Association of Incident Cardiovascular Disease With Time Course and Cumulative Exposure to Multiple Risk Factors.

BACKGROUND: The quantitative relationship of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) to lifetime cumulative risk factor exposure is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: Using CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study data, we examined the quantitative associations of cumulative exposure over time to multiple, simultaneously operating risk factors with CVD incidence and the incidence of its components. METHODS: Regression models were developed quantifying the influence of the time course and severity of multiple CVD risk factors, operating simultaneously, on risk of incident CVD. The outcomes were incident CVD and the incidence of its components: coronary heart disease, stroke, and congestive heart failure. RESULTS: Our study included 4,958 asymptomatic adults enrolled in CARDIA from 1985 to 1986 (ages 18 to 30 years) who were followed for 30 years. Risk of incident CVD depends on the time course and severity of a series of independent risk factors, the impact of which is mediated by their effects on individual CVD components after age 40 years. Cumulative exposure (AUC vs time) to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides was independently associated with risk of incident CVD. Of the blood pressure variables, areas under the mean arterial pressure vs time curve and the pulse pressure vs time curve were strongly and independently associated with incident CVD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative description of the link between risk factors and CVD informs the construction of individualized CVD mitigation strategies, design of primary prevention trials, and assessment of public health impact of risk factor-based interventions.

Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Healthy Longevity: Findings From the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project Cohorts.

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but previous studies have mostly been limited to a single exam, a single cohort, a short follow-up period, or a limited number of outcomes. This study aimed to assess the association of 10-year cumulative systolic blood pressure (BP) in middle age with long-term risk of any CVD, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, all-cause mortality, and healthy longevity. Individuals (11 502) from 5 racially/ethnically diverse US community-based cohorts were included in this study once they met all the inclusion criteria: ≥10 year of observation in the included cohort, aged 45 to 60 years, free of CVD, and had ≥3 visits with BP exams over the preceding 10 years. For each participant, systolic BP level was predicted for each year of the 10-year prior inclusion, based on the available exams (median of 4.0; spread over, 9.1 [range, 7.2-10] years). Lower 10-year cumulative systolic BP was associated with 4.1 years longer survival and 5.4 years later onset of CVD, resulting in living longer life with a shorter period with morbidity. Models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, and index systolic BP demonstrated associations of 10-year cumulative systolic BP (per 130 mm Hg×year change, the threshold for stage-1 hypertension) with CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28 [95% CI, 1.20-1.36]), coronary heart disease (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19-1.40]), stroke (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.20-1.47]), heart failure (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.23]), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]). These findings emphasize the importance of 10-year cumulative systolic BP as a risk factor to CVD, above and beyond current systolic BP.

Time Course of LDL Cholesterol Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Event Risk.

BACKGROUND: Incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases with increasing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentration and exposure duration. Area under the LDL-C versus age curve is a possible risk parameter. Data-based demonstration of this metric is unavailable and whether the time course of area accumulation modulates risk is unknown. OBJECTIVES: Using CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study data, we assessed the relationship of area under LDL-C versus age curve to incident CVD event risk and modulation of risk by time course of area accumulation-whether risk increase for the same area increment is different at different ages. METHODS: This prospective study included 4,958 asymptomatic adults age 18 to 30 years enrolled from 1985 to 1986. The outcome was a composite of nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, transient ischemic attack, heart failure hospitalization, cardiac revascularization, peripheral arterial disease intervention, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: During a median 16-year follow-up after age 40 years, 275 participants had an incident CVD event. After adjustment for sex, race, and traditional risk factors, both area under LDL-C versus age curve and time course of area accumulation (slope of LDL-C curve) were significantly associated with CVD event risk (hazard ratio: 1.053; p < 0.0001 per 100 mg/dl × years; hazard ratio: 0.797 per mg/dl/year; p = 0.045, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Incident CVD event risk depends on cumulative prior exposure to LDL-C and, independently, time course of area accumulation. The same area accumulated at a younger age, compared with older age, resulted in a greater risk increase, emphasizing the importance of optimal LDL-C control starting early in life.

