The interplay of facilitation and competition drives the emergence of multistability in dryland plant communities.

Within communities, species are wrapped in a set of feedbacks with each other and with their environment. When such feedbacks are strong enough they can generate alternative stable states. So far, research on alternative stable states has mostly focused on systems with a small number of species and a limited diversity of interaction types. Here, we analyze a spatial model of plant community dynamics in stressed ecosystems such as drylands, where each species is characterized by a strategy, and the different species interact through facilitation and competition for space and resources, such as water. We identify three different types of multistability emerging from the interplay of competition and facilitation. Under low-stress levels, plant communities organize in small groups of coexisting species, maintained by space, competition and facilitation ("cliques"). Under higher stress levels, positive feedback from facilitation lead to the dominance of a single facilitating species ("mutual exclusion states"). At the highest stress levels, the single facilitating species left in the system coexists with the desert state. By linking community ecology and alternative stable states theory using a spatial plant community model for stressed ecosystems, our study contributes to highlight the importance of positive feedback loops for the stability of ecological communities.

Using the multivariate Hawkes process to study interactions between multiple species from camera trap data.

Interspecific interactions can influence species' activity and movement patterns. In particular, species may avoid or attract each other through reactive responses in space and/or time. However, data and methods to study such reactive interactions have remained scarce and were generally limited to two interacting species. At this time, the deployment of camera traps opens new opportunities but adapted statistical techniques are still required to analyze interaction patterns with such data. We present the multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) and show how it can be used to analyze interactions between several species using camera trap data. Hawkes processes use flexible pairwise interaction functions, allowing us to consider asymmetries and variations over time when depicting reactive temporal interactions. After describing the theoretical foundations of the MHP, we outline how its framework can be used to study interspecific interactions with camera trap data. We design a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the MHP and of another existing method to infer interactions from camera trap-like data. We also use the MHP to infer reactive interactions from real camera trap data for five species from South African savannas (impala Aepyceros melampus, greater kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros, lion Panthera leo, blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus and Burchell's zebra Equus quagga burchelli). The simulation study shows that the MHP can be used as a tool to benchmark other methods of interspecific interaction inference and that this model can reliably infer interactions when enough data are considered. The analysis of real data highlights evidence of predator avoidance by prey and herbivore-herbivore attraction. Lastly, we present the advantages and limits of the MHP and discuss how it can be improved to infer attraction/avoidance patterns more reliably. As camera traps are increasingly used, the multivariate Hawkes process provides a promising framework to decipher the complexity of interactions structuring ecological communities.

Monkeys time their pauses of movement and not their movement-kinematics during a synchronization-continuation rhythmic task.

A critical question in tapping behavior is to understand whether the temporal control is exerted on the duration and trajectory of the downward-upward hand movement or on the pause between hand movements. In the present study, we determined the duration of both the movement execution and pauses of monkeys performing a synchronization-continuation task (SCT), using the speed profile of their tapping behavior. We found a linear increase in the variance of pause-duration as a function of interval, while the variance of the motor implementation was relatively constant across intervals. In fact, 96% of the variability of the duration of a complete tapping cycle (pause + movement) was due to the variability of the pause duration. In addition, we performed a Bayesian model selection to determine the effect of interval duration (450-1,000 ms), serial-order (1-6 produced intervals), task phase (sensory cued or internally driven), and marker modality (auditory or visual) on the duration of the movement-pause and tapping movement. The results showed that the most important parameter used to successfully perform the SCT was the control of the pause duration. We also found that the kinematics of the tapping movements was concordant with a stereotyped ballistic control of the hand pressing the push-button. The present findings support the idea that monkeys used an explicit timing strategy to perform the SCT, where a dedicated timing mechanism controlled the duration of the pauses of movement, while also triggered the execution of fixed movements across each interval of the rhythmic sequence.

A review on estimation of stochastic differential equations for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models.

This paper is a survey of existing estimation methods for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Most parametric estimation methods proposed for SDEs require high frequency data and are often poorly suited for PK/PD data which are usually sparse. Moreover, PK/PD experiments generally include not a single individual but a group of subjects, leading to a population estimation approach. This review concentrates on estimation methods which have been applied to PK/PD data, for SDEs observed with and without measurement noise, with a standard or a population approach. Besides, the adopted methodologies highly differ depending on the existence or not of an explicit transition density of the SDE solution.

Bayesian analysis of growth curves using mixed models defined by stochastic differential equations.

Growth curve data consist of repeated measurements of a continuous growth process over time in a population of individuals. These data are classically analyzed by nonlinear mixed models. However, the standard growth functions used in this context prescribe monotone increasing growth and can fail to model unexpected changes in growth rates. We propose to model these variations using stochastic differential equations (SDEs) that are deduced from the standard deterministic growth function by adding random variations to the growth dynamics. A Bayesian inference of the parameters of these SDE mixed models is developed. In the case when the SDE has an explicit solution, we describe an easily implemented Gibbs algorithm. When the conditional distribution of the diffusion process has no explicit form, we propose to approximate it using the Euler-Maruyama scheme. Finally, we suggest validating the SDE approach via criteria based on the predictive posterior distribution. We illustrate the efficiency of our method using the Gompertz function to model data on chicken growth, the modeling being improved by the SDE approach.

Are fMRI event-related response constant in time? A model selection answer.

An accurate estimation of the hemodynamic response function (HRF) in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is crucial for a precise spatial and temporal estimate of the underlying neuronal processes. Recent works have proposed non-parametric estimation of the HRF under the hypotheses of linearity and stationarity in time. Biological literature suggests, however, that response magnitude may vary with attention or ongoing activity. We therefore test a more flexible model that allows for the variation of the magnitude of the HRF with time in a maximum likelihood framework. Under this model, the magnitude of the HRF evoked by a single event may vary across occurrences of the same type of event. This model is tested against a simpler model with a fixed magnitude using information theory. We develop a standard EM algorithm to identify the event magnitudes and the HRF. We test this hypothesis on a series of 32 regions (4 ROIS on eight subjects) of interest and find that the more flexible model is better than the usual model in most cases. The important implications for the analysis of fMRI time series for event-related neuroimaging experiments are discussed.