Aging infrastructure creates opportunities for cost-efficient restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity.

A hallmark of industrialization is the construction of dams for water management and roads for transportation, leading to fragmentation of aquatic ecosystems. Many nations are striving to address both maintenance backlogs and mitigation of environmental impacts as their infrastructure ages. Here, we test whether accounting for road repair needs could offer opportunities to boost conservation efficiency by piggybacking connectivity restoration projects on infrastructure maintenance. Using optimization models to align fish passage restoration sites with likely road repair priorities, we find potential increases in conservation return-on-investment ranging from 17% to 25%. Importantly, these gains occur without compromising infrastructure or conservation priorities; simply communicating openly about objectives and candidate sites enables greater accomplishment at current funding levels. Society embraces both reliable roads and thriving fisheries, so overcoming this coordination challenge should be feasible. Given deferred maintenance crises for many types of infrastructure, there could be widespread opportunities to enhance the cost effectiveness of conservation investments by coordinating with infrastructure renewal efforts.

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species.

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long-standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea-lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0-25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1-105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15-50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea-lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20-80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea-lamprey access to identify barrier-removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea-lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade-off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.

Conserving rare species can have high opportunity costs for common species.

Conservation practitioners face difficult choices in apportioning limited resources between rare species (to ensure their existence) and common species (to ensure their abundance and ecosystem contributions). We quantified the opportunity costs of conserving rare species of migratory fishes in the context of removing dams and retrofitting road culverts across 1,883 tributaries of the North American Great Lakes. Our optimization models show that maximizing total habitat gains across species can be very efficient in terms of benefits achieved per dollar spent, but disproportionately benefits common species. Conservation approaches that target rare species, or that ensure some benefits for every species (i.e., complementarity) enable strategic allocation of resources among species but reduce aggregate habitat gains. Thus, small habitat gains for the rarest species necessarily come at the expense of more than 20 times as much habitat for common ones. These opportunity costs are likely to occur in many ecosystems because range limits and conservation costs often vary widely among species. Given that common species worldwide are declining more rapidly than rare ones within major taxa, our findings provide incentive for triage among multiple worthy conservation targets.

Midwestern US Farmers Perceive Crop Advisers as Conduits of Information on Agricultural Conservation Practices.

Nonpoint source pollution from agricultural land uses continues to pose one of the most significant threats to water quality in the US, with measurable impacts across local, regional, and national scales. The impact and the influence of targeted conservation efforts are directly related to the degree to which farmers are familiar with and trust the entities providing the information and/or outreach. Recent research suggests that farmers consistently rank independent and retail-affiliated crop advisers as among the most trusted and influential sources for agronomic information, but little is understood about whether farmers are willing to receive advice from crop advisers on the use of practices that conserve soil and water, and, if so, whether crop advisers will be perceived as influential. We present survey data from farmers (n = 1461) in Michigan's Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) watershed to explore these questions. Results suggest that farmers view crop advisers as trustworthy sources of information about conservation, and influential on management practices that have large conservation implications. We discuss these results, along with perceived barriers and opportunities to crop advisers partnering with traditional conservation agencies to enhance the impact of voluntary conservation programs.

Designing coastal conservation to deliver ecosystem and human well-being benefits.

Conservation scientists increasingly recognize that incorporating human values into conservation planning increases the chances for success by garnering broader project acceptance. However, methods for defining quantitative targets for the spatial representation of human well-being priorities are less developed. In this study we employ an approach for identifying regionally important human values and establishing specific spatial targets for their representation based on stakeholder outreach. Our primary objective was to develop a spatially-explicit conservation plan that identifies the most efficient locations for conservation actions to meet ecological goals while sustaining or enhancing human well-being values within the coastal and nearshore areas of the western Lake Erie basin (WLEB). We conducted an optimization analysis using 26 features representing ecological and human well-being priorities (13 of each), and included seven cost layers. The influence that including human well-being had on project results was tested by running five scenarios and setting targets for human well-being at different levels in each scenario. The most important areas for conservation to achieve multiple goals are clustered along the coast, reflecting a concentration of existing or potentially restorable coastal wetlands, coastal landbird stopover habitat and terrestrial biodiversity, as well as important recreational activities. Inland important areas tended to cluster around trails and high quality inland landbird stopover habitat. Most concentrated areas of importance also are centered on lands that are already conserved, reflecting the lower costs and higher benefits of enlarging these conserved areas rather than conserving isolated, dispersed areas. Including human well-being features in the analysis only influenced the solution at the highest target levels.

Understanding the Groundwater Hydrology of a Geographically-Isolated Prairie Fen: Implications for Conservation.

