Correction: Transient response of the Northwestern Iberian upwelling regime.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197627.].

Transient response of the Northwestern Iberian upwelling regime.

The hydrography and dynamics of NW Iberian margin were explored for July 2009, based on a set of in situ and remote sensing observations. Zonal sections of standard CTD casts, towed CTD (SeaSoar), Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) and Lagrangian surveys were made to characterize cycles of upwelling and relaxation in this region. Two periods of northerly winds, bounded by relaxation periods, were responsible for the formation of an upwelling front extending to the shelf edge. An equatorward flow was quickly set up on the shelf responding to the northerly wind pulses. South of Cape Silleiro, the development and subsequent relaxation of an upwelling event was intensively surveyed in the shelf, following a Lagrangian drifter transported by the upwelling jet. This region is part of an upwelling center extending from Cape Silleiro to Porto, where the surface temperature was colder than the neighboring regions, under upwelling favorable winds. As these winds relaxed, persistent poleward flow developed, originating south of the upwelling center and consisting in an inner-shelf tongue of warm waters. During an event of strong southerly wind, the poleward flow was observed to extend to the whole continental shelf. Although the cruise was executed during summertime, the presence of river-plumes was observed over the shelf. The interaction of the plumes with the circulation on the shelf was also described in terms of coastal convergence and offshore advection. The sampling of the offshore and slope regions showed the presence of the Iberian poleward current offshore and a persistent equatorward flow over the upper slope.

Towards operational modeling and forecasting of the Iberian shelves ecosystem.

There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus biogeochemical module (NPZD). In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmol N m(-3)). Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.

Model-derived dispersal pathways from multiple source populations explain variability of invertebrate larval supply.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a bio-physical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March-June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p<0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of -6 to +5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p<0.001, and r = 0.79, p<0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provide meaningful predictions of the patterns and causes of fine-scale variability in larval supply to marine populations.