The association between phylogenetic lineage and the subclinical phenotype of pulmonary tuberculosis: A retrospective 2-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is an asymptomatic disease state between established TB infection and symptomatic (clinical) TB disease. It is present in 20-25% of PTB patients in high-income countries. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) genetic heterogeneity, and differential host immunological responses, have been implicated in its pathogenesis. METHODS: To determine the association between MTBC lineage and PTB disease phenotype, we used two retrospective cohorts of PTB patients in Canada and two independent lineage attribution methods (DNA fingerprinting and genome sequencing). The first cohort, Cohort 1, consisted of consecutively diagnosed PTB patients between 2014 and 2020. The second, Cohort 2, consisted of newly-arrived foreign-born PTB patients who either were or were not referred for post-landing medical surveillance between 2004 and 2017. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were sequentially fitted to both cohorts, adjusting for age, sex, disease type, drug resistance and HIV. Evolution of radiographic features was correlated to lineage in Cohort 2. FINDINGS: Cohort 1 and 2 included 874 (209 subclinical) and 111 (44 subclinical) patients, respectively. In both cohorts, subclinical patients were more likely than clinical patients to have relapse/retreatment disease, be smear-negative, have longer times-to-culture positivity and to harbor an ancestral MTBC lineage (Indo-Oceanic or Mycobacterium africanum). Relapse/retreatment disease and ancestral MTBC lineage were independent predictors of subclinical disease (ORs and 95% CIs in Cohort 1, 1.85 [1.07,3.28], p < 0.029 and 2.30 [1.66,3.18], p < 0.001, respectively, and Cohort 2, 5.74 [1.37-24.06], p < 0.017 and 3.21 (1.29,7.97], p < 0.012, respectively). The geographic distribution of Indo-Oceanic strains causing subclinical disease was uneven. Non-progressive lung disease was more common in patients infected with ancestral than modern lineages in Cohort 2, 56.0% vs 25.4%, p < 0.005. INTERPRETATION: MTBC lineage is a strong predictor of PTB disease phenotype. The genetic drivers of this association, and the relative contribution of other explanatory variables, are unknown.

Limitations of Chest Radiography in Diagnosing Subclinical Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Canada.

Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is defined as "…a state of disease due to viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis that does not cause TB-related symptoms but does cause other abnormalities that can be detected using existing radiologic and mycobacteriologic assays." In high-income countries, subclinical PTB is usually diagnosed during active case finding, is acid-fast bacilli smear negative, and associated with minimal or no lung parenchymal abnormality on chest radiograph. In the absence of symptoms, the epidemiologic risk of TB and chest radiograph are critical to making the diagnosis. In a cohort of 327 patients with subclinical PTB, we address the question-how well field radiologists perform at identifying features important to the diagnosis of PTB, the presence or absence of which have been established by a panel of expert radiologists? Although not performing badly compared with this "gold standard," field readers were nevertheless susceptible to overread or underread films and miss key diagnostic features, such as the presence of a lung parenchymal abnormality, typical pattern, or cavitation. In the context of active case finding during which most patients with subclinical PTB are discovered, limitations of the chest radiograph need to be recognized, and sputum, ideally induced, should be submitted regardless of the radiographic findings.

The prevalence, risk factors, and public health consequences of peripheral lymph node-associated clinical and subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVES: Relatively little is known about the prevalence, risk factors, and public health consequences of peripheral lymph node (PLN)-associated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). METHODS: We developed a 10-year (2010-2019) population-based cohort of PLNTB patients in Canada. We used systematically collected primary source data and expert reader chest radiograph interpretations in a multivariable logistic regression to determine associations between sputum culture positivity and demographic, clinical, and radiographic features. Public health risks were estimated among contacts of PLNTB patients. RESULTS: There were 306 patients with PLNTB, among whom 283 (92.5%) were 15-64 years of age, 159 (52.0%) were female, and 293 (95.8%) were foreign-born. Respiratory symptoms were present in 21.6%, and abnormal chest radiograph in 23.2%. Sputum culture positivity ranged from 12.9% in patients with no symptoms and normal lung parenchyma to 66.7% in patients with both. Respiratory symptoms, abnormal lung parenchyma, and HIV-coinfection (borderline) were independent predictors of sputum culture positivity (odds ratio [OR] 2.24 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-4.39], P = 0.01, OR 4.78 [95% CI 2.41-9.48], P < 0.001, and OR 2.54 [95% CI 0.99-6.52], P = 0.05), respectively. Among contacts of sputum culture-positive PLNTB patients, one secondary case and 16 new infections were identified. CONCLUSION: Isochronous PTB is common in PLNTB patients. Routine screening of PLNTB patients for PTB is strongly recommended.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of maternal immunization against pertussis in Alberta using agent-based modeling: A Canadian immunization research network study.

