Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need. METHODS: The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014-2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed. RESULTS: If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy-only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479-86. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Is there endoscopic capacity to provide colorectal cancer screening to the unscreened population in the United States?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening rates for colorectal cancer remain low compared with screening rates for other cancers. The size of the unscreened population and the capacity to provide widespread screening are unknown. We estimated the number of average-risk persons aged 50 years or older not screened for colorectal cancer, the number of procedures required for this population, and the endoscopic capacity to satisfy this unmet need. METHODS: Using data from the US Census Bureau and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health Interview Survey, we designed a forecasting model to estimate the number of persons in the United States currently not screened for colorectal cancer and the number of examinations needed to screen these persons. Test need was compared with available capacity, based on results from the national Survey of Endoscopic Capacity, assuming different proportions of available capacity were used for colorectal cancer screening. RESULTS: Approximately 41.8 million average-risk people aged 50 years or older have not been screened for colorectal cancer according to national guidelines. Sufficient capacity exists to screen the unscreened population within 1 year using fecal occult blood testing followed by diagnostic colonoscopy for positive tests. Depending on the proportion of available capacity used for colorectal cancer screening, it could take up to 10 years to screen the unscreened population using flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: The capacity exists for widespread screening with fecal occult blood testing. The capacity for screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy depends on the proportion of available capacity used for colorectal cancer screening.

How many endoscopies are performed for colorectal cancer screening? Results from CDC's survey of endoscopic capacity.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Estimates of the current number of endoscopic colorectal cancer screening and follow-up examinations being performed are limited. A national study was therefore conducted among US physician practices. METHODS: Approximately 1800 medical practices were surveyed from a list of all practices known to have purchased or leased lower endoscopic equipment between 1996 and 2000. Questions were asked regarding the current number of lower endoscopic procedures performed and the potential maximum number that could be performed. RESULTS: In 2002, a total of 8207 practices reported performing flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy in the United States. Gastroenterologists performed 43.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.2-50.2) of all sigmoidoscopies and 82.5% (95% CI, 80.3-84.7) of all colonoscopies. Primary care physicians performed 24.9% (95% CI, 20.3-29.5) of all sigmoidoscopies and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.4-2.6) of all colonoscopies. All physicians combined performed approximately 2.8 million (95% CI, 2.4-3.1) flexible sigmoidoscopies and 14.2 million (95% CI, 12.1-16.4) colonoscopies but reported that they could increase to approximately 9.5 million flexible sigmoidoscopies (95% CI, 8.4-10.5) and 22.4 million colonoscopies (95% CI, 20.1-24.8) in 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 2.8 million flexible sigmoidoscopies and 14.2 million colonoscopies were estimated to have been performed in 2002. Physicians reported that they could perform an additional 6.7 million flexible sigmoidoscopies and 8.2 million colonoscopies in 1 year. These additional procedures could be used for the unscreened population and should be considered in the estimate of the national capacity to provide colorectal cancer screening to all eligible persons in the United States.