A system dynamics modelling and analytical framework for imported dengue outbreak surveillance and risk mapping.

System Dynamics (SD) models have been used to understand complex, multi-faceted dengue transmission dynamics, but a gap persists between research and actionable public health tools for decision-making. Spain is an at-risk country of imported dengue outbreaks, but only qualitative assessments are available to guide public health action and control. We propose a modular SD model combining temperature-dependent vector population, transmission parameters, and epidemiological interactions to simulate outbreaks from imported cases accounting for heterogeneous local climate-related transmission patterns. Under our assumptions, 15 provinces sustain vector populations capable of generating outbreaks from imported cases, with heterogeneous risk profiles regarding seasonality, magnitude and risk window shifting from late Spring to early Autum. Results being relative to given vector-to-human populations allow flexibility when translating outcomes between geographic scales. The model and the framework are meant to serve public health by incorporating transmission dynamics and quantitative-qualitative input to the evidence-based decision-making chain. It is a flexible tool that can easily adapt to changing contexts, parametrizations and epidemiological settings thanks to the modular approach.

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019.

Dengue has broadened its global distribution substantially in the past two decades, and many endemic areas are experiencing increases in incidence. The Dominican Republic recently experienced its two largest outbreaks to date with 16,836 reported cases in 2015 and 20,123 reported cases in 2019. With continued increases in dengue transmission, developing tools to better prepare healthcare systems and mosquito control agencies is of critical importance. Before such tools can be developed, however, we must first better understand potential drivers of dengue transmission. To that end, we focus in this paper on determining relationships between climate variables and dengue transmission with an emphasis on eight provinces and the capital city of the Dominican Republic in the period 2015-2019. We present summary statistics for dengue cases, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in this period, and we conduct an analysis of correlated lags between climate variables and dengue cases as well as correlated lags among dengue cases in each of the nine locations. We find that the southwestern province of Barahona had the largest dengue incidence in both 2015 and 2019. Among all climate variables considered, lags between relative humidity variables and dengue cases were the most frequently correlated. We found that most locations had significant correlations with cases in other locations at lags of zero weeks. These results can be used to improve predictive models of dengue transmission in the country.

Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease.

Human mobility drives the geographical diffusion of infectious diseases at different scales, but few studies focus on mobility itself. Using publicly available data from Spain, we define a Mobility Matrix that captures constant flows between provinces by using a distance-like measure of effective distance to build a network model with the 52 provinces and 135 relevant edges. Madrid, Valladolid and Araba/Álaba are the most relevant nodes in terms of degree and strength. The shortest routes (most likely path between two points) between all provinces are calculated. A total of 7 mobility communities were found with a modularity of 63%, and a relationship was established with a cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in 14 days (CI14) during the study period. In conclusion, mobility patterns in Spain are governed by a small number of high-flow connections that remain constant in time and seem unaffected by seasonality or restrictions. Most of the travels happen within communities that do not completely represent political borders, and a wave-like spreading pattern with occasional long-distance jumps (small-world properties) can be identified. This information can be incorporated into preparedness and response plans targeting locations that are at risk of contagion preventively, underscoring the importance of coordination between administrations when addressing health emergencies.

Effectiveness and equity of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusions in pediatric type 1 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.

AIMS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomized studies (NRS) to assess the effectiveness and equity of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusions (CSII) versus multiple-daily injections (MDI) on glycemic outcomes. METHODS: Searches were conducted between 2000 and 2019 in MEDLINE, CENTRAL, EMBASE and HTA. Included studies compared the CSII vs MDI in children and young people (CYP) ≤ 20 years with type 1 diabetes. Two independent reviewers screened the articles, extracted the data, assessed the risk of bias, evaluated the quality of evidence, and identified equity data. Results were pooled with a random-effects model. RESULTS: Of the 578 articles screened, 16 RCT (545 CYP on CSII) and 70 NRS (73253 on CSII) were included in the meta-analysis. There was moderate-level evidence that the CSII lower HbA1c in RCT (pooled mean difference [MD]: -0.22%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33, -0.11%; I2:34%) and insufficient in NRS (pooled MD: -0.45%; 95%CI: -0.52, -0.38%; I2:99%). The pooled incidence rate ratio of severe hypoglycemia on CSII vs MDI in RCT was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.55, 1.37; I2:0%; low-level evidence), and 0.71 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.81; I2:57%, insufficient evidence) in NRS. Health-related quality of life presented insufficient evidence. Equity data were scarcely reported. CONCLUSIONS: CSII modestly lower HbA1c when compared with MDI. Current literature does not provide adequate data on other glycemic outcomes. Future assessment on diabetes technology should include individual and area-level socioeconomic data. The study protocol was pre-registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018116474).

