First implantable cardiac defibrillator insertions in New South Wales, 2005-2020: an analysis of linked administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the annual numbers of first ICD insertions in New South Wales during 2005-2020; to examine health outcomes for people who first received ICDs during this period. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked administrative health data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All first insertions of ICDs in NSW, 2005-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual numbers of first ICD insertions, and of emergency department presentations and hospital re-admissions 30 days, 90 days, 365 days after first ICD insertions; all-cause and disease-specific mortality (to ten years after ICD insertion). RESULTS: During 2005-2020, ICDs were first inserted into 16 867 people (18.5 per 100 000 population); their mean age was 65.7 years (standard deviation, 13.5 years; 7376 aged 70 years or older, 43.7%), 13 214 were men (78.3%). The annual number of insertions increased from 791 in 2005 to 1256 in 2016; the first ICD insertion rate increased from 15.5 in 2005 to 18.9 per 100 000 population in 2010, after which the rate was stable until 2019 (19.8 per 100 000 population). Of the 16 778 people discharged alive from hospital after first ICD insertions, 54.4% presented to emergency departments within twelve months, including 1236 with cardiac arrhythmias (7.4%) and 434 with device-related problems (2.6%); 56% were re-admitted to hospital, including 1944 with cardiac arrhythmias (11.5%) and 2045 with device-related problems (12.1%). A total of 5624 people who received first ICDs during 2005-2020 (33.3%) died during follow-up (6.7 deaths per 100 person-years); the survival rate was 94.4% at one year, 76.5% at five years, and 54.2% at ten years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual number of new ICDs inserted in NSW has increased since 2005. A substantial proportion of recipients experience device-related problems that require re-admission to hospital. The potential harms of ICD insertion should be considered when assessing the likelihood of preventing fatal ventricular arrhythmia.

Coping with uncertainty in clinical practice: a narrative review.

Clinicians must make decisions amid the uncertainty that is ubiquitous to clinical practice. Uncertainty in clinical practice can assume many forms depending on its source, such as insufficient personal knowledge or scientific evidence, limited practical understanding or competence, challenging interpersonal relationships, and complexity and ambiguity in clinical encounters. The level and experience of uncertainty varies according to personal traits, clinical context, affective factors and sociocultural norms. Clinicians vary in their tolerance of uncertainty, and maladaptive responses may adversely affect patient care and clinician wellbeing. Various strategies can be used to minimise and manage, but not eliminate, uncertainty and to share uncertainty with patients without compromising the clinician-patient relationship or clinician credibility.

Future directions in cardiovascular disease risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Although the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) guidelines were published in 2012, many individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not prescribed preventive medication or have CVD risk factors recorded. Better use of CVD risk prediction tools and targeting of medication could reduce CVD. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to review recent developments in CVD risk prediction, including calculators developed in the USA, UK and New Zealand, and non-traditional tests for cardiovascular risk assessment. DISCUSSION: The Framingham Risk Equation explains much of the risk variance in the population but overestimates risk for a contemporary Australian population. Newer risk calculators show improvement in calibration. Individuals vary greatly in terms of whether they will find the potential benefits of taking medication worthwhile, and shared decision-making tools can help to clarify decision making.

Effect of two behavioural 'nudging' interventions on management decisions for low back pain: a randomised vignette-based study in general practitioners.

OBJECTIVE: 'Nudges' are subtle cognitive cues thought to influence behaviour. We investigated whether embedding nudges in a general practitioner (GP) clinical decision support display can reduce low-value management decisions . METHODS: Australian GPs completed four clinical vignettes of patients with low back pain. Participants chose from three guideline-concordant and three guideline-discordant (low-value) management options for each vignette, on a computer screen. A 2×2 factorial design randomised participants to two possible nudge interventions: 'partition display' nudge (low-value options presented horizontally, high-value options listed vertically) or 'default option' nudge (high-value options presented as the default, low-value options presented only after clicking for more). The primary outcome was the proportion of scenarios where practitioners chose at least one of the low-value care options. RESULTS: 120 GPs (72% male, 28% female) completed the trial (n=480 vignettes). Participants using a conventional menu display without nudges chose at least one low-value care option in 42% of scenarios. Participants exposed to the default option nudge were 44% less likely to choose at least one low-value care option (OR 0.56, 95%CI 0.37 to 0.85; p=0.006) compared with those not exposed. The partition display nudge had no effect on choice of low-value care (OR 1.08, 95%CI 0.72 to 1.64; p=0.7). There was no interaction between the nudges (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.41 to 2.15; p=0.89). INTERPRETATION: A default option nudge reduced the odds of choosing low-value options for low back pain in clinical vignettes. Embedding high value options as defaults in clinical decision support tools could improve quality of care. More research is needed into how nudges impact clinical decision-making in different contexts.

