The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.

Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.

Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions.

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF[Formula: see text]), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF[Formula: see text]). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 [Formula: see text]). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg [Formula: see text]-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations.

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons1. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s2. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown3. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.

Chemical evidence of inter-hemispheric air mass intrusion into the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

The East Asian Summer Monsoon driven by temperature and moisture gradients between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean, leads to approximately 50% of the annual rainfall in the region across 20-40°N. Due to its increasing scientific and social importance, there have been several previous studies on identification of moisture sources for summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia mainly using Lagrangian or Eulerian atmospheric water vapor models. The major source regions for EASM previously proposed include the North Indian Ocean, South China Sea and North western Pacific. Based on high-precision and high-frequency 6-year measurement records of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), here we report a direct evidence of rapid intrusion of warm and moist tropical air mass from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) reaching within a couple of days up to 33°N into East Asia. We further suggest that the combination of direct chemical tracer record and a back-trajectory model with physical meteorological variables helps pave the way to identify moisture sources for monsoon rainfall. A case study for Gosan station (33.25°N, 126.19°E) indicates that the meridional transport of precipitable water from the SH accompanying the southerly/southwesterly flow contributes most significantly to its summer rainfall.

Continued Emissions of the Ozone-Depleting Substance Carbon Tetrachloride From Eastern Asia.

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, accounting for about 10% of the chlorine in the troposphere. Under the terms of the Montreal Protocol, its production for dispersive uses was banned from 2010. In this work we show that, despite the controls on production being introduced, CCl4 emissions from the eastern part of China did not decline between 2009 and 2016. This finding is in contrast to a recent bottom-up estimate, which predicted a significant decrease in emissions after the introduction of production controls. We find eastern Asian emissions of CCl4 to be 16 (9-24) Gg/year on average between 2009 and 2016, with the primary source regions being in eastern China. The spatial distribution of emissions that we derive suggests that the source distribution of CCl4 in China changed during the 8-year study period, indicating a new source or sources of emissions from China's Shandong province after 2012.

Suitability of measurements used to assess mental health outcomes in men and women trafficked for sexual and labour exploitation: a systematic review.

Trafficking is a global human rights violation with multiple and complex mental health consequences. Valid and reliable mental health assessment tools are needed to inform health-care provision. We reviewed mental health assessment tools used in research with men and women trafficked for sexual and labour exploitation. We searched nine electronic databases (PsycINFO, Ovid Medline, PubMed, Embase, Assia, the Web of Science, Global Health, Google Scholar, and Open Grey) and hand-searched the reference lists of relevant identified studies. Seven studies were included in this Review. Six of the studies screened for post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety; one study screened for harmful use or abuse of alcohol and used a diagnostic tool to assess post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. Two studies included men in their sample population. Although the reported prevalence of mental health problems was high, little information was provided about the validity, reliability, and cultural appropriateness of assessment tools. Further research is needed to determine which assessment tools are culturally appropriate, valid, and reliable for trafficked people.

Readmission rates among cardiology inpatients with echocardiography abnormalities associated with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a condition associated with significant morbidity. It is caused by structural or functional abnormalities of the heart. Many of these abnormalities if detected and managed early would prevent the onset of heart failure. AIMS: The aim of this study was to to determine the usefulness of echocardiography as a means of predicting readmission rates. A secondary aim was to profile patients with echocardiography abnormalities. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study that followed patients over 36 months. Data were abstracted from the medical records of 76 cardiology patients in a large urban teaching hospital between 1.6.11 and 31.8.14. The outcome of interest was the number of readmissions occurring up to 48 months after discharge. We also aimed to profile these patients in terms of their co-morbidities and their medication history. RESULTS: Of those patients who had echocardiography (n = 447), 76 were considered to have a cardiac disorder (HHD, VHD, or LVSD) (n = 29). The mean readmission rate for HHD was 0.82, LVSD 0.62, and HHD 0.98. Patients with HHD were associated with a higher readmission rate of 1.8980 and for LVSD-1.24 times more likely. Those with a cardiac disorder were 13 % more likely to have a readmission within the next 36 months than those without a cardiac disorder. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients were found to have a cardiac disorder related to HF. Echocardiographic abnormalities were shown to be an independent risk factor for readmission.