Monitoring inequality changes in full immunization coverage in infants in Latin America and the Caribbean.

OBJECTIVE: To compare inequalities in full infant vaccination coverage at two different time points between 1992 and 2016 in Latin American and Caribbean countries. METHODS: Analysis is based on recent available data from Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, and Reproductive Health Surveys conducted in 18 countries between 1992 and 2016. Full immunization data from children 12-23 months of age were disaggregated by wealth quintile. Absolute and relative inequalities between the richest and the poorest quintile were measured. Differences were measured for 14 countries with data available for two time points. Significance was determined using 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The overall median full immunization coverage was 69.9%. Approximately one-third of the countries have a high-income inequality gap, with a median difference of 5.6 percentage points in 8 of 18 countries. Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, and Peru have achieved the greatest progress in improving coverage among the poorest quintiles of their population in recent years. CONCLUSION: Full immunization coverage in the countries in the study shows higher-income inequality gaps that are not seen by observing national coverage only, but these differences appear to be reduced over time. Actions monitoring immunization coverage based on income inequalities should be considered for inclusion in the assessment of public health policies to appropriately reduce the gaps in immunization for infants in the lowest-income quintile.

Monitoring inequality changes in full immunization coverage in infants in Latin America and the Caribbean

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To compare inequalities in full infant vaccination coverage at two different time points between 1992 and 2016 in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Methods. Analysis is based on recent available data from Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, and Reproductive Health Surveys conducted in 18 countries between 1992 and 2016. Full immunization data from children 12–23 months of age were disaggregated by wealth quintile. Absolute and relative inequalities between the richest and the poorest quintile were measured. Differences were measured for 14 countries with data available for two time points. Significance was determined using 95% confidence intervals. Results. The overall median full immunization coverage was 69.9%. Approximately one-third of the countries have a high-income inequality gap, with a median difference of 5.6 percentage points in 8 of 18 countries. Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, and Peru have achieved the greatest progress in improving coverage among the poorest quintiles of their population in recent years. Conclusion. Full immunization coverage in the countries in the study shows higher-income inequality gaps that are not seen by observing national coverage only, but these differences appear to be reduced over time. Actions monitoring immunization coverage based on income inequalities should be considered for inclusion in the assessment of public health policies to appropriately reduce the gaps in immunization for infants in the lowest-income quintile.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Comparar las desigualdades en cuanto a la cobertura de la inmunización completa en los lactantes en países de América Latina y el Caribe. en dos puntos diferentes en el tiempo: 1992 y el 2016. Métodos. El análisis se basa en datos obtenidos recientemente a partir de las encuestas demográficas y de salud, las encuestas de grupos de indicadores múltiples y las encuestas de salud reproductiva realizadas en 18 países entre 1992 y el 2016. Los datos de la cobertura de la inmunización completa en lactantes (de 12 a 23 meses de edad) fueron desglosados por quintil de riqueza. Se midieron las desigualdades absolutas y relativas entre el quintil de ingresos más altos y el quintil de ingresos más bajos. Se midieron las diferencias en 14 países a partir de los datos disponibles para dos puntos en el tiempo. Se determinó la significación mediante intervalos de confianza del 95%. Resultados. La mediana general de los niveles de cobertura de inmunización total fue de 69,9%. Aproximadamente un tercio de los países presentan una brecha de desigualdad con respecto al quintil de ingresos más altos, con una diferencia entre medianas de 5,6 puntos porcentuales en 8 de 18 países. En los últimos años, Bolivia, Colombia, Perú y El Salvador han logrado el mayor avance en cuanto a la mejora de la cobertura en términos de la población correspondiente al quintil de ingresos más bajos. Conclusiones. En este estudio, la cobertura de inmunización completa en los países muestra brechas de desigualdad con respecto al quintil de ingresos más altos que no se evidencian con tan solo observar el nivel de cobertura a nivel nacional. Sin embargo, estas desigualdades parecen disminuir con el transcurso del tiempo. Debería considerarse la posibilidad de que las medidas de seguimiento de la cobertura de inmunización con base en las desigualdades de los ingresos sean incluidas en la evaluación de las políticas de salud pública. Esto permitiría reducir de manera apropiada las brechas en cuanto a la inmunización en los lactantes en el quintil de ingresos más bajos.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Comparar as desigualdades na cobertura vacinal completa infantil em dois momentos distintos entre 1992 e 2016 em países da América Latina e Caribe. Métodos. A análise se baseou em dados recentes provenientes de Pesquisas Nacionais de Demografia e Saúde, Inquéritos por Conglomerados de Múltiplos Indicadores e Pesquisas de Saúde Reprodutiva realizados em 18 países entre 1992 e 2016. Os dados de cobertura vacinal completa em crianças entre 12 e 23 meses de idade foram desagregados por quintis de renda. Foi mensurada a desigualdade absoluta e relativa entre os quintis de maior e menor renda. A magnitude destas diferenças foi avaliada em 14 países com dados disponíveis nos dois momentos considerados. O nível de significância foi determinado com o uso de intervalos de confiança de 95%. Resultados. A mediana global de cobertura vacinal completa foi de 69,9%. Cerca de um terço dos países apresenta alto nível de desigualdade de renda, com uma diferença mediana de 5,6 pontos percentuais em 8 dos 18 países. Bolívia, Colômbia, El Salvador e Peru obtiveram maior avanço nos últimos anos com o aumento do nível de cobertura na população nos quintis de menor renda destes países. Conclusões. A análise da cobertura vacinal completa infantil nos países estudados indica altos níveis de desigualdade de renda que não são evidentes quando se observa somente a cobertura nacional. No entanto, estas diferenças parecem que vêm diminuindo. Deve-se considerar incluir ações de monitoramento da cobertura vacinal com base nas desigualdades de renda ao se avaliar as políticas de saúde pública a fim de reduzir apropriadamente a disparidade na cobertura vacinal de lactentes pertencentes ao quintil de menor renda.