The sources of water and corresponding delivery mechanisms to groundwater-fed fens are not well understood due to the multi-scale geo-morphologic variability of the glacial landscape in which they occur. This lack of understanding limits the ability to effectively conserve these systems and the ecosystem services they provide, including biodiversity and water provisioning. While fens tend to occur in clusters around regional groundwater mounds, Ives Road Fen in southern Michigan is an example of a geographically-isolated fen. In this paper, we apply a multi-scale groundwater modeling approach to understand the groundwater sources for Ives Road fen. We apply Transition Probability geo-statistics on more than 3000 well logs from a state-wide water well database to characterize the complex geology using conditional simulations. We subsequently implement a 3-dimensional reverse particle tracking to delineate groundwater contribution areas to the fen. The fen receives water from multiple sources: local recharge, regional recharge from an extensive till plain, a regional groundwater mound, and a nearby pond. The regional sources deliver water through a tortuous, 3-dimensional "pipeline" consisting of a confined aquifer lying beneath an extensive clay layer. Water in this pipeline reaches the fen by upwelling through openings in the clay layer. The pipeline connects the geographically-isolated fen to the same regional mound that provides water to other fen clusters in southern Michigan. The major implication of these findings is that fen conservation efforts must be expanded from focusing on individual fens and their immediate surroundings, to studying the much larger and inter-connected hydrologic network that sustains multiple fens.

Rating impacts in a multi-stressor world: a quantitative assessment of 50 stressors affecting the Great Lakes.

Ecosystems often experience multiple environmental stressors simultaneously that can differ widely in their pathways and strengths of impact. Differences in the relative impact of environmental stressors can guide restoration and management prioritization, but few studies have empirically assessed a comprehensive suite of stressors acting on a given ecosystem. To fill this gap in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where considerable restoration investments are currently underway, we used expert elicitation via a detailed online survey to develop ratings of the relative impacts of 50 potential stressors. Highlighting the multiplicity of stressors in this system, experts assessed all 50 stressors as having some impact on ecosystem condition, but ratings differed greatly among stressors. Individual stressors related to invasive and nuisance species (e.g., dreissenid mussels and ballast invasion risk) and climate change were assessed as having the greatest potential impacts. These results mark a shift away from the longstanding emphasis on nonpoint phosphorus and persistent bioaccumulative toxic substances in the Great Lakes. Differences in impact ratings among lakes and ecosystem zones were weak, and experts exhibited surprisingly high levels of agreement on the relative impacts of most stressors. Our results provide a basin-wide, quantitative summary of expert opinion on the present-day influence of all major Great Lakes stressors. The resulting ratings can facilitate prioritizing stressors to achieve management objectives in a given location, as well as providing a baseline for future stressor impact assessments in the Great Lakes and elsewhere.

Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination.

In many large ecosystems, conservation projects are selected by a diverse set of actors operating independently at spatial scales ranging from local to international. Although small-scale decision making can leverage local expert knowledge, it also may be an inefficient means of achieving large-scale objectives if piecemeal efforts are poorly coordinated. Here, we assess the value of coordinating efforts in both space and time to maximize the restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity. Habitat fragmentation is a leading driver of declining biodiversity and ecosystem services in rivers worldwide, and we simultaneously evaluate optimal barrier removal strategies for 661 tributary rivers of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which are fragmented by at least 6,692 dams and 232,068 road crossings. We find that coordinating barrier removals across the entire basin is nine times more efficient at reconnecting fish to headwater breeding grounds than optimizing independently for each watershed. Similarly, a one-time pulse of restoration investment is up to 10 times more efficient than annual allocations totaling the same amount. Despite widespread emphasis on dams as key barriers in river networks, improving road culvert passability is also essential for efficiently restoring connectivity to the Great Lakes. Our results highlight the dramatic economic and ecological advantages of coordinating efforts in both space and time during restoration of large ecosystems.

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness.

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments.

Avian use of perennial biomass feedstocks as post-breeding and migratory stopover habitat.

Increased production of biomass crops in North America will require new agricultural land, intensify the cultivation of land already under production and introduce new types of biomass crops. Assessing the potential biodiversity impacts of novel agricultural systems is fundamental to the maintenance of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, yet the consequences of expanded biomass production remain unclear. We evaluate the ability of two candidate second generation biomass feedstocks (switchgrass, Panicum virgatum, and mixed-grass prairie) not currently managed as crops to act as post-breeding and fall migratory stopover habitat for birds. In total, we detected 41 bird species, including grassland specialists and species of state and national conservation concern (e.g. Henslow's Sparrow, Ammodramus henslowii). Avian species richness was generally comparable in switchgrass and prairie and increased with patch size in both patch types. Grassland specialists were less abundant and less likely to occur in patches within highly forested landscapes and were more common and likely to occur in larger patches, indicating that this group is also area-sensitive outside of the breeding season. Variation in the biomass and richness of arthropod food within patches was generally unrelated to richness and abundance metrics. Total bird abundance and that of grassland specialists was higher in patches with greater vegetation structural heterogeneity. Collectively, we find that perennial biomass feedstocks have potential to provide post-breeding and migratory stopover habitat for birds, but that the placement and management of crops will be critical factors in determining their suitability for species of conservation concern. Industrialization of cellulosic bioenergy production that results in reduced crop structural heterogeneity is likely to dramatically reduce the suitability of perennial biomass crops for birds.

