Mortality following myocardial infarction among HIV-infected persons: the Center for AIDS Research Network Of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS).

BACKGROUND: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have higher risks for myocardial infarction (MI) than the general population. This is driven in part by higher type 2 MI (T2MI, due to coronary supply-demand mismatch) rates among persons with HIV (PWH). In the general population, T2MI has higher mortality than type 1 MI (T1MI, spontaneous and generally due to plaque rupture and thrombosis). PWH have a greater burden of comorbidities and may therefore have an even greater excess risk for complication and death in the setting of T2MI. However, mortality patterns after T1MI and T2MI in HIV are unknown. METHODS: We analyzed mortality after MI among PWH enrolled in the multicenter, US-based Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort (N = 28,186). Incident MIs occurring between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2014, were centrally adjudicated and classified as T1MI or T2MI. We first compared mortality following T1MI vs. T2MI among PWH. Cox survival analyses and Bayesian model averaging were then used to evaluate pre-MI covariates associated with mortality following T1MI and T2MI. RESULTS: Among the 596 out of 28,186 PWH who experienced MI (2.1%; 293 T1MI and 303 T2MI), mortality rates were significantly greater after T2MI (22.2/100 person-years; 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality 39%, 52%, and 62%) than T1MI (8.2/100 person-years; 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality 15%, 22%, and 30%). Significant mortality predictors after T1MI were higher HIV viral load, renal dysfunction, and older age. Significant predictors of mortality after T2MI were low body-mass index (BMI) and detectable HIV viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is high following MI for PWH and substantially greater after T2MI than T1MI. Predictors of death after MI differed by type of MI, reinforcing the different clinical scenarios associated with each MI type and the importance of considering MI types separately.

Association Between Bilirubin, Atazanavir, and Cardiovascular Disease Events Among People Living With HIV Across the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Bilirubin is an antioxidant that may suppress lipid oxidation. Elevated bilirubin is associated with decreased cardiovascular events in HIV-uninfected populations. We examined these associations in people living with HIV (PLWH). METHODS: Potential myocardial infarctions (MIs) and strokes were centrally adjudicated. We examined MI types: type 1 MI (T1MI) from atherosclerotic plaque instability and type 2 MI (T2MI) in the setting of oxygen demand/supply mismatch such as sepsis. We used multivariable Cox regression analyses to determine associations between total bilirubin levels and outcomes adjusting for traditional and HIV-specific risk factors. To minimize confounding by hepatobiliary disease, we conducted analyses limited to bilirubin values <2.1 mg/dL; among those with fibrosis-4 values <3.25; and among everyone. We repeated analyses stratified by hepatitis C status and time-updated atazanavir use. RESULTS: Among 25,816 PLWH, there were 392 T1MI and 356 T2MI during follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for the association of higher bilirubin levels with T1MI were not significant. Higher bilirubin levels were associated with T2MI. By contrast, among PLWH on atazanavir, higher bilirubin levels were associated with fewer T2MI (hazard ratio 0.56:0.33-1.00). Higher bilirubin levels among those on atazanavir were associated with fewer T1MI combined with ischemic stroke. LIMITATIONS: Analyses were conducted with total rather than unconjugated bilirubin. CONCLUSIONS: Among PLWH, higher bilirubin levels were associated with T2MI among some subgroups. However, among those on atazanavir, there was a protective association between bilirubin and T2MI. These findings demonstrate different associations between outcomes and elevated bilirubin due to diverse causes and the importance of distinguishing MI types.

Emulating a trial of joint dynamic strategies: An application to monitoring and treatment of HIV-positive individuals.