Does Chondrocalcinosis Associate With a Distinct Radiographic Phenotype of Osteoarthritis in Knees and Hips? A Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine if knee chondrocalcinosis (CC), hip CC, or CC at distant joints associates with a distinct radiographic phenotype of osteoarthritis (OA) in knees or hips. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using data from the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) study (n = 3,170). All participants of the GOAL study had radiographs of knees, hands, and pelvis, which have been scored for CC and for individual radiographic features of OA. For this study, cases had radiographic OA and CC, and controls had radiographic OA without CC at the index joint. Data for knees and hips were analyzed separately. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the association between each radiographic phenotype and CC in joints with OA. Generalized estimating equation analysis was used to account for correlated data. RESULTS: Knee CC, and CC at any distant joint (without knee CC), associated with attrition in knee OA (adjusted odds ratio 2.32 [95% confidence interval 1.42-3.79] and 2.42 [1.41-4.13], respectively). There was no association between knee CC and osteophytosis or joint space narrowing (JSN) in knees with OA. Hip CC associated negatively with the summated osteophyte score and minimum JSN in hip OA. However, in hips with OA, CC did not associate with cysts or sclerosis. Additionally, distant joint CC did not associate with any structural change in hip OA. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that knee CC and CC at distant joints associate with attrition in knee OA, and hip CC associates with a milder hip OA phenotype. There was no evidence that CC associates with a hypertrophic OA phenotype.

Head injury in asylum seekers and refugees referred with psychological trauma.

OBJECTIVE: Individuals who seek asylum are frequently fleeing violent persecution and may experience head injury (HI). However, little is known about the prevalence of HI in asylum seekers and refugees (ASR) despite the potential for HI to significantly affect cognitive and emotional functioning and to compromise asylum outcomes. This preliminary study investigates the prevalence of HI in ASR referred to a complex psychological trauma service. METHOD: Participants were 115 adult ASR referred to a community psychological trauma service with moderate to severe mental health problems associated with psychological trauma. They were screened for a history of HI using a questionnaire developed for the study. Interpreters were used when required. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of HI was 51%. At least 38% of those with HI had a moderate-severe HI that could cause persisting disability. In 53% of those with HI, the cause was torture, human trafficking or domestic violence. Repeat HI can have cumulative effects on function; it was common, and was reported in 68% of those with HI. An injury to the head was not known to mental health clinicians prior to screening in 64% of cases. CONCLUSION: The emotional and cognitive consequences of HI in ASR may increase the vulnerability of this disadvantaged group, and can be associated with neurobehavioural problems affecting daily life and may compromise asylum outcomes. Routine screening for HI in ASR is needed, as are links to neuropsychology and brain injury services for advice, assessment and intervention.

Growth in stratospheric chlorine from short-lived chemicals not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.

We have developed a chemical mechanism describing the tropospheric degradation of chlorine containing very short-lived substances (VSLS). The scheme was included in a global atmospheric model and used to quantify the stratospheric injection of chlorine from anthropogenic VSLS ( ClyVSLS) between 2005 and 2013. By constraining the model with surface measurements of chloroform (CHCl3), dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), tetrachloroethene (C2Cl4), trichloroethene (C2HCl3), and 1,2-dichloroethane (CH2ClCH2Cl), we infer a 2013 ClyVSLS mixing ratio of 123 parts per trillion (ppt). Stratospheric injection of source gases dominates this supply, accounting for ∼83% of the total. The remainder comes from VSLS-derived organic products, phosgene (COCl2, 7%) and formyl chloride (CHClO, 2%), and also hydrogen chloride (HCl, 8%). Stratospheric ClyVSLS increased by ∼52% between 2005 and 2013, with a mean growth rate of 3.7 ppt Cl/yr. This increase is due to recent and ongoing growth in anthropogenic CH2Cl2-the most abundant chlorinated VSLS not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.