Stroke Rates Following Surgical Versus Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are used for coronary revascularization in patients with multivessel and left main coronary artery disease. Stroke is among the most feared complications of revascularization. Due to its infrequency, studies with large numbers of patients are required to detect differences in stroke rates between CABG and PCI. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to compare rates of stroke after CABG and PCI and the impact of procedural stroke on long-term mortality. METHODS: We performed a collaborative individual patient-data pooled analysis of 11 randomized clinical trials comparing CABG with PCI using stents; ERACI II (Argentine Randomized Study: Coronary Angioplasty With Stenting Versus Coronary Bypass Surgery in Patients With Multiple Vessel Disease) (n = 450), ARTS (Arterial Revascularization Therapy Study) (n = 1,205), MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) (n = 408), SoS (Stent or Surgery) trial (n = 988), SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) trial (n = 1,800), PRECOMBAT (Bypass Surgery Versus Angioplasty Using Sirolimus-Eluting Stent in Patients With Left Main Coronary Artery Disease) trial (n = 600), FREEDOM (Comparison of Two Treatments for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease in Individuals With Diabetes) trial (n = 1,900), VA CARDS (Coronary Artery Revascularization in Diabetes) (n = 198), BEST (Bypass Surgery Versus Everolimus-Eluting Stent Implantation for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease) (n = 880), NOBLE (Percutaneous Coronary Angioplasty Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Treatment of Unprotected Left Main Stenosis) trial (n = 1,184), and EXCEL (Evaluation of Xience Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization) trial (n = 1,905). The 30-day and 5-year stroke rates were compared between CABG and PCI using a random effects Cox proportional hazards model, stratified by trial. The impact of stroke on 5-year mortality was explored. RESULTS: The analysis included 11,518 patients randomly assigned to PCI (n = 5,753) or CABG (n = 5,765) with a mean follow-up of 3.8 ± 1.4 years during which a total of 293 strokes occurred. At 30 days, the rate of stroke was 0.4% after PCI and 1.1% after CABG (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.33; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20 to 0.53; p < 0.001). At 5-year follow-up, stroke remained significantly lower after PCI than after CABG (2.6% vs. 3.2%; HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.97; p = 0.027). Rates of stroke between 31 days and 5 years were comparable: 2.2% after PCI versus 2.1% after CABG (HR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.38; p = 0.72). No significant interactions between treatment and baseline clinical or angiographic variables for the 5-year rate of stroke were present, except for diabetic patients (PCI: 2.6% vs. CABG: 4.9%) and nondiabetic patients (PCI: 2.6% vs. CABG: 2.4%) (p for interaction = 0.004). Patients who experienced a stroke within 30 days of the procedure had significantly higher 5-year mortality versus those without a stroke, both after PCI (45.7% vs. 11.1%, p < 0.001) and CABG (41.5% vs. 8.9%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This individual patient-data pooled analysis demonstrates that 5-year stroke rates are significantly lower after PCI compared with CABG, driven by a reduced risk of stroke in the 30-day post-procedural period but a similar risk of stroke between 31 days and 5 years. The greater risk of stroke after CABG compared with PCI was confined to patients with multivessel disease and diabetes. Five-year mortality was markedly higher for patients experiencing a stroke within 30 days after revascularization.

2017 Cardiovascular and Stroke Endpoint Definitions for Clinical Trials.

This publication describes uniform definitions for cardiovascular and stroke outcomes developed by the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA established the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative in 2009 to simplify the design and conduct of clinical trials intended to support marketing applications. The writing committee recognizes that these definitions may be used in other types of clinical trials and clinical care processes where appropriate. Use of these definitions at the FDA has enhanced the ability to aggregate data within and across medical product development programs, conduct meta-analyses to evaluate cardiovascular safety, integrate data from multiple trials, and compare effectiveness of drugs and devices. Further study is needed to determine whether prospective data collection using these common definitions improves the design, conduct, and interpretability of the results of clinical trials.

Mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting versus percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting for coronary artery disease: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Numerous randomised trials have compared coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients with coronary artery disease. However, no studies have been powered to detect a difference in mortality between the revascularisation strategies. METHODS: We did a systematic review up to July 19, 2017, to identify randomised clinical trials comparing CABG with PCI using stents. Eligible studies included patients with multivessel or left main coronary artery disease who did not present with acute myocardial infarction, did PCI with stents (bare-metal or drug-eluting), and had more than 1 year of follow-up for all-cause mortality. In a collaborative, pooled analysis of individual patient data from the identified trials, we estimated all-cause mortality up to 5 years using Kaplan-Meier analyses and compared PCI with CABG using a random-effects Cox proportional-hazards model stratified by trial. Consistency of treatment effect was explored in subgroup analyses, with subgroups defined according to baseline clinical and anatomical characteristics. FINDINGS: We included 11 randomised trials involving 11 518 patients selected by heart teams who were assigned to PCI (n=5753) or to CABG (n=5765). 976 patients died over a mean follow-up of 3·8 years (SD 1·4). Mean Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score was 26·0 (SD 9·5), with 1798 (22·1%) of 8138 patients having a SYNTAX score of 33 or higher. 5 year all-cause mortality was 11·2% after PCI and 9·2% after CABG (hazard ratio [HR] 1·20, 95% CI 1·06-1·37; p=0·0038). 5 year all-cause mortality was significantly different between the interventions in patients with multivessel disease (11·5% after PCI vs 8·9% after CABG; HR 1·28, 95% CI 1·09-1·49; p=0·0019), including in those with diabetes (15·5% vs 10·0%; 1·48, 1·19-1·84; p=0·0004), but not in those without diabetes (8·7% vs 8·0%; 1·08, 0·86-1·36; p=0·49). SYNTAX score had a significant effect on the difference between the interventions in multivessel disease. 5 year all-cause mortality was similar between the interventions in patients with left main disease (10·7% after PCI vs 10·5% after CABG; 1·07, 0·87-1·33; p=0·52), regardless of diabetes status and SYNTAX score. INTERPRETATION: CABG had a mortality benefit over PCI in patients with multivessel disease, particularly those with diabetes and higher coronary complexity. No benefit for CABG over PCI was seen in patients with left main disease. Longer follow-up is needed to better define mortality differences between the revascularisation strategies. FUNDING: None.

2017 Cardiovascular and Stroke Endpoint Definitions for Clinical Trials.

This publication describes uniform definitions for cardiovascular and stroke outcomes developed by the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA established the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative in 2009 to simplify the design and conduct of clinical trials intended to support marketing applications. The writing committee recognizes that these definitions may be used in other types of clinical trials and clinical care processes where appropriate. Use of these definitions at the FDA has enhanced the ability to aggregate data within and across medical product development programs, conduct meta-analyses to evaluate cardiovascular safety, integrate data from multiple trials, and compare effectiveness of drugs and devices. Further study is needed to determine whether prospective data collection using these common definitions improves the design, conduct, and interpretability of the results of clinical trials.

Next Steps in Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease: Rationale for and Design of the ECAD Trial.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, are the most frequent cause of death and major disability in the world. Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association primary prevention guidelines are mainly on the basis of randomized controlled trials of statin-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering therapy for primary prevention of ASCVD events. Despite the clear demonstration of statin-based LDL-C lowering, substantial 10-year and lifetime risks of incident ASCVD continue. Although the 10-year risk is low in young and middle-aged adults who would not be treated according to current guidelines, they ultimately account for most incident ASCVD. If statin-based LDL-C lowering were initiated in them at an age before complex coronary plaques are common in the population, a substantial reduction in lifetime risk of incident coronary heart disease might be achieved. We examine this hypothesis and introduce the design of a currently recruiting trial to address it. (Eliminate Coronary Artery Disease [ECAD]; NCT02245087).

Predictors of stroke associated with coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel coronary artery disease.

This study assesses demographic and clinical variables associated with perioperative and late stroke in diabetes mellitus patients after multivessel coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Future Revascularization Evaluation in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease (FREEDOM) is the largest randomized trial of diabetic patients undergoing multivessel CABG. FREEDOM patients had improved survival free of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke and increased overall survival after CABG compared to percutaneous intervention. However, the stroke rate was greater following CABG than percutaneous intervention. We studied predictors of stroke in CABG-treated patients analyzing separately overall, perioperative (≤30 days after surgery), and late (>30 days after surgery) stroke. For long-term outcomes (overall stroke and late stroke), Cox proportional hazards regression was used, accounting for time to event, and logistic regression was used for perioperative stroke. Independent perioperative stroke predictors were previous stroke (odds ratio [OR] 6.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43 to 33.96; p = 0.02), warfarin use (OR 10.26, 95% CI 1.10 to 96.03; p = 0.02), and surgery outside the United States or Canada (OR 9.81, 95% CI 1.28 to 75.40; p = 0.03). Independent late stroke predictors: renal insufficiency (hazard ratio [HR] 3.57, 95% CI 1.01 to 12.64; p = 0.048), baseline low-density lipoprotein ≥105 mg/dl (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.19 to 9.02; p = 0.02), and baseline diastolic blood pressure (each 1 mm Hg increase reduces stroke hazard by 5%; HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.99; p = 0.03). There was no overlap between predictors of perioperative versus late stroke. In conclusion, late post-CABG strokes were associated with well-described risk factors. Nearly half of the strokes were perioperative. Independent risk factors for perioperative stroke: previous stroke, previous warfarin use, and CABG performed outside the United States or Canada.