Decisions about when to start or switch a therapy often depend on the frequency with which individuals are monitored or tested. For example, the optimal time to switch antiretroviral therapy depends on the frequency with which HIV-positive individuals have HIV RNA measured. This paper describes an approach to use observational data for the comparison of joint monitoring and treatment strategies and applies the method to a clinically relevant question in HIV research: when can monitoring frequency be decreased and when should individuals switch from a first-line treatment regimen to a new regimen? We outline the target trial that would compare the dynamic strategies of interest and then describe how to emulate it using data from HIV-positive individuals included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. When, as in our example, few individuals follow the dynamic strategies of interest over long periods of follow-up, we describe how to leverage an additional assumption: no direct effect of monitoring on the outcome of interest. We compare our results with and without the "no direct effect" assumption. We found little differences on survival and AIDS-free survival between strategies where monitoring frequency was decreased at a CD4 threshold of 350 cells/µl compared with 500 cells/µl and where treatment was switched at an HIV-RNA threshold of 1000 copies/ml compared with 200 copies/ml. The "no direct effect" assumption resulted in efficiency improvements for the risk difference estimates ranging from an 7- to 53-fold increase in the effective sample size.

Cumulative Human Immunodeficiency Viremia, Antiretroviral Therapy, and Incident Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV are at risk of increased myocardial infarction (MI). Cumulative HIV viral load (VL) has been proposed as a better measure of HIV inflammation than other measures of VL, like baseline VL, but its associations with MI are not known. METHODS: The multisite Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort includes clinical data and centrally adjudicated MI with distinction between atheroembolic MI (type 1) and MI related to supply-demand mismatch (type 2). We examined CNICS participants who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. Cumulative VL (copy-days of virus) from 6 months after enrollment was estimated with a time-weighted sum using the trapezoidal rule. We modeled associations of cumulative and baseline VL with MI by type using marginal structural Cox models. We contrasted the 75% percentile of the VL distribution with the 25% percentile. RESULTS: Among 11,324 participants, 218 MIs occurred between 1996 and 2016. Higher cumulative VL was associated with risk of all MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26, 2.36), type 1 MI (HR = 1.23; 95% CI = 0.78, 1.96), and type 2 MI (HR = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.74, 3.66). While off ART, cumulative VL had a stronger association with type 1 MI (HR = 2.13; 95% CI = 1.15, 3.94) than type 2 MI (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 0.70, 2.25). Baseline VL was associated with all MI (HR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.28, 2.01), type 1 MI (HR = 1.73; 95% CI = 1.26, 2.38), and type 2 MI (HR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.08). CONCLUSIONS: Higher cumulative and baseline VL is associated with all MI, with a particularly strong association between cumulative VL and type 2 MI.

Differentiation of Type 1 and Type 2 Myocardial Infarctions Among HIV-Infected Patients Requires Adjudication Due to Overlap in Risk Factors.

The Universal Myocardial infarction (MI) definition divides MIs into different types. Type 1 MIs (T1MI) result spontaneously from atherosclerotic plaque instability. Type 2 MIs (T2MI) are due to secondary causes of myocardial oxygen demand/supply mismatch such as occurs with sepsis. T2MI are much more common among those with HIV than in the general population. T1MI and T2MI have different mechanisms, risk factors, and potential treatments suggesting that they should be distinguished to achieve a better scientific understanding of MIs in HIV. We sought to determine whether MI type could be accurately predicted by patient characteristics without adjudication in HIV-infected individuals. We developed a statistical model to predict T2MI versus T1MI using adjudicated events from six sites utilizing demographic characteristics, traditional cardiovascular, and HIV-related risk factors. Validation was assessed in a seventh site via mean calibration, and discrimination level was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC). Of 812 MIs, 388 were T2MI. HIV-related factors including hepatitis C infection were predictive of T2MI, whereas traditional cardiovascular risk factors including total cholesterol predicted T1MI. The score predicted 69 T2MI in the validation sample resulting in poor calibration, given that 90 T2MIs were observed. The development sample AUC was 0.75 versus 0.65 in the validation sample, suggesting relatively poor discrimination. The level of discrimination to predict MI type based on patient characteristics is insufficient for individual level prediction. Adjudication is required to distinguish MI types, which is necessary to advance understanding of this important outcome among HIV populations.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol response after statin initiation among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses of general population studies report mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reductions of 30% to <50% with moderate-intensity and ≥50% with high-intensity statins. Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) are at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), yet many have elevated LDL-C. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate LDL-C response after statin initiation among PLWH. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLWH initiating statins between 2009 and 2013 (N = 706). Patients were categorized into mutually exclusive groups in the following hierarchy: history of coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes, prestatin LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL, 10-year predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5%, and none of the above (ie, unknown statin indication). The primary outcome was a ≥30% reduction in LDL-C after statin initiation. RESULTS: Among patients initiating statins, 5.8% had a history of CHD, 13.6% had diabetes, 6.2% had LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL, 35.4% had 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%, and 39.0% had an unknown statin indication. Among patients with a history of CHD, 31.7% achieved a ≥30% LDL-C reduction compared with 25.0%, 59.1%, and 33.9% among those with diabetes, LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL, and 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%, respectively. In multivariable adjusted analyses and compared to patients with an unknown statin indication, LDL-C ≥ 190 mg/dL was associated with a prevalence ratio for an LDL-C reduction ≥30% of 1.81 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.45), whereas no statistically significant association was present for history of CHD, diabetes, and 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. CONCLUSION: A low percentage of PLWH achieved the expected reductions in LDL-C after statin initiation, highlighting an unmet need for ASCVD risk reduction.