INTRODUCTION: The re-emergence of pertussis has occurred in the past two decades in developed countries. The highest morbidity and mortality is seen among infants. Vaccination in pregnancy is recommended to reduce the pertussis burden in infants. METHODS: We developed and validated an agent-based model to characterize pertussis epidemiology in Alberta. We computed programmatic effectiveness of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy (PVE) in relation to maternal vaccine coverage and pertussis disease reporting thresholds. We estimated the population preventable fraction (PFP) of different levels of maternal vaccine coverage against counterfactual "no-vaccination" scenario. We modeled the effect of immunological blunting and measured protection through interruption of exposure pathways. RESULTS: PVE was inversely related to duration of passive immunity from maternal immunization across most simulations. In the scenario of 50% maternal vaccine coverage, PVE was 87% (95% quantiles 82-91%), with PFP of 44% (95% quantiles 41-45%). For monthly age intervals of 0-2, 2-4, 4-6 and 6-12, PVE ranged between 82 and 99%, and PFP ranged between 41 and 49%. At 75% maternal vaccine coverage, PVE and PFP were 90% (95% quantiles 86-92%) and 68% (95% quantiles 65-69%), respectively. At 50% maternal vaccine coverage and 10% blunting, PVE and PFP were 86% (95% quantiles 77-87%) and 43% (95% quantiles 39-44%), respectively, while at 50% blunting, the corresponding values of PVE and PFP were 76% (95% quantiles 70-81%) and 38% (95% quantiles 35-40%). PVE attributable to interruption of exposure pathways was 54-57%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predicts significant reduction in future pertussis cases in infants due to maternal vaccination, with immunological blunting slightly moderating its effectiveness. The model is most sensitive to maternal vaccination coverage. The interruption of exposure pathways plays a role in the reduction of pertussis burden in infants due to maternal immunization. The effect of maternal immunization on population other than infants remains to be elucidated.

A comparison of the chest radiographic and computed tomographic features of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis.

Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a recently described intermediate state of great interest, but about which little is known. This study sought to describe and compare the frequency of key radiologic features of subclinical PTB on chest radiograph (CXR) versus computed tomographic scan (CT), and to interpret the clinical and public health relevance of the differences. Diagnostic CXRs and CT scans of the thorax and neck in a 16-year cohort of subclinical PTB patients in Canada were re-acquired and read by two independent readers and arbitrated by a third reader. Logistic regression models were fit to determine how likely CXR features can be detected by CT scan versus CXR after adjustment for age and sex. Among 296 subclinical patients, CXRs were available in 286 (96.6%) and CT scans in 94 (32.9%). CXR features in patients with and without CT scans were comparable. Lung cavitation was 4.77 times (95% CI 1.95-11.66), endobronchial spread 19.36 times (95% CI 8.05-46.52), and moderate/far-advanced parenchymal disease 3.23 times (95% CI 1.66-6.30), more common on CT scan than CXR. We conclude that the extent to which CXRs under-detect key radiologic features in subclinical PTB is substantial. This may have public health and treatment implications.

Health system impacts of SARS-CoV - 2 variants of concern: a rapid review.