Left ventricular assist devices improve functional class without normalizing peak oxygen consumption.

Heart failure patients supported with left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) enjoy improvements in functional capacity and quality of life. We reasoned that such improvements in exercise capacity should be reflected in an objective increase in peak oxygen consumption as measured by cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). We performed a retrospective review of all recipients of a HeartMate II LVAD at our center from June 2009 to June 2012 who completed CPET. Thirty-seven patients completed CPET an average of 6 months after implantation. Of these, 10 patients had CPET performed before LVAD implantation. Overall, 91.4% of patients improved by at least two New York Heart Association classes, with 34.3% improving by three classes. Postimplant VO2 max was significantly less than predicted (14.7 ± 3.1 vs. 29.8 ± 6.6 ml/kg/min, p < 0.001; percent-predicted 51% ± 12%). For 10 patients with pre- and post-implant studies, VO2 max increased significantly from 11.6 ± 5.0 to 15.4 ± 3.9 ml/kg/min (p = 0.009). VO2 max improves significantly with LVAD support but fails to normalize to predicted values, in spite of improvements in functional class. The severity of preimplantation heart failure does not associate with the degree of VO2 max improvement.

Clinical outcome endpoints in heart failure trials: a European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Association consensus document.

Endpoint selection is a critically important step in clinical trial design. It poses major challenges for investigators, regulators, and study sponsors, and it also has important clinical and practical implications for physicians and patients. Clinical outcomes of interest in heart failure trials include all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, relevant non-fatal morbidity (e.g., all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization), composites capturing both morbidity and mortality, safety, symptoms, functional capacity, and patient-reported outcomes. Each of these endpoints has strengths and weaknesses that create controversies regarding which is most appropriate in terms of clinical importance, sensitivity, reliability, and consistency. Not surprisingly, a lack of consensus exists within the scientific community regarding the optimal endpoint(s) for both acute and chronic heart failure trials. In an effort to address these issues, the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (HFA-ESC) convened a group of expert heart failure clinical investigators, biostatisticians, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry scientists (Nice, France, 12-13 February 2012) to evaluate the challenges of defining heart failure endpoints in clinical trials and to develop a consensus framework. This report summarizes the group's recommendations for achieving common views on heart failure endpoints in clinical trials.

Prognostic value of cardiac troponin I measured with a highly sensitive assay in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to assess the prognostic value of cardiac troponin I levels, measured with a new high-sensitivity assay, in low-risk patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and to contrast its determinants and prognostic merit with that of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT). BACKGROUND: New, highly sensitive cardiac troponin assays permit evaluation of the association between troponin levels and outcomes in patients with stable CAD. METHODS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-TnI) levels at baseline were assessed in 3,623 patients with stable CAD and preserved systolic function enrolled in the PEACE (Prevention of Events With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor Therapy) trial. RESULTS: In total, 98.5% of patients had hs-TnI concentrations higher than the detection level (1.2 pg/ml). hs-TnI correlated moderately with hs-TnT (r = 0.44) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (r = 0.39) but only weakly with age (r = 0.17) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (r = -0.11). During a median follow-up period of 5.2 years, 203 patients died of cardiovascular causes or were hospitalized for heart failure, and 209 patients had nonfatal myocardial infarctions. In analyses adjusting for conventional risk markers, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and hs-TnT, hs-TnI levels in the fourth compared with the 3 lower quartiles were associated with the incidence of cardiovascular death or heart failure (hazard ratio: 1.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.30 to 2.61; p < 0.001). [corrected]. There was a [corrected] weaker association with nonfatal myocardial infarction (hazard ratio: 1.37; 95% confidence interval: 0.98 to 1.92; p = 0.066). [corrected]. In the same models, hs-TnT concentrations were associated with the incidence of cardiovascular death or heart failure but not of myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable CAD, hs-TnI concentrations are associated with cardiovascular risk independently of conventional risk markers and hs-TnT. (Prevention of Events With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor Therapy [PEACE]; NCT00000558).