Synovial pathology detected on ultrasound correlates with the severity of radiographic knee osteoarthritis more than with symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: To [1] compare the frequency and severity of ultrasound (US) features in people with normal knees (controls), knee pain (KP), asymptomatic radiographic OA (ROA), and symptomatic OA (SROA), [2] examine relationships between US features, pain and radiographic severity, [3] explore the relationship between change in pain and US features over a 3-month period. METHOD: Community participants were recruited into a multiple group case-control study. All underwent assessment for pain, knee radiographs and US examination for effusion, synovial hypertrophy, popliteal cysts and power Doppler (PD) signal within the synovium. A 3-month follow-up was undertaken in over half of control and SROA participants. RESULTS: 243 participants were recruited (90 controls; 59 KP; 32 ROA; 62 SROA). Effusion and synovial hypertrophy were more common in ROA and SROA participants. Severity of effusion and synovial hypertrophy were greater in SROA compared to ROA (P < 0.05). Severity of US effusion and synovial hypertrophy were correlated with radiographic severity (r = 0.6 and r = 0.7, P < 0.01) but the relationship between pain severity and US features was weak (r = 0.3, P < 0.01). In SROA participants, pain severity did not change in tandem with a change in synovial hypertrophy over time. CONCLUSION: US abnormalities are common in OA. Effusion and synovial hypertrophy were moderately correlated with radiographic severity but the relationship with pain is less strong. The degree to which these features reflect "active inflammation" is questionable and they may be better considered as part of the total organ pathology in OA. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane. It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.85 to 1.4 (refs 4, 7-10). Here we determine the NH/SH ratio of OH with the help of methyl chloroform data (a proxy for OH concentrations) and an atmospheric transport model that accurately describes interhemispheric transport and modelled emissions. We find that for the years 2004-2011 the model predicts an annual mean NH-SH gradient of methyl chloroform that is a tight linear function of the modelled NH/SH ratio in annual mean OH. We estimate a NH/SH OH ratio of 0.97 ± 0.12 during this time period by optimizing global total emissions and mean OH abundance to fit methyl chloroform data from two surface-measurement networks and aircraft campaigns. Our findings suggest that top-down emission estimates of reactive species such as nitrogen oxides in key emitting countries in the NH that are based on a NH/SH OH ratio larger than 1 may be overestimated.

Association between low cortical bone mineral density, soft-tissue calcification, vascular calcification and chondrocalcinosis: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between bone mineral density (BMD), soft-tissue calcification, vascular calcification and chondrocalcinosis (CC). METHODS: A case-control study within the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) database (n=3170). All GOAL participants completed a questionnaire self-reporting current and early adult life exposures. Radiographs of knees, hands and pelvis were scored for osteoarthritis (OA), CC, pelvic vascular calcification, peri-articular knee calcification and metacarpal index (MCI-measure of cortical BMD). Calcaneal dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) was performed. Cases had radiographic CC, while controls did not have CC at any radiographed site. OR, 95% CI were used to measure association between risk factors and CC. Logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding and to estimate the adjusted OR (aOR). RESULTS: Low MCI (aOR (95%) for CC in 1st tertile 1.41 (1.06 to 1.89), with 3rd tertile referent), soft-tissue calcification (aOR (95%) for CC 1.81 (1.36 to 2.42)), and vascular calcification (aOR (95%) for CC 1.76 (1.13 to 2.75)) independently associated with CC. There was a negative association between body mass index and CC (aOR (95%) for CC in 2nd and 3rd tertiles 0.68 (0.53 to 0.89), and 0.67 (0.51 to 0.88) respectively with 1st tertile referent). Age and OA associated with CC. However, only age and low MCI independently associated with CC at >1 joint. Self-reported meniscectomy, low cortical BMD, vascular calcification, and soft-tissue calcification independently associated with knee CC. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies several novel associations of CC including low cortical BMD. The association between vascular calcification, soft-tissue calcification, and CC suggests a generalised constitutional predisposition to calcium crystal formation.

Submicron capsules extracted from rapeseed as novel flocculant agents for the treatment of turbid water.

Flocculation is an important step in water treatment as it is responsible for the separation of suspended solids and colloids. The currently used flocculants have certain limitations with respect to environmental impact and disposal as well as potentially being harmful to human health, which has encouraged the study of natural flocculants originating from oleaginous plants. Oil-bodies are individual small organelles in which oleaginous seeds store triacylglycerols reserves. In this article, the flocculant properties of oil-bodies have been investigated. Oil-bodies flocculate at pH 5, 7 and 9 and high ionic strength (100 mM NaCl) and it was demonstrated that their intact structure is necessary for the flocculation activity as treatment with protease K and diethyl ether, that remove the protein coat and the oil-core, respectively, dramatically decreased the flocculation activity. This study shows that oil-bodies have the potential to be novel, natural, sustainable, environmentally friendly and biodegradable flocculant candidates for water treatment.

