Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change.

There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.

Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?

Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.

What is the real number of Lyme disease cases in Canada?

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is emerging in Canada due to expansion of the range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis from the United States. National surveillance for human Lyme disease cases began in Canada in 2009. Reported numbers of cases increased from 144 cases in 2009 to 2025 in 2017. It has been claimed that few (< 10%) Lyme disease cases are reported associated with i) supposed under-diagnosis resulting from perceived inadequacies of serological testing for Lyme disease, ii) expectation that incidence in Canadian provinces and neighbouring US states should be similar, and iii) analysis of serological responses of dogs to the agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi. We argue that performance of serological testing for Lyme disease is well studied, and variations in test performance at different disease stages are accounted for in clinical diagnosis of Lyme disease, and in surveillance case definitions. Extensive surveillance for tick vectors has taken place in Canada providing a clear picture of the emergence of risk in the Canadian environment. This surveillance shows that the geographic scope of I. scapularis populations and Lyme disease risk is limited but increasing in Canada. The reported incidence of Lyme disease in Canada is consistent with this pattern of environmental risk, and the differences in Lyme disease incidence between US states and neighbouring Canadian provinces are consistent with geographic differences in environmental risk. Data on serological responses in dogs from Canada and the US are consistent with known differences in environmental risk, and in numbers of reported Lyme disease cases, between the US and Canada. CONCLUSION: The high level of consistency in data from human case and tick surveillance, and data on serological responses in dogs, suggests that a high degree of under-reporting in Canada is unlikely. We speculate that approximately one third of cases are reported in regions of emergence of Lyme disease, although prospective studies are needed to fully quantify under-reporting. In the meantime, surveillance continues to identify and track the ongoing emergence of Lyme disease, and the risk to the public, in Canada.

GloPID-R report on Chikungunya, O'nyong-nyong and Mayaro virus, part I: Biological diagnostics.

The GloPID-R (Global Research Collaboration for Infectious Disease Preparedness) Chikungunya (CHIKV), O'nyong-nyong (ONNV) and Mayaro virus (MAYV) Working Group is investigating the natural history, epidemiology and medical management of infection by these viruses, to identify knowledge gaps and to propose recommendations for direct future investigations and rectification measures. Here, we present the first report dedicated to diagnostic aspects of CHIKV, ONNV and MAYV. Regarding diagnosis of the disease at the acute phase, molecular assays previously described for the three viruses require further evaluation, standardized protocols and the availability of international standards representing the genetic diversity of the viruses. Detection of specific IgM would benefit from further investigations to clarify the extent of cross-reactivity among the three viruses, the sensitivity of the assays, and the possible interfering role of cryoglobulinaemia. Implementation of reference panels and external quality assessments for both molecular and serological assays is necessary. Regarding sero-epidemiological studies, there is no reported high-throughput assay that can distinguish among these different viruses in areas of potential co-circulation. New specific tools and/or improved standardized protocols are needed to enable large-scale epidemiological studies of public health relevance to be performed. Considering the high risk of future CHIKV, MAYV and ONNV outbreaks, the Working Group recommends that a major investigation should be initiated to fill the existing diagnostic gaps.

Travel-related Zika virus cases in Canada: October 2015-June 2017.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne disease that can cause severe birth defects if contracted congenitally. Since late 2015, there has been a large increase in the number of travel-related cases of Zika virus infection in Canada. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of travel-related Zika cases in Canada from October 2015 to June 2017 and review them in the context of the international outbreak in the Americas. METHODS: Zika virus infections were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection of viral RNA and/or the serological identification of ZIKV-specific antibodies in serum. Cases of ZIKV infection were identified by provincial and territorial health authorities, and reported on a regular basis to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). Case information requested included date of illness onset, age category, sex, pregnancy status, and location(s) and dates of travel. Estimates for the monthly number of Canadians travelling outside of Canada to other countries in the Americas were obtained from Statistics Canada and the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Data to produce the epidemic curves of autochthonous cases for each region of the Americas were extracted from country-specific epidemic curves on the Pan American Health Organization website. RESULTS: As of June 7, 2017, 513 laboratory confirmed cases and two Zika-related birth/fetal anomalies were reported across all 10 provinces. Illness in Canadian travellers generally coincided with outbreak intensity in the country of exposure rather than travel volume. There has been no evidence of autochthonous (local) transmission in Canada. Currently, cases are on the decline both in Canada and internationally. CONCLUSION: The surge in Canadian ZIKV infections in 2016 was directly related to the incursion and spread of ZIKV into the Americas. Although cases are now on the decline worldwide, it remains to be seen whether a resurgence of cases in previously affected or new areas will occur. Both outbreak intensity and seasonality of ZIKV transmission should be monitored over time in order to inform the timing of public health education campaigns, as some may turn out to be more effective in the off-peak travel season when the risk of disease transmission may be higher. Ongoing education and awareness among travellers, particularly for pregnant women and those planning pregnancies, is still indicated.