Recent Abacavir Use Increases Risk of Type 1 and Type 2 Myocardial Infarctions Among Adults With HIV.

BACKGROUND: There is persistent confusion as to whether abacavir (ABC) increases the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), and whether such risk differs by type 1 (T1MI) or 2 (T2MI) MI in adults with HIV. METHODS: Incident MIs in North American Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design participants were identified from 2001 to 2013. Discrete time marginal structural models addressed channeling biases and time-dependent confounding to estimate crude hazard ratio (HR) and adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals; analyses were performed for T1MI and T2MI separately. A sensitivity analysis evaluated whether Framingham risk score (FRS) modified the effect of ABC on MI occurrence. RESULTS: Eight thousand two hundred sixty-five adults who initiated antiretroviral therapy contributed 29,077 person-years and 123 MI events (65 T1MI and 58 T2MI). Median follow-up time was 2.9 (interquartile range 1.4-5.1) years. ABC initiators were more likely to have a history of injection drug use, hepatitis C virus infection, hypertension, diabetes, impaired kidney function, hyperlipidemia, low (<200 cells/mm) CD4 counts, and a history of AIDS. The risk of the combined MI outcome was greater for persons who used ABC in the previous 6 months [aHR = 1.84 (1.17-2.91)]; and persisted for T1MI (aHR = 1.62 [1.01]) and T2MI [aHR = 2.11 (1.08-4.29)]. FRS did not modify the effect of ABC on MI (P = 0.14) and inclusion of FRS in the MSM did not diminish the effect of recent ABC use on the combined outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Recent ABC use was associated with MI after adjustment for known risk factors and for FRS. However, screening for T1MI risks may not identify all or even most persons at risk of ABC use-associated MIs.

Evaluating the Population Impact on Racial/Ethnic Disparities in HIV in Adulthood of Intervening on Specific Targets: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework.

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data.

Increased Risk of Myocardial Infarction in HIV-Infected Individuals in North America Compared With the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among HIV-infected individuals have been limited by the inability to validate and differentiate atherosclerotic type 1 myocardial infarctions (T1MIs) from other events. We sought to define the incidence of T1MIs and risk attributable to traditional and HIV-specific factors among participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) and compare adjusted incidence rates (IRs) to the general population Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. METHODS: We ascertained and adjudicated incident MIs among individuals enrolled in 7 NA-ACCORD cohorts between 1995 and 2014. We calculated IRs, adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs), and 95% confidence intervals of risk factors for T1MI using Poisson regression. We compared aIRRs of T1MIs in NA-ACCORD with those from ARIC. RESULTS: Among 29,169 HIV-infected individuals, the IR for T1MIs was 2.57 (2.30 to 2.86) per 1000 person-years, and the aIRR was significantly higher compared with participants in ARIC [1.30 (1.09 to 1.56)]. In multivariable analysis restricted to HIV-infected individuals and including traditional CVD risk factors, the rate of T1MI increased with decreasing CD4 count [≥500 cells/µL: ref; 350-499 cells/µL: aIRR = 1.32 (0.98 to 1.77); 200-349 cells/µL: aIRR = 1.37 (1.01 to 1.86); 100-199 cells/µL: aIRR = 1.60 (1.09 to 2.34); <100 cells/µL: aIRR = 2.19 (1.44 to 3.33)]. Risk associated with detectable HIV RNA [<400 copies/mL: ref; ≥400 copies/mL: aIRR = 1.36 (1.06 to 1.75)] was significantly increased only when CD4 was excluded. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of T1MI in HIV-infected individuals and increased risk associated with lower CD4 count and detectable HIV RNA suggest that early suppressive antiretroviral treatment and aggressive management of traditional CVD risk factors are necessary to maximally reduce MI risk.