BACKGROUND: As of November 25th 2021, four SARS-CoV - 2 variants of concern (VOC: Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2)) have been detected. Variable degrees of increased transmissibility of the VOC have been documented, with potential implications for hospital and health system capacity and control measures. This rapid review aimed to provide a synthesis of evidence related to health system responses to the emergence of VOC worldwide. METHODS: Seven databases were searched up to September 27, 2021, for terms related to VOC. Titles, abstracts, and full-text documents were screened independently by two reviewers. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers using a standardized form. Studies were included if they reported on at least one of the VOC and health system outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 4877 articles retrieved, 59 studies were included, which used a wide range of designs and methods. Most of the studies reported on Alpha, and all except two reported on impacts for capacity planning related to hospitalization, intensive care admissions, and mortality. Most studies (73.4%) observed an increase in hospitalization, but findings on increased admission to intensive care units were mixed (50%). Most studies (63.4%) that reported mortality data found an increased risk of death due to VOC, although health system capacity may influence this. No studies reported on screening staff and visitors or cohorting patients based on VOC. CONCLUSION: While the findings should be interpreted with caution as most of the sources identified were preprints, evidence is trending towards an increased risk of hospitalization and, potentially, mortality due to VOC compared to wild-type SARS-CoV - 2. There is little evidence on the need for, and the effect of, changes to health system arrangements in response to VOC transmission.

The Radiographic and Mycobacteriologic Correlates of Subclinical Pulmonary TB in Canada: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Very little is known about subclinical pulmonary TB (PTB), a recently described intermediate state, in high-income countries. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the prevalence of subclinical PTB in Canada? What are its diagnostic chest radiography features? What is the relationship between those features and time to culture positivity, and what is the association between DNA fingerprint clustering, a measure of local transmission, and radiographic or other features in the foreign-born? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used primary source data to identify a 16-year retrospective cohort of patients with PTB. Demographic and mycobacteriologic features in patients with subclinical and clinical disease were compared, and the reason for assessment of patients with subclinical disease was described. Diagnostic chest radiographs in patients with subclinical disease were read by two independent readers and were arbitrated by a third reader. Linear regression was used to compute time to culture positivity (in days) in relationship to the change in chest radiograph findings from normal or minimally abnormal to moderately or far advanced, adjusted for age and sex and stratified by reason for assessment. Multivariate logistic regression was used in foreign-born patients with subclinical disease to determine associations between DNA fingerprint clustering of Mycobacterium TB isolates and age, sex, chest radiograph features, and time since arrival. RESULTS: We identified 1,656 patients with PTB, 347 of whom (21%) were subclinical. Compared with patients with clinical disease, patients with subclinical disease were more likely to be foreign-born (90.2% vs 79.6%) and to demonstrate negative smear results (88.2% vs 43.5%). The median time to culture-positivity was 18 days (interquartile range [IQR], 14-25 days) vs 12 days (IQR, 7-17 days). Most patients with PTB (75.2%) were identified during active case finding. Parenchymal disease was absent or minimal on chest radiography in 86.4% of patients. More advanced disease on chest radiography was associated with shorter times to culture positivity in nonstratified (by 3.3 days) and stratified (by 4.5-5.8 days) analysis (active case-finding groups). DNA fingerprint clustering was associated with male sex and a longer time between arrival and diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Subclinical patients with PTB constitute a substantial and heterogeneous minority of patients with PTB in high-income countries. DNA fingerprint clustering is consistent with some, albeit limited, local transmission.

How much do smear-negative patients really contribute to tuberculosis transmissions? Re-examining an old question with new tools.