West Nile virus impacts in American crow populations are associated with human land use and climate.

West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in the western hemisphere during the summer of 1999, reawakening US public awareness of the potential severity of vector-borne pathogens. Since its New World introduction, WNV has caused disease in human, avian, and mammalian communities across the continent. American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) are a highly susceptible WNV host and when modeled appropriately, changes in crow abundances can serve as a proxy for the spatio-temporal presence of WNV. We use the dramatic declines in abundance of this avian host to examine spatio-temporal heterogeneity in WNV intensity across the northeastern US, where WNV was first detected. Using data from the Breeding Bird Survey, we identify significant declines in crow abundance after WNV emergence that are associated with lower forest cover, more urban land use, and warmer winter temperatures. Importantly, we document continued declines as WNV was present in an area over consecutive years. Our findings support the urban-pathogen link that human WNV incidence studies have shown. For each 1% increase in urban land cover we expect an additional 5% decline in the log crow abundance beyond the decline attributed to WNV in undeveloped areas. We also demonstrate a significant relationship between above-average winter temperatures and WNV-related declines in crow abundance. The mechanisms behind these patterns remain uncertain and hypotheses requiring further research are suggested. In particular, a strong positive relationship between urban land cover and winter temperatures may confound mechanistic understanding, especially when a temperature-sensitive vector is involved.

Lidar remote sensing variables predict breeding habitat of a Neotropical migrant bird.

A topic of recurring interest in ecological research is the degree to which vegetation structure influences the distribution and abundance of species. Here we test the applicability of remote sensing, particularly novel use of waveform lidar measurements, for quantifying the habitat heterogeneity of a contiguous northern hardwoods forest in the northeastern United States. We apply these results to predict the breeding habitat quality, an indicator of reproductive output of a well-studied Neotropical migrant songbird, the Black-throated Blue Warbler (Dendroica caerulescens). We found that using canopy vertical structure metrics provided unique information for models of habitat quality and spatial patterns of prevalence. An ensemble decision tree modeling approach (random forests) consistently identified lidar metrics describing the vertical distribution and complexity of canopy elements as important predictors of habitat use over multiple years. Although other aspects of habitat were important, including the seasonality of vegetation cover, the canopy structure variables provided unique and complementary information that systematically improved model predictions. We conclude that canopy structure metrics derived from waveform lidar, which will be available on future satellite missions, can advance multiple aspects of biodiversity research, and additional studies should be extended to other organisms and regions.

Terrestrial reserve networks do not adequately represent aquatic ecosystems.

Protected areas are a cornerstone of conservation and have been designed largely around terrestrial features. Freshwater species and ecosystems are highly imperiled, but the effectiveness of existing protected areas in representing freshwater features is poorly known. Using the inland waters of Michigan as a test case, we quantified the coverage of four key freshwater features (wetlands, riparian zones, groundwater recharge, rare species) within conservation lands and compared these with representation of terrestrial features. Wetlands were included within protected areas more often than expected by chance, but riparian zones were underrepresented across all (GAP 1-3) protected lands, particularly for headwater streams and large rivers. Nevertheless, within strictly protected lands (GAP 1-2), riparian zones were highly represented because of the contribution of the national Wild and Scenic Rivers Program. Representation of areas of groundwater recharge was generally proportional to area of the reserve network within watersheds, although a recharge hotspot associated with some of Michigan's most valued rivers is almost entirely unprotected. Species representation in protected areas differed significantly among obligate aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial species, with representation generally highest for terrestrial species and lowest for aquatic species. Our results illustrate the need to further evaluate and address the representation of freshwater features within protected areas and the value of broadening gap analysis and other protected-areas assessments to include key ecosystem processes that are requisite to long-term conservation of species and ecosystems. We conclude that terrestrially oriented protected-area networks provide a weak safety net for aquatic features, which means complementary planning and management for both freshwater and terrestrial conservation targets is needed.

Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability.

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year-round residents or long-distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements.

Multiple density-dependence mechanisms regulate a migratory bird population during the breeding season.

The mechanisms regulating bird populations are poorly understood and controversial. We provide evidence that a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), is regulated by multiple density-dependence mechanisms in its breeding quarters. Evidence of regulation includes: stability in population density during 1969-2002, strong density dependence in time-series analyses of this period, an inverse relationship between warbler density and annual fecundity, and a positive relationship between annual fecundity and recruitment of yearlings in the subsequent breeding season. Tests of the mechanisms causing regulation were carried out within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, during 1997-1999. When individuals from abutting territories were experimentally removed in a homogeneous patch of high-quality habitat, the fecundity of focal pairs nearly doubled, revealing a locally operating crowding mechanism. A site-dependence mechanism was indicated by an inverse relationship between population size and mean territory quality, as well as by greater annual fecundity on the sites that were most frequently occupied and of highest quality. These site-dependence relationships were revealed by intensive monitoring of territory quality and demography at the landscape spatial scale. Crowding and site-dependence mechanisms, therefore, acted simultaneously but at different spatial scales to regulate local abundance of this migratory bird population.