Evidence of a systemic predisposition to chondrocalcinosis and association between chondrocalcinosis and osteoarthritis at distant joints: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there is a systemic predisposition to chondrocalcinosis (CC) and to examine the association between CC and osteoarthritis (OA) at distant joints. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study embedded in the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) database (n = 3,170). All GOAL participants have had radiographs of the knees, hands, and pelvis performed. These were scored for OA at the knee, hip, wrist, and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints and for CC at the knee, hip, wrist, and symphysis pubis joints and for MCP joint calcification. Systemic predisposition to CC was established using cluster analysis. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were used to examine the association between CC at the index and distant joints, CC and OA at the same joint, and index joint OA and distant joint CC. We adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index, and for distant joint OA, if required. RESULTS: Joints with CC clustered together. This was also observed when participants with OA were excluded from the analysis. CC at each joint was associated with CC at distant joints. Knee and wrist OA but not hip OA was associated with CC at the same joint. MCP joint OA was associated with MCP joint calcification. Knee OA was associated with CC at other joints, and this was independent of OA at the distant joint. There was no association between hip OA and distant joint CC. CONCLUSION: There is a systemic predisposition to the apparently sporadic CC. OA is associated with CC at the same joint and at distant joints, except hip OA, which is not associated with hip CC or with CC at distant joints.

Special feature: emergency medicine in Role 2 Afloat.

The Emergency Medicine aspects of care are described from recent experience of exercising a Role 2 Afloat team on board RFA CARDIGAN BAY. Lessons learned specific to this platform are outlined, as well as the more general issues of delivering Emergency Medicine in the maritime environment.

Application of whey protein micro-bead coatings for enhanced strength and probiotic protection during fruit juice storage and gastric incubation.

CONTEXT: Coated whey protein micro-beads may improve probiotic protection and provide delayed cell-release mechanisms. OBJECTIVE: Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG was encapsulated in whey protein micro-beads by droplet extrusion with coating via electrostatic deposition: primary-polysaccharide and secondary-whey protein. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Storage studies were performed in cranberry and pomegranate juice (pH 2.4; 28 days; 4 and 25°C) followed by simulated ex vivo porcine gastric (pH 1.6) and intestinal (pH 6.6) digestion. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: After storage and simulated gastro-intestinal digestion, free cells, cells suspended in protein and cells encapsulated in alginate micro-beads, illustrated complete probiotic mortality, while coated micro-beads enhanced probiotic viability after juice storage (8.6 ± 0.1 log(10)CFUmL(-1)). Beads also showed significant binding of hydrophobic molecules. Coated micro-beads illustrated high gastric survival (9.5 ± 0.1 log(10)CFUmL(-1)) with 30 min delayed intestinal release relative to non-coated micro-beads. CONCLUSIONS: Micro-bead coatings could be applied in delayed cell-release for targeted intestinal probiotic delivery.

The effect of prior bisphosphonate therapy on the subsequent therapeutic effects of strontium ranelate over 2 years.

UNLABELLED: Many osteoporotic women prescribed strontium ranelate have previously received bisphosphonates. Prior bisphosphonate use blunted the spinal bone mineral density (BMD) response for 6 months. Hip BMD was blunted to a degree for 2 years, although there was an overall increase in hip BMD in contrast to the heel where BMD did not increase. INTRODUCTION: Many osteoporotic women commenced on strontium ranelate have already received treatment with bisphosphonates. This study investigates whether prior bisphosphonate use impairs the subsequent therapeutic response to strontium ranelate. METHODS: Women were recruited who were either bisphosphonate naïve or currently receiving a bisphosphonate. All women received strontium ranelate and were followed up for 2 years. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty women were recruited. After 2 years, the bisphosphonate-naïve group had significant BMD increases of 8.9%, 6.0% and 6.4% at the spine, hip and heel, respectively. In the prior bisphosphonate group, BMD increased significantly at the spine (4.0%) and hip (2.5%) but not at the heel. At all time points at all sites, the BMD increase was greater in the bisphosphonate-naïve group. BMD at the spine did not increase during the first 6 months in the prior bisphosphonate group but then increased in parallel with the bisphosphonate-naïve group. In contrast, the difference between the two groups in hip BMD continued to increase throughout the 2 years. P1NP was suppressed in the prior bisphosphonate group for the first 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: After bisphosphonate exposure, the BMD response to strontium ranelate is blunted for only 6 months at the spine. At the hip, a degree of blunting was observed over 2 years, although there was an overall increase in hip BMD in contrast to the heel where no increase in BMD was observed.