Monitoring inequality changes in full immunization coverage in infants in Latin America and the Caribbean / Seguimiento de los cambios en las desigualdades con respecto a la cobertura de la inmunización completa en lactantes en América Latina y el Caribe / Monitoramento do avanço das desigualdades na cobertura vacinal completa em lactentes na América Latina e no Caribe

ABSTRACT Objective. To compare inequalities in full infant vaccination coverage at two different time points between 1992 and 2016 in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Methods. Analysis is based on recent available data from Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, and Reproductive Health Surveys conducted in 18 countries between 1992 and 2016. Full immunization data from children 12-23 months of age were disaggregated by wealth quintile. Absolute and relative inequalities between the richest and the poorest quintile were measured. Differences were measured for 14 countries with data available for two time points. Significance was determined using 95% confidence intervals. Results. The overall median full immunization coverage was 69.9%. Approximately one-third of the countries have a high-income inequality gap, with a median difference of 5.6 percentage points in 8 of 18 countries. Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, and Peru have achieved the greatest progress in improving coverage among the poorest quintiles of their population in recent years. Conclusion. Full immunization coverage in the countries in the study shows higher-income inequality gaps that are not seen by observing national coverage only, but these differences appear to be reduced over time. Actions monitoring immunization coverage based on income inequalities should be considered for inclusion in the assessment of public health policies to appropriately reduce the gaps in immunization for infants in the lowest-income quintile.(AU)