Comparison of dynamic monitoring strategies based on CD4 cell counts in virally suppressed, HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high-income countries: a prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines vary with respect to the optimal monitoring frequency of HIV-positive individuals. We compared dynamic monitoring strategies based on time-varying CD4 cell counts in virologically suppressed HIV-positive individuals. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data from prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe (France, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK) and North and South America (Brazil, Canada, and the USA) in The HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. We compared three monitoring strategies that differ in the threshold used to measure CD4 cell count and HIV RNA viral load every 3-6 months (when below the threshold) or every 9-12 months (when above the threshold). The strategies were defined by the threshold CD4 counts of 200 cells per µL, 350 cells per µL, and 500 cells per µL. Using inverse probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of death and of AIDS-defining illness or death, risk ratios of virological failure, and mean differences in CD4 cell count. FINDINGS: 47 635 individuals initiated an antiretroviral therapy regimen between Jan 1, 2000, and Jan 9, 2015, and met the eligibility criteria for inclusion in our study. During follow-up, CD4 cell count was measured on average every 4·0 months and viral load every 3·8 months. 464 individuals died (107 in threshold 200 strategy, 157 in threshold 350, and 200 in threshold 500) and 1091 had AIDS-defining illnesses or died (267 in threshold 200 strategy, 365 in threshold 350, and 459 in threshold 500). Compared with threshold 500, the mortality HR was 1·05 (95% CI 0·86-1·29) for threshold 200 and 1·02 (0·91·1·14) for threshold 350. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·08 (0·95-1·22) for threshold 200 and 1·03 (0·96-1·12) for threshold 350. Compared with threshold 500, the 24 month risk ratios of virological failure (viral load more than 200 copies per mL) were 2·01 (1·17-3·43) for threshold 200 and 1·24 (0·89-1·73) for threshold 350, and 24 month mean CD4 cell count differences were 0·4 (-25·5 to 26·3) cells per µL for threshold 200 and -3·5 (-16·0 to 8·9) cells per µL for threshold 350. INTERPRETATION: Decreasing monitoring to annually when CD4 count is higher than 200 cells per µL compared with higher than 500 cells per µL does not worsen the short-term clinical and immunological outcomes of virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals. However, more frequent virological monitoring might be necessary to reduce the risk of virological failure. Further follow-up studies are needed to establish the long-term safety of these strategies. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Comparative effectiveness of single versus multiple tablet antiretroviral therapy regimens in clinical HIV practice.

We determined risk of virologic failure (VF) in individuals initiating tenofovir/emtricitabine/efavirenz as single versus multiple tablet regimens (MTR). We found no significant difference in the risk of VF, though did observe a trend toward more VF and M184 V mutations among persons initiating MTR. Temporal trends in care may have confounded results.

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Hazardous Alcohol Use Among Persons Living with HIV Across the US in the Current Era of Antiretroviral Treatment.