BACKGROUND: Sputum smear microscopy is a common surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness. Previous estimates that smear-negative patients contribute 13-20% of transmissions and are, on average, 20 to 25% as infectious as smear-positive cases are understood to be high. Herein, we use an ideal real-world setting, a comprehensive dataset, and new high-resolution techniques to more accurately estimate the true transmission risk of smear-negative cases. METHODS: We treated all adult culture-positive pulmonary TB patients diagnosed in the province of Alberta, Canada from 2003 to 2016 as potential transmitters. The primary data sources were the Alberta TB Registry and the Provincial Laboratory for Public Health. We measured, as primary outcomes, the proportion of transmissions attributable to smear-negative sources and the relative transmission rate. First, we replicated previous studies by using molecular (DNA) fingerprint clustering. Then, using a prospectively collected registry of TB contacts, we defined transmission events as active TB amongst identified contacts who either had a 100% DNA fingerprint match to the source case or a clinical diagnosis. We supplemented our analysis with genome sequencing on temporally and geographically linked DNA fingerprint clusters of cases not identified as contacts. FINDINGS: There were 1176 cases, 563 smear-negative and 613 smear-positive, and 23,131 contacts. Replicating previous studies, the proportion of transmissions attributable to smear-negative source cases was 16% (95% CI, 12-19%) and the relative transmission rate was 0.19 (95% CI, 0.14-0.26). With our combined approach, the proportion of transmission was 8% (95% CI, 3-14%) and the relative transmission rate became 0.10 (95% CI, 0.05-0.19). INTERPRETATION: When we examined the same outcomes as in previous studies but refined transmission ascertainment with the addition of conventional epidemiology and genomics, we found that smear-negative cases were ∼50% less infectious than previously thought. FUNDING: Alberta Innovates Health Solutions.

Decline of Influenza and Respiratory Viruses With COVID-19 Public Health Measures: Alberta, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of influenza and noninfluenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs) pre-/post-implementation of public health measures aimed to decrease coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission using population-based surveillance data. We hypothesized that such measures could reduce the burden of respiratory viruses (RVs) transmitting via the same routes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An interrupted time-series analysis of RV surveillance data in Alberta, Canada, from May 2017 to July 2020 was conducted. The burden of influenza and NIRVs before and after intervention initiation at week 11 was compared. The analysis was adjusted for seasonality, overdispersion, and autocorrelation. RESULTS: During the study period, an average of 708 and 4056 weekly respiratory multiplex molecular panels were conducted pre-/post-intervention, respectively. We found significant reductions in test positivity rates in the postintervention period for influenza (-94.3%; 95% CI, -93.8 to 97.4%; P<.001) and all NIRVs (-76.5%; 95% CI, -77.3 to -75.8%; P<.001) in the crude model, and -86.2% (95% CI, -91.5 to -77.4%: P<.001) and -75% (95% CI, -79.7 to -69.3%; P<.001), respectively, in the adjusted models. Subanalyses for individual viruses showed significant decreases in respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, enterovirus/rhinovirus, and parainfluenza. For non-severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 human coronaviruses, the decline was not statistically significant after adjustment (-22.3%; 95% CI, -49.3 to +19%, P=.246). CONCLUSION: The implementation of COVID-19 public health measures likely resulted in reduced transmission of common RVs. Although drastic lockdowns are unlikely to be required given widespread COVID-19 vaccination, targeted implementation of such measures can lower RV disease burden. Studies to evaluate relative contributions of individual interventions are warranted.

Public health implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a rapid scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: The four SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC; Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) identified by May 2021 are highly transmissible, yet little is known about their impact on public health measures. We aimed to synthesise evidence related to public health measures and VOC. DESIGN: A rapid scoping review. DATA SOURCES: On 11 May 2021, seven databases (MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Epistemonikos' L-OVE on COVID-19, medRxiv, bioRxiv) were searched for terms related to VOC, public health measures, transmission and health systems. No limit was placed on date of publication. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies were included if they reported on any of the four VOCs and public health measures, and were available in English. Only studies reporting on data collected after October 2020, when the first VOC was reported, were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Titles, abstracts and full-text articles were screened by two independent reviewers. Data extraction was completed by two independent reviewers using a standardised form. Data synthesis and reporting followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 37 included studies, the majority assessed the impact of Alpha (n=32) and were conducted in Europe (n=12) or the UK (n=9). Most were modelling studies (n=28) and preprints (n=28). The majority of studies reported on infection control measures (n=17), followed by modifying approaches to vaccines (n=13), physical distancing (n=6) and either mask wearing, testing or hand washing (n=2). Findings suggest an accelerated vaccine rollout is needed to mitigate the spread of VOC. CONCLUSIONS: The increased severity of VOC requires proactive public health measures to control their spread. Further research is needed to strengthen the evidence for continued implementation of public health measures in conjunction with vaccine rollout. With no studies reporting on Delta, there is a need for further research on this and other emerging VOC on public health measures.