RESUMEN Objetivo. Comparar las desigualdades en cuanto a la cobertura de la inmunización completa en los lactantes en países de América Latina y el Caribe. en dos puntos diferentes en el tiempo: 1992 y el 2016. Métodos. El análisis se basa en datos obtenidos recientemente a partir de las encuestas demográficas y de salud, las encuestas de grupos de indicadores múltiples y las encuestas de salud reproductiva realizadas en 18 países entre 1992 y el 2016. Los datos de la cobertura de la inmunización completa en lactantes (de 12 a 23 meses de edad) fueron desglosados por quintil de riqueza. Se midieron las desigualdades absolutas y relativas entre el quintil de ingresos más altos y el quintil de ingresos más bajos. Se midieron las diferencias en 14 países a partir de los datos disponibles para dos puntos en el tiempo. Se determinó la significación mediante intervalos de confianza del 95%. Resultados. La mediana general de los niveles de cobertura de inmunización total fue de 69,9%. Aproximadamente un tercio de los países presentan una brecha de desigualdad con respecto al quintil de ingresos más altos, con una diferencia entre medianas de 5,6 puntos porcentuales en 8 de 18 países. En los últimos años, Bolivia, Colombia, Perú y El Salvador han logrado el mayor avance en cuanto a la mejora de la cobertura en términos de la población correspondiente al quintil de ingresos más bajos. Conclusiones. En este estudio, la cobertura de inmunización completa en los países muestra brechas de desigualdad con respecto al quintil de ingresos más altos que no se evidencian con tan solo observar el nivel de cobertura a nivel nacional. Sin embargo, estas desigualdades parecen disminuir con el transcurso del tiempo. Debería considerarse la posibilidad de que las medidas de seguimiento de la cobertura de inmunización con base en las desigualdades de los ingresos sean incluidas en la evaluación de las políticas de salud pública. Esto permitiría reducir de manera apropiada las brechas en cuanto a la inmunización en los lactantes en el quintil de ingresos más bajos.(AU)

RESUMO Objetivo. Comparar as desigualdades na cobertura vacinal completa infantil em dois momentos distintos entre 1992 e 2016 em países da América Latina e Caribe. Métodos. A análise se baseou em dados recentes provenientes de Pesquisas Nacionais de Demografia e Saúde, Inquéritos por Conglomerados de Múltiplos Indicadores e Pesquisas de Saúde Reprodutiva realizados em 18 países entre 1992 e 2016. Os dados de cobertura vacinal completa em crianças entre 12 e 23 meses de idade foram desagregados por quintis de renda. Foi mensurada a desigualdade absoluta e relativa entre os quintis de maior e menor renda. A magnitude destas diferenças foi avaliada em 14 países com dados disponíveis nos dois momentos considerados. O nível de significância foi determinado com o uso de intervalos de confiança de 95%. Resultados. A mediana global de cobertura vacinal completa foi de 69,9%. Cerca de um terço dos países apresenta alto nível de desigualdade de renda, com uma diferença mediana de 5,6 pontos percentuais em 8 dos 18 países. Bolívia, Colômbia, El Salvador e Peru obtiveram maior avanço nos últimos anos com o aumento do nível de cobertura na população nos quintis de menor renda destes países. Conclusões. A análise da cobertura vacinal completa infantil nos países estudados indica altos níveis de desigualdade de renda que não são evidentes quando se observa somente a cobertura nacional. No entanto, estas diferenças parecem que vêm diminuindo. Deve-se considerar incluir ações de monitoramento da cobertura vacinal com base nas desigualdades de renda ao se avaliar as políticas de saúde pública a fim de reduzir apropriadamente a disparidade na cobertura vacinal de lactentes pertencentes ao quintil de menor renda.(AU)

New insulin delivery devices and glycemic outcomes in young patients with type 1 diabetes: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Optimal type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) care requires lifelong appropriate insulin treatment, which can be provided either by multiple daily injections (MDI) of insulin or by continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII). An increasing number of trials and previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMA) have compared both CSII and MDI but have provided limited information on equity and fairness regarding access to, and the effect of, those insulin devices. This study protocol proposes a clear and transparent methodology for conducting a SRMA of the literature (1) to assess the effect of CSII versus MDI on glycemic and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) among young patients with T1D and (2) to identify health inequalities in the use of CSII. METHODS: This protocol was developed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P), the PRISMA-E (PRISMA-Equity 2012 Guidelines), and the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook. We will include randomized clinical trials and non-randomized studies published between January 2000 and June 2019 to assess the effectiveness of CSII versus MDI on glycemic and PROs in young patients with T1D. To assess health inequality among those who received CSII, we will use the PROGRESS framework. To gather relevant studies, a search will be conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database. We will select studies that compared glycemic outcomes (the glycosylated hemoglobin values, severe hypoglycemia episodes, diabetic ketoacidosis events, and/or time spent in range or in hyper-hypoglycemia), and health-related quality of life, as a PRO, between therapies. Screening and selection of studies will be conducted independently by two researchers. Subgroup analyses will be performed according to age group, length of follow-up, and the use of adjunctive technological therapies that might influence glycemic outcomes. DISCUSSION: Studies of the average effects of CSII versus MDI may have not assessed their impact on health equity, as some intended populations have been excluded. Therefore, this study will address health equity issues when assessing effects of CSII. The results will be published in a peer-review journal. Ethics approval will not be needed. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018116474.