Risk factors associated with seropositivity to California serogroup viruses in humans and pet dogs, Quebec, Canada.

Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses are two emerging human pathogens associated with cases of neuroinvasive disease in North America. This study aimed to identify environmental and individual risk factors for seropositivity to these arboviruses in humans and pet dogs from Québec, Canada, 2012-2014. In humans, areas with moderate densities of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were associated with higher odds of seropositivity compared with areas with low densities of white-tailed deer (OR 2.50, P = 0.009) and odds of seropositivity were higher in males than in females (OR 2.03, P = 0.016). Among humans reporting more than 10 mosquito bites weekly, the odds of being seropositive were 4.44 times higher (P = 0.004) for people living in hardwood forested areas. Exposure to areas with coniferous forests was identified as the main environmental risk factor for seroconversion in dogs (OR 2.39, P = 0.04). These findings may help target further public health research, diagnostic and surveillance efforts in Canada.

Emerging arboviruses in Quebec, Canada: assessing public health risk by serology in humans, horses and pet dogs.

Periodic outbreaks of West Nile virus (WNV), Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and to a lesser extent, California serogroup viruses (CSGV), have been reported in parts of Canada in the last decade. This study was designed to provide a broad assessment of arboviral activity in Quebec, Canada, by conducting serological surveys for these arboviruses in 196 horses, 1442 dogs and 485 humans. Sera were screened by a competitive enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and positive samples confirmed by plaque reduction neutralisation tests. The percentage of seropositive samples was 83·7%, 16·5%, 7·1% in horses, 18·8%, 0·6%, 0% in humans, 11·7%, 3·1%, 0% in adult dogs and 2·9%, 0·3%, 0% in juvenile dogs for CSGV, WNV and EEEV, respectively. Serological results in horses and dogs appeared to provide a meaningful assessment of risk to public health posed by multiple arboviruses.

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Characterizing areas of potential human exposure to eastern equine encephalitis virus using serological and clinical data from horses.

Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a rare but severe emerging vector-borne disease affecting human and animal populations in the northeastern United States where it is endemic. Key knowledge gaps remain about the epidemiology of EEE virus (EEEV) in areas where its emergence has more recently been reported. In Eastern Canada, viral activity has been recorded in mosquitoes and horses throughout the 2000s but cases of EEEV in humans have not been reported so far. This study was designed to provide an assessment of possible EEEV human exposure by modelling environmental risk factors for EEEV in horses, identifying high-risk environments and mapping risk in the province of Quebec, Canada. According to logistic models, being located near wooded swamps was a risk factor for seropositivity or disease in horses [odds ratio (OR) 4·15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·16-14·8) whereas being located on agricultural lands was identified as protective (OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·62-0·92). A better understanding of the environmental risk of exposure to EEEV in Canada provides veterinary and public health officials with enhanced means to more effectively monitor the emergence of this public health risk and design targeted surveillance and preventive measures.

Travel-related chikungunya cases in Canada, 2014.

Since the spring of 2014, there has been a large increase in travel-related chikungunya cases diagnosed in Canada. As of December 9, 2014, 320 confirmed and 159 probable cases have been diagnosed in Canada, with the majority of provinces identifying at least one imported case. This surge in Canadian infections has been associated with the incursion of chikungunya virus into the Caribbean and the expansion of the virus in the Americas. Ongoing outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific region have also contributed to imported cases among Canadian travellers. Heightened awareness of chikungunya among clinicians is key to diagnosis. This highlights the need to ask for a travel history from anyone who presents with fever or recent onset of polyarthralgia, and to consider testing by provincial laboratories and the National Microbiology Laboratory for chikungunya virus and other diseases as indicated. Also essential is continued communication with travellers regarding the use of preventative measures to decrease the risk of exposure to mosquitoes when travelling to endemic areas.