Hazardous alcohol use is associated with detrimental health outcomes among persons living with HIV (PLWH). We examined the prevalence and factors associated with hazardous alcohol use in the current era using several hazardous drinking definitions and binge drinking defined as ≥5 drinks for men versus ≥4 for women. We included 8567 PLWH from 7 U.S. sites from 2013 to 2015. Current hazardous alcohol use was reported by 27% and 34% reported binge drinking. In adjusted analyses, current and past cocaine/crack (odd ratio [OR] 4.1:3.3-5.1, p < 0.001 and OR 1.3:1.1-1.5, p < 0.001 respectively), marijuana (OR 2.5:2.2-2.9, p < 0.001 and OR 1.4:1.2-1.6, p < 0.001), and cigarette use (OR 1.4:1.2-1.6, p < 0.001 and OR 1.3:1.2-1.5, p < 0.001) were associated with increased hazardous alcohol use. The prevalence of hazardous alcohol use remains high in the current era, particularly among younger men. Routine screening and targeted interventions for hazardous alcohol use, potentially bundled with interventions for other drugs, remain a key aspect of HIV care.

Associations Between At-Risk Alcohol Use, Substance Use, and Smoking with Lipohypertrophy and Lipoatrophy Among Patients Living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy and illicit drug use, smoking, and at-risk alcohol use among a large diverse cohort of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in clinical care. METHODS: 7,931 PLWH at six sites across the United States completed 21,279 clinical assessments, including lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, drug/alcohol use, physical activity level, and smoking. Lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy were measured using the FRAM body morphology instrument and associations were assessed with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Lipohypertrophy (33% mild, 4% moderate-to-severe) and lipoatrophy (20% mild, 3% moderate-to-severe) were common. Older age, male sex, and higher current CD4 count were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.03). Prior methamphetamine or marijuana use, and prior and current cocaine use, were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.009). Older age, detectable viral load, and low current CD4 cell counts were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.003). In addition, current smoking and marijuana and opiate use were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.03). Patients with very low physical activity levels had more severe lipohypertrophy and also more severe lipoatrophy than those with all other activity levels (p values <.001). For example, the lipohypertrophy score of those reporting high levels of physical activity was on average 1.6 points lower than those reporting very low levels of physical activity (-1.6, 95% CI: -1.8 to -1.4, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We found a high prevalence of lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy among a nationally distributed cohort of PLWH. While low levels of physical activity were associated with both lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, associations with substance use and other clinical characteristics differed between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy. These results support the conclusion that lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy are distinct, and highlight differential associations with specific illicit drug use.

Types of Myocardial Infarction Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals in the United States.

Importance: The Second Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) divides MIs into different types. Type 1 MIs result spontaneously from instability of atherosclerotic plaque, whereas type 2 MIs occur in the setting of a mismatch between oxygen demand and supply, as with severe hypotension. Type 2 MIs are uncommon in the general population, but their frequency in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals is unknown. Objectives: To characterize MIs, including type; identify causes of type 2 MIs; and compare demographic and clinical characteristics among HIV-infected individuals with type 1 vs type 2 MIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal study identified potential MIs among patients with HIV receiving clinical care at 6 US sites from January 1, 1996, to March 1, 2014, using diagnoses and cardiac biomarkers recorded in the centralized data repository. Sites assembled deidentified packets, including physician notes and electrocardiograms, procedures, and clinical laboratory tests. Two physician experts adjudicated each event, categorizing each definite or probable MI as type 1 or type 2 and identifying the causes of type 2 MI. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number and proportion of type 1 vs type 2 MIs, demographic and clinical characteristics among those with type 1 vs type 2 MIs, and the causes of type 2 MIs. Results: Among 571 patients (median age, 49 years [interquartile range, 43-55 years]; 430 men and 141 women) with definite or probable MIs, 288 MIs (50.4%) were type 2 and 283 (49.6%) were type 1. In analyses of type 1 MIs, 79 patients who underwent cardiac interventions, such as coronary artery bypass graft surgery, were also included, totaling 362 patients. Sepsis or bacteremia (100 [34.7%]) and recent use of cocaine or other illicit drugs (39 [13.5%]) were the most common causes of type 2 MIs. A higher proportion of patients with type 2 MIs were younger than 40 years (47 of 288 [16.3%] vs 32 of 362 [8.8%]) and had lower current CD4 cell counts (median, 230 vs 383 cells/µL), lipid levels (mean [SD] total cholesterol level, 167 [63] vs 190 [54] mg/dL, and mean (SD) Framingham risk scores (8% [7%] vs 10% [8%]) than those with type 1 MIs or who underwent cardiac interventions. Conclusions and Relevance: Approximately half of all MIs among HIV-infected individuals were type 2 MIs caused by heterogeneous clinical conditions, including sepsis or bacteremia and recent use of cocaine or other illicit drugs. Demographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors among those with type 1 and type 2 MIs differed, suggesting the need to specifically consider type among HIV-infected individuals to further understand MI outcomes and to guide prevention and treatment.

