Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj.

BACKGROUND: Mass gatherings can not only trigger major outbreaks on-site but also facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Hajj is one of the largest mass gathering events worldwide where over two million pilgrims from all over the world gather annually creating intense congestion. METHODS: We developed a meta-population model to represent the transmission dynamics of Neisseria meningitidis and the impact of Hajj pilgrimage on the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) for pilgrims population, local population at the Hajj site and country of origin of Hajj pilgrims. This model was calibrated using data on IMD over 17 years (1995-2011) and further used to simulate potential changes in vaccine policy and endemic conditions. RESULTS: The effect of increased density of contacts during Hajj was estimated to generate a 78-fold increase in disease transmission that impacts not only pilgrims but also the local population. Quadrivalent ACWY vaccination was found to be very effective in reducing the risk of outbreak during Hajj. Hajj has more limited impact on IMD transmission and exportation in the pilgrim countries of origin, although not negligible given the size of the population considered. CONCLUSION: The analysis performed highlighted the amplifying effect of mass gathering on N. meningitidis transmission and confirm vaccination as a very effective preventive measure to mitigate outbreak risks.

Systematic review of invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology in the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa region.

BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) represents a global health burden. However, its epidemiology in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and North Africa (NA) regions is currently not well understood. This review had four key objectives: to describe asymptomatic meningococcal carriage, IMD epidemiology (e.g. serogroup prevalence, case-fatality rates [CFRs]), IMD presentation and management (e.g. clinical diagnosis, antibiotic treatments) and economic impact and evaluation (including health technology assessment [HTA] recommendations) in EM and NA. METHODS: A systematic literature search (MEDLINE and EMBASE) was conducted (January 2000 to February 2021). Search strings included meningococcal disease and the regions/countries of interest. Identified publications were screened sequentially by title/abstract, followed by screening of the full-text article; articles were also assessed on methodological quality. Literature reviews, genetic sequencing or diagnostic accuracy studies, or other non-pertinent publication type were excluded. An additional grey literature search (non-peer-reviewed sources; start date January 2000) was conducted to the end of April 2019. RESULTS: Of the 1745 publications identified, 79 were eligible for the final analysis (n = 61 for EM and n = 19 for NA; one study was relevant to both). Asymptomatic meningococcal carriage rates were 0-33% in risk groups (e.g. military personnel, pilgrims) in EM (no data in NA). In terms of epidemiology, serogroups A, B and W were most prevalent in EM compared with serogroups B and C in NA. IMD incidence was 0-20.5/100,000 in EM and 0.1-3.75/100,000 in NA (reported by 7/15 countries in EM and 3/5 countries in NA). CFRs were heterogenous across the EM, ranging from 0 to 57.9%, but were generally lower than 50%. Limited NA data showed a CFR of 0-50%. Data were also limited in terms of IMD presentation and management, particularly relating to clinical diagnosis/antibiotic treatment. No economic evaluation or HTA studies were found. CONCLUSIONS: High-risk groups remain a significant reservoir of asymptomatic meningococcal carriage. It is probable that inadequacies in national surveillance systems have contributed to the gaps identified. There is consequently a pressing need to improve national surveillance systems in order to estimate the true burden of IMD and guide appropriate prevention and control programmes in these regions.

The epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis: multicenter, hospital-based surveillance of meningococcal meningitis in Iraq.

Objectives: Outbreaks of Neisseria meningitidis have reached alarming levels due to the pathogen's ability to cause severe complications, presenting as meningitis or septicemia. Our study reports the results of the first wide-scale surveillance of meningococcal meningitis in Iraq. Methods: The study included all consecutive cases of clinically suspected meningitis between June 2018 and May 2020 at 18 major hospitals around Iraq (n = 2314). Laboratory analysis of biological samples and real-time polymerase chain reaction tests were conducted to confirm bacterial etiology. Demographical and medical data were collected for statistical analysis. Results: In total, 370 patients were confirmed to have bacterial meningitis (215 had N. meningitidis, 154 had Streptococcus pneumoniae, and one case had Haemophilus influenzae type b). The most common N. meningitidis serogroup was B (77.7%), followed by W (18.1%) and X (4.2%). The annual incidence rate of N. meningitidis per 100 000 population was 0.86, with the highest being in Karbala (1.52 per 100 000 population). Cases of meningococcal meningitis were more likely to occur in children younger than 15 (OR = 3.526), and in the winter (OR = 1.474). Conclusions: Continuous surveillance of N. meningitidis is necessary in Iraq, and can only be achieved through improved detection methods. The incidence of meningococcal meningitis in Iraq warrants improved vaccination programs.