Leaf Curl Epidemic Risk in Chilli as a Consequence of Vector Migration Rate and Contact Rate Dynamics: A Critical Guide to Management.

Chilli is an important commercial crop grown in tropical and subtropical climates. The whitefly-transmitted chilli leaf curl virus (ChiLCV) is a serious threat to chilli cultivation. Vector migration rate and host-vector contact rate, the major drivers involved in the epidemic process, have been pinpointed to link management. The complete interception of migrant vectors immediately after transplantation has been noted to increase the survival time (to remain infection free) of the plants (80%) and thereby delay the epidemic process. The survival time under interception (30 days) has been noted to be nine weeks (p < 0.05), as compared to five weeks, which received a shorter period of interception (14-21 days). Non-significant differences in hazard ratios between 21- and 30-day interceptions helped optimize the cover period to 26 days. Vector feeding rate, estimated as a component of contact rate, is noted to increase until the sixth week with host density and decline subsequently due to plant succulence factor. Correspondence between the peak time of virus transmission or inoculation rate (at 8 weeks) and contact rate (at 6 weeks) suggests that host succulence is of critical importance in host-vector interactions. Infection proportion estimates in inoculated plants at different leaf stages have supported the view that virus transmission potential with plant age decreases, presumably due to modification in contact rate. The hypothesis that migrant vectors and contact rate dynamics are the primary drivers of the epidemic has been proved and translated into rules to guide management strategies.

Simulation of leaf curl disease dynamics in chili for strategic management options.

Leaf curl, a whitefly-borne begomovirus disease, is the cause of frequent epidemic in chili. In the present study, transmission parameters involved in tripartite interaction are estimated to simulate disease dynamics in a population dynamics model framework. Epidemic is characterized by a rapid conversion rate of healthy host population into infectious type. Infection rate as basic reproduction number, R0 = 13.54, has indicated a high rate of virus transmission. Equilibrium population of infectious host and viruliferous vector are observed to be sensitive to the immigration parameter. A small increase in immigration rate of viruliferous vector increased the population of both infectious host and viruliferous vector. Migrant viruliferous vectors, acquisition, and transmission rates as major parameters in the model indicate leaf curl epidemic is predominantly a vector -mediated process. Based on underlying principles of temperature influence on vector population abundance and transmission parameters, spatio-temporal pattern of disease risk predicted is noted to correspond with leaf curl distribution pattern in India. Temperature in the range of 15-35 °C plays an important role in epidemic as both vector population and virus transmission are influenced by temperature. Assessment of leaf curl dynamics would be a useful guide to crop planning and evolution of efficient management strategies.