Assessing and Refining Myocardial Infarction Risk Estimation Among Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Study by the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems.

Importance: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that is treated with antiretroviral therapy have improved longevity but face an elevated risk of myocardial infarction (MI) due to common MI risk factors and HIV-specific factors. Despite these elevated MI rates, optimal methods to predict MI risks for HIV-infected persons remain unclear. Objective: To determine the extent to which existing and de novo estimation tools predict MI in a multicenter HIV cohort with rigorous MI adjudication. Design, Setting, and Participants: We evaluated the performance of standard of care and 2 new data-derived MI risk estimation models in 5 Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites across the United States where a multicenter clinical prospective cohort of 19 829 HIV-infected adults received care in inpatient and outpatient settings since 1995. The new risk estimation models were validated in a separate cohort from the derivation cohort. Exposures: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors, HIV viral load, CD4 lymphocyte count, statin use, antihypertensive use, and antiretroviral medication use were used to calculate predicted event rates. Main Outcomes and Measures: We observed MI rates over the course of follow-up that were scaled to 10 years using the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino Kaplan-Meier approach to account for dropout and loss to follow-up before 10 years. Results: Of the 11 288 patients with complete baseline data, 6904 were white and 9250 were men. Myocardial infarction rates were higher among black men (6.9 per 1000 person-years) and black women (7.2 per 1000 person-years) than white men (4.4 per 1000 person-years) and white women (3.3 per 1000 person-years), older participants (7.5 vs 2.2 MI per 1000 person-years for adults 40 years and older vs < 40 years old at study entry, respectively), and participants who were not virally suppressed (6.3 vs 4.7 per 1000 person-years for participants with and without detectable viral load, respectively). The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations, which predict composite rates of MI and stroke, adequately discriminated MI risk (Harrell C statistic = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Two data-derived models incorporating HIV-specific covariates exhibited weak calibration in a validation sample and did not discriminate risk any better (Harrell C statistic = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78 and 0.73; 95% CI, 0.68-0.79) than the Pooled Cohort Equations. The Pooled Cohort Equations were moderately calibrated in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Clinical Systems but predicted consistently lower MI rates. Conclusions and Relevance: The Pooled Cohort Equations discriminated MI risk and were moderately calibrated in this multicenter HIV cohort. Adding HIV-specific factors did not improve model performance. As HIV-infected cohorts capture and assess MI and stroke outcomes, researchers should revisit the performance of risk estimation tools.

Brief Report: Factors Associated With the Selection of Initial Antiretroviral Therapy From 2009 to 2012.

We examined factors associated with selection of initial antiretroviral regimen in the CNICS cohort. Patients initiating antiretroviral therapy between July 2009 and December 2012 were classified as receiving a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-, boosted protease inhibitor (PI)-, or raltegravir-based regimen. Among 873 patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, 488 regimens contained an NNRTI, 319 a boosted PI, and 66 raltegravir. Patients with depression and women were less likely to receive an NNRTI, whereas those with underlying cardiovascular disease, liver disease, and those coinfected with hepatitis C were more likely to receive raltegravir. Those with baseline viral load >100,000 c/ml and those with substance use were more likely to receive a boosted PI. Thus, in the "real world," ARV regimen choices appear to take into account adverse effects and patient baseline characteristics. Factors that impact initial regimen selection will likely become more heterogeneous over time as more choices for HIV therapy become available.

Not all non-drinkers with HIV are equal: demographic and clinical comparisons among current non-drinkers with and without a history of prior alcohol use disorders.

