcomes in different age and risk subpopulations. RESULTS: Booster vaccination in only the elderly and high-risk subpopulation was estimated to avert 97,596 cases 36,578 hospitalizations, 903 deaths, THB 3,119 million in direct medical costs, and THB 10,589 million in indirect medical costs. These benefits increased as vaccination was expanded to other subpopulations. Increasing the booster vaccination coverage to 75% of the standard-risk population averted more deaths (95%), hospitalizations (512%), infections (782%), direct costs (550%), and indirect costs (687%) compared to the base case. CONCLUSIONS: Broader vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine could have significant public health and economic benefits in Thailand.

A multiscale mathematical model describing the growth and development of bambara groundnut.

A principal objective in agriculture is to maximise food production; this is particularly relevant with the added demands of an ever increasing population, coupled with the unpredictability that climate change brings. Further improvements in productivity can only be achieved with an increased understanding of plant and crop processes. In this respect, mathematical modelling of plants and crops plays an important role. In this paper we present a two-scale mathematical model of crop yield that accounts for plant growth and canopy interactions. A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is formulated to describe the growth of each individual plant, where equations are coupled via a term that describes plant competition via canopy-canopy interactions. A crop of greenhouse plants is then modelled via an agent based modelling approach in which the growth of each plant is described via our system of ODEs. The model is formulated for the African drought tolerant legume bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea), which is currently being investigated as a food source in light of climate change and food insecurity challenges. Our model allows us to account for plant diversity and also investigate the effect of individual plant traits (e.g. plant canopy size and planting distance) on the yield of the overall crop. Informed with greenhouse data, model results show that plant positioning relative to other plants has a large impact on individual plant yield. Variation in physiological plant traits from genetic diversity and the environmental effects lead to experimentally observed variations in crop yield. These traits include plant height, plant carrying capacity, leaf accumulation rate and canopy spread. Of these traits plant height and ground cover growth rates are found to have the greatest impact on crop yield. We also consider a range of different planting arrangements (uniform grid, staggered grid, circular rings and random allocation) and find that the staggered grid leads to the greatest crop yield (6% more compared to uniform grid). Whilst formulated specifically for bambara groundnut, the generic formulation of our model means that with changes to certain parameter's, it may be extended to other crop species that form a canopy.