Analysis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Spain: 2007-2012 National Study / Análisis de la tuberculosis extrapulmonar en España: Estudio Nacional 2007-2012

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to study the epidemiological characteristics of the extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in relation to pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) from 2007 to 2012 in Spain, and plot its trend across the same period. METHODS: We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study in which the following variables were analysed: age; sex; disease site; history of antituberculosis treatment; country of birth; presence of HIV infection; and culture results. Age-related differences were ascertained using the test of comparison of proportions, and crude and adjusted ORs were calculated using linear regression models. RESULTS: Of the total of 44,050 cases of tuberculosis reported in the period 2007-2012 and included in the study, 31,508 (71.53%) were pulmonary tuberculosis and 12,542 (28.47%) were EPTB. EPTB rates decreased across all age groups. The main EPTB risk factor was presence of HIV infection (OR 1.39). Persons aged under 65 years had a lower risk of EPTB. CONCLUSIONS: Although persons aged over 65 years displayed the highest incidence, there was nevertheless a downward trend across all age groups. Whereas children showed a significant decrease in tuberculous meningitis, this was not so for all extrapulmonary forms. EPTB rates among persons born outside Spain were much higher than those among the Spanish population

INTRODUCCIÓN: Estudiamos las características epidemiológicas de la tuberculosis extrapulmonar (TBEP) en comparación con la tuberculosis pulmonar del 2007 al 2012 en España, y argumentamos las tendencias durante el mismo período. MÉTODOS: Realizamos un estudio transversal analítico en el cual analizamos las siguientes variables: edad, sexo, lugar de la tuberculosis, historia de tratamiento antituberculosis, país de nacimiento, presencia de infección por VIH y resultados de cultivo. Se realizó el test de comparación de proporciones para determinar los diferentes grupos de edad y calcular las OR brutas y ajustadas usando modelos de regresión lineal. RESULTADOS: De un total de 44,050 casos de tuberculosis reportados en el período 2007-2012 e incluidos en el estudio, 31,508 (71.53%) fueron tuberculosis pulmonar y 12,542 (28.47%) fueron TBEP. Las tasas de TBEP disminuyeron en todos los grupos de edad. El principal factor de riesgo para TBEP fue la presencia de infección por VIH (OR 1.39). El grupo de edad de menores de 65 años tuvo un menor riesgo de TBEP. CONCLUSIONES: Aunque las personas mayores de 65 años mostraron una mayor incidencia, en general en todos los grupos de edad hubo una tendencia al descenso. Mientras en los niños se observó un descenso significativo en la meningitis tuberculosa, dicha tendencia no se observó en el resto de las formas de tuberculosis extrapulmonar. La tasa de TBEP entre las personas nacidas fuera de España fue mucho mayor que entre las personas nacidas en España