Studies of persons living with HIV (PLWH) have compared current non-drinkers to at-risk drinkers without differentiating whether current non-drinkers had a prior alcohol use disorder (AUD). The purpose of this study was to compare current non-drinkers with and without a prior AUD on demographic and clinical characteristics to understand the impact of combining them. We included data from six sites across the US from 1/2013 to 3/2015. Patients completed tablet-based clinical assessments at routine clinic appointments using the most recent assessment. Current non-drinkers were identified by AUDIT-C scores of 0. We identified a prior probable AUD by a prior AUD diagnosis in the electronic medical record (EMR) or a report of attendance at alcohol treatment in the clinical assessment. We used multivariate logistic regression to examine factors associated with prior AUD. Among 2235 PLWH who were current non-drinkers, 36% had a prior AUD with more patients with an AUD identified by the clinical assessment than the EMR. Higher proportions with a prior AUD were male, depressed, and reported current drug use compared to non-drinkers without a prior AUD. Former cocaine/crack (70% vs. 25%), methamphetamine/crystal (49% vs. 16%), and opioid/heroin use (35% vs. 7%) were more commonly reported by those with a prior AUD. In adjusted analyses, male sex, past methamphetamine/crystal use, past marijuana use, past opioid/heroin use, past and current cocaine/crack use, and cigarette use were associated with a prior AUD. In conclusion, this study found that among non-drinking PLWH in routine clinical care, 36% had a prior AUD. We found key differences between those with and without prior AUD in demographic and clinical characteristics, including drug use and depression. These results suggest that non-drinkers are heterogeneous and need further differentiation in studies and that prior alcohol misuse (including alcohol treatment) should be included in behavioural health assessments as part of clinical care.

Changes in Clinical Context for Kaposi's Sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Among People With HIV Infection in the United States.

PURPOSE: The biology of HIV-associated cancers may differ depending on immunologic and virologic context during development. Therefore, an understanding of the burden of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) relative to antiretroviral therapy (ART), virologic suppression, and CD4 count is important. PATIENTS AND METHODS: KS and NHL diagnoses during 1996 to 2011 were identified among patients with HIV infection in eight clinical cohorts in the United States. Among patients in routine HIV clinical care, the proportion of cases in categories of ART use, HIV RNA, and CD4 count at diagnosis were described across calendar time. Person-time and incidence rates were calculated for each category. RESULTS: We identified 466 patients with KS and 258 with NHL. In recent years, KS was more frequently diagnosed after ART initiation (55% in 1996 to 2001 v 76% in 2007 to 2011; P-trend = .02). The proportion of patients with NHL who received ART was higher but stable over time (83% overall; P-trend = .81). An increasing proportion of KS and NHL occurred at higher CD4 counts (P < .05 for KS and NHL) and with undetectable HIV RNA (P < .05 for KS and NHL). In recent years, more person-time was contributed by patients who received ART, had high CD4 counts and had undetectable HIV RNA, whereas incidence rates in these same categories remained stable or declined. CONCLUSION: Over time, KS and NHL occurred at higher CD4 counts and lower HIV RNA values, and KS occurred more frequently after ART initiation. These changes were driven by an increasing proportion of patients with HIV who received effective ART, had higher CD4 counts, and had suppressed HIV RNA and not by increases in cancer risk within these subgroups. An improved understanding of HIV-associated cancer pathogenesis and outcomes in the context of successful ART is therefore important.

Short Communication: Effect of Antiretroviral Therapy on Circulating Damage-Associated Molecular Pattern Molecules and CD4 Immune Reconstitution in HIV-Infected Individuals.

We examined levels of the damage-associated molecular pattern molecules, HMGB1 and S100A9, in individuals for whom stored samples were available before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, to determine their association with CD4 reconstitution. Mean HMGB1 levels (1.95 ng/ml vs. 3.02 ng/ml) and the proportion of individuals with detectable S100A9 (19.6% vs. 43.1%) significantly increased after ART. Detectable post-ART S100A9 was independently associated with impaired immune reconstitution.

When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. METHODS: Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. RESULTS: In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.