Systematic review of the effects of care provided with and without diagnostic clinical prediction rules.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are worthwhile if they improve patient outcomes or provide benefits such as reduced resource use, without harming patients. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of diagnostic CPRs on patient and process of care outcomes. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and a trial registry and performed citation and reference checks, for randomised trials comparing a diagnostic strategy with and without a CPR. Included studies were assessed for risk of bias and similar studies meta-analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies evaluating diagnostic CPRs for 14 conditions were included. A clinical management decision was the primary outcome in the majority of studies. Most studies were judged to be at high or uncertain risk of bias on ≥3 of 6 domains. Details of study interventions and implementation were infrequently reported.For suspected Group A Streptococcus throat infection, diagnostic CPRs reduced symptoms (1 study) and antibiotic prescriptions (5 studies, RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99). For suspected cardiac chest pain, diagnostic strategies incorporating a CPR improved early discharge rates (1 study), decreased objective cardiac testing (1 study) and decreased hospitalisations (1 study). For ankle injuries, Ottawa Ankle Rules reduced radiography when used with clinical examination (1 study) but had no effect on length of stay as a triage test (1 study). For suspected acute appendicitis, CPRs had no effect on rates of perforated appendix (1 study) or the number of non-therapeutic operations (5 studies, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.08). For suspected pneumonia, CPRs reduced antibiotic prescribing without unfavourable outcomes (3 studies). For children with possible serious bacterial infection, diagnostic CPRs did not improve process of care outcomes (3 studies). CONCLUSION: There are few randomised trials of diagnostic CPRs, and patient outcomes are infrequently reported. Diagnostic CPRs had a positive effect on process outcomes in some clinical conditions; however, many studies were at unclear or high risk of bias and the results may be context specific. Future studies should seek to detail how the CPR might alter the diagnostic pathway, report effects on both patient and process outcomes, and improve reporting of the study interventions and implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol for this review was not registered with PROSPERO, the international prospective register of systematic review protocols. The review was conceived and protocol prepared prior to the launch of PROSPERO in February 2011.

Expanding disease definitions in guidelines and expert panel ties to industry: a cross-sectional study of common conditions in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Financial ties between health professionals and industry may unduly influence professional judgments and some researchers have suggested that widening disease definitions may be one driver of over-diagnosis, bringing potentially unnecessary labeling and harm. We aimed to identify guidelines in which disease definitions were changed, to assess whether any proposed changes would increase the numbers of individuals considered to have the disease, whether potential harms of expanding disease definitions were investigated, and the extent of members' industry ties. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We undertook a cross-sectional study of the most recent publication between 2000 and 2013 from national and international guideline panels making decisions about definitions or diagnostic criteria for common conditions in the United States. We assessed whether proposed changes widened or narrowed disease definitions, rationales offered, mention of potential harms of those changes, and the nature and extent of disclosed ties between members and pharmaceutical or device companies. Of 16 publications on 14 common conditions, ten proposed changes widening and one narrowing definitions. For five, impact was unclear. Widening fell into three categories: creating "pre-disease"; lowering diagnostic thresholds; and proposing earlier or different diagnostic methods. Rationales included standardising diagnostic criteria and new evidence about risks for people previously considered to not have the disease. No publication included rigorous assessment of potential harms of proposed changes. Among 14 panels with disclosures, the average proportion of members with industry ties was 75%. Twelve were chaired by people with ties. For members with ties, the median number of companies to which they had ties was seven. Companies with ties to the highest proportions of members were active in the relevant therapeutic area. Limitations arise from reliance on only disclosed ties, and exclusion of conditions too broad to enable analysis of single panel publications. CONCLUSIONS: For the common conditions studied, a majority of panels proposed changes to disease definitions that increased the number of individuals considered to have the disease, none reported rigorous assessment of potential harms of that widening, and most had a majority of members disclosing financial ties to pharmaceutical companies. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A survey of resilience, burnout, and tolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice registrars.