Analysis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Spain: 2007-2012 National Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to study the epidemiological characteristics of the extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in relation to pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) from 2007 to 2012 in Spain, and plot its trend across the same period. METHODS: We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study in which the following variables were analysed: age; sex; disease site; history of antituberculosis treatment; country of birth; presence of HIV infection; and culture results. Age-related differences were ascertained using the test of comparison of proportions, and crude and adjusted ORs were calculated using linear regression models. RESULTS: Of the total of 44,050 cases of tuberculosis reported in the period 2007-2012 and included in the study, 31,508 (71.53%) were pulmonary tuberculosis and 12,542 (28.47%) were EPTB. EPTB rates decreased across all age groups. The main EPTB risk factor was presence of HIV infection (OR 1.39). Persons aged under 65 years had a lower risk of EPTB. CONCLUSIONS: Although persons aged over 65 years displayed the highest incidence, there was nevertheless a downward trend across all age groups. Whereas children showed a significant decrease in tuberculous meningitis, this was not so for all extrapulmonary forms. EPTB rates among persons born outside Spain were much higher than those among the Spanish population.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in the older population of Spain, 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: Older adults are a growing segment of the European population and alcohol is an important cause of disease burden; thus, it is noteworthy that little information is available on alcohol intake among older adults in Europe. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine alcohol consumption patterns and their association with demographic and clinical variables in the older population of Spain. DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: The sample included 3,058 individuals, representative of the Spanish population aged ≥60 years during 2008-2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Regular alcohol consumption was measured with a validated diet history questionnaire. The threshold between moderate and heavy drinking was ≥40 g alcohol/day in men (≥24 g in women). Binge drinking was defined as intake of ≥80 g alcohol in men (≥60 g in women) during any drinking occasion in the previous month, and problem drinking by a CAGE score ≥2. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED: The prevalence and 95% CI of the drinking patterns were calculated after accounting for sampling design. RESULTS: The prevalence of moderate drinking was 44.3% (95% CI 42.0% to 46.6%) and of heavy drinking was 7.8% (95% CI 6.7% to 8.9%). In total, 68.4% (95% CI 65.7% to 71.2%) of individuals obtained >80% of alcohol from wine and 61.8% (95% CI 58.9% to 64.6%) drank only with meals. Furthermore, 1% (95% CI 0.6% to 1.4%) showed binge drinking and 3.1% (95% CI 2.3% to 3.8%) showed problem drinking. Heavy alcohol consumption was significantly more frequent in men. Moderate alcohol consumption was significantly less frequent among women, persons who were not married, living alone, with a diagnosis of diabetes, receiving treatment for diabetes, and with suboptimal self-rated health. About 5% to 10% of individuals with diagnosed hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease showed heavy drinking. Among those taking sleeping pills or antidiabetes or antithrombotic treatment, 37% to 46% had moderate alcohol intake and 5% to 8% had heavy intake. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption among older adults in Spain is frequent and mostly consistent with the traditional Mediterranean drinking pattern. However, a proportion of individuals were heavy drinkers and used medication that may interact with alcohol.

Three-year changes in drinking patterns in Spain: a prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study examined changes in alcohol drinking patterns (DP) and associated variables in a Mediterranean country. METHODS: Changes in DP between baseline (2008-2010) and follow-up (2012-2013) were examined on a Spanish population-based cohort of 2254 adults (18-59 years) using multinomial logistic regression. Heavy consumption was defined as ≥40 g/day of alcohol in men (≥24 g/day in women) and binge drinking (BD) as the intake of ≥80 g of alcohol in men (≥60 g in women) on one occasion in the previous month. Six patterns were defined: (1) non-drinkers; (2) ex-drinkers; (3) moderate drinkers without BD (MNB); (4) moderate drinkers with BD (MB); (5) heavy drinkers without BD (HNB); and (6) heavy drinkers with BD (HB). RESULTS: Overall, 45.2% of participants changed DP during follow-up. Over 24% of non-drinkers and 19.4% of ex-drinkers at baseline qualified as MNB at follow-up. The largest flow was from HNB to MNB (57.1%). Light-drinking patterns experienced the largest gains (ex-drinkers: 37.5% and MNB: 66.7%) by absorbing individuals lost by heavy-drinking patterns (MB: 50.8% and HNB: 48.4%). Men, younger individuals, and current smokers were more likely to report heavy-drinking patterns at one or both assessments. Being married or employed increased the likelihood of reporting light-drinking patterns at both surveys (p<0.05). Improving physical quality of life and exercise were associated with a shift from light- to heavy-drinking pattern during follow-up (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: DP in Spain changed over 3 years with a tendency to "regress" toward moderate patterns. Repeated measures of alcohol intake may reduce classification errors and biased results when examining the impact of alcohol on health.