Changes in landscape and climate in Mexico and Texas reveal small effects on migratory habitat of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

The decline of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in North America has motivated research on the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on monarch habitat and population dynamics. We investigated spring and fall trends in LULC, milkweed and nectar resources over a 20-year period, and ~ 30 years of climate variables in Mexico and Texas, U.S. This region supports spring breeding, and spring and fall migration during the annual life cycle of the monarch. We estimated a - 2.9% decline in milkweed in Texas, but little to no change in Mexico. Fall and spring nectar resources declined < 1% in both study extents. Vegetation greenness increased in the fall and spring in Mexico while the other climate variables did not change in both Mexico and Texas. Monarch habitat in Mexico and Texas appears relatively more intact than in the midwestern, agricultural landscapes of the U.S. Given the relatively modest observed changes in nectar and milkweed, the relatively stable climate conditions, and increased vegetation greenness in Mexico, it seems unlikely that habitat loss (quantity or quality) in Mexico and Texas has caused large declines in population size or survival during migration.

Assessing Landscape Change and Processes of Recurrence, Replacement, and Recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA.

The processes of landscape change are complex, exhibiting spatial variability as well as linear, cyclical, and reversible characteristics. To better understand the various processes that cause transformation, a data aggregation, validation, and attribution approach was developed and applied to an analysis of the Southeastern Coastal Plains (SECP). The approach integrates information from available national land-use, natural disturbance, and land-cover data to efficiently assess spatially-specific changes and causes. Between 2001 and 2006, the processes of change affected 7.8% of the SECP but varied across small-scale ecoregions. Processes were placed into a simple conceptual framework to explicitly identify the type and direction of change based on three general characteristics: replacement, recurrence, and recovery. Replacement processes, whereby a land use or cover is supplanted by a new land use, including urbanization and agricultural expansion, accounted for approximately 15% of the extent of change. Recurrent processes that contribute to cyclical changes in land cover, including forest harvest/replanting and fire, accounted for 83%. Most forest cover changes were recurrent, while the extents of recurrent silviculture and forest replacement processes such as urbanization far exceeded forest recovery processes. The total extent of landscape recovery, from prior land use to natural or semi-natural vegetation cover, accounted for less than 3% of change. In a region of complex change, increases in transitory grassland and shrubland covers were caused by large-scale intensive plantation silviculture and small-scale activities including mining reclamation. Explicit identification of the process types and dynamics presented here may improve the understanding of land-cover change and landscape trajectory.