BACKGROUND: Burnout and intolerance of uncertainty have been linked to low job satisfaction and lower quality patient care. While resilience is related to these concepts, no study has examined these three concepts in a cohort of doctors. The objective of this study was to measure resilience, burnout, compassion satisfaction, personal meaning in patient care and intolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice (GP) registrars. METHODS: We conducted a paper-based cross-sectional survey of GP registrars in Australia from June to July 2010, recruited from a newsletter item or registrar education events. Survey measures included the Resilience Scale-14, a single-item scale for burnout, Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) scale, Personal Meaning in Patient Care scale, Intolerance of Uncertainty-12 scale, and Physician Response to Uncertainty scale. RESULTS: 128 GP registrars responded (response rate 90%). Fourteen percent of registrars were found to be at risk of burnout using the single-item scale for burnout, but none met the criteria for burnout using the ProQOL scale. Secondary traumatic stress, general intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety due to clinical uncertainty and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients were associated with being at higher risk of burnout, but sex, age, practice location, training duration, years since graduation, and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to physicians were not.Only ten percent of registrars had high resilience scores. Resilience was positively associated with compassion satisfaction and personal meaning in patient care. Resilience was negatively associated with burnout, secondary traumatic stress, inhibitory anxiety, general intolerance to uncertainty, concern about bad outcomes and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. CONCLUSIONS: GP registrars in this survey showed a lower level of burnout than in other recent surveys of the broader junior doctor population in both Australia and overseas. Resilience was also lower than might be expected of a satisfied and professionally successful cohort.

Development and initial validation of a simple clinical decision tool to predict the presence of heart failure in primary care: the MICE (Male, Infarction, Crepitations, Edema) rule.

AIMS: Diagnosis of heart failure in primary care is often inaccurate, and access to and use of echocardiography is suboptimal. This study aimed to develop and provisionally validate a clinical prediction rule to optimize referral for echocardiography of people identified in primary care with suspected heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: A systematic review identified studies of diagnosis of heart failure set in primary care. The individual patient data for five of these studies were obtained. Logistic regression models to predict heart failure were developed on one of the data sets and validated on the others using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and goodness-of-fit calibration plots. A model based upon four simple clinical features (Male, history of myocardial Infarction, Crepitations, Edema: MICE) and natriuretic peptide had good validity when applied to other data sets, with AUROCs between 0.84 and 0.93, and reasonable calibration. The rule performed well across the data sets, with sensitivity between 81% and 96% and specificity between 57% and 74%. CONCLUSIONS: A simple clinical rule based upon gender, history of myocardial infarction, presence of ankle oedema, and presence of basal lung crepitations can discriminate between people with suspected heart failure who should be referred straight for echocardiography and people for whom referral should depend upon the result of a natriuretic peptide test. Prospective validation and an implementation evaluation of the rule is now warranted.

Scrub typhus serologic testing with the indirect immunofluorescence method as a diagnostic gold standard: a lack of consensus leads to a lot of confusion.

A review was performed to determine the evidence base for scrub typhus indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) methodologies and the criteria for positive results. This review included a total of 109 publications, which comprised 123 eligible studies for analysis (14 publications included 2 substudies). There was considerable underreporting of the IFA methodology and seropositivity criteria used, with most studies using a defined cutoff titer rather than an increase in the titer in paired samples. The choice of positivity cutoff titer varied by country and purpose of the IFA test. This variation limits the comparability of seroprevalence rates between studies and, more seriously, raises questions about the appropriateness of the cutoffs for positive IFA results chosen for diagnosis of acute scrub typhus infection. We suggest that the diagnosis of scrub typhus using IFA should be based on a > or =4-fold increase in the titer in paired serum samples and should only be based on a single sample titer when there is an adequate local evidence base.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of rapid immunochromatographic assays for the detection of dengue virus IgM antibodies during acute infection.

A meta-analysis of rapid (