Emerging mosquito-borne bunyaviruses in Canada.

California serogroup and Cache Valley viruses are arboviruses (tick- and mosquito-borne pathogens) belonging to the genus Orthobunyavirus (Family Bunyaviridae). Although the majority of exposures to these viruses result in asymptomatic or mild infections, both California serogroup and Cache Valley viruses can cause febrile and neurological diseases similar in nature to those associated with infections by West Nile virus. California serogroup and Cache Valley viruses are widely distributed across North America and circulate in a number of vertebrate hosts and mosquito vectors, including several species of Aedes and other non-Culex mosquitoes. The Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses are the most common kind of California serogroup viruses found in Canada and have been identified throughout the country. These potential pathogens may be contributing to a higher burden of illness than previously recognized and should be considered as part of the differential diagnosis for febrile and neuroinvasive disease during the mosquito season. Diagnosis can be made by requesting a diagnostic panel at the Viral Zoonoses program at the National Microbiology Laboratory. To decrease the risk of infection, education about these viruses and the importance of personal preventive measures is warranted.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Canada: An overview of clinical features, diagnostics, epidemiology and prevention.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is a disease caused by the inhalation of excreta from infected deer mice. In Canada, the majority of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases occur in the western provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the primary cause of the illness is the Sin Nombre virus. Only one case of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome has been documented in eastern Canada (Québec); however, Sin Nombre virus-infected deer mice have been identified across the country. Although cases are rare (yearly case numbers range from zero to 13 and the total number of confirmed cases in Canada now total 109), the mortality rate among infected individuals is approximately 30%. The majority of cases occur in the spring and early summer indicating seasonally-associated risk factors for viral exposure. In 2013 and 2014, a substantial increase in the number of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases was identified; however the cause remains unclear. No antivirals or vaccines are currently available and treatment is supportive. Public education, rodent control and the use of personal protective measures are key to avoid infections in at-risk populations.

West Nile virus in Canada: ever-changing, but here to stay.

The incidence of West Nile virus (WNv) has waxed and waned in Canada over the past 12 years, but it is unlikely to disappear. Climate change models, which suggest warming temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation, predict an expansion of geographic range for WNv in some regions of Canada, such as the Prairie provinces. Such projected changes in WNv distribution might also be accompanied by genetic changes in the virus and/or the range of bird and insect host species it infects. To address this risk, emphasis should be placed on preventing exposure to infected mosquitoes, conducting high-quality surveillance of WNv and WNv disease, controlling mosquito vectors, and promoting public and professional education.

CHIKUNGUNYA OUTBREAK IN THE CARIBBEAN 2013-2014.

BACKGROUND: In December 2013, the local transmission of the mosquito-borne chikungunya virus was confirmed for the first time in several Caribbean islands. OBJECTIVE: To outline what is known to date on the outbreak of chikungunya in the Caribbean, and identify what is being done to detect and limit this infection. RESULTS: PAHO/WHO has recommended that chikungunya surveillance be set up in countries where there is existing dengue surveillance. Prospective travellers should be advised to take personal protective measures to avoid mosquito bites to decrease risk of exposure. Patients typically present with fever and arthralgia. If there is a positive travel history, serology for both chikungunya and dengue virus infection should be considered after consultation with local public health officials. Treatment is supportive. Transmission in Canada is not expected. CONCLUSION: Clinicians and public health professionals in Canada should be on the alert for sporadic cases of chikungunya virus in patients who present with fever and arthralgias after a stay in an affected Caribbean island.

Case definitions, diagnostic algorithms, and priorities in encephalitis: consensus statement of the international encephalitis consortium.

BACKGROUND: Encephalitis continues to result in substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Advances in diagnosis and management have been limited, in part, by a lack of consensus on case definitions, standardized diagnostic approaches, and priorities for research. METHODS: In March 2012, the International Encephalitis Consortium, a committee begun in 2010 with members worldwide, held a meeting in Atlanta to discuss recent advances in encephalitis and to set priorities for future study. RESULTS: We present a consensus document that proposes a standardized case definition and diagnostic guidelines for evaluation of adults and children with suspected encephalitis. In addition, areas of research priority, including host genetics and selected emerging infections, are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate that this document, representing a synthesis of our discussions and supported by literature, will serve as a practical aid to clinicians evaluating patients with suspected encephalitis and will identify key areas and approaches to advance our knowledge of encephalitis.