What We Know Now: An Economic Evaluation of Chickenpox Vaccination and Dose Timing Using an Agent-Based Model.

OBJECTIVES: The value of chickenpox vaccination is still debated in the literature and by jurisdictions worldwide. This uncertainty is reflected in the inconsistent uptake of the vaccine, where some countries offer routine childhood immunization programs, others have targeted programs, and in many the vaccine is only privately available. Even across the countries that have universal funding for the vaccine, there is a diversity of schedules and dosing intervals. Using an agent-based model of chickenpox and shingles, we conducted an economic evaluation of chickenpox vaccination in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2 common chickenpox vaccination schedules, specifically a long dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 4-6 years) and a short dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 18 months). RESULTS: The economic evaluation demonstrated a shorter dosing interval may be marginally preferred, although it consistently led to higher costs from both the societal and healthcare perspectives. We found that chickenpox vaccination would be cost-saving and highly cost-effective from the societal and healthcare perspective, assuming there was no impact on shingles. CONCLUSION: Chickenpox vaccine was cost-effective when not considering shingles and remained so even if there was a minor increase in shingles following vaccination. However, if chickenpox vaccination did lead to a substantial increase in shingles, then chickenpox vaccination was not cost-effective from the healthcare perspective.

Prompt recognition of infectious pulmonary tuberculosis is critical to achieving elimination goals: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: All pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases are presumed to be infectious to some degree. This spectrum of infectiousness is independently described by both the acid-fast bacilli smear and radiographic findings. Smear-positive patients with chest radiographic findings that are typical for adult-type PTB are believed to be most infectious. HYPOTHESIS: Characterisation of the presumed most infectious PTB case is possible by reference to readily available clinical features and laboratory results. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adult, culture-positive PTB cases (151 smear-positive; 162 smear-negative) diagnosed between 1 January 2013 and 30 April 2017 in Canada. We describe cases according to demographic, clinical and laboratory features. We use multivariable multinomial logistic regression to estimate the relative risk ratio (RRR) with 95% CI of features associated with an outcome of smear-positive PTB, characterised by 'typical' chest radiograph findings. RESULTS: Being Canadian-born, symptomatic, having a subacute duration of symptoms and broad-spectrum antibiotic prescriptions were all more commonly associated with smear-positive than smear-negative disease (36% vs 20%; 95% vs 63%; 88% vs 54%; and 59% vs 28%, respectively). After combining smear status and radiographic features, we show that smear-positive patients with typical chest radiographs were younger, had a longer duration of symptoms (RRR 2.41; 95% CI 1.01 to 5.74 and 2.93; 95% CI 1.20 to 7.11, respectively) and were less likely to be foreign-born, or have a moderate to high-risk factor for reactivation (RRR 0.40; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.92 and 0.18; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.71, respectively) compared with smear-negative patients with atypical chest radiograph findings. CONCLUSION: A clear picture of the presumed most infectious PTB case emerges from available historical and laboratory information; vigilance for this presentation by front-line providers will support elimination strategies aimed at reducing transmission.

Seeking the optimal schedule for chickenpox vaccination in Canada: Using an agent-based model to explore the impact of dose timing, coverage and waning of immunity on disease outcomes.

