[Value of non-invasive models of liver fibrosis in judgment of treatment timing in chronic hepatitis B patients with ALT < 2×upper limit of normal].

Objective: To investigate the value of non-invasive liver fibrosis models, FIB-4, S index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index(APRI), globulin-platelet(GP)model, aspartate aminotransferase/platelet/gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase/alpha-fetoprotein(APGA), and platelet/age/phosphatase/alpha-fetoprotein/aspartate aminotransferase(PAPAS), in the diagnosis of marked liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B(CHB)patients with ALT < 2×upper limit of normal(ULN), as well as treatment timing for this population. Methods: A total of 389 CHB patients with ALT < 2×ULN who were admitted to Beijing Ditan Hospital and whose treatment timing was difficult to judge were enrolled. Transdermal liver biopsy was performed to obtain pathological results, and routine serological tests were performed, including routine blood test, serum biochemical parameters, hepatitis B virus(HBV)markers, and HBV DNA. According to liver pathology, the patients were divided into non-marked liver fibrosis group(S < 2)with 324 patients and marked liver fibrosis group(S≥2)with 65 patients. The non-invasive models for predicting liver fibrosis was established with reference to original articles. SPSS 19.0 software was used for statistical analysis, and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to compare the value of different non-invasive models in predicting marked liver fibrosis in this population. Results: All the non-invasive models had a certain diagnostic value for liver fibrosis degree in these patients, and the areas under the ROC curve for APRI, FIB-4, APGA, S index, PAPAS, and GP model were 0.718, 0.691, 0.758, 0.729, 0.673, and 0.691, respectively. APGA had the largest area under the ROC curve(0.758, 95% CI 0.673-0.844), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase was significantly positively correlated with liver fibrosis degree. Conclusion: The non-invasive models of liver fibrosis can identify marked liver fibrosis in CHB patients with ALT < 2×ULN in whom it is difficult to judge treatment timing and help to determine treatment timing for them. APGA model has the highest value and can reduce the need for liver biopsy to the certain degree.

Prediction of the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using the model for end-stage liver disease scoring system and a novel logistic regression model.

The objective of this study was to determine the predictive value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACLF-HBV), and to establish a new model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF-HBV. A total of 204 adult patients with ACLF-HBV were retrospectively recruited between July 1, 2002 and December 31, 2004. The MELD scores were calculated according to the widely accepted formula. The 3-month mortality was calculated. The validity of the MELD model was determined by means of the concordance (c) statistic. Clinical data and biochemical values were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis based on which the regression model for predicting prognosis was established. The receiver-operating characteristic curves were drawn for the MELD scoring system and the new regression model and the areas under the curves (AUC) were compared by the z-test. The 3-month mortality rate was 57.8%. The mean MELD score for the patients who died was significantly greater than those who survived beyond 3 months (28.7 vs 22.4, P = 0.003). The concordance (c) statistic (equivalent to the AUC) for the MELD scoring system predicting 3-month mortality was 0.709 (SE = 0.036, P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval 0.638-0.780). The independent factors predicting prognosis were hepatorenal syndrome (P < 0.001), liver cirrhosis (P = 0.009), HBeAg (P = 0.013), albumin (P = 0.028) and prothrombin activity (P = 0.011) as identified in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The regression model that was constructed by the logistic regression analysis produced a greater prognostic value (c = 0.891) than the MELD scoring system (z = 4.333, P < 0.001). The MELD scoring system is a promising and useful predictor for 3-month mortality of ACLF-HBV patients. Hepatorenal syndrome, liver cirrhosis, HBeAg, albumin and prothrombin activity are independent factors affecting the 3-month mortality. The newly established logistic regression model appears to be superior to the MELD scoring system in predicting 3-month mortality in patients with ACLF-HBV.