Epidemiology and aetiology of encephalitis in Canada, 1994-2008: a case for undiagnosed arboviral agents?

Encephalitis is a clinical syndrome often associated with infectious agents. This study describes the epidemiology and disease burden associated with encephalitis in Canada and explores possible associations with arboviral causes. Encephalitis-associated hospitalizations, 1994-2008, were analysed according to aetiological category (based on ICD-9/ICD-10 codes) and other factors using multivariate logistic regression for grouped (blocked) data and negative binomial regression. A discrete Poisson model tested spatio-temporal clustering of hospitalizations associated with unclassified and arboviral encephalitis aetiologies. Encephalitis accounted for an estimated 24028 hospitalizations in Canada (5·2/100 000 population) and unknown aetiologies represented 50% of these hospitalizations. In 2003, clusters of unclassified encephalitis were identified in the summer and early autumn months signifying potential underlying arboviral aetiologies. Spatio-temporal patterns in encephalitis hospitalizations may help us to better understand the disease burden associated with arboviruses and other zoonotic pathogens in Canada and to develop appropriate surveillance systems.

Investigation of genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi in Ixodes scapularis ticks collected during surveillance in Canada.

The genetic diversity of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the agent of Lyme disease in North America, has consequences for the performance of serological diagnostic tests and disease severity. To investigate B. burgdorferi diversity in Canada, where Lyme disease is emerging, bacterial DNA in 309 infected adult Ixodes scapularis ticks collected in surveillance was characterized by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and analysis of outer surface protein C gene (ospC) alleles. Six ticks carried Borrelia miyamotoi, and one tick carried the novel species Borrelia kurtenbachii. 142 ticks carried B. burgdorferi sequence types (STs) previously described from the United States. Fifty-eight ticks carried B. burgdorferi of 1 of 19 novel or undescribed STs, which were single-, double-, or triple-locus variants of STs first described in the United States. Clonal complexes with founder STs from the United States were identified. Seventeen ospC alleles were identified in 309 B. burgdorferi-infected ticks. Positive and negative associations in the occurrence of different alleles in the same tick supported a hypothesis of multiple-niche polymorphism for B. burgdorferi in North America. Geographic analysis of STs and ospC alleles were consistent with south-to-north dispersion of infected ticks from U.S. sources on migratory birds. These observations suggest that the genetic diversity of B. burgdorferi in eastern and central Canada corresponds to that in the United States, but there was evidence for founder events skewing the diversity in emerging tick populations. Further studies are needed to investigate the significance of these observations for the performance of diagnostic tests and clinical presentation of Lyme disease in Canada.

Ixodes scapularis ticks collected by passive surveillance in Canada: analysis of geographic distribution and infection with Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi.

Passive surveillance for the occurrence of the tick Ixodes scapularis Say (1821) and their infection with the Lyme borreliosis spirochaetes Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. has taken place in Canada since early 1990. Ticks have been submitted from members of the public, veterinarians, and medical practitioners to provincial, federal, and university laboratories for identification, and the data have been collated and B. burgdorferi detected at the National Microbiology Laboratory. The locations of collection of 2,319 submitted I. scapularis were mapped, and we investigated potential risk factors for I. scapularis occurrence (in Quebec as a case study) by using regression analysis and spatial statistics. Ticks were submitted from all provinces east of Alberta, most from areas where resident I. scapularis populations are unknown. Most were adult ticks and were collected in spring and autumn. In southern Québec, risk factors for tick occurrence were lower latitude and remote-sensed indices for land cover with woodland. B. burgdorferi infection, identified by conventional and molecular methods, was detected in 12.5% of 1,816 ticks, including 10.1% of the 256 ticks that were collected from humans and tested. Our study suggests that B. burgdorferi-infected I. scapularis can be found over a wide geographic range in Canada, although most may be adventitious ticks carried from endemic areas in the United States and Canada by migrating birds. The risk of Lyme borreliosis in Canada may therefore be mostly low but more geographically widespread than previously suspected.