Effectiveness of removals of the invasive lionfish: how many dives are needed to deplete a reef?

Introduced Indo-Pacific red lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have spread throughout the greater Caribbean and are associated with a number of negative impacts on reef ecosystems. Human interventions, in the form of culling activities, are becoming common to reduce their numbers and mitigate the negative effects associated with the invasion. However, marine managers must often decide how to best allocate limited resources. Previous work has identified the population size thresholds needed to limit the negative impacts of lionfish. Here we develop a framework that allows managers to predict the removal effort required to achieve specific targets (represented as the percent of lionfish remaining on the reef). We found an important trade-off between time spent removing and achieving an increasingly smaller lionfish density. The model used in our suggested framework requires relatively little data to parameterize, allowing its use with already existing data, permitting managers to tailor their culling strategy to maximize efficiency and rate of success.

Simulations indicate that scores of lionfish (Pterois volitans) colonized the Atlantic Ocean.

The invasion of the western Atlantic Ocean by the Indo-Pacific red lionfish (Pterois volitans) has had devastating consequences for marine ecosystems. Estimating the number of colonizing lionfish can be useful in identifying the introduction pathway and can inform policy decisions aimed at preventing similar invasions. It is well-established that at least ten lionfish were initially introduced. However, that estimate has not faced probabilistic scrutiny and is based solely on the number of haplotypes in the maternally-inherited mitochondrial control region. To rigorously estimate the number of lionfish that were introduced, we used a forward-time, Wright-Fisher, population genetic model in concert with a demographic, life-history model to simulate the invasion across a range of source population sizes and colonizing population fecundities. Assuming a balanced sex ratio and no Allee effects, the simulations indicate that the Atlantic population was founded by 118 (54-514, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean by 84 (22-328, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico by at least 114 (no upper bound on 95% HPD) lionfish from the Caribbean. Increasing the size, and therefore diversity, of the Indo-Pacific source population and fecundity of the founding population caused the number of colonists to decrease, but with rapidly diminishing returns. When the simulation was parameterized to minimize the number of colonists (high θ and relative fecundity), 96 (48-216, 95% HPD) colonists were most likely. In a more realistic scenario with Allee effects (e.g., 50% reduction in fecundity) plaguing the colonists, the most likely number of lionfish increased to 272 (106-950, 95% HPD). These results, in combination with other published data, support the hypothesis that lionfish were introduced to the Atlantic via the aquarium trade, rather than shipping. When building the model employed here, we made assumptions that minimize the number of colonists, such as the lionfish being introduced in a single event. While we conservatively modelled the introduction pathway as a single release of lionfish in one location, it is more likely that a combination of smaller and larger releases from a variety of aquarium trade stakeholders occurred near Miami, Florida, which could have led to even larger numbers of colonists than simulated here. Efforts to prevent future invasions via the aquarium trade should focus on the education of stakeholders and the prohibition of release, with adequate rewards for compliance and penalties for violations.

Kin-Aggregations Explain Chaotic Genetic Patchiness, a Commonly Observed Genetic Pattern, in a Marine Fish.

The phenomenon of chaotic genetic patchiness is a pattern commonly seen in marine organisms, particularly those with demersal adults and pelagic larvae. This pattern is usually associated with sweepstakes recruitment and variable reproductive success. Here we investigate the biological underpinnings of this pattern in a species of marine goby Coryphopterus personatus. We find that populations of this species show tell-tale signs of chaotic genetic patchiness including: small, but significant, differences in genetic structure over short distances; a non-equilibrium or "chaotic" pattern of differentiation among locations in space; and within locus, within population deviations from the expectations of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). We show that despite having a pelagic larval stage, and a wide distribution across Caribbean coral reefs, this species forms groups of highly related individuals at small spatial scales (<10 metres). These spatially clustered family groups cause the observed deviations from HWE and local population differentiation, a finding that is rarely demonstrated, but could be more common than previously thought.