Many countries continue to consider implementing a universal chickenpox vaccine program; however, there is no consensus on the most appropriate and effective timing between vaccine doses. The chickenpox vaccine schedule debate is highlighted in Canada, where there are currently eight different vaccine schedules across the country. The objective of this study was to test the overall effectiveness of chickenpox vaccination, as well as the specific impact of two different vaccine schedules, on chickenpox disease outcomes in Alberta over 75 years. Using an agent-based model of chickenpox disease, we tested the impact of three vaccination scenarios including: baseline (no vaccination), a long dosing interval-Schedule LDI (1st dose - 12 months; 2nd dose -  4-6 years) and a short dosing interval-Schedule SDI (1st dose - 12 months; 2nd dose - 18 months) on chickenpox and shingles disease outcomes. Chickenpox vaccination led to a substantial decrease in chickenpox incidence over 75 years post-vaccine implementation. Compared to Schedule LDI, Schedule SDI resulted in a significantly lower chickenpox incidence, a higher age of chickenpox infection, a lower chickenpox breakthrough rate and a higher shingles incidence rate. Our model findings suggest that the chickenpox vaccine is effective over a long period of time and the dose timing of the vaccine may impact disease outcomes and vaccine effectiveness. However, the effectiveness of the vaccine dose timing is only one consideration for policy-makers who are implementing a chickenpox vaccine program, with others including risk of adverse events, the impact of the schedule on other antigens in a combination vaccine, parental acceptance and the cost associated with different schedules.

Applying particle filtering in both aggregated and age-structured population compartmental models of pre-vaccination measles.

Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young children under 5 globally. While the use of ongoing surveillance data and-recently-dynamic models offer insight on measles dynamics, both suffer notable shortcomings when applied to measles outbreak prediction. In this paper, we apply the Sequential Monte Carlo approach of particle filtering, incorporating reported measles incidence for Saskatchewan during the pre-vaccination era, using an adaptation of a previously contributed measles compartmental model. To secure further insight, we also perform particle filtering on an age structured adaptation of the model in which the population is divided into two interacting age groups-children and adults. The results indicate that, when used with a suitable dynamic model, particle filtering can offer high predictive capacity for measles dynamics and outbreak occurrence in a low vaccination context. We have investigated five particle filtering models in this project. Based on the most competitive model as evaluated by predictive accuracy, we have performed prediction and outbreak classification analysis. The prediction results demonstrate that this model could predict measles outbreak evolution and classify whether there will be an outbreak or not in the next month (Area under the ROC Curve of 0.89). We conclude that anticipating the outbreak dynamics of measles in low vaccination regions by applying particle filtering with simple measles transmission models, and incorporating time series of reported case counts, is a valuable technique to assist public health authorities in estimating risk and magnitude of measles outbreaks. It is to be emphasized that particle filtering supports estimation of (via sampling from) the entire state of the dynamic model-both latent and observable-for each point in time. Such approach offers a particularly strong value proposition for other pathogens with little-known dynamics, critical latent drivers, and in the context of the growing number of high-velocity electronic data sources. Strong additional benefits are also likely to be realized from extending the application of this technique to highly vaccinated populations.

Epidemiological and genomic determinants of tuberculosis outbreaks in First Nations communities in Canada.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, tuberculosis disproportionately affects foreign-born and First Nations populations. Within First Nations' peoples, a high proportion of cases occur in association with outbreaks. Tuberculosis transmission in the context of outbreaks is thought to result from the convergence of several factors including characteristics of the cases, contacts, the environment, and the pathogen. METHODS: We examined the epidemiological and genomic determinants of two well-characterized tuberculosis outbreaks attributed to two super-spreaders among First Nations in the province of Alberta. These outbreaks were associated with two distinct DNA fingerprints (restriction fragment-length polymorphisms or RFLPs 0.0142 and 0.0728). We compared outbreak isolates with endemic isolates not spatio-temporarily linked to outbreak cases. We extracted epidemiological variables pertaining to tuberculosis cases and contacts from individual public health records and the provincial tuberculosis registry. We conducted group analyses using parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. We carried out whole-genome sequencing and bioinformatic analysis using validated protocols. RESULTS: We observed differences between outbreak and endemic groups in the mean number of total and child-aged contacts and the number of contacts with new positive and converted tuberculin skin tests in all group comparisons (p < 0.05). Differences were also detected in the proportion of cases with cavitation on a chest radiograph and the mean number of close contacts in selected group comparisons (p < 0.02). A phylogenetic network analysis of whole-genome sequencing data indicated that most outbreak and endemic strains were closely related to the source case for the 0.0142 fingerprint. For the 0.0728 fingerprint, the source case haplotype was circulating among endemic cases prior to the outbreak. Genetic and temporal distances were not correlated for either RFLP 0.0142 (r2 = - 0.05) or RFLP 0.0728 (r2 = 0.09) when all isolates were analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that endemic strains acquired mutations resulting in their emergence in outbreak form. We conclude that the propagation of these outbreaks was likely driven by the combination of characteristics of the source cases, contacts, and the environment. The role of whole-genome sequencing in understanding mycobacterial evolution and in assisting public health authorities in conducting contact investigations and managing outbreaks is important and expected to grow in the future.

Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling.

BACKGROUND: Biological interactions between varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles), two diseases caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), continue to be debated including the potential effect on shingles cases following the introduction of universal childhood chickenpox vaccination programs. We investigated how chickenpox vaccination in Alberta impacts the incidence and age-distribution of shingles over 75 years post-vaccination, taking into consideration a variety of plausible theories of waning and boosting of immunity. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model representing VZV disease, transmission, vaccination states and coverage, waning and boosting of immunity in a stylized geographic area, utilizing a distance-based network. We derived parameters from literature, including modeling, epidemiological, and immunology studies. We calibrated our model to the age-specific incidence of shingles and chickenpox prior to vaccination to derive optimal combinations of duration of boosting (DoB) and waning of immunity. We conducted paired simulations with and without implementing chickenpox vaccination. We computed the count and cumulative incidence rate of shingles cases at 10, 25, 50, and 75 years intervals, following introduction of vaccination, and compared the difference between runs with vaccination and without vaccination using the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine statistical significance. We carried out sensitivity analyses by increasing and lowering vaccination coverage and removing biological effect of boosting. RESULTS: Chickenpox vaccination led to a decrease in chickenpox cases. The cumulative incidence of chickenpox had dropped from 1,254 cases per 100,000 person-years pre chickenpox vaccination to 193 cases per 100,000 person-years 10 years after the vaccine implementation. We observed an increase in the all-ages shingles cumulative incidence at 10 and 25 years post chickenpox vaccination and mixed cumulative incidence change at 50 and 75 years post-vaccination. The magnitude of change was sensitive to DoB and ranged from an increase of 22-100 per 100,000 person-years at 10 years post-vaccination for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). At 75 years post-vaccination, cumulative incidence ranged from a decline of 70 to an increase of 71 per 100,000 person-years for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses had a minimal impact on our inferences except for removing the effect of boosting. DISCUSSION: Our model demonstrates that over the longer time period, there will be a reduction in shingles incidence driven by the depletion of the source of shingles reactivation; however in the short to medium term some age cohorts may experience an increase in shingles incidence. Our model offers a platform to further explore the relationship between chickenpox and shingles, including analyzing the impact of different chickenpox vaccination schedules and cost-effectiveness studies.

Predicting pulmonary tuberculosis in immigrants: a retrospective cohort study.

Our objective was to investigate whether pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) can be predicted from features of a targeted medical history and basic laboratory investigations in immigrants. A retrospective cohort of 391 foreign-born adults referred to the Edmonton Tuberculosis Clinic (Edmonton, AB, Canada) was studied using multiple logistic regression analysis to predict PTB. Seven characteristics of disease were used as explanatory variables. Cross-validation assessed performance. Each predictor was tested on two outcomes: "culture-positive" and "smear-positive". Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was quantified. Symptoms, subacute duration of symptoms, risk factors for reactivation of latent TB infection and anaemia were all associated with a positive culture (adjusted OR 1.79, 2.24, 1.72 and 2.28, respectively; p<0.05). Symptoms, inappropriate prescription of broad-spectrum antibiotics and a "typical" chest radiograph were associated with smear-positive PTB (adjusted OR 2.91, 1.55 and 12.34, respectively; p<0.05). ROC curve analysis was used to test each model, yielding AUC=0.91 for the outcome "culture-positive" disease and AUC=0.94 for the outcome "smear-positive" disease. PTB among the foreign-born can be predicted from a targeted medical history and basic laboratory investigations, raising the threshold of suspicion in settings where